EIF-B_Where We Come From

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LAND VALUES said farm land values are at a plateau. “While positive influences were more prominent at the beginning of the year, negative pressures are building as we approach 2024. Barring any unusual activity in the land markets, we may see the curve start to decline in the next year or so,” she said. And although the land market is likely to face declines in the short run, Chandio doesn’t foresee a sudden collapse of the agricultural land markets in the near future. “There have been three ‘golden’ eras for Iowa land values over the past 100 years,” Chandio said. “The first one ended in a long, drawn-out decline in land values from 1921 to 1933, the second golden era ended with a sudden collapse from 1981 to 1986. The third golden era ended with an orderly adjustment in values from 2014 onwards as opposed to a sudden collapse. <strong>We</strong> are now at the cusp of another great period of farmland values, and if the economy bypasses a recession as planned, we should be able to end this era without a rapid collapse in land values.” n LAND VALUES SURVEY KEY FINDINGS The Ag Economy Barometer led by Purdue University, a nationwide monthly agricultural producer survey, showed that most surveyed farmers expect higher farmland prices 12 months from now, mostly due to strong investor demand which is expected to outweigh the rising costs, lowering prices, and higher interest rates. The 2023 survey reported that investors represented 24% of land sales, which is slightly lower than the 27% in 2022, coinciding with the fall in inflation. Consistent with previous years, the majority of farmland sales, 70%, were still to existing farmers, of which existing local farmers captured 69% of land sales. Farm income, though lower than last year, is still higher than the pre-pandemic levels. At least 84% of Iowa farmland is fully paid for, and farmland is increasingly viewed as a more stable and robust investment option given greater general economy and geopolitical uncertainty. Source: Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) annual land values survey 74 EASTERN IOWA FARMER | SPRING 2024 eifarmer.com
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Page 79 and 80: eifarmer.com SPRING 2024 | EASTERN
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EIF-B_Where We Come From

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