Full colour version of the BP magazine

CLIMATE’S
CRYSTAL BALL
No matter how you look at it, when it
comes to the Earth’s climate, change is
definitely in the air. Nina Morgan finds
out how climate modelling can provide a
glimpse into the climatic conditions we
can expect in the future.
From rising global temperatures to changing
rainfall patterns, and increases in the severity of storms –
climate change affects us all. But how will the climate change
in the future? And what factors will determine it? The honest
answer, says Dr V Ramaswamy, director of the Geophysical
Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) – a US Department of
Commerce-funded National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration (NOAA) lab in Princeton, New Jersey – is
simple: “We still have lot to learn!” But he is quick to point out
that thanks to advances in climate modelling, scientists now
have a much better grasp of how the climate system works.
This new understanding can help when it comes to meeting the
many challenges it poses to our way of life.
Climate modelling involves using mathematical equations to
describe processes in the climate system, and the effects of the
interactions that take place between them. The first general
circulation model – effectively the first model of the climate
system – was developed in 1969 at GFDL. Newer climate models
take many more processes into account, and GFDL researchers
remain at the forefront of the modelling field (see left). “We don’t »
Report> Nina Morgan
Imagery> NOAA
BP MAGAZINE Issue 1 2009 49