Tropical Cyclone Report - National Hurricane Center - NOAA

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Table 4a. NHC official (OFCL) and climatology-persistence skill baseline (OCD5) track forecast errors (n mi) for <strong>Hurricane</strong> Isaac, 21 August – 1 September 2012. Mean errors for the five-year period 2007-11 are shown for comparison. Official errors that are smaller than the five-year means are shown in boldface type. Forecast Period (h) 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 OFCL 31.2 44.1 52.5 60.3 77.2 132.7 219.6 OCD5 44.2 84.0 134.4 189.5 269.0 342.0 459.3 Forecasts 39 39 39 37 33 29 25 OFCL (2007-11) 30.4 48.4 65.9 83.1 124.4 166.5 213.4 OCD5 (2007-11) 46.9 95.2 151.7 211.6 316.8 404.3 485.2 56
Table 4b. Homogeneous comparison of selected track forecast guidance models (in n mi) for <strong>Hurricane</strong> Isaac, 21 August – 1 September 2012. Errors smaller than the NHC official forecast are shown in boldface type. The number of official forecasts shown here will generally be smaller than that shown in Table 4a due to the homogeneity requirement. Model ID Forecast Period (h) 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 OFCL 33.4 45.9 55.1 61.6 79.3 144.6 233.0 OCD5 45.8 82.9 131.1 189.0 270.2 369.0 471.2 GFSI 32.6 48.5 59.9 65.4 79.1 135.7 247.7 EMXI 29.7 44.6 56.2 69.2 112.3 186.2 217.8 EGRI 33.4 54.0 72.5 84.9 117.2 201.7 268.6 CMCI 31.9 49.8 64.1 79.2 124.1 193.6 342.8 GHMI 37.5 54.4 73.1 87.5 109.9 161.6 288.0 HWFI 41.7 60.1 68.4 68.9 102.8 151.1 231.9 AEMI 32.0 47.4 58.7 66.1 81.2 144.7 323.0 TVCA 32.8 45.2 53.8 58.4 71.6 123.7 229.4 FSSE 29.5 40.5 48.7 53.3 69.2 102.5 168.9 LBAR 39.3 64.9 87.4 115.8 143.0 173.7 268.7 BAMS 46.8 75.9 102.3 120.7 159.6 216.1 283.2 BAMM 40.5 65.9 91.8 109.2 127.6 173.0 252.9 BAMD 40.8 68.5 95.7 117.4 147.0 208.0 365.9 Forecasts 32 32 32 32 28 23 15 57
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Tropical Cyclone Report Hurricane I
Page 3 and 4:
. Meteorological Statistics Observa
Page 5 and 6: would typically suggest an intensit
Page 7 and 8: Elsewhere, the following inundation
Page 9 and 10: direct or indirect since post-storm
Page 11 and 12: Damage in Mississippi and Alabama w
Page 13 and 14: such as breaching and overtopping o
Page 15 and 16: Date/Time (UTC) Latitude (N) Longit
Page 17 and 18: Date/Time Ship call sign Latitude L
Page 19 and 20: Location Minimum Sea Level Pressure
Page 21 and 22: Villa Clara Location Minimum Sea Le
Page 23 and 24: Location Homestead (KHST) (25.48N 8
Page 25 and 26: Location Oasis Ranger Station (OASF
Page 27 and 28: Location Panama City (PACF1 - 87291
Page 29 and 30: Location Lake Okeechobee North (L00
Page 31 and 32: Location 4 SW Palm City (FL-MT-1) (
Page 33 and 34: Location Dog River Bridge (8735391)
Page 35 and 36: Location Biloxi (BLXM6) (30.39N 89.
Page 37 and 38: Location St. Louis Bay @ N. 2 nd St
Page 39 and 40: Location Unnamed Creek @ North St.
Page 41 and 42: Location Moss Point (MS-JAC-402) (3
Page 43 and 44: Location Minimum Sea Level Pressure
Page 45 and 46: Location Freshwater Canal Locks (FR
Page 47 and 48: Location Middle River @ US 90 (LA-
Page 49 and 50: Location Slidell (LA-STT-005) (30.2
Page 51 and 52: Location Slidell / Eden Isle (111A)
Page 53 and 54: Location 0.1 ENE Griffithville (AR-
Page 55: Location Garden Banks 172 / Salsa (
Page 59 and 60: Table 6. Watch and warning summary
Page 61 and 62: Date/Time (UTC) Action Location 25
Page 63 and 64: Date/Time (UTC) Action Location 27
Page 65 and 66: Wind Speed (kt) 110 100 90 80 70 60
Page 67 and 68: Figure 4. GOES-13 visible satellite
Page 69 and 70: Figure 6a. Select observations of s
Page 71 and 72: Figure 7a. Select observations of s
Page 73 and 74: Figure 8. Storm surge (above normal
Page 75 and 76: Figure 9b. Estimated inundation (fe
Page 77 and 78: (a) (c) (d) Figure 11. Track foreca
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