FCCC/CP/2015/7

FCCC/CP/2015/7
211. Aggregate GHG emissions resulting from the implementation of the communicated
INDCs are expected to be 8.7 (4.7–13.0) Gt CO 2 eq (19 per cent, range 10–29 per cent) and
15.1 (11.1–21.7) Gt CO 2 eq (35 per cent, range 26–59 per cent) above the level of
emissions under the joint set 61 of 2 °C scenarios in 2025 and 2030, respectively (see
figure 12).
212. The emission differences towards least-cost trajectories can be read in at least three
ways:
(a) They illustrate a difference that could be filled by either enhanced INDCs or
additional mitigation effort on top of that currently indicated in the INDCs;
(b) They indicate the additional effort that would have to be mastered after 2025
and 2030, as higher emissions in the near term would have to be offset by lower emissions
in the long term in order to achieve the same climate targets with the same likelihood;
(c) They are an illustration of the higher costs that the world might face in the
long term, given that least-cost emission trajectories indicate the cost-optimality of
increased near-term mitigation action.
Figure 12
Aggregate global emissions due to the implementation of the communicated intended
nationally determined contributions and least-cost 2 °C scenarios
Note: The figure is based on a collective set of 7,296 differences resulting from all
combinations between 48 considered Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2 °C leastcost
mitigation scenarios and 152 estimates of the global aggregate emission levels in
accordance with the intended nationally determined contributions and any related uncertainties
or ranges.
61 Considering both scenario groups with enhancement of mitigation action in 2010 (so-called P1
scenarios) and 2020 (so-called P2 scenarios), which keep the global mean temperature rise below
2 °C with at least a 66 per cent likelihood, as shown in figure 11.
47