Boxoffice - October 2016

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been cut more than half—suggesting a different trajectory than the
one they were outlining—they also didn’t note that seven of the
previous twelve head-to-head weeks were up in 2016.
Just before summer’s end, an unbroken string of “up” weeks (starting
the week of the Variety story) prompted Cinema Blend to realize
in headline form, “Apparently 2016’s Summer Box Office Wasn’t as
Horrific as We Thought, Get the Details.” That string continued to the
end of the summer, leaving behind a record August (up 32 percent)
and summer box office that was essentially even with 2015, despite
being a week shorter. The trade press responded with surprise at the
strong summer numbers that should have been evident all along.
While summer is still important as the season when potential
moviegoers seem most available, it is not always as important relative
to the rest of the year. Summer box office has been routinely topping
$4 billion since 2007, but its percentage of yearly box office has
fluctuated. From a low in 2014 of 39 percent—in a year in which
box office was down overall—to a high of 44 percent in 2013 when
overall box office was up and set a record of $10.92 billion, it might
appear as if a robust summer drives the year’s box office performance.
Yet, in 2011, the summer accounted for 43 percent of box office, and
yearly box office fell 3.7 percent.
Indeed, summer box office in absolute numbers often does not
prove predictive of the year. In 2012, summer box office counted for
40 percent of the year’s box office but fell in absolute terms from the
year before by 2.7 percent. Annual box office was up 6 percent and
set another record. Last year, summer box office was up in absolute
terms by 10.3 percent, while the record-setting yearly total was up
6.9 percent to $11.12 billion.
What seems clear is that the summer box office haul varies with
the movies that are being released, much as the rest of the year does.
The key difference this year is that the studio tentpole strategy and
a crowded summer is almost inadvertently providing theater owners
with something they have been asking for a very long time: a 52-
week movie slate.
Consider this year in comparison to last year—a record year at
the box office. Q1 2015 was up 3.19 percent; Q1 2016 was up 12.77
percent over that period. Q2 2015 was up 9.54 percent; Q2 2016
was down a similar amount. Q3 2015 was up 5.97 percent; Q3 2016
so far is up 15.2 percent. Summer 2015 was up 10.4 percent; summer
2016 held even with that period, despite being a week shorter
(without that extra week, 2016 would be up 6.96 percent head to
head). Q4 2015 was up 10.69 percent.
In absolute terms, 2016 is remarkably balanced. Q1 brought in
$2.78 billion, Q2 $2.8 billion, and Q3, with three weeks remaining,
has brought in $2.64 billion—equal to all of Q3 2015. If Q3 brings in
the same revenue in the remaining days of the quarter as in 2015, it will
be nudging up against $3 billion. Q4 2015 brought in $2.91 billion.
Year to date, 2016 leads 2015 by 4.78 percent (roughly $350
million).
The intense focus on weekly year-over-year comparisons, absent
context, obscures more than it illuminates. The expressions of shock
around the industry when final numbers showed that this summer
was really pretty good—and in the case of the third quarter and
August in particular, extraordinary—reveals a remarkable ignorance
of how this industry works. Even more remarkable, it reveals an
ignorance of how facts work. n
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18 BoxOffice ® OCTOBER 2016