FLEISCHWIRTSCHAFT international_04_2018

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8
Fleischwirtschaft international 4_2018
Pork
China‘s boom appears to have peaked
The global pork industry barometer indicates calm and sound growth for 2018
The world economy can look back
on asuccessful year 2017.Ona
global basis the gross domestic
product (GDP) grew by 3.6%. With
few exceptions, most countries have
overcome the recession and in
advanced national economies
economic growth was boosted. In
2018 the economy will pick up
distinctly in many emerging
economies, while the upswing in
established economies is set to
weaken alittle. Altogether the
worldwide GDP is likely to grow by
3.7%, and the meat industry too will
profit from this.
By René Maillard
Looking back over aperiod of
three years, it can be established
that in 2015 the global meat
industry was dominated by radical
changes in foreign exchange rates,
above all by the strong US Dollar.
In the following year the industry
was subjected to tough price
competition that was brought
about by clear increases in the
volumes of poultry and pork on
the growing world market. For
2017/2018 the industry barometer
Source:GIRA, adaptation by Belgian Meat Office FLEISCHWIRTSCHAFT international 4_2018
Fig. 2: Russia is expectedtoincreasethe volume of its pork production
permanentlyfrom2006 to 2022.
Source: GIRA, adaptation by Belgian Meat Office FLEISCHWIRTSCHAFT international 4_2018
Fig. 1: The restructuring of China’spig farming is downsizing global stocks.
forecasts calm, sound growth that
will be driven by firm import
demand from China. An increase
in production is expected worldwide
for all types of meat and this
will be set against increased demand.
The meat industry profits from
the growing world population that
has higher income levels at its
disposal and is increasingly consuming
proteins of animal origin.
On the other hand, the industry is
ever more becoming the focus of
criticism in society,particularly in
the richer,industrialised countries.
Furthermore vegetarianism,
veganism and flexitarism movements
are on the advance.
The low feed prices supported
the meat industry in 2017 too. In
2018 prices are only likely to increase
slightly –atany rate up to
the next harvest.
The global pork market
One factor stands out particularly
clearly in an analysis of the global
pork market –in2017 producer
prices for pork dipped dramatically
by 14.8% by comparison with
the previous year due to the turbulences
in China. Ayear before,
China was still being celebrated as
the lifeline for global producer
prices because of the exceptionally
high import volumes of pork. The
peak of the probably unique China
boom of 2016 appears to have
passed. In 2018 the global producer
prices are expected to remain
under pressure and this
time too it will be the Middle
Kingdom that tips the scales. Pig
herds worldwide shrank with a
moderate cutback of 1.8% to
905 Mill. animals in 2017.The
(mainly) government-steered
restructuring measures in China
that downsized the stocks by
comparison with the year before
by 16.1 Mill. to 435 Mill. animals, a
drop of 3.6%, had amajor impact.
Because the People’s Republic is
home to just under half of the
global pig population, effects of
this are naturally felt around the
world.
With 147.2 mill. animals, Europe
represents agood 16%ofthe
global pig population, followed by
the USA with 71.4 mill. animals (=
8%). The depletion of the European
pig population was stopped
temporarily in 2017.
The rise in demand from China
the year before had apositive
effect on world prices and also