Remaining Life of a Pipeline

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the confidence interval of “Pf”. Finally, it is important to highlight that, despite all the previous considerations about the limitations and benefits of the approach proposed, it can be considered as a very useful tool to optimize the decision making process about pipelines operation and maintenance; but, as most of the tools developed in this area, its successful use will depend on: • The accuracy and relevance of the data to be used as the inputs of the model. • The clear understanding of the probabilistic nature and limitations of the proposed model The misunderstanding of the factors previously mentioned can also lead to catastrophic consequences 8. References (1) Hopkins P, Jones DG. A study of the behavior of long and complexshaped corrosion in transmission pipelines. In: Proceedings of the 11 th International Conference on Offshore Mechanics and Arctic Engineering, ASME, Volume V, Part A, 1992:211 – 217. (2) Mok DRB, Pick RJ, Glover AG Behavior of line pipe with long external corrosion. Materials Performance, 1990; May:75-79. (3) Coulson KEW, Worthingham RG Standard damage assessment approach is overly conservative. Oil and Gas Journal, 1990; April 9:54-59. (4) Coulson KEW, Worthinham RG New guidelines promise more accurate damage assessment. Oil and Gas Journal, 1990; April 16:41-44. (5) O’Grady TJ II, Hisey DT, Kiefner JF Method for evaluating corroded pipe addresses variety of patterns. Oil and Gas Journal, 1992; October 12:77-82. (6) O’Grady TJ II, Hisey DT, Kiefner JF Pressure calculation for corroded pipes developed. Oil and Gas Journal, 1992; October 19:84-89. (7) Kiefner JF, Vieth PH New method corrects criterion for evaluating corroded pipe. Oil and Gas Journal, 1990; August 6:56-59. (8) Kiefner JF, Vieth PH PC program speeds new criterion for evaluating corroded pipe. Oil and Gas Journal, 1990; August 20:91-93. (9) Bubenik TA, Olson RJ, Stephens DR, Francini RB. Analizing the pressure strength of corroded line pipe. In: Proceedings of the 11 th International Conference on Offshore Mechanics and Arctic Engineering, ASME, Volume V, Part A, 1992:225-231. 29
(10) Southwell CR, Bultman JD, Alexander AL. Corrosion of metals in tropical environment – Final report of 16-year exposures. Materials Performance, 1976; July:9-26. (11) Cruse A. Thomas, Reliability-based Mechanical Design, Dekker Inc., New York, 1998 (12) Melchers RE. Structural reliability: Analysis and prediction. Chichester, England: Ellis Horwood, 1987. 30
Page 1 and 2: ANALYSIS OF THE PAPER: PROBABILISTI
Page 3 and 4: Table of Content 1.- Summary ......
Page 5 and 6: see apendix # 2), which is resumed
Page 7 and 8: From the above consideration, it is
Page 9 and 10: 3.2. Corrosion Model Corrosion is t
Page 11 and 12: andom variable with its own degree
Page 13 and 14: C 2 d dRd 2 . T ( Sy 68.95 ) . D .
Page 15 and 16: confidence of our estimation. In se
Page 17 and 18: Sensitivity Analysis Contribution o
Page 19 and 20: of the remaining strength (Pf) give
Page 21 and 22: 1.- Montecarlo Simulation Strength
Page 23 and 24: 2.- Simulation Stress (Pa) Pa rnorm
Page 25 and 26: 4.- Determination of the failure st
Page 27 and 28: 6.- Confidence Intervals Estimation
Page 29: estimate the radial rate of corrosi
Page 33 and 34: general behavior of the wall thickn
Page 35 and 36: Maximun Likelihood parameters estim
Page 37: υ Sol 1, 0 j 20.. 10000 Es( j) Eo.

Remaining Life of a Pipeline

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