FCCC/CP/2015/7

FCCC/CP/2015/7
pricing and taxation regimes, the improvement of green credit mechanisms and the
establishment of specialized national funds. A few Parties noted the importance of
engaging the private sector in this context.
32. Several Parties noted the importance of enhanced international support in the
context of the new global agreement, including its scaling-up, and the strengthening of
the role of and linkages between the existing operating entities of the Financial Mechanism,
including the Green Climate Fund (GCF) and the Global Environment Facility (GEF), and
the Technology Mechanism under the Convention.
D. Aggregate effect of the communicated intended nationally determined
contributions
1. Aggregate effect of the intended nationally determined contributions until 2030
33. The implementation of the communicated INDCs is estimated to result in aggregate
global emission levels 7 of 55.2 (52.0 to 56.9) 8 Gt CO 2 eq in 2025 and 56.7 (53.1 to 58.6)
Gt CO 2 eq in 2030. The global levels of emissions in 2025 and 2030 were calculated by
adding the estimated aggregate emission levels resulting from the implementation of the
communicated INDCs (41.7 (36.7 to 47.0) Gt CO 2 eq in 2025 and 42.9 (37.4 to 48.7) Gt
CO 2 eq in 2030) to the levels of emissions not covered by the INDCs. 9 Aside from various
uncertainties in the aggregation of the INDCs, these ranges capture both unconditional and
conditional targets. Global cumulative CO 2 emissions after 2011 10 are expected to reach
541.7 (523.6– 555.8) Gt CO 2 in 2025 and 748.2 (722.8– 771.7) Gt CO 2 in 2030.
34. Compared with global emissions in 1990, 2000 and 2010, 11 global aggregate
emission levels resulting from the INDCs are expected to be higher by 34–46 per cent
in 2025 and 37–52 per cent in 2030 in relation to the global emission level in 1990; 29–40
per cent in 2025 and 32–45 per cent in 2030 in relation to the global emission level in 2000;
and 8–18 per cent in 2025 and 11–22 per cent in 2030 in relation to the global emission
level in 2010. While these figures show that global emissions considering INDCs are
expected to continue to grow until 2025 and 2030, the growth is expected to slow down
substantially, to 11–23 per cent in the 2010–2030 period compared with 24 per cent in the
1990–2010 period. The relative rate of growth in emissions in the 2010–2030 period is
expected to be 10–57 per cent lower than that over the period 1990–2010, reflecting
the impact of the INDCs. 12
7 Reported emission levels in this report, unless otherwise indicated, include emissions from land-use
change and use metric global warming potential values from the AR4 with a 100-year time-horizon.
8 Unless otherwise stated, ranges indicate 20 to 80 per cent ranges and single values indicate medians.
9 Estimates of emissions in 2025 and 2030 not covered by the INDCs were made by extracting from the
IPCC AR5 scenarios (reflecting the 2020 pledges under the Cancun Agreements) the emission growth
rates of relevant countries, regions, sectors and/or GHGs.
10 The sum of all global fossil, industrial and land-use change emissions for the years 2012–2025 or
2012–2030, inclusive.
11 Historical annual emission time series are derived from gas-by-gas data sources in order to allow for
consistent treatment of metrics, like GWPs from the AR4. These gas-by-gas data sources are reported
UNFCCC inventory data for Parties included in Annex I to the Convention, available national
communication data or biannual update report data, complemented by authoritative global data
sources as used by AR5 Working Group III to estimate historical emission data, including the
International Energy Agency (IEA) and the Emission Database for Global Atmospheric Research
(EDGAR).
12 The absolute growth in global emissions over the period 2010–2030 compared with 1990–2010 is
expected to be 10 per cent lower (median) with a range from 12 per cent higher to 46 per cent lower.
9