Template for HA Research Notes - ISRA VISION AG

ISRA Vision
Valuation
The valuation is a very attractive feature of the investment case. Our
conservative scenario points to significant upside. We have applied the
following valuation methodologies:
• Multi-stage DCF model
• Adjusted FCF
A peer group comparison is not very meaningful as the listed peers are either
much larger and have a different product mix (Cognex, machine vision
systems as well as components) or smaller, not well covered by sell-side
analysts and expected to be suffering from the crisis years (AVT, Perceptron).
DCF yields a fair value of € 26 per share
The terminal value accounts for 70% of the total present value based on a
terminal year EBIT margin of 17% which seems realistic in view of the
company’s track record. Long-term growth of 2.5% is slightly above average,
reflecting the largely underpenetrated market for machine vision technology,
expected to drive 2-digit market growth.
DCF (EUR m)
(except per share data and beta)
NOPAT
Depreciation
Increase/decrease in working capital
Increase/decrease in long-term provisions and accruals
Capex
Acquisitions
Capital increase
Cash flow
Present value
WACC
2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E
Terminal
value
8.8 10.5 12.4 13.7 14.8 15.9 17.1 18.4 17.0
7.1 7.5 8.4 9.3 10.0 10.8 11.6 12.5 14.9
-0.9 -2.7 -4.9 -6.6 -5.2 -5.6 -6.0 -6.4 -6.9
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
-9.0 -9.3 -10.4 -11.5 -12.1 -12.5 -13.2 -13.9 -14.9
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
5.9 6.0 5.6 5.1 7.5 8.6 9.5 10.5 10.1
5.7 5.4 4.7 3.9 5.4 5.6 5.8 5.9 97.6
6.8% 7.0% 7.2% 7.3% 7.6% 8.0% 8.0% 8.0% 8.0%
DCF per share derived from DCF avg. growth and earnings assumptions
Total present value 140 Short term growth (2010-2013) 14.4%
thereof terminal value 70% Medium term growth (2013 - 2017) 8.2%
Net debt (net cash) at start of year 26 Long term growth (2017 - infinity) 2.5%
Financial assets 1 Terminal year EBIT margin 17.0%
Pension provisions and off balance sheet debt 2
Equity value 113 WACC derived from
No. of shares outstanding
4.3
Cost of borrowings before taxes 4.1%
Discounted cash flow per share 26.0 Tax rate 35.0%
upside/(downside) 50% Cost of borrowings after taxes 2.7%
Required return on invested capital 8.0%
Risk premium 5.0%
Risk-free rate 3.0%
Share price 17.40 Beta 1.0
Sensitivity analysis DCF Sensitivity analysis DCF
WACC
Long term growth EBIT margin terminal year
26.0 0.5% 1.5% 2.5% 3.5% 4.5% 26.0 15.0% 16.0% 17.0% 18.0% 19.0%
10.0% 14.5 15.9 17.6 20.0 23.1 10.0% 14.8 16.2 17.6 19.0 20.4
9.0% 16.7 18.6 21.1 24.5 29.4 9.0% 17.6 19.4 21.1 22.9 24.6
8.0% 19.7 22.4 26.0 31.3 39.6 8.0% 21.6 23.8 26.0 28.3 30.5
WACC
7.0% 23.7 27.7 33.3 42.2 58.2 7.0% 27.4 30.4 33.3 36.3 39.2
6.0% 29.4 35.5 45.0 62.2 102.2 6.0% 36.8 40.9 45.0 49.1 53.2
19 Hauck & Aufhäuser Institutional Research