Infrastructure Investments in Renewable Energy - RREEF Real Estate

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Multilateral & Govt. Support, 1% Bond, 4% Equity, 11% Source: Infrastructure Journal 2006 Loan, 84% Exhibit 15 Renewables - Source of Funding (Percentage of Total per Year) Multilateral & Govt. Support, 1% Bond, 5% Equity, 16% equity invested in renewables project finance deals in 2008 remained the same. Our outlook for equity investments for renewables transactions remains positive for 2009. Deal Flow – Pipeline Transactions Multilateral & Govt. Support, 1% Bond, 1% Equity, 14% Following a strong performance in 2008, we remain bullish on our global outlook for the renewables project finance sector despite the challenging year ahead. The IEA declared that total investment in renewables is a long way behind the average annual need that would be required by 2030 to prevent atmospheric concentrations of CO2 reaching 450ppm and avoid the worst effects of climate change. 33 The renewables sector is well-positioned to handle the challenges currently facing developers and financial markets as a result of strong government support, a need for energy security and growing consumer appetite for clean power. New developers seeking seed money for development assets however, may have a hard time accessing credit than experienced developers with a proven track record and operating assets. In North America and Europe, tariffs, tax credit and green certificates will continue to provide healthy incentives for new developments. In many countries, feed-in tariffs provide a strong incentive for the development of the sector as they provide more certainty and stability to project cash flows. In countries such as the US, Germany and Spain, there has also been significant tax-driven impetus which has effectively encouraged the development of the sector. 34 Governments in Europe continue to show strong support for the development of domestic resources in their effort to increase the share of renewables in the power mix and to improve energy security. The European Commission has recently set a target of 20% of final energy consumption to come from renewables by 2020. Meeting these targets will require an even higher percentage of renewable generation in electricity. Earlier this year, President Obama pledged to double the production of alternative energy over the next three years to spark the creation of a clean energy economy. The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 includes several provisions aimed at encouraging investment in the US renewables market. The bill underlines changes to tax incentives, cash grants, federal loan guarantees and direct spending. These measures have been welcomed by US developers which have suffered in recent months as a result of uncertainty regarding the extension of production tax credits, a tight credit market and troubled tax equity players. 35 According to Dealogic, the majority (47%) of the project finance renewables deals in the pipeline are in the Americas region (see Exhibit 16). Approximately a quarter (23%) of the project finance renewables deals in the pipeline are based in the Asia-Pacific region. Western Europe constitutes 15% of the pipeline and Eastern Europe only comprises 3% of all project finance pipeline deals. In the near-term, we believe that Western Europe will continue to be the key region for wind and solar renewables project finance, led by Spain and Italy. A few projects in Turkey, Jordan and Poland may also grab headlines this year. 36 33 IEA confirms renewables recession woes, Environmental Finance, May 28, 2009 34 PricewaterhouseCoopers, Renewables Deals 2008 Annual Review 35 Stimulating the US renewables market, Infrastructure Journal, March 4, 2009 36 Kjorstad, John and Rey, Yoann, “Renewables Outlook 2009”, Infrastructure Journal, February 23, 2009 18 Alternative Investments 2007 Loan, 78% 2008 Loan, 84%
Eastern Europe, 3% Sub-Saharan Africa, 9% (a) Total Renewables Deals MENA, 2% Western Europe, 16% Specifically, the renewable fuels project finance deals in the pipeline total $119 billion, which includes Africa and MENA regions. For these projects, 49% of deals will originate from the Americas and 28% from Asia-Pacific. Western Europe and Eastern Europe combined only comprise 6% of the renewable fuels project finance pipeline. The wind farm project finance deals in the pipeline total $77 billion, including Africa and MENA regions. The majority (45%) of the global wind farm project finance pipeline also stems from the Americas region followed closely by 34% from Western Europe and 15% from Asia-Pacific. The global infrastructure project finance pipeline offers a strong deal flow with over $2.9 trillion in deal volume. The renewables sector currently comprises 7% of total infrastructure deal volume which is $196 million (see Exhibit 17). In Asia-Pacific, the renewables sector constitutes 6% of the regional pipeline infrastructure deal volume which is equivalent to approximately $45 billion. India, Myanmar, Australia, Laos and New Zealand are the largest renewable markets in the region, totaling 65% of the regional renewables project finance pipeline. US$ Trillions Americas, 47% Asia-Pac, 23% Source: Dealogic Projectw are June 2009 and RREEF Research 3.5 3 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 Exhibit 16 Project Finance Pipeline by Region MENA, 3% Eastern Europe, 2% Sub-Saharan Africa, 14% Western Europe, 4% (b) Renewable Fuels Deals Exhibit 17 Pipeline Infrastructure Project Finance Deals by Sector Global Asia-Pacific Americas Europe Note: Global includes all regions including Africa and MENA Source: Dealogic Projectw are June 2009 and RREEF Research Americas, 49% MENA, 1% Eastern Europe, 4% Sub-Saharan Africa, 1% Western Europe, Asia-Pac, 28% 34% (c) Wind Farm Deals Renewable fuel + Wind Farm In the Americas, the renewables sector comprises 12% of the regional project finance pipeline at $94 billion. The US, Canada, Chile, Brazil and Argentina are the largest infrastructure investment markets in the Americas region (totaling 79%). We believe that the first year of the Obama presidency and the December 2009 UN Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen will set the context for the sector’s development for the next few years. Alternative Investments 19 Waste Telecoms Water & sewage Industrial Other Infrastructure Social Infrastructure Petrochemical Power Oil & Gas Transport Americas, 45% As ia-Pac, 15%
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Infrastructure Investments in Renewable Energy - RREEF Real Estate

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