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Part I: Impacts of Climate-related Geoengineering on Biological Diversity Accordingly, this report has been prepared by a group of experts4 and the CBD Secretariat following discussions of a liaison group convened thanks to financial support from the Government of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, and the Government of Norway. The report compiles and synthesizes available scientific information on the possible impacts of geoengineering techniques on biodiversity, including preliminary information on associated social, economic and cultural considerations. Related legal and regulatory matters are treated in a separate study (see Part II of this volume). In addition, a complementary consultation process was carried out by the CBD to seek the views of indigenous and local communities on the possible impacts of geoengineering techniques on biodiversity and associated social, economic and cultural considerations. The study on the impacts of climate-related geoengineering on biodiversity and on the regulatory framework for geoengineering were presented to the sixteenth meeting of the Subsidiary Body on Scientific, Technical and Technological Advice (in documents UNEP/CBD/SBSTTA/16/INF/28 and UNEP/CBD/SBSTTA/16/INF/29, respectively). The present volume comprises the edited versions of these studies. After being presented to SBSTTA, a limited number of additional references have been reviewed; these are identified in the footnotes. In addition, supplementary information on definitions of climate-related geoengineering is provided in Annex II of Part I of this volume, as well as in Information Note UNEP/CBD/COP/11/INF/26, prepared for the eleventh meeting of the Conference of the Parties. 1.2 CONTEXT FOR THE CONSIDERATION OF POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF GEOENGINEERING ON BIODIVERSITY Biodiversity, ecosystems and their services (provisioning, regulating, cultural and supporting) are critical to human well-being. They are being directly and adversely affected by habitat conversion, over-exploitation, invasive species, pollution and climate change. These in turn are driven by demographic, economic, technological, socio-political and cultural changes (Figure 1.1). Protection of biodiversity and ecosystems means that we urgently need to address the direct drivers of change, as well as giving further consideration to indirect drivers. Climate change is becoming increasingly important as a driver of biodiversity loss and the degradation of ecosystems and their services. It is best addressed by a rapid and major reduction in global greenhouse-gas emissions, requiring a transition to a low-carbon economy through changes in how energy is produced and used, and in the way the environment is managed. However, international commitment is currently lacking to reduce future greenhousegas emissions at the scale required, with two main consequences. First, serious and possibly irreversible climate disruption is now much more likely within the next 50–100 years;5, 6 second, to potentially avoid that outcome, increasing attention has been recently given to a range of climate geoengineering techniques, as a different, and as yet unproven, strategy. The early motivation for exploring such concepts was, at least partly, that they might offer an alternative to strong emission reductions; however, geoengineering is now primarily considered by its proponents as an additional action, complementing other efforts to limit the magnitude of human-induced climate change. Assessment of the impact of geoengineering techniques on biodiversity—the mandate for this report—requires an evaluation of their potential for both positive and negative effects, in the context of climate changes that are already occurring and their projected trajectories. Future climate conditions will be largely determined by future anthropogenic greenhouse-gas emissions, in turn largely determined by future mitigation policies agreed at the global level. Since global greenhouse-gas emissions are currently continuing to increase at a rapid rate, the main comparisons made here are in relation to a 2–3 fold increase in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations compared to pre-industrial levels, with associated projected increases in average global surface temperature of 4 Annex III provides information on expert group members and others who contributed to this report. 5 Anderson & Bows (2011). 6 Myhrvold & Caldeira (2012). 16
Part I: Impacts of Climate-related Geoengineering on Biological Diversity around 3°C–5°C by 2100. The consequences for biodiversity of such climate change scenarios are summarised in Chapter 3 of this report. Other climate projections, based on other emission pathways, are also possible. The scale and nature of potential geoengineering impacts on biodiversity will necessarily depend on the ‘baseline’ comparison made. Such impacts will also closely depend on the effectiveness, feasibility and implementation scenario for the specific techniques under consideration. The timing of deployment may also be important. Thus the impacts for a potentially rapid-acting geoengineering technique might vary according to whether it is deployed in the near future, i.e. under ‘present day’ climatic conditions, or in (say) 50 or 100 years time, and whether deployment is made slowly or rapidly. The CBD generic guidance on impact assessment, discussed below, provided a wider framework for this study. Figure 1.1. Linkage between biodiversity, ecosystem services, human well-being and direct and indirect drivers of change. 7 Climate change is one of several drivers of changes to biodiversity and ecosystem services, operating over local, regional and global spatial scales, and short-term and long-term timescales. Any proposed geoengineering actions are superimposed on this framework. 7 Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (2005a). 17
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ANNEX II Part I: Impacts of Climate
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ANNEX III REPORT AUTHORS, EDITORS A
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Betz G. (2011). The case for climat
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Glibert P M. (2008). Ocean urea fer
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Kasperson R.E., Renn O., Slovic P.,
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Moreno-Cruz J.B., Ricke K.L. & Keit
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Artaxo P.,Melillo J. & Morgan M.G..
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