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SEA OF SHADOWS 205
recently. What does the water feel like over there? Is this whole thing just
posturing? Or do you think they could be gearing up for a fight?”
“The diplomatic rhetoric is hard-line as hell on both sides of the strait,
Mr. President. China is about a half-inch from threatening outright war if
Taipei continues to move toward a formal referendum on independence.
And the new Taiwanese government is openly referring to this latest
Chinese ballistic missile test as nuclear blackmail. The Taiwanese army is
repositioning land-based missile launchers and recalling reserve personnel
for combat training. And China is mobilizing army units for their largest
military exercise in ten years. The Chinese government says that the
timing is a coincidence, but nobody’s buying that.”
The president nodded. “What about the naval side of things?”
“We’re keeping a close eye on the infrared picture for both navies,”
Brenthoven said. “Our satellites can detect the heat plumes when their
ships light off their engines. So far, the deployed force levels for both
navies look pretty much status quo. No sign that anyone is rushing to put
more ships to sea, but that could change pretty quickly.”
“How quickly?” the president asked.
“It would take either side about two hours to put a significant patrol
force to sea,” Brenthoven said. “And about twelve hours to scramble most
of their frigates, destroyers, and submarines. The newer gas turbine ships
can get under way in about an hour, but the older steam-powered ships will
require the better part of a day to light off their engineering plants, heat up
their boilers, and get up a head of steam.”
“How many ships are we talking about?”
Brenthoven scanned his notes again. “China has what the CNO likes to
call a ‘frigate navy,’ sir. Their order of battle includes about four hundred
patrol boats, missile boats, and torpedo boats, but they have fewer than
fifty major combatant ships. Taiwan is severely outnumbered with regards
to patrol, missile, and torpedo boats but has roughly the same number of
major combatants as China. However, from a qualitative standpoint,
Taiwan’s ships are a lot more modern and generally a lot more mission
capable. If it comes down to a gunfight, they’re pretty evenly matched.
Taiwan has the edge in shore-launched anti-ship missiles, though. And
that could well tip the balance in a major naval engagement. The Chinese
military has concentrated more on ballistic and surface-to-surface missiles
than on anti-ship missiles. That’s going to cost them if they try an
amphibious invasion of Taiwan.”
“An amphibious invasion?” Under Secretary Mitchell asked. “I didn’t
think China had enough amphibious transport ships to do the job.”