Sea of Shadows eBook - Navy Thriller.com

206 JEFF EDWARDS
“They don’t, Mr. Secretary,” Brenthoven said. “According to our latest
assessments, China can only move about one division at a time, and that’s
not enough to seize and maintain a decent foothold if the Taiwanese
resistance is even half as good as we think it would be.”
Doyle nodded. “At least we don’t have to worry about the Chinese
mounting an invasion.”
“That’s not necessarily true,” the national security advisor said.
The president stared at him. “Make up your mind, Greg. The Chinese
either have the amphibious capacity to mount an invasion, or they don’t.
Which is it?”
“They … might, sir,” Brenthoven said. “If you count strictly military
assets, they certainly don’t. But a few years ago, the RAND Institute’s
National Security Research Division published a report on the military
aspects of a China-Taiwan confrontation. The report referred to something
called a reverse Dunkirk tactic. The short of it is, China has a large
number of commercial vessels that could be pressed into service as troop
ferries, along with a few thousand smaller civilian craft, all of which could
be used to transport small numbers of troops.”
“Will it work?” the president asked.
“About half of the military experts say no, and the other half say yes,
sir. A lot of it depends on Taiwan’s anti-ship missiles, and on whether or
not Taiwan can gain air superiority over the strait.”
“So it still comes down to a coin toss,” Doyle said.
Brenthoven nodded. “Pretty much. But if that coin gets tossed, a lot of
people will die, no matter which way it falls.”
The president exhaled through his teeth. “What can we do to prevent
that coin from being tossed?”
“We’re already doing it, sir. Our carrier-based F-18Es are flying
regular sorties over the straits too. They’re sticking to the neutral zone
between Taiwanese and Chinese airspace, but their presence is sending a
pretty strong signal. The Chinese know that Taiwan will gain air
superiority over the strait if we help them. China can’t launch an effective
invasion if Taiwan owns the sky over the strait.”
“Once again we’ve got our finger stuck in the dike,” the president said.
“If we pull the carriers out, do you think the Chinese will actually try
anything?”
Brenthoven shrugged. “The Pentagon thinks an invasion scenario is
possible but extremely unlikely.”
“So we can’t rule it out,” the president said.
“No, sir.”