Issue 06/2018

From Science & Research
How to
calculate land
use accurately
A sensitivity approach
By:
Christian Schulz, Research associate
Hans-Josef Endres, Head of the institute
Hochschule Hannover,
IfBB – Institute for Bioplastics and Biocomposites
Hannover, Germany
Satisfying (growing) human needs requires efficient use of
limited economic resources. This also applies to the discussion
about the use of available agricultural land, which in
particular bioplastics has increasingly had to face in recent years.
Previous estimates by IfBB - Institute for Bioplastics and Biocomposites,
Hannover, Germany, have already shown that the impact
of producing new generation bioplastics (New Economy such as
PLA, Bio-PE, etc.) based on agricultural raw materials, such as
starch, sugar and vegetable oil, is currently marginal at around
0.05 % in 2017 and probably 0.07 % in 2022 in terms of land use
compared to the global amount of arable land.
Figure 1 shows the development of the global production
capacity of the New Economy bioplastics industry, which currently
stands at around 2.3 million tonnes per year. In comparison, the
amounts of Old Economy bioplastics, such as natural rubber (e.g.
for tires), cellulosics (esp. for non-degradable cigarette filters and
textiles) and linoleum with a total of 17 million tonnes per year
are much larger. Comparing previous land area estimates for both
industries, it can be seen that the production capacity of the Old
Economy is only 7 to 8 times higher than that of the New Economy,
but the supply of raw materials for the Old Economy with a total
of 15 million hectares needs more than 20 times the land area
compared to the New Economy. (Old Economy is not subject of the
considerations, as these bioplastics have been used for more than
100 years and in addition go into applications that are very different
from those of the New Economy).
Despite these differences in size – both being easily marginalized
when comparing to the land use of pastures for grazing of
livestock at 3.5 billion hectares (FAO 2018) –, plastics from the
New Economy yet had to face up to the question of land use. As
previous assumptions to calculate land use for biobased plastics
in the New Economy have always been estimates made with high
safety factors and using a conservative approach, the following
considerations should indicate which factors are relevant for land
use estimation, how these can be made more realistic and how it
affects the already marginal share of global arable land.
In order to find sensitivities and to compare variations in
results for land use of bioplastics, one needs to know how it
basically was calculated before. This approach has been used as
standard method for European Bioplastics’ annual statistic update
until 2017 and is adapted in this year with more specific data of
bioplastics producers, missing until now in the estimates.
Based on process data from literature, experts and own
calculations, Figure 2 shows a sample process route showing
the manufacturing steps involved from the raw material to
the finished product, specifying the individual process steps,
intermediate products, and input-output streams. PLA is used
here as an example, as it is one of the most important New
Economy bioplastics. This is only one representative of all other
New Economy bioplastics, to which this approach is applied –
each with its own process route.
Production capacities and land use
Old and New Economy bioplastics
Figure 1
New Economy bioplastics global production capacities
12 000 000
Natural rubber
56 000
Linoleum 3
5 000
4 000
4 305
1 740
672 000
New Economy bioplastics 1
2 900 000
Cellulose 2
10 978 000
Natural rubber
140 000
Linoleum 3
in 1 000 t
3 000
2 000
1 000
0
2 028
1 697
737
663
1 034 1 291
2014 2015
2 048
757
1 291
2016
2 274
881
1 393
2017
Forecast
2 565
2022
2 273 000
New Economy bioplastics 1
5 800 000
Cellulose 2
1 PLA, PHA, PTT, PBAT, Starch blends, Drop-Ins (Bio-PE, Bio-PET, Bio-PA) and other
2 Material use excl. paper industry
3 Calculations include linseed oil only
Bio-based/non-biodegradable
Biodegradable
Total capacity
Biopolymers, facts and statistics 2018 – 41
42 bioplastics MAGAZINE [06/18] Vol. 13