Remaining Life of a Pipeline

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ANALYSIS OF THE PAPER: PROBABILISTIC ESTIMATION OF REMAINING LIFE OF A PIPELINE IN THE PRECENCE OF ACTIVE CORROSION DEFECTS By: MEDARDO YANEZ email: www.reliarisk.com MARYLAND 12/14/2001
Table of Content 1.- Summary ..................................................................................................................................... 3 2.- Backgroun of the work. ................................................................................................................ 3 2.2.- Motivation ......................................................................................................................... 3 2.3.- Previous work.................................................................................................................... 3 3.-The proposed physical model............................... ........................................................................ 4 3.1.- Failure pressure model ..................................... ................................................................4 3.2.- Corrosion Model........................................... ..................................................................... 8 4.- Statistical and Reliability analysis..................... ............................................................................ 9 4.1.- Introduction .................................................. .................................................................. ..9 4.2.- Methodology.......................................... .......................................................................... 10 4.2.1.- Uncertainty propagation (Example)................................. ......................................11 4.2.2.- Stress-Strength Interference (Example)............. ...................................................14 4.2.3.- Sensitivity Analysis.......................................... ..................................................... 15 4.2.4.- System Analysis................................... ................................................................ 17 5.- Limitations of the proposed approach........................... ............................................................ 17 6.- Proposed Improvements................................................... ............................................ ............ 18 6.1.- About the Physical Model ...................... ......................................................................... 18 6.2.- About the Statistical Analysis................ .......................................................................... 19 7.- Conclusions............................................................ ................................................................... 27 8.- References ...................................................... .......................................................................... 29 Apendix 1 : Approach for the statistical estimation of wall thickness loss.... ............................ 31 Apendix 2 : ASME B31G-1991..................................................... ..............................................37 2
Page 1: ANALYSIS OF THE PAPER: PROBABILISTI
Page 5 and 6: see apendix # 2), which is resumed
Page 7 and 8: From the above consideration, it is
Page 9 and 10: 3.2. Corrosion Model Corrosion is t
Page 11 and 12: andom variable with its own degree
Page 13 and 14: C 2 d dRd 2 . T ( Sy 68.95 ) . D .
Page 15 and 16: confidence of our estimation. In se
Page 17 and 18: Sensitivity Analysis Contribution o
Page 19 and 20: of the remaining strength (Pf) give
Page 21 and 22: 1.- Montecarlo Simulation Strength
Page 23 and 24: 2.- Simulation Stress (Pa) Pa rnorm
Page 25 and 26: 4.- Determination of the failure st
Page 27 and 28: 6.- Confidence Intervals Estimation
Page 29 and 30: estimate the radial rate of corrosi
Page 31 and 32: (10) Southwell CR, Bultman JD, Alex
Page 33 and 34: general behavior of the wall thickn
Page 35 and 36: Maximun Likelihood parameters estim
Page 37: υ Sol 1, 0 j 20.. 10000 Es( j) Eo.

Remaining Life of a Pipeline

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