Baby & Kid Store November 2020

Economy About Us
‘Signs point to Turkish
economy on road to recovery’
After expected contraction of 3.5% this year, growth of 5% foreseen next year in
Turkey, says EBRD’s Roger Kelly
Roger Kelly, lead regional economist of the
European Bank for
Reconstruction and Development (EBRD)
Leading indicators suggest the Turkish economy has started to
recover and the economy is set to bounce back 5% in 2021, according
to Roger Kelly, lead regional economist of the European
Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD).
Noting that like all the economies, Turkey’s economy has been
hit by the pandemic, Kelly told Anadolu Agency on Thursday:
“We expect the economy to contract by 3.5% this year and
growth of 5% next year. Of course, given the circumstances these
forecasts are subject to greater than usual uncertainty.”
He added: “Certainly leading indicators suggest that the
economy has started to recover and our forecast assumes that
the pickup that we have seen so far in the second half of 2020
continues. Turkey is a consumption-driven economy and tends
to recover quickly, which is why we have a solid growth forecast
for 2021.”
Noting the importance of macroeconomic stability, he said:
“The fact that the Central Bank recently increased rates for the
first time in two years is hopefully a sign of a renewed focus on
macroeconomic stability.”
He said that the main risk at present is that the global economy
is hit by a serious second wave of the pandemic, with associated
social distancing measures.
“This would be a huge setback to the gradual normalization of
activity we assume in Turkey, hitting both domestic and external
demand,” he explained.
But he added that the “crisis presents opportunities to the
Turkish economy in the form of trade deflection as firms seek to
shorten their supply chains.”
“Turkey’s geographical location and flexible manufacturing base
should enable it to benefit from near-shoring, particularly with
the EU,” he said.
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