FCCC/CP/2015/7

FCCC/CP/2015/7
41. The average annual emission reductions for the period between 2030 and 2050 for
least-cost scenarios that start in 2030 from emission levels consistent with the INDCs and
bring back emissions to 2 °C scenarios are estimated at 3.3 (2.7–3.9) per cent. This is
around double the rate compared with the least-cost scenarios that assume enhanced
mitigation action by 2010 or 2020, which require annual emission reductions of only 1.6
(0.7–2.0) per cent in the same period.
42. Given the fact that GHGs are long-lived in the atmosphere and therefore cumulative
emissions determine the impact on the climate system, higher emissions in the early years
(compared with least-cost trajectories) would necessitate greater and more costly emission
reductions later on in order to keep the global mean temperature rise below the same level
with the same likelihood. According to the AR5, the total global cumulative emissions
since 2011 that are consistent with a global average temperature rise of less than 2 °C above
pre-industrial levels at a likely (>66 per cent) probability is 1,000 Gt CO 2 . Considering the
aggregate effect of the INDCs, global cumulative CO 2 emissions are expected to equal 54
(52–56) per cent by 2025 and 75 (72–77) per cent by 2030 of that 1,000 Gt CO 2 . 18
2. Opportunities for the medium and longer terms emerging from the intended
nationally determined contributions
43. The extent to which efforts to reduce emissions will be sufficient to limit the global
average temperature rise to less than 2 °C above pre-industrial levels strongly depends on
the long-term changes in the key economic drivers that will be induced by the
implementation of the current INDCs, as well as the determination of Parties to increase
levels of ambition before and after 2030. Paragraphs 44–54 below provide general
information on trends emerging from the INDCs that could provide opportunities for
increased ambition in the future.
Participation
44. The INDCs indicate a significant increase in the number of countries taking
climate action, which is often national in scope and covers a large number of sectors
and GHGs. Of particular importance is the increase in the number of Parties that have
moved from project-, programme- or sector-based actions towards economy-wide policies
and objectives. Whereas in the pre-2020 period a total of 61 Parties presented absolute,
BAU, intensity or peaking year based quantified targets, in their INDCs 127 Parties
communicated such targets.
45. Furthermore, all Parties provided information that facilitates the clarity, transparency
and understanding of their INDCs. While the information provided reflects national
circumstances and capabilities, in terms of data consistency, completeness and quality the
information communicated in the INDCs represents a significant step forward compared
with the information communicated in relation to action in the pre-2020 period.
46. The increasing determination of Parties to take national action to combat
climate change together with an increasing national capacity to do so is clearly
manifested through the significant number of Parties submitting INDCs and their
enhanced scope of action. However, problems remain in relation to data gaps and quality
of information submitted in the INDCs, showing that further efforts are needed to increase
the capacity of many countries to plan, implement and monitor their climate-related actions.
18 For a 50 per cent probability of staying below 2 °C, the AR5 (see table 2.2 of the Synthesis Report,
available at ) indicates
cumulative CO 2 emissions of 1,300 Gt CO 2 after 2011. Considering the aggregate effect of the
INDCs, global cumulative CO 2 emissions are expected to equal 42 (40–43) per cent by 2025 and 58
(56–59) per cent by 2030 of that 1,300 Gt CO 2.
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