FCCC/CP/2015/7

FCCC/CP/2015/7
35. Global average per capita emissions considering INDCs are expected to decline
by 8 and 4 per cent by 2025 and by 9 and 5 per cent by 2030 compared with the levels
in 1990 and 2010, respectively. This is based on estimated global average per capita
emissions, considering INDCs, of 6.8 (6.5–7.1) t CO 2 eq/capita in 2025 and 6.7 (6.4–7.2) t
CO 2 eq/capita in 2030. 13 Emissions in 2000 were approximately equal to expected per
capita emission levels in 2030 (range: –5 to +6 per cent) and 1 per cent above expected
2025 levels (range: –3 to +5 per cent).
36. Implementation of the INDCs would lead to lower aggregate global emission
levels than in pre-INDC trajectories. 14 The level of global GHG emissions associated
with the INDCs is expected to be lower than the emission level in pre-INDC trajectories, by
2.8 (0.2–5.5) Gt CO 2 eq in 2025 and 3.6 (0.0–7.5) Gt CO 2 eq in 2030. 15 Taking into account
the conditional components of the INDCs would make the upper level of this range 1.0 and
1.9 Gt CO 2 eq lower than with unconditional components only. 16 These figures provide an
estimate of the aggregate effect of the INDCs stemming from the action to reduce
emissions and enhance sinks compared with emission scenarios that are consistent with
action communicated by Parties for the pre-2020 period.
37. Compared with the emission levels consistent with the least-cost 2 °C scenarios, 17
aggregate GHG emission levels resulting from the INDCs are expected to be higher by 8.7
(4.7–13.0) Gt CO 2 eq (19 per cent, range 10–29 per cent) in 2025 and by 15.1 (11.1–21.7)
Gt CO 2 eq (35 per cent, range 26–59 per cent) in 2030.
38. Figure 2 compares the global emission levels resulting from the INDCs in 2025 and
2030 with pre-INDC reference scenarios and 2 °C scenarios. GHG reference scenarios are
derived from the contribution of Working Group III to the AR5 that are consistent with
action communicated by Parties for the pre-2020 period (red). The aggregate emissions
expected to result from the INDCs show a wide range owing to the various assumptions
and conditions specified by Parties in their submissions and uncertainties associated with
gaps in information (yellow bars). Mitigation scenarios for a least-cost trajectory to keep
the global mean temperature rise below 2 °C are shown in blue, with an enhancement of
global mitigation starting today (dark blue), by 2020 (medium blue) or with an assumed
13 Assuming the United Nations 2015 low, high and median population scenarios in combination with
the other uncertainties. In the median population scenario, population is expected to reach 8.04 billion
in 2025 and 8.40 billion in 2030 (see the 2015 revision of the United Nations 2012 population
projections, available at ).
14 Those 22 trajectories are a subset of scenarios from the IPCC AR5 scenario database, specifically the
450 ppm scenarios and their high short-term target (HST) implementations with delayed 2030 onset
of coordinated emission reductions as designed within the AMPERE project.
15 In contrast to the given average reduction, the median reduction resulting from the INDCs below
reference scenarios is 3.0 Gt CO 2 eq in 2025 and 3.0 Gt CO 2 eq in 2030.
16 This excludes an assessment of the conditions related to LULUCF and also an assessment in case
where the extent of the conditional component of the INDC is uncertain.
17 Scenarios consistent with limiting the global average temperature rise below 2 °C above pre-industrial
levels were taken from the AR5 scenario database. Scenarios that follow a least-cost emission
trajectory from 2010 onwards (so-called P1 scenarios) with a greater than 66 per cent likelihood of
staying below 2 °C correspond to 44.3 (38.2–46.6) Gt CO 2 eq emissions in 2025 and 42.7 (38.3–43.6)
Gt CO 2 eq emissions in 2030. Scenarios that follow an economically optimal emission trajectory from
2020 onwards (so-called P2 scenarios) with a greater than 66 per cent likelihood of staying below
2 °C correspond to 49.7 (46.2–51.6) Gt CO 2 eq emissions in 2025 and 38.1 (30.3–45.0) Gt CO 2 eq
emissions in 2030. Given the similarity of emissions under P1 scenarios to emissions in 2015, and
given the similarity of P1 and P2 scenarios by 2030, in this report the difference between INDC
emission levels and the joint set of P1 and P2 scenarios is given. When comparing with P2 scenarios
only, the difference is smaller in 2025, namely 4.8 (2.0–7.9) Gt CO 2 eq, and larger in 2030, namely
17.0 (10.6–26.0) Gt CO 2 eq.
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