ÖÖI 8x 3 ^c- 0 - Acehbooks.org

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S U M A T R A . 115
principles of calculation, by which to determine at any time, the probable
future produce of the different refidencies. Thefe will depend
upon a knowledge of the medium produce of a determinate number of
vines, and the medium number to which this produce is to be applied ;
both of which are to be afcertained only from a comprehenfive view of
the fubject, and a nice difcrimination. Nothing general can be determined
from detached inftances. It is not the produce of one particular
plantation, in one particular ftage of bearing, and in one particular feafon
; but the mean produce of all the various claffes of bearing vines
collectively, drawn from the experience of feveral years, that can alone be
depended on in calculations of this nature. So in regard to the medium
number of vines prefumed to exift at any refidency in a future year, to
which the medium produce of a certain number; one thoufand for inftance;
is to be applied, the quantity of young vines of the firft, fecond and third
year, muft not be indifcriminately advanced, in their whole extent, tothe
next- annual ftage, but a judicious allowance, founded on experience
muft be made, for the accidents to which, in fpite of a refident's utmoft
care, they will be expofed. Some are loft by neglect or death of
the owner; fome are deftroyed by inundations, others by elephants and
wild buffaloes, and fome by unfavorable feafons; and from thefe feveral
confederations, the number of vines will ever be found considerably
decreafed, by the time they have arrived at a bearing ftate. Another important
object of confederation, in thefe matters, is the comparative
ftate of a refidency at any particular period, with what may be juftly
considered as its medium ftate. There muft exift a determinate proportion,,
between any number of bearing vines, and fuch a number of young
as are neceflary to replace them when they go off and keep up a regular
fuccefllon. This will depend in general upon the length of time before
they reach a bearing ftate, and during which they afterwards continue in
it. If this certain proportion happens at any time to be difturbed, the
produce muft become irregular. Thus, if at any-period, the number of
bearing vines fliall be found to exceed their juft proportion to the total,
number, the produce, at fuch period, is to be confidercd as above the
mean, and a fubfequent decreafe may be with certainty predicted, and
vice