The Garage 343

INDUSTRYNEWS
Industry insight
MOTs
IN THE POST-PANDEMIC ERA
Bill Fennell, The Motor Ombudsman’s
Chief Ombudsman and Managing Director,
looks at some of the key factors affecting MOTs
in the post-pandemic era.
MOTs have been a staple source of revenue and footfall for garages
and workshops since the 1960s. However, with the recent decline in
new car registrations and changes brought about by the pandemic,
this is all having an underlying impact on the short and longer-term
trajectory for MOT demand.
Some of the key factors influencing the testing sphere for the
remainder of 2022 and beyond, are as follows:
New car registrations have fallen by around
two million since 2019
The pandemic and ensuing parts shortages have led to a decline in
annual UK new car registrations. In 2019, it was 2.3 million, in 2020
this dropped to 1.63 million, and to 1.64 million in 2021. The latest
figures for August 2022 year-to-date show a similar picture in that
new car registrations in the UK are 35% down on 2019 at about
983,000, and are forecast to end the year once again at around
1.6 million. The result of this is a combined drop of circa 2.1 million
registrations over a three-year period relative to the annual figure
seen in 2019 and before.
The effect of this is that, between 2023 and 2025, MOT stations
will see a corresponding fall in throughput in three to six-year-old
vehicles requiring their test. On the assumption of a maximum
chargeable figure of £54.85 per test, this equates to potential lost
revenue of around £115 million for businesses nationwide, which is
not an insignificant sum.
Recent industry estimates point to a slight increase in new car
registrations to nearly 1.9 million for 2023, as the automotive sector
continues to grapple with the strain of the cost of living crisis and
ongoing semiconductor chip issues. On a positive note however,
this means that footfall at MOT stations could start making a small
recovery in 2026.
Electric vehicle (EV) ownership is increasing
As with hybrids, pure electric vehicles (EVs) have witnessed a
notable growth in popularity in recent years. For example, in 2019,
37,850 new pure battery electric vehicles took to UK roads, a 144%
increase on the year before. This has since jumped to 108,205 in
2020 and to 190,727 units in 2021, with close to 137,500 already
registered in the first eight months of 2022. This means that,
EVs from the “class of 2019” will require their first MOT this year,
although in small numbers. From 2023 onwards however, a larger
proportion of battery-powered cars will require an MOT, and we
expect this trend to continue going forward.
Staying on the subject of EV MOTs, it has been interesting to
read that, following a recent analysis of 50 million Driver and
Vehicle Standards Agency (DVSA) testing records for the period
2019 to 2021 by two separate organisations, the jury remains out
as to whether EVs are in fact, more or less likely to fail their first
MOT compared to petrol, hybrid or diesel models. One school of
thought is that, because EVs are subject to fewer checks than their
internal combustion engine (ICE)-propelled counterparts – due to
the absence of emissions and other components, such as catalytic
6 THE GARAGE
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