Tata Chemicals - Myiris.com

More documents

Recommendations

Info

Exhibit 1: Q4FY13 Result Overview (Rs m) – Consolidated Tata Chemicals Tata Chemicals Europe/Africa reported revenues of Rs5.1bn, -5% YoY lower than our estimate of Rs5.7bn due to lower volumes. However, EBITDA stood at Rs880m, -21% YoY above estimates. IMACID reported revenues of Rs740m, 40% YoY in line with our estimates. EBITDA for the quarter stood at Rs80m, with margins of 10.8%. However, IMACID’s performance is likely to be impacted in Q1FY14E due to non-agreement over phosphoric acid rates. Downgrade earnings; maintain ‘Accumulate’ with a revised target price of Rs330: We have downgraded earnings to reflect near-term challenges. Though management indicated that soda ash prices in the South-East Asian market have bottomed out, TCL’s re-negotiation of pricing contracts are still sometime away. We maintain ‘Accumulate’ with a revised target price of Rs330. At CMP of Rs307, stock trades at 9.3x FY14E earnings of Rs33.0. Y/e March Q4FY13 Q4FY12 YoY gr (%) Q3FY13 FY13 FY12 YoY gr (%) Net Sales 33,915 34,650 (2.1) 41,968 148,061 137,998 7.3 Expenditure Raw Materials 11,741 13,488 (13.0) 19,217 57,743 56,533 2.1 % of Net sales 34.6 38.9 45.8 39.0 41.0 Personnel 2,841 2,625 8.2 2,796 11,255 9,710 15.9 % of Net sales 8.4 7.6 6.7 7.6 7.0 Other Expenditure 14,627 13,129 11.4 14,593 57,883 48,781 18.7 % of Net sales 43.1 37.9 34.8 39.1 35.3 Total Expenditure 29,209 29,242 (0.1) 36,606 126,881 115,024 10.3 EBITDA 4,706 5,408 (13.0) 5,362 21,180 22,974 (7.8) Margin (%) 13.9 15.6 12.8 14.3 16.6 Depreciation 1,191 1,360 (12.4) 1,378 5,339 5,087 5.0 EBIT 3,514 4,049 (13.2) 3,984 15,841 17,887 (11.4) Interest 1,067 1,208 (11.7) 1,184 4,639 4,270 8.6 Other Income 732 291 152.0 163 1,726 1,228 40.6 PBT 3,179 3,131 1.5 2,963 12,929 14,845 (12.9) Tax 684 803 (14.8) 733 3,154 3,661 (13.8) Tax Rate (%) 21.5 25.6 24.7 24.4 24.7 Adjusted PAT before minority 2,495 2,329 7.1 2,230 9,774 11,185 (12.6) Minority/associate 376 437 481 2,101 2,019 Adjusted PAT 2,119 1,891 12.0 1749 7758 9,144 (15.2) EO items 3,999 506 690.0 (491) 3,754 768 388.7 Reported PAT (1,880) 1,385 NA 2,241 4,004 8,375 (52.2) Adjusted EPS 8.3 7.4 12.0 6.9 30.4 35.9 (15.2) Source: Company Data, PL Research May 28, 2013 2
Exhibit 3: Consolidated Volumes ('000mt) Soda ash ‐ Sales Revision in estimates Tata Chemicals We have revised our estimates to reflect lower fertiliser volumes, prices and pressure on margins. Revised earnings stand at Rs 33.0/37.1 for FY14E/15E, respectively. Exhibit 2: Revision in estimates Old Estimates FY14E FY15E New Estimates % Change Old Estimates New Estimates % Change Net sales (Rs m) 161,015 153,446 (4.7) 170,735 163,305 (4.4) EBITDA (Rs m) 24,474 23,124 (5.5) 26,222 24,993 (4.7) Margin (%) 15.2 15.1 (13) 15.4 15.3 (5) APAT (Rs m) 9,025 8,421 (6.7) 10,025 9,461 (5.6) AEPS (Rs) 35.4 33.0 (6.6) 39.3 37.1 (5.5) Source: Company Data, PL Research Q4FY12 Q1FY13 Q2FY13 Q3FY13 Q4FY13 YoY gr. (%) QoQ gr. (%) FY13 FY12 YoY gr. (%) Domestic 184 154 157 172 177 (3.8) 2.9 660 681 (3.1) Europe 185 195 186 171 164 (11.4) (4.1) 716 786 (8.9) Africa 120 104 103 117 103 (14.2) (12.0) 427 484 (11.8) US 588 575 566 629 573 (2.6) (8.9) 2,343 2,376 (1.4) Total 1,077 1,028 1,012 1,089 1,017 (5.6) (6.6) 4,146 4,327 (4.2) Fertilisers Urea 254 222 322 319 280 10.2 (12.2) 1,143 1,138 0.4 Complex 96 - 112 194 155 61.5 (20.1) 461 589 (21.7) Others Salt 219 228 229 223 243 11.0 9.0 923 860 7.3 Soda ash ‐ Production Domestic 206 179 187 204 202 (1.9) (1.0) 772 760 1.6 Europe 199 196 190 173 176 (11.6) 1.7 735 805 (8.7) Africa 109 103 128 104 108 (0.9) 3.8 443 482 (8.1) US 527 566 576 614 575 9.1 (6.4) 2,331 2,299 1.4 Total 1,041 1,044 1,081 1,095 1,061 1.9 (3.1) 4,281 4,346 (1.5) Source: Company Data, PL Research May 28, 2013 3
Page 1: May 28, 2013 Balwindar Singh balwin
Page 5 and 6: Exhibit 6: TCNA financial performan
Page 7 and 8: Income Statement (Rs m) Y/e March 2

Tata Chemicals - Myiris.com

You also want an ePaper? Increase the reach of your titles

Delete template?

Save as template?