Tropical Cyclone Report - National Hurricane Center - NOAA

Table 4b. Homogeneous comparison of selected track forecast guidance models (in n mi)
for Hurricane Isaac, 21 August – 1 September 2012. Errors smaller than the NHC
official forecast are shown in boldface type. The number of official forecasts
shown here will generally be smaller than that shown in Table 4a due to the
homogeneity requirement.
Model ID
Forecast Period (h)
12 24 36 48 72 96 120
OFCL 33.4 45.9 55.1 61.6 79.3 144.6 233.0
OCD5 45.8 82.9 131.1 189.0 270.2 369.0 471.2
GFSI 32.6 48.5 59.9 65.4 79.1 135.7 247.7
EMXI 29.7 44.6 56.2 69.2 112.3 186.2 217.8
EGRI 33.4 54.0 72.5 84.9 117.2 201.7 268.6
CMCI 31.9 49.8 64.1 79.2 124.1 193.6 342.8
GHMI 37.5 54.4 73.1 87.5 109.9 161.6 288.0
HWFI 41.7 60.1 68.4 68.9 102.8 151.1 231.9
AEMI 32.0 47.4 58.7 66.1 81.2 144.7 323.0
TVCA 32.8 45.2 53.8 58.4 71.6 123.7 229.4
FSSE 29.5 40.5 48.7 53.3 69.2 102.5 168.9
LBAR 39.3 64.9 87.4 115.8 143.0 173.7 268.7
BAMS 46.8 75.9 102.3 120.7 159.6 216.1 283.2
BAMM 40.5 65.9 91.8 109.2 127.6 173.0 252.9
BAMD 40.8 68.5 95.7 117.4 147.0 208.0 365.9
Forecasts 32 32 32 32 28 23 15
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