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The Big Issue CLIMATE MODELS: FORECASTING THE FUTURE Climate models increasingly help us understand the reasons behind climate change and what might happen in the future. Scientists from the Met Office discuss the benefit of having this knowledge. Climate is something different from weather. The difference is often described as climate being the kind of weather patterns you might expect, while weather is the conditions you get on any given day. However, both need complex computer models to make predictions. There is considerable scientific evidence that the world’s climate is changing and that we are responsible for most of the recent acceleration in warming. Climate models help us understand the causes of climate change and provide the means to assess a range of likely future changes. For example, we know some change is inevitable; but we need to know how sensitive the climate is to greenhouse gases so we can adapt to those variations. Climate projections will also help identify changes which are avoidable if we act to reduce our greenhouse gas emissions. Because the Earth’s climate is highly complex, huge supercomputers are needed to make these kinds of projections. Our climate models represent the physical, chemical and biological processes of the atmosphere, ocean, and biosphere, and how each system reacts with the others. Mathematical equations are solved by a computer programme on a 3D lattice of grid points which cover the globe. Such a ‘virtual Earth’ is used for experiments to examine the effects of different influences – both human-induced and naturally occurring – to explain the causes of past climate changes, and make future projections under different scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions. Limited projections As in every field of science, there are uncertainties in climate projections. Much is still not known about how the climate system works: for instance, we have an incomplete understanding of icesheet dynamics and so, therefore, we are uncertain about the rates at which glaciers will melt and slide into the sea. Projections are also limited by available computing resources, which restricts the number and detail of the processes that can be represented. In spite of the limitations of computer power, we are steadily improving our understanding of the atmosphere and its interactions with the ocean and biosphere. In the 1970s, carbon dioxide concentrations, their warming impact and rain were included in climate models, but not the effect of clouds. Nor did those models capture the interactions of the atmosphere with the ocean and biosphere. Today’s state-of-the-art models include a far more complete and interactive treatment of clouds and aerosols, as well the coupling of the atmosphere to oceans and ecosystems. Further research will see this improvement continue. More sophisticated models are starting to include more of the detailed chemistry of the carbon cycle, enabling the modeller to 06 Issue 1 2009 BP MAGAZINE consider whether plants, soils and oceans will absorb less carbon as warming continues. Future computer models will include refined atmospheric processes and a wider range of feedback mechanisms that may contribute to climate change. These models enable projections of future climate and the investigation of reasons for changes in the geological past (paleoclimate). As information from geological observations fills in the picture, models of the atmosphere are constrained and improved. If the aim is to assess vulnerabilities to climate change and prepare for changes in general, climate models can only go so far. The spatial or temporal resolution required for certain assessments may be finer than the models can currently resolve, and interpreting the results in the context of the application still presents a significant scientific challenge. Added benefits However, climate modelling is not exclusively reserved for policy guidance. The Met Office Hadley Centre climate model (HadGEM3) is unique in using the same basic model for weather forecasting and projections of climate change. The Met Office has extended its forecasting to seasonal, decadal and centennial timescales. In seasonal forecasting, recent developments in tropical storm and wave-height modelling have brought added benefits to the oil and gas industry; and on longer scales, climate models are being used to explore new threats and opportunities to the industry, such as changes in permafrost regimes. For more information on the development of climate modelling and how Princeton University is using it to better understand the nature of climate change, see pages 48-51. ■ Illustration: David Lyttleton
Photography> Bill Bachman BP Faces COFFEE QUEEN Leanne Houghton / Wild Bean Café barista “I was shocked! I couldn’t believe it,” says Leanne Houghton of her National Barista crown. Every year, BP’s Wild Bean Café baristas across Australia come together to battle it out for the title. Leanne’s store is located close to Melbourne airport and on an average day she can make up to 200 coffees. “We get a lot of travellers, and quite a few regulars who are taxi drivers. I’ve seen some fill two loyalty cards a week. That’s a lot of coffee!” This was Leanne’s second trip to the National Barista Competition finals and as well as the hundreds of hours she spends making coffee at work, she also spent around 10 extra hours training with her region’s food service specialist, a Mocopan (Wild Bean Café’s coffee supplier) representative, and her fellow national finalist, Adriana Ivtingioski. “It was amazing to win – all the hard work that the team put in paid off.” Although not a coffee drinker herself, Leanne takes pride in knowing her stuff. “I like it when someone orders a ristretto [a very short shot of espresso], because they don’t think I’ll know how to make it. It’s nice that we can give our customers a good café experience in a service station.” ■ BP MAGAZINE Issue 1 2009 07
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