Hazar Raporu - Issue 01 - Fall 2012

non-Russian gas. The new pipeline will
contribute to both Turkey’s and the
EU’s security of supply. Mr Oettinger,
the EU commissioner for energy
welcomed the initiative stressing that
‘Europe is now a step closer to its aim to
get gas directly from Azerbaijan and the
other countries in the Caspian region.’
TANAP’s scheme falls outside the
EU’s scope, there is no guarantee that
Azerbaijani gas will always be sent to
European markets. However Azerbaijan
has a high interest in European markets
because of their size, predictability and
high value.
Shah Deniz consortium (BP and
Norway’s Statoil with 25.5 percent
each; SOCAR, Total, Lukoil, and Iran’s
NICO with 10%; and TPAO with 9%)
postponed from mid-2012 to mid-2013
the selection of a pipeline route for
Azerbaijani gas to Europe. It is highly
likely that TANAP will become the
basis for the Southern gas Corridor and
take over the functions of Nabucco’s
Turkish section though alternative
routes are said to be still considered.
The main issue is now how best to
connect the pipeline to European
markets.
Towards Central Europe:
An abridged version of Nabucco
rebaptised Nabucco West and downsized
to one half of its design capacity (i.e.,
from 31 bcm to some 15 bcm annually),
and starting from the Turkish-Bulgarian
border (instead of starting in eastern
Turkey) has recently been proposed by
the project’s Austrian management as
one option. This could keep Nabucco
alive as a continuation pipeline, from
the planned Trans-Anatolia pipeline into
the Nabucco countries on EU territory.
Nabucco West will be competing with
two other options backed each with a
consortium member of the Shah Deniz
consortium.
T he negotiations ahead will take place in a
context where SOCAR will be an important
player in the Turkish context. SOCAR is
becoming the biggest international direct
investor in Turkey’s economy. By late 2017,
SOCAR’s investments in the Turkish economy
are expected to reach 17 USD billion including
the PETKİM acquisition and TANAP.
British Petroleum (BP) has become
the first among Shah Deniz producers
to announce its intention to join the
Nabucco consortium. The consortium
has also made overtures to Azerbaijan’s
State Oil Company for possible
entry into the Nabucco-West project.
Logically along the same lines, the
Nabucco project company has proposed
in Baku to start talks about connecting
Nabucco-West with TANAP
BP had previouly proposed a concept
which would have made use of
Turkey’s state-owned pipelines. The
first rationale of South-East Europe
Pipeline (SEEP) was to save on pipeline
construction costs. SEEP would use
existing, nationally owned pipelines,
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