atw - International Journal for Nuclear Power | 03.2020

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atw Vol. 65 (2020) | Issue 3 ı March 130 Calendar 2020 CALENDAR 19.04. – 24.04.2020 International Conference on Individual Monitoring. Budapest, Hungary, EUROSAFE, www.eurosafe-forum.org 20.04. – 21.04.2020 The 53 rd JAIF Annual Conference. Tokyo, Japan, Japan Atomic Industrial Forum (JAIF), www.jaif.or.jp 20.04. – 22.04.2020 World Nuclear Fuel Cycle 2020. Stockholm, Sweden, WNA World Nuclear Association, www.world-nuclear.org 05.05. – 06.05.2020 KERNTECHNIK 2020. Berlin, Germany, KernD and KTG, www.kerntechnik.com 10.05. – 15.05.2020 ICG-EAC Annual Meeting 2020. Helsinki, Finland, ICG-EAC, www.icg-eac.org 11.05. – 15.05.2020 International Conference on Operational Safety of Nuclear Power Plants. Beijing, China, IAEA, www.iaea.org 11.05. – 15.05.2020 Fusion Energy Conference Programme Committee Meeting. Vienna, Austria, IAEA, www.iaea.org 12.05. – 13.05.2020 INSC — International Nuclear Supply Chain Symposium. Munich, Germany, TÜV SÜD, www.tuev-sued.de 17.05. – 22.05.2020 BEPU2020– Best Estimate Plus Uncertainty International Conference, Giardini Naxos. Sicily, Italy, NINE, www.nineeng.com 18.05. – 22.05.2020 SNA+MC2020 – Joint International Conference on Supercomputing in Nuclear Applications + Monte Carlo 2020, Makuhari Messe. Chiba, Japan, Atomic Energy Society of Japan, www.snamc2020.jpn.org 20.05. – 22.05.2020 Nuclear Energy Assembly. Washington, D.C., USA, NEI, www.nei.org 31.05. – 03.06.2020 13 th International Conference of the Croatian Nuclear Society. Zadar, Croatia, Croatian Nuclear Society, www.nuclear-option.org 31.05. – 03.06.2020 40 th Annual CNS Conference & 44 th CNS-CNA Student Conference. Saint John, NB, Canada, Canadian Nuclear Society, www.cns-snc.ca 06.06. – 12.06.2020 ATALANTE 2020. Montpellier, France, CEA, www.atalante2020.org 07.06. – 12.06.2020 Plutonium Futures. Montpellier, France, CEA, www.pufutures2020.org 08.06. – 12.06.2020 20 th WCNDT – World Conference on Non-Destructive Testing. Seoul, Korea, EPRI, www.wcndt2020.com 10.06. – 12.06.2020 Innovation for the Future of Nuclear Energy – A Global Forum. Gyeongju, South Korea, www.globalnuclearinnovation.com 14.06. – 17.06.2020 The Society for Risk Analysis – European Conference. Espoo, Finland, Aalto University, www.blogs.aalto.fi 15.06. – 19.06.2020 International Conference on Nuclear Knowledge Management and Human Resources Development: Challenges and Opportunities. Moscow, Russian Federation, IAEA, www.iaea.org 15.06. – 20.07.2020 WNU Summer Institute 2020. Japan, World Nuclear University, www.world-nuclear-university.org 18.06.2020 NDA Group Supply Chain Event. Telford, Shropshire, Cvent, www.web-eur.cvent.com 23.06. – 25.06.2020 World Nuclear Exhibition 2020. Paris Nord Villepinte, France, Gifen, www.world-nuclear-exhibition.com 25.06. – 26.06.2020 NuclearEurope 2020 – Nuclear for a sustainable future. Paris, France, Foratom, www.events.foratom.org 13.07. – 16.07.2020 46 th NITSL Conference - Fusing Power & People. Baltimore, MD, USA, Aalto University, www.nitsl.org 02.08. – 06.08.2020 ICONE 28 – 28 th International Conference on Nuclear Engineering. Disneyland Hotel, Anaheim, CA, ASME, www.event.asme.org 26.08.-04.09.2020 The Frédéric Joliot/Otto Hahn Summer School on Nuclear Reactors “Physics, Fuels and Systems”. Aix-en-Provence, France, CEA & KIT, www.fjohss.eu 01.09. – 04.09.2020 IGORR – Standard Cooperation Event in the International Group on Research Reactors Conference. Kazan, Russian Federation, IAEA, www.iaea.org 07.09. – 10.09.2020 International Forum on Enhancing a Sustainable Nuclear Supply Chain. Helsinki, Finland, Foratom, www.events.foratom.org 09.09. – 10.09.2020 VGB Congress 2020 – 100 Years VGB. Essen, Germany, VGB PowerTech e.V., www.vgb.org 09.09. – 11.09.2020 World Nuclear Association Symposium 2020. London, United Kingdom, WNA World Nuclear Association, www.world-nuclear.org 16.09. – 18.09.2020 3 rd International Conference on Concrete Sustainability. Prague, Czech Republic, fib, www.fibiccs.org 16.09. – 18.09.2020 International Nuclear Reactor Materials Reliability Conference and Exhibition. New Orleans, Louisiana, USA, EPRI, www.snetp.eu 21.09.-25.09.2020 64 th IAEA General Conference. Vienna, Austria, International Atomic Energy Agency IAEA, www.iaea.org 28.09. – 01.10.2020 NPC 2020 International Conference on Nuclear Plant Chemistry. Antibes, France, SFEN Société Française d’Energie Nucléaire, www.sfen-npc2020.org 28.09. – 02.10.2020 Jahrestagung 2020 – Fachverband Strahlenschutz und Entsorgung. Aachen, Germany, Fachverband für Strahlenschutz, www.fs-ev.org 30.09. – 03.10.2020 Nuclear Energy: Challenges and Prospects. Sochi, Russia, Pocatom, www.nsconf2020.ru 12.10. – 17.10.2020 FEC 2020 – 28 th IAEA Fusion Energy Conference. Nice, France, IAEA, www.iaea.org 19.10. – 23.10.2020 International Conference on the Management of Naturally Occurring Radioactive Materials (NORM) in Industry. Vienna, Austria, IAEA, www.iaea.org 26.10. – 30.10.2020 NuMat 2020 – 6 th Nuclear Materials Conference. Gent, Belgium, IAEA, www.iaea.org 27.10. – 29.10.2020 enlit (former European Utility Week and POWERGEN Europe). Milano, Italy, www.powergeneurope.com 02.11. – 06.11.2020 International Nuclear Reactor Materials Reliability Conference and Exhibition. New Orleans, Louisiana, EPRI, www.custom.cvent.com 09.11. – 13.11.2020 International Conference on Radiation Safety: Improving Radiation Protection in Practice. Vienna, Austria, IAEA, www.iaea.org 24.11. – 26.11.2020 ICOND 2020 – 9 th International Conference on Nuclear Decommissioning. Aachen, Germany, AiNT, www.icond.de 07.12. – 10.12.2020 SAMMI 2020 – Specialist Workshop on Advanced Measurement Method and Instrumentation for enhancing Severe Accident Management in an NPP addressing Emergency, Stabilization and Long-term Recovery Phases. Fukushima, Japan, NEA, www.sammi-2020.org 17.12. – 18.12.2020 ICNESPP 2020 – 14. International Conference on Nuclear Engineering Systems and Power Plants. Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, WASET, www.waset.org This is not a full list and may be subject to change. Calendar
atw Vol. 65 (2020) | Issue 3 ı March The Future of Nuclear: The Role of Nuclear in the Upcoming Global Energy Transition Hans-Wilhelm Schiffer 1 Introduction The paper presents the main findings, which the World Energy Council (the Council) presented in a paper on The Future of Nuclear: Diverse Harmonies in the Energy Transition with contributions from the World Nuclear Association and the Paul Scherrer Institute. In this report, the future of nuclear is described through the lens of the Council´s World Energy Scenarios archetype framework – Modern Jazz, Unfinished Symphony and Hard Rock – in three plausible, alternative pathways for the future development of the sector. This report also describes implications for the role of nuclear energy in the global energy transition. Nuclear energy could take three different pathways within the upcoming decades. In the main part of this paper – following a brief section on the current role of nuclear in the global energy supply (Chapter 2) – the characteristics of the three scenarios including the methodology underlying their quantification (Chapter 3), and the key findings of the identified future pathways (Chapter 4) are explained. Chapter 5 deals with a comparison of the global results of the EIA´s International Energy Outlook 2019 (U.S. Energy Information Administration, September 2019) and the IEA´s World Energy Outlook 2019 (International Energy Agency, November 2019). A conclusion is presented in Chapter 6. 2 Current role of nuclear energy in global energy supply Global electricity generation increased fivefold compared to the level in 1971 to 26,615 TWh in 2018. 63 % of the growth recorded during this period was covered by fossil fuels, 25 % by renewable energies and 12 % by nuclear energy. As a result, the energy mix in global electricity generation has changed as follows: The share of fossil energies in total electricity generation has decreased from 74 % in 1971 to 65 % in 2018. This decline was compensated for by an increase in the share of nuclear energy from 2 % to 10 % and of renewable energies from 24 % to 25 % (Figure 1). In the 1970s and 1980s, nuclear power plants were heavily expanded. The number of plants in operation worldwide had quintupled from 84 in 1970 to 420 in 1989. Since then, there has only been a slight increase – to 449 plants in operation by December 2019 with a capacity of around 400 gigawatts (GW). Correspondingly, electricity generation based on nuclear energy increased from 1970 to 1990 with annual growth rates of 17.5 %. This was followed by a significant slowdown in the average growth rates to 2.6 % per year in the decade from 1990 to 2000. Since 2000, electricity generation based on nuclear energy has stagnated. In 2018, it amounted to around 2,700 TWh. The nuclear power capacities are installed in 31 countries. The installed capacity is mainly concentrated on countries in North America (29 %), Western Europe (28 %), Asia (28 %), Eastern Europe including Russia (14 %) and to a lesser extent in South America (< 1 %) and the Middle East / Africa (< 1 %). The United States leads the ranking of states according to the number of nuclear power plants with 96 plants, followed by France with 58 plants, China with 48 plants and Russia with 36 plants. 52 nuclear power plants are under construction, including nine in China, seven in India, six in Russia, and four each in South Korea and UAE. In addition to Turkey, Belarus and Bangladesh, the UAE belong to the new nuclear energy states, i.e. the countries in which nuclear power plants have not yet been connected to the grid, but are now under construction. The contribution of nuclear energy to electricity generation is very different in the countries that use nuclear energy. There is a range from 2 % in Iran to 72 % in France (Figure 2). | Fig. 1. World Electricity Production by Energy Source in TWh. Source: IAEA | Fig. 2. Share of nuclear power in total electricity generation 2018. Source: H.-W. Schiffer based on World Nuclear Association, London, August 2019 The age of the existing nuclear power plants extends over a period of half a century. Corresponding to the focus of the commissioning of nuclear power plants in the 1970s and 1980s, the age group 30 to 40 is the most populated. A good 200 plants and thus almost half of the reactors in operation can be assigned to this category. Just under 100 plants are younger than 20 years, about 50 plants are between 20 and 30 years old and almost 100 plants are older than 40 years (Figure 3). 131 FEATURE | MAJOR TRENDS IN ENERGY POLICY AND NUCLEAR POWER Feature The Future of Nuclear: The Role of Nuclear in the Upcoming Global Energy Transition ı Hans-Wilhelm Schiffer
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atw - International Journal for Nuclear Power | 03.2020

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