New Legaspi Airport Draft FS - PPP Center

3.3 ANNUAL AIR CARGO FORECAST
Using the same approach employed in defining the passenger forecast as outlined in
the preceding section, the forecast cargo traffic at the Legaspi Airport was derived as a
percentage share of the nationwide airport system cargo traffic. Historical data (Table
3.3-1) were similarly utilized to define an econometric model with value of domestic
production as the explanatory variable.
Table 3.3-1 Historical Cargo Traffic (tons)
YEAR PHI NCR Region V LEG
1991 347,117 93,036 1,549 470
1992 381,139 82,520 1,473 444
1993 415,639 92,412 1,825 775
1994 428,204 68,512 2,351 936
1995 488,366 89,791 2,230 939
1996 526,277 108,685 2,898 1,013
1997 678,765 115,356 3,089 862
1998 504,096 97,322 2,419 758
1999 510,630 87,107 2,195 771
2000 553,159 125,872 1,501 428
Under the medium-level estimate, Legaspi Airport is anticipated to handle about 2,000
tons of cargo in year 2015 (Table 3.3-2).
Table 3.3-2 Forecast Cargo Traffic (tons)
Year PHI
Low
LEGASPI
Medium High
2005 840,390 870 1,030 1,210
2010 1,182,300 1,230 1,440 1,700
2015 1,609,190 1,670 1,970 2,310
2020 2,163,150 2,250 2,640 3,110
2025 2,882,020 2,990 3,520 4,150
3.4 PEAK-HOUR AIR TRAFFIC VOLUMES
The design of airport facilities is normally based on the volume occurring during the
peak-hour on an average day of the peak month. Adjustment factors are derived to
translate the forecasted two-way annual air traffic into the design hourly volume.
Using data provided by ATO-Legaspi for the last two years (2000-2001), the peak
month was determined to be consistently occurring during the month of May. The
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