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Part I: Impac<strong>ts</strong> of Climate-related Geo<strong>en</strong>gineering on Biological Diversity<br />

4. Carbon dioxide removal (CDR) techniques aim to remove CO 2, a major gre<strong>en</strong>house gas, from the<br />

atmosphere, allowing outgoing long-wave (thermal infra-red) radiation to escape more easily. In principle, other<br />

gre<strong>en</strong>house gases, such as nitrous oxide (N2O), and methane (CH4), could also be removed from the atmosphere<br />

or reduced at source, but such approaches are curr<strong>en</strong>tly highly speculative. Proposed CDR techniques include:<br />

1. Ocean fertilization: the <strong>en</strong>richm<strong>en</strong>t of nutri<strong>en</strong><strong>ts</strong> in marine <strong>en</strong>vironm<strong>en</strong><strong>ts</strong> with the int<strong>en</strong>tion of stimulating<br />

plant production, h<strong>en</strong>ce CO2 uptake from the atmosphere and the deposition of carbon in the deep ocean;<br />

2. Enhanced weathering: artificially increasing the rate by which CO2 is naturally removed from the atmosphere<br />

by the weathering (dissolution) of carbonate and silicate rocks;<br />

3. Increasing carbon sequestration through ecosystem managem<strong>en</strong>t: through, for example: afforestation,<br />

reforestation, or measures that <strong>en</strong>hance natural carbon storage in soils and wetlands<br />

4. Biological carbon capture, using harvested biomass and subsequ<strong>en</strong>t carbon storage: for example, through<br />

biochar, the long term storage of crop residues or timber, or bio-<strong>en</strong>ergy with carbon capture and storage; and<br />

5. Direct, chemical capture of carbon from the atmosphere and i<strong>ts</strong> subsequ<strong>en</strong>t storage, for example, with storage<br />

as liquid CO2 in geological formations or in the deep ocean.<br />

CDR approaches involve two steps: (1) CO2 capture from the atmosphere; and (2) long-term storage (sequestration)<br />

of the captured carbon. In the first three techniques, these two steps are very closely linked, although the perman<strong>en</strong>ce<br />

of the storage may be variable and technique-specific; in the fourth and fifth, capture and storage may be separated in<br />

time and space. Ecosystem-based approaches such as afforestation, reforestation or the <strong>en</strong>hancem<strong>en</strong>t of soil carbon<br />

are already employed as climate-change mitigation activities, and are not universally regarded as geo<strong>en</strong>gineering<br />

technologies. CDR techniques act relatively slowly: to have a significant impact on the climate, such interv<strong>en</strong>tions,<br />

individually or collectively, would need to involve the removal from the atmosphere of several Gt C/yr (gigatonnes<br />

of carbon per year), maintained over decades. This seems unlikely to be achievable for several proposed CDR<br />

approaches. (Section 2.2.2)<br />

5. There is no single geo<strong>en</strong>gineering approach that curr<strong>en</strong>tly mee<strong>ts</strong> all three basic criteria for effectiv<strong>en</strong>ess,<br />

safety and affordability. Differ<strong>en</strong>t techniques are at differ<strong>en</strong>t stages of developm<strong>en</strong>t, mostly theoretical,<br />

and many are of doubtful effectiv<strong>en</strong>ess. Few, if any, of the approaches proposed above can be considered wellresearched;<br />

for most, the practicalities of their implem<strong>en</strong>tation have yet to be investigated, and mechanisms for<br />

their governance are pot<strong>en</strong>tially problematic. Early indications are that several of the techniques, both SRM and<br />

CDR, are unlikely to be effective at the global scale. (Section 2)<br />

Climate change and ocean acidification, and their impac<strong>ts</strong> on biodiversity<br />

6. The continued increase in CO 2 and other atmospheric gre<strong>en</strong>house gases not only has profound implications<br />

for global and regional average temperatures, but also for precipitation, soil moisture, ice-sheet dynamics,<br />

sea-level rise, ocean acidification and the frequ<strong>en</strong>cy and magnitude of extreme ev<strong>en</strong><strong>ts</strong> such as floods, drough<strong>ts</strong><br />

and wildfires. Future climatic perturbations could be abrupt or irreversible, and pot<strong>en</strong>tially ext<strong>en</strong>d over mill<strong>en</strong>nial<br />

time scales; they will inevitably have major consequ<strong>en</strong>ces for natural and human systems, severely affecting<br />

biodiversity and incurring very high socio-economic cos<strong>ts</strong>. (Section 3.1).<br />

7. Since 2000, the rate of increase in anthropog<strong>en</strong>ic CO 2 emissions has accelerated, averaging ~3.1% per year.<br />

Emissions of other gre<strong>en</strong>house gases are also increasing. As a result, it will be extremely chall<strong>en</strong>ging to limit<br />

global warming to the proposed target of 2°C. In fact, curr<strong>en</strong>t commitm<strong>en</strong><strong>ts</strong> to limit gre<strong>en</strong>house-gas emissions<br />

correspond to a 3–5°C warmer world. Avoidance of high risk of dangerous climate change therefore requires an<br />

urg<strong>en</strong>t and massive effort to reduce gre<strong>en</strong>house-gas emissions, as well as protecting existing natural carbon sinks,<br />

including through sustainable land managem<strong>en</strong>t. If such effor<strong>ts</strong> are not made, geo<strong>en</strong>gineering approaches are<br />

likely to be increasingly proposed to offset at least some of the impac<strong>ts</strong> of climate change, despite the risks and<br />

uncertainties involved (Section 3.1.2).<br />

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