FLEISCHWIRTSCHAFT international_04_2018

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10
Fleischwirtschaft international 4_2018
Pork
China's boom appears to have peaked
opened up better prospects for
European pig farmers. This situation
has inspired farms struggling
with financial problems to carry
on. At the same time it increased
the willingness of more efficient
farms to invest. The optimistic
mood in the context of the low
feed prices brought distinct
growth momentum to the North
American processing industry. In
2018 the reduction of the global
pig population will continue at a
slightly slower rate. China is likely
to reduce its stocks again by
15 mill. animals or 3.4%. As herd
sizes are increasing in many
countries, above all in the USA,
the global downsize will only
amount to 1.3%. Altogether the
global pig population will then be
quantified at just under 893 mill.
animals. All in all we are moving
towards a smaller but more efficient
global herd (Fig. 1).
In Russia the state promotion,
in combination with the protectionist
strategy, is bearing fruit. It
remains to be seen whether the
Source: GIRA, adaptation by Belgian Meat Office FLEISCHWIRTSCHAFT international 4_2018
Fig. 3: The volumes continue to increase following the rise in imports by 11% in 2016.
national demand can keep pace
with this development and absorb
the more abundant supply, or
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whether larger amounts will flood
the world market. Since the embargo
entered into force in the
year 2014, the Russian pork industry
has concentrated on its own
strengths and grown massively.
While in 2014 production was
quantified at 2.8 mill. t, it broke
the 3.5 mill. t barrier for the first
time in 2017. The growth curve is
pointing upwards in 2018 as well.
The carcass weights, which are
increasing continuously, are an
outstanding feature here.
In 2018 the carcasses will weigh
on average a good 90 kg. The
Russian production system is
permanently expanding its capacities,
gaining points through a
higher degree of efficiency and
profiting from low feed prices.
Furthermore the relatively
stronger Rouble is cutting the
comparative costs of imports
serving for pig production. The
large conglomerates are investing
strongly. In the Kursk region for
example, Miratorg is investing
$1.2 bn. in the annual production
of 4.5 mill. piglets. Cherkizovo has
invested in new farms in
Voronezh and expanded its capacity
by 13%.
The firm Agroeco, also based in
the Voronezh region, constructed
six new complexes in the past year.
And last but not least Rusagro
should be mentioned.
They have topped up their
capacity in the Tambov region by
35,000 t (Fig. 2).
However, all this cannot hide
the fact that the African Swine
Fever is hanging over the pork
industry like the sword of Damocles.
Extreme vigilance is necessary,
for the virus is spreading ever
further throughout Eastern Europe
and Russia and heading
unstoppably for Western Europe.
Production has increased
Last year some 1,425 mill. pigs
were slaughtered worldwide.
Global pork production increased
by around 1% to 116mill. t. This
trend will continue in a slightly
higher form in 2018: +1.3% to
118mill. t.
The fact is that the herds are
characterised by a higher productivity
rate. The average weight of
the carcasses is also increasing
permanently (+0.4%/year). In
2017 a global carcass weight of
82 kg per slaughter swine was
calculated. The trend is rising. The
industry is in a very dynamic state
and is responding by topping up
capacity. The production stage is
moving with the times and increasing
the supply of raw materials
for the finishing farms accordingly.
The further vertical coordination
and integration is also
having a positive effect on pork
production. Export business will
play a key role for future developments
in the industry.
In the global context pork consumption
is increasing. A plus of
1% was noted already in 2017,