FCCC/CP/2015/7

FCCC/CP/2015/7
260. In terms of observed changes, many Parties reported that they have observed various
levels of temperature increase in their territories, ranging from 0.5 to approximately 1.5 °C
in the past 50 years. Some Parties referred to observed sea level rise, including to a global
increase of 1.7 mm per annum in the period 1901–2010. Other observed changes
highlighted by many Parties include increased extreme weather, in particular floods and
drought, changes in rainfall patterns and increased water scarcity. For instance, one Party
reported that water availability per capita is now three times lower than in 1960, while
another Party highlighted that annual maximum rainfall intensity in one hour increased
from 80 mm in 1980 to 107 mm in 2012.
261. Future projections were made for similar indicators. Parties drew on a variety of
models and scenarios to estimate changes. Estimates of temperature increase include 1–
2 °C by 2050 and 1–4.5 °C by 2100, depending on scenarios and regional differences.
Estimates of sea level rise include a range of 60–70 cm under a +2 °C scenario, as well as
0.81 m by 2100. Other projections include lower or more extreme seasonal precipitation.
262. Most of the adaptation components contain a description of the key climate hazards
faced by countries. The three main sources of concern identified by Parties are flooding, sea
level rise and drought/desertification. One Party reported that some of the islands in its
territory have disappeared under water. Many Parties highlighted stronger winds and rains,
typhoons, hurricanes, heat waves, sea surges, ocean acidification and changes in circulation
patterns. The high risk of glacial lake outburst floods, in particular in the Himalayan region,
was also mentioned.
263. The vulnerable sectors most referred to by Parties are: water, agriculture,
biodiversity and health. Forestry, energy, tourism, infrastructure and human settlements
were also identified as vulnerable by a number of Parties, and wildlife was also mentioned
by at least three. In terms of geographical zones, arid or semi-arid lands, coastal areas,
watersheds, atolls and other low-lying territories, isolated territories and mountain ranges
were identified in the adaptation components, and some Parties identified specific regions
of their countries that are most vulnerable. Vulnerable communities were identified as
being mostly composed of: rural populations, in particular smallholders, women, youth and
the elderly. Several Parties provided quantitative estimates of vulnerable people or
communities, sometimes using specific indicators. For instance, one Party identified 319
municipalities as highly vulnerable, while another one stated that 42 million people might
be affected by sea level rise due to its long coastline.
264. In addition to climate impacts, Parties referred to the social, economic and political
consequences of those climate change impacts. Many referred to the risk of fluctuations in
food prices as well as to other food and water security concerns, while some highlighted
that agricultural calendars are at risk of being disrupted due to changes in precipitation and
the growing season. In this context, a few Parties also referred to elements of social justice,
highlighting that high-risk areas are often populated by the poorest and most marginalized
segments of the population. A few are transitioning to a post-conflict situation and climate
change poses an additional burden on their fragile state.
265. In describing their high vulnerability, a few Parties referred to their rank in the
Human Development Index or in climate change vulnerability indices.
266. Transboundary aspects were also mentioned, with Parties explaining how some
national vulnerabilities have regional and even global effects. For instance, one Party
explained that it is the home of four major rivers of West Africa, which are threatened by
the impacts of climate change, and that its geographical situation could make it a shelter for
neighbouring countries, in particular nomadic pastoralists, increasing the pressure on river
basins already affected by drought and changing rainfall patterns. Two major food
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