FCCC/CP/2015/7

FCCC/CP/2015/7
Figure 9
Global emission levels resulting from the implementation of the communicated
intended nationally determined contributions by 2025 and 2030 in comparison with
trajectories consistent with action communicated by Parties for 2020 or earlier
Source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report scenario database
and own aggregation.
Abbreviations: AR4 = Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change, GWP = global warming potential, INDCs = intended nationally determined contributions.
200. As illustrated in figure 10, global GHG emissions resulting from the implementation
of the communicated INDCs are generally expected to be lower than the emission levels
according to pre-INDC trajectories by 2.8 (0.2–5.5) Gt CO 2 eq in 2025 and 3.6 (0.0–7.5) Gt
CO 2 eq in 2030. 55, 56 Taking into account the conditional components of the INDCs would
make the upper level of the range 1.0 and 1.9 Gt CO 2 eq higher than with unconditional
components only. 57
55 In some instances, the estimated global emissions at the higher end of the INDC target range would
theoretically result in higher global emissions than in the considered IPCC reference scenario. This
can occur if communicated INDC target growth rates are above the IPCC reference scenario growth
rates for the same sectors and gases.
56 In contrast to the given average reduction, the median reduction resulting from the INDCs below
reference scenarios is 3.0 Gt CO 2 eq in 2025 and 3.0 Gt CO 2 eq in 2030.
57 This excludes an assessment of the conditions related to LULUCF and cases where the extent of the
conditional component of the INDC is uncertain.
43