Dennis Berglund
Dennis Berglund
Dennis Berglund
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Don’t Don t overtrust your judgment<br />
– Overconfidence<br />
– Overly optimistic, optimistic and our forecast tend to be better than reality<br />
– You should test for more negative and pessimistic possibilities<br />
– Self Test of Overconfidence<br />
• we tend to have far more confidence in our knowledge or<br />
judgment than is warranted.<br />
– For each of the 10 items, provide a low and high guess such that<br />
you are 90% sure that the correct answer falls between the two.<br />
Your challenge is to be neither too narrow (i.e. overconfident) nor<br />
too wide (i.e. underconfident). If you successfully meet this<br />
challenge h ll you should h ld have h 10% misses i - th that t is, i exactly tl 1 miss…. i<br />
<strong>Dennis</strong> <strong>Berglund</strong> - LACA 2009<br />
Alexandria, LA
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