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organisation - the Instituto Gulbenkian de Ciência

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COLLECTIVE<br />

DYNAMICS<br />

Gabriela Gomes Principal Investigator<br />

PhD in Ma<strong>the</strong>matics, University of Warwick, UK, 1993<br />

Post-doctoral Researcher, Ma<strong>the</strong>matics Institute, University of Warwick<br />

Wellcome Trust Research Training Fellow in Ma<strong>the</strong>matical Biology, Department of Biological Sciences, University of Warwick<br />

Principal Investigator at <strong>the</strong> IGC since 2002<br />

We study collective phenomena, such as self-<strong>organisation</strong>, criticality, and pattern<br />

formation, arising from spatial and temporal constraints in physical and<br />

biological systems, with a current focus on infectious disease ecology and evolution.<br />

The central <strong>the</strong>me of our research <strong>de</strong>rives from a conceptual mo<strong>de</strong>l of<br />

partial immunity whose collective outcome - <strong>the</strong> reinfection threshold - un<strong>de</strong>rlies<br />

a phenomenological transition in epi<strong>de</strong>mic dynamics, with practical implications<br />

ranging from extreme geographical variability in <strong>the</strong> effect of vaccination<br />

programmes to <strong>de</strong>stabilised transmission favouring polymorphism in antigenically<br />

diverse pathogens. We are interested in refining concepts and methodologies<br />

by performing specific experiments in <strong>the</strong> laboratory and in natural<br />

populations.<br />

MOLECULAR EPIDEMIOLOGY OF MYCOBACTERIUM TUBERCULOSIS IN PORTUGAL:<br />

IMPLEMENTING AND ANALYSING A DATABASE<br />

We propose to genotype all <strong>the</strong> strains from sputum of smear positive pulmonary<br />

tuberculosis cases with recent methods based on <strong>the</strong> variability of mycobacterial<br />

interspersed repetitive units (MIRU) and variable number tan<strong>de</strong>m<br />

repeats (VNTR). A database that inclu<strong>de</strong>s mycobacterial genotype and clinical<br />

and <strong>de</strong>mographic information about patients will be implemented, constituting<br />

a valuable resource for molecular epi<strong>de</strong>miology studies, transmission mo<strong>de</strong>ls<br />

and applied research on mycobacterial evolution and pathogenesis.<br />

A total of 2286 isolates of M. tuberculosis DNA were genotyped for 90 SNPs.<br />

About 300 strains were genotyped in <strong>the</strong> first year and 743 strains were genotyped<br />

during <strong>the</strong> second year. In <strong>the</strong> last period of <strong>the</strong> project, 1239 more samples<br />

were inclu<strong>de</strong>d. Increasing <strong>the</strong> number of genotyped strains is our immediate<br />

goal and will allow us to infer on <strong>the</strong> genetic diversity of M. tuberculosis<br />

circulating in <strong>the</strong> Portuguese population.<br />

EXPLORING PATHOGEN DIVERSITY IN DISEASE EPIDEMIOLOGY<br />

AND VACCINE RESEARCH<br />

Viruses, bacteria and parasitic pathogens have evolved multiple strategies to<br />

eva<strong>de</strong> innate and acquired immune responses, facilitating transmission, allowing<br />

<strong>the</strong> establishment of persistent and recurrent infections, and often hampering<br />

<strong>the</strong> <strong>de</strong>velopment of effective vaccines. Antigenic variation of immune<br />

response targets is one such pathogen strategy that can only be confronted<br />

with <strong>the</strong> support of a highly specialised research programme combining basic<br />

and applied research. This is <strong>the</strong> <strong>the</strong>me of this project. The team integrates basic<br />

research in infection, population genetics, and ma<strong>the</strong>matical epi<strong>de</strong>miology,<br />

with a range of practical aspects of experimental <strong>de</strong>sign from <strong>the</strong> laboratory<br />

to <strong>the</strong> field. The overall research strategy is to unravel <strong>the</strong> molecular bases and<br />

epi<strong>de</strong>miological significance of immunity in or<strong>de</strong>r to gui<strong>de</strong> vaccine <strong>de</strong>sign and<br />

<strong>de</strong>ployment.<br />

GROUP MEMBERS<br />

João Sollari Lopes (Post-doc, started in April)<br />

Ana Isabel Franco (Post-doc, started in September)<br />

Cátia Ban<strong>de</strong>iras (Trainee, started in December)<br />

Delphine Pessoa (Trainee)<br />

Bruno Ceña (Trainee)<br />

Caetano Souto Maior Men<strong>de</strong>s (Trainee, started in October)<br />

COLLABORATORS<br />

José Pereira-Leal (IGC, Portugal)<br />

Isabel Marques (IGC, Portugal)<br />

Carlos Penha-Gonçalves (IGC, Portugal)<br />

Lounes Chikhi (IGC, Portugal)<br />

Ana Godinho (IGC, Portugal)<br />

Anabela Miranda<br />

(INSA - <strong>Instituto</strong> Nacional <strong>de</strong> Saú<strong>de</strong> Dr. Ricardo Jorge, Portugal)<br />

Ana Abecasis (CMDT-IHMT - <strong>Instituto</strong> <strong>de</strong> Higiene e Medicina Tropical,<br />

Portugal)<br />

Diogo Pinheiro (ISEG - <strong>Instituto</strong> Superior <strong>de</strong> Economia e Gestão, Portugal)<br />

Raquel Sá-Leão (ITQB - <strong>Instituto</strong> <strong>de</strong> Tecnologia Química e Biológica,<br />

Portugal)<br />

Cláudia Co<strong>de</strong>ço (Fundação Oswaldo Cruz, Brazil)<br />

Alessandro Vespignani (Institute for Scientific Interchange, Italy)<br />

Lewi Stone (Tel Aviv University, Israel)<br />

Dirk Brockmann (Max Planck Institute Gottingen, Germany)<br />

Ronald Smallenburg (Grote Griepmeting, The Ne<strong>the</strong>rlands)<br />

John Edmunds (London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, UK)<br />

Olof Nyrén (Swedish Institute for Infectious Disease Control, Swe<strong>de</strong>n)<br />

Marc van Ranst (Rega Institute for Medical Research, Belgium)<br />

Shlomo Havlin (Bar Ilan University, Israel)<br />

Stefano Merler (Fondazione Bruno Kessler, Italy)<br />

Daniele Miorandi (Center for Research and Telecommunication<br />

Experimentation for NETworked communities, Italy)<br />

Mário Silva (Faculda<strong>de</strong> <strong>de</strong> Ciências, Universida<strong>de</strong> <strong>de</strong> Lisboa, Portugal)<br />

Natalia Mantilla (Universidad Nacional Autónoma <strong>de</strong> México, México)<br />

Glória Teixeira (Universida<strong>de</strong> Fe<strong>de</strong>ral da Bahia, Brazil)<br />

FUNDING<br />

Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (FCT), Portugal<br />

Framework Programme 7, European Commission<br />

We compared key parameters un<strong>de</strong>rlying pneumococcal transmission in Portuguese<br />

and Finnish day care centres using a continuous-time event history mo<strong>de</strong>l<br />

in a Bayesian framework. We <strong>de</strong>veloped ma<strong>the</strong>matical and statistical mo<strong>de</strong>ls to<br />

elucidate <strong>the</strong> <strong>de</strong>sign of novel pre-clinical and clinical trials to assess intervention<br />

efficacy both in <strong>the</strong> laboratory and in <strong>the</strong> field. The new <strong>de</strong>signs are being<br />

refined using Drosophila-Wolbachia as an experimental system.<br />

EPIWORK - DEVELOPING THE FRAMEWORK FOR AN EPIDEMIC FORECAST<br />

INFRASTRUCTURE<br />

In recent years a huge flow of quantitative social, <strong>de</strong>mographic and behavioural<br />

data is becoming available, spurring <strong>the</strong> quest for innovative technologies that<br />

can improve <strong>the</strong> traditional disease-surveillance systems, providing faster and<br />

better localised <strong>de</strong>tection capabilities and resulting in a broad practical impact.<br />

IGC ANNUAL REPORT ‘11<br />

RESEARCH GROUPS<br />

40

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