FCCC/CP/2015/7

FCCC/CP/2015/7
mitigation scenarios that enhance mitigation action by 2010 or 2020 will suffice with
annual reductions of only 1.6 (0.7–2.0) per cent in comparison with 2010 emission levels
for the 2030–2050 period.
208. The assessment of end-of-century temperatures is possible under ‘what-if’ cases for
the level of emissions beyond 2030. While this report draws a comparison between
emission levels expected to result from the INDCs in 2025 and 2030 and various IPCC
scenarios, the use of climate models to estimate end-of-century temperatures resulting from
specific post-2030 assumptions (like constant or linear extensions of emissions or assumed
constant climate policies) is considered to be out of its scope.
209. The following discussion is therefore limited to a comparison of the level of global
emissions resulting from the implementation of the communicated INDCs in 2025 and
2030 and GHG emission levels for the same years implied under the 2 °C scenarios.
210. The discussion provides only a snapshot comparison of the level of emissions in the
individual years. Whether or not current efforts are enough to achieve a limit on
temperature rise can only be evaluated on the basis of information on action within and
beyond the time frame covered by the INDCs, including all countries, gases and sectors as
well as efforts to reduce emissions from 2030 onwards.
Figure 11
Estimated global emissions following the implementation of the communicated
intended nationally determined contributions by 2025 and 2030 and 2 °C scenarios
Abbreviations: INDCs = intended nationally determined contributions, IPCC AR5 = Fifth Assessment
Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
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