Smart Industry 2/2018

Smart lifestyle Interview: Toby Walsh
We seem to be in the middle of what
you could almost call an AI bubble.
Countless companies are finding
ways to squeeze “AI” and “machine
learning” into their descriptions to
gain investment and clients and the
Internet is awash with companies offering
“smart services” for almost any
problem. But AI has been around for
quite a while, so what’s all the fuss
about?
TW: There are four exponentials
that together mean we’re making
real progress on the goal of building
intelligent machines. First, the doubling
every two years or so of compute
power, otherwise known as
Moore’s Law. Second, there’s a similar
doubling in data, which is helping
support much of what we do
today in AI via machine learning. Of
course, the Internet of Things is only
going to add to that trend! Third,
we’ve had a doubling again every
two years or so in the performance
of some of our algorithms. Deep
learning is a case in point. And the
fourth exponential is in the amount
of money flowing into the field. This
is also doubling every two years. Put
all of these in a pot and you have a
recipe for progress.
Are we actually getting ahead of
ourselves here, or could we be closer
to general machine intelligence
than we think?
TW: No, artificial general intelligence,
or AGI, is still a long way away; 50 to
100 years, if you ask most of my colleagues,
or perhaps even longer. We
have only made progress on building
narrow intelligence.
There was a time back in the ’80s and
90s where AI was almost a dirty word.
TW: Well, it’s nice to come back into
fashion again. There was some overpromise
in the ’80s that led to a bit
of a backlash. But this time, we’re
having a real impact on real problems
so I’m not too worried about
another AI winter.
Some people say that we have
reached a point in the last five years
that is akin to the “primordial soup”
for AI. If this is the case what are the
key ingredients that have allowed AI
to thrive?
68
Artificial General
Intelligence is
still a 100 years
away. We have
only made
progress on
building narrow
intelligence.
*Toby Walsh
is often called the
“rock star of AI.” He
works as a professor at
the University of New
South Wales and is a
fellow of the Australia
Academy of Science.
As a leading voice
in the discussion
about killer robots,
he has been asked
to speak before the
UN in New York and
Geneva. This interview
was conducted by
Dale Rickert, Portfolio
Director at Industry of
Things World in Berlin.
TW: Compute power, data, and better
algorithms!
What for you is the most exciting current
development in your field?
TW: It’s hard to pick on one area as AI
is having so much impact on so many
aspects of our lives. It really will be like
electricity in this respect. But if I had
to pick one, it would be the impact it
is starting to have on health care.
What advice would you have for a
manufacturing company looking at
injecting some machine intelligence
into their operations?
TW: Don’t start too big. Start small.
Don’t start on a critical path. Look perhaps
to help strategic decision-making
first before you go into the operational.
If you could give advice to manufacturing
companies on how to approach
the three most important
aspects of their operations, what
would they be?
TW: Business models and market
strategy, human vs machine roles
and skills, and social corporate
responsibility. Take the savings
from AI to improve your product
or service, not simply to reduce
costs. Look to augment not replace
people. And where you do replace,
look to reskill. And think carefully
about the ethics of what you do.
AI is powerful magic. It’s easy to
encroach on people’s privacies and
other basic rights.
“AI is
Powerful
MAGIc”
A Conversation with Toby Walsh*