March/April 2024

The Business Pilot Barometer
SALES CONTINUE TO RISE
Many are expecting a ‘difficult year’ but Neil Cooper-Smith, Senior Analyst at Business Pilot,
reveals the retail stats, so far, look more encouraging...
Average sales increased again in February.
It may have only been by 1.2% to 59.1,
but it demonstrates that the big leap in
January wasn’t a one-off. It is also worth noting
that this figure is 25.7% higher than the same
period last year.
Leads have fallen back marginally – down 9.9%
to 126 – but they are still 15.8% higher than the
same period a year ago.
In most years we see both average sales and
average leads drop back in February, most likely
because January is a correction following a quiet
December. Only in 2021 did we see both sets of
figures increase in February, and that was when
demand went through the roof following Covid.
This year, many people are expecting a difficult
year, but so far this isn’t reflected in the data –
especially from a retail point of view.
Interesting picture
When we take the other metrics into account, an
interesting picture starts to emerge. Remember,
when looking at this data, that the current mood
music is one of negativity and concern that 2024
is going to be a tricky year.
First of all, the average order value for February
2024 fell by 3% to £3,054. And this figure is
34% lower than the same period last year –
which itself was actually a small increase on the
previous month.
But this time last year was characterised by a fall
in demand in the volume market, which is why we
saw average order values remain high. The fact
they are lower this year – and currently falling
month on month – suggests that either demand
is driven by distress purchases, or the volume
market is picking up.
The fact that average leads are considerably higher
this year makes me think that it is the latter.
I can understand why some people are jumpy
when we continue to see companies enter
administration. Take fabricator Euramax for
example, which manufactures and supplies
PVC-U windows and doors for sectors including
modular construction, leisure and DIY.
It entered administration following the collapse
of a major customer, and reports reveal that
The Business Pilot Barometer offers a monthly analysis of the key trends defining window and door retail,
drawing on real industry data collated by the Business Pilot customer relationship management system.
Business Pilot uses cloud-based technologies to give installers complete visibility of every element of their
operation from leads and conversions to job scheduling, cost of installation, service calls, and financial reporting.
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profitability had dropped considerably since the
beginning of 2020; for the year ending June 30,
2022, it reported a turnover of £26.5 million, with
pre-tax profits of £129,000. That’s a profitability
of less than 0.5%.
Cash is king
There have been – and will be – others. Euramax
isn’t the best example, because they are a
commercial fabricator, but it does serve to remind
us that we all need to keep an eye on profitability,
and that cash is king.
If we learned anything from the aftermath of Covid,
it was that fantastic sales can often mask poor
profitability, especially as the cost of raw materials
rise. We know that if business leaders don’t keep a
constant eye on this, then it could spell trouble.
But Business Pilot can give you the numbers you
need to keep on top of your business, so there is no
excuse to be in the dark.
www.businesspilot.co.uk/barometer
10 T F MARCH / APRIL 2024
CONNECTING THE WINDOW, DOOR & ROOF FABRICATION SUPPLY CHAIN