Integrating Southwest Power Pool Wind to Southeast Electricity ...

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generation in the 2022 Non-RES case resulting in a reserve margin in the model which would likely be higher than that which would be seen in reality if this much wind was present. Despite these assumptions, the results of the study provide insights as to the balancing impacts associated with the high wind build-out in SPP and as to the benefits of increasing levels of coordination across SPP and SERC BAs in responding to those balancing impacts. Given the assumptions and the nature of future scenario production cost modeling, the insights tend to be based more on the order of magnitude and trends between results than the absolute value of the results presented. viii
CONTENTS 1 INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND ...............................................................................1-1 Project Overview ................................................................................................................1-1 Report Structure and Relation to Previous Project Reports ................................................1-2 2 REPRESENTATION OF TRANSMISSION NETWORK FOR HIGH WIND CASES ..............2-1 Transmission Delivery Limitations ......................................................................................2-1 Impact of Unconstrained Transmission Assumption for High Wind Transfer Cases ............2-2 Conclusions .......................................................................................................................2-4 3 HIGH WIND TRANSFER CASE DATA AND ASSUMPTIONS .............................................3-1 Wind Data ..........................................................................................................................3-1 Site Selection Process ..................................................................................................3-1 Effect of Aggregation of Wind Plants ............................................................................3-3 Wind Characteristics .....................................................................................................3-4 Reserve Requirements .......................................................................................................3-8 Calculation Methods ................................................................................................... 3-10 Results ....................................................................................................................... 3-12 4 HIGH WIND TRANSFER SCENARIO DECRIPTIONS .........................................................4-1 Scenario 1: SPP Provides all Within-Hour Balancing..........................................................4-1 Scenario 2: Dynamic Scheduling Wind to Each SERC BA .................................................4-2 Scenario 4: Reserves Shared Throughout SPP and the SERC BAs Without Hurdle Rates 4-2 Scenario 3: Reserves Shared Throughout SPP and the SERC BAs With Hurdle Rates .....4-2 5 HIGH WIND TRANSFER CASE RESULTS ..........................................................................5-1 Impacts of Increasing Wind Penetration to Meet 20% RES ................................................5-1 Generation and Interchange Differences ......................................................................5-1 Considerations for SPP Providing All Within-Hour Balancing for Scenario #1 ...............5-3 Comparison of High Wind Transfer Scenarios ....................................................................5-4 Generation Summary ...................................................................................................5-4 Interchange Summary ..................................................................................................5-9 Production Cost Summary .......................................................................................... 5-11 Scen. #2 vs. Scen. #1 – Benefits of Each BA Carrying Wind Balancing Reserves ...... 5-14 Scen. #3 vs. Scen. #2 – Benefits of Sharing Scheduling and Reserve Requirements. 5-16 Scenario #4 – Effect of Removing Hurdle Rates ......................................................... 5-19 Scenario #1 Proxy – Effect of Forecast Uncertainty and Increased Reserve Requirements Associated with Wind .......................................................................... 5-19 Reserve Requirements and Provision......................................................................... 5-20 Capacity Factors ........................................................................................................ 5-23 Unit Startups............................................................................................................... 5-29 Gas Price Sensitivity Case Results ............................................................................. 5-31 6 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDED NEXT STEPS .......................................................6-1 ix
Page 1: DOE: Integrating Southwest Power Po
Page 4 and 5: DISCLAIMER OF WARRANTIES AND LIMITA
Page 6 and 7: EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This DOE-funded p
Page 8 and 9: Summary of average regulation requi
Page 12 and 13: System and Cost Impacts of High Win
Page 14 and 15: Figure 6-6: Individual Coal Capacit
Page 17 and 18: 1 INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND Proje
Page 19 and 20: 2 REPRESENTATION OF TRANSMISSION NE
Page 21 and 22: participants the possibility of a r
Page 23: assumption is affecting specific di
Page 26 and 27: Table 3-1 Wind energy targets for e
Page 28 and 29: site selection could have congregat
Page 30 and 31: Wind Production (MW) Wind Productio
Page 32 and 33: Wind Delivery (MW) 12000 10000 8000
Page 34 and 35: 1. Regulation is required to cover
Page 36 and 37: The polynomial shown in Equation 3
Page 38 and 39: Regulation (MW) Figure 3-12 Summary
Page 41 and 42: 4 HIGH WIND TRANSFER SCENARIO DECRI
Page 43 and 44: 5 HIGH WIND TRANSFER CASE RESULTS T
Page 45 and 46: decreasing smaller amounts. It is i
Page 47 and 48: Coal 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 GasOil 0.7
Page 49 and 50: Figure 5-3 Average hourly generatio
Page 51 and 52: Figure 5-6: Average hourly generati
Page 53 and 54: SBA. More details on these types of
Page 55 and 56: Figure 5-8: Total production costs
Page 57 and 58: The flow chart shown in Figure 5-9
Page 59 and 60: Table 5-10 shows the difference in
Page 61 and 62:
more likely to be turned off during
Page 63 and 64:
Figure 5-13: Average Regulation up
Page 65 and 66:
Figure 5-16: Average Spinning reser
Page 67 and 68:
Figure 5-18: SBA Capacity Factors b
Page 69 and 70:
Figure 5-20: Capacity Factors for S
Page 71 and 72:
Unit Startups Changing the balancin
Page 73 and 74:
Gas Price Sensitivity Case Results
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6 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDED NEXT
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generation characteristics across r
Page 79:
overstates the ability of the syste
Page 82 and 83:
Figure 6-2: Individual coal capacit
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in the 22% to 50% in Scenario 2. Th
Page 86 and 87:
Figure 6-8: individual coal capacit
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able to carry some of the reserve t
Page 90:
Export Control Restrictions Access
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