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April to June 2013
India Strategy & Quarterly Report
WILL GOVERNMENT’S MASSIVE SURGE IN INVESTMENT
APPROVALS THROUGH TWIN FORCE-MULTIPLIERS OF
CCI & CCEA REVIVE INDIA’S INVESTMENT CYCLE?

Apr-Jun 2013 Earnings Preview
July 8, 2013 2

Apr-Jun 2013 Earnings Preview
Contents
Page No.
India Strategy ..................................................................................... 5
Agri Products & Chemcials ............................................................... 30
Automobiles ..................................................................................... 41
Auto Ancillary ................................................................................... 49
Banks ................................................................................................ 55
Capital Goods ................................................................................... 76
Cement ............................................................................................. 88
Construction & Engineering ............................................................. 93
Consumer ....................................................................................... 101
Information Technology ................................................................. 113
Metals & Mining ............................................................................ 125
Offshore & Ports ............................................................................ 135
Pharmaceuticals ............................................................................. 141
Power ............................................................................................. 151
Real Estate ..................................................................................... 161
Others ............................................................................................ 174
Annexure ........................................................................................ 177
(All prices as on July 8, 2013)
Prabhudas Lilladher Pvt. Ltd. and/or its associates (the 'Firm') does and/or seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result investors should be aware that
the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of the report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.
Please refer to important disclosures and disclaimers at the end of the report
July 8, 2013 3

Apr-Jun 2013 Earnings Preview
July 8, 2013 4

Apr-Jun 2013 Earnings Preview
Ajay Bodke
ajaybodke@plindia.com
+91-22-6632 2210
Revenue, EBITDA & PAT for Nifty
companies to grow at 7.1%, 8.8% and 7.9%
respectively on YoY basis
India Strategy
Q1 FY14 Nifty Earnings Preview: Revenue growth of Nifty companies is expected to
inch up to 7.1% YoY- an improvement over 5.4% YoY growth in Q4 FY13 though still
much lower than 13.7% YoY growth in Q1 FY13. Revenue growth of NIFTY
companies, after excluding Oil & Gas companies, is expected at 4.5% YoY, a fifteenquarter
low. The continuance of slow growth in top-line of India’s mega-cap
bellwether companies is mirroring the slump in the overall aggregate demand in the
Indian economy as evident in the multi-year low GDP growth numbers. EBITDA
growth at 8.8% YoY would marginally beat top-line growth reflecting the tailwinds of
lower commodity prices on a YoY basis. PAT would grow at 7.9% YoY lagging EBITDA
growth possibly indiccating that a relief from an accommodative monetary policy in
the form of lower interest rates & easy liquidity are yet to get reflected in the
numbers for India Inc.
Nifty Revenue Growth (YoY)
(%)
50.0
40.0
30.0
20.0
10.0
0.0
-10.0
-20.0
32.6
14.5
14.6
1.1
-15.1
0.5
21.0
38.8
35.9
31.3
26.0
27.0
26.8
21.7
28.5
22.3
13.7
14.4
8.2
5.4
7.1
Q1FY09
Q2FY09
Q3FY09
Q4FY09
Q1FY10
Q2FY10
Q3FY10
Q4FY10
Q1FY11
Q2FY11
Q3FY11
Q4FY11
Q1FY12
Q2FY12
Q3FY12
Q4FY12
Q1FY13
Q2FY13
Q3FY13
Q4FY13
Q1FY14E
Source: PL Research
Nifty EBITDA Growth (YoY)
(%)
50.0
40.0
30.0
20.0
10.0
0.0
-10.0
-20.0
35.9
18.2
1.8
12.3
-8.1
1.9
20.8
25.0
33.0
41.4
31.3
27.5
15.8
6.4
10.8
14.6
4.9
13.4
4.7
5.4
8.8
Q1FY09
Q2FY09
Q3FY09
Q4FY09
Q1FY10
Q2FY10
Q3FY10
Q4FY10
Q1FY11
Q2FY11
Q3FY11
Q4FY11
Q1FY12
Q2FY12
Q3FY12
Q4FY12
Q1FY13
Q2FY13
Q3FY13
Q4FY13
Q1FY14E
Source: PL Research
July 8, 2013 5

Apr-Jun 2013 Earnings Preview
Nifty PAT Growth (YoY)
(%)
70.0
60.0
50.0
40.0
30.0
20.0
10.0
0.0
-10.0
-20.0
-30.0
Q1FY09
Q2FY09
Q3FY09
Q4FY09
Q1FY10
Q2FY10
Q3FY10
Q4FY10
Q1FY11
Q2FY11
Q3FY11
Q4FY11
Q1FY12
Q2FY12
Q3FY12
Q4FY12
Q1FY13
Q2FY13
Q3FY13
Q4FY13
Q1FY14E
12.6
5.3
1.2
15.4
-12.5
-19.1
2.4
15.7
30.1
60.4
42.7
30.7
10.2
2.5
10.2
21.0
2.3
26.4
2.2
1.5
7.9
Source: PL Research
PL’s Coverage Universe – Revenue &
EBITDA is expected to grow 3.7% & 2.9%
respectively on YoY basis. PAT is expected
to fall by 6.2% YoY
Q1 FY14 PL’s Coverage Universe Earnings Preview: Revenue growth for all the
companies under PL’s coverage universe is expected at 3.7% on a YoY basis while
EBITDA would lag topline growth at 2.9%. EBITDA margin would fall to 23.7% from
23.9% in Q1 FY13. Financial Services, Consumer staples, Banks, Pharma and IT will
lead the charge in terms of revenue growth while Metals, Agri-products and Cement
are expected to drag it down. PAT is expected to fall by 6.2% YoY. Metals, Cement,
Auto-ancillary, Agri-products would drag down profits. On a QoQ basis revenue and
PAT would fall by 10.9% and 21.8% respectively.
Sector‐wise growth and margin expectations – Q4FY13 PL estimates
Revenue (%) PAT (%) EBITDA Margin (bps)
YoY QoQ YoY QoQ YoY QoQ
Agri Products & Chemicals (5.4) (17.5) (26.7) (15.1) (95) 239
Automobiles 3.1 (15.3) (6.3) (32.3) 11 (101)
Auto Ancillary (1.5) (2.3) (23.5) (10.6) (56) (71)
Banks 13.5 3.4 6.4 (2.5)
Capital Goods 1.7 (38.6) (3.9) (69.6) 16 (811)
Cement (4.6) (6.8) (32.9) (22.6) (622) (87)
Construction 8.1 (24.8) (0.7) (50.8) (43) (31)
Consumer Staples 14.4 3.7 13.8 6.7 52 128
Financial Services 23.0 (8.5) 23.7 (16.1)
Information Tech. 10.9 5.1 11.5 3.4 (67) 12
Metals (7.9) (17.0) (31.1) (41.0) (226) (347)
Offshore, S.B. & Ports (2.9) (10.1) (21.7) (40.2) (681) 455
Pharma 11.6 2.2 (91.2) (95.2) (9) 185
Power 6.9 (0.7) (5.5) 5.4 76 53
Real Estate 20.3 (4.6) (5.0) 161.8 (954) 447
Others 7.4 (15.9) NA (61.6) 152 (411)
PL Universe 3.7 (10.9) (6.2) (21.8) (18) (18)
Source: Company Data, PL Research
*EBITDA Margins are excluding BFSI
July 8, 2013 6

Apr-Jun 2013 Earnings Preview
Q4FY13 revenue growth estimate (YoY)
(%)
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
-
(5.0)
(10.0)
Q4FY13 profit growth estimate (YoY)
20.0
-
(%)
(20.0)
(40.0)
(60.0)
(80.0)
(100.0)
Source: PL Research
Source: PL Research
EBITDAM YoY change in Q4FY13 (bps)
Others
Power
Consumer Staples
Capital Goods
Automobiles
Pharma
Construction
Auto Ancillary
Information Tech.
Agri Products &
Chemicals
Metals
Cement
Offshore, S.B. & Ports
Real Estate
(1,200) (1,000) (800) (600) (400) (200) - 200 400
Source: PL Research
July 8, 2013 7

Apr-Jun 2013 Earnings Preview
WILL GOVERNMENT’S MASSIVE SURGE IN INVESTMENT APPROVALS
THROUGH TWIN FORCE‐MULTIPLIERS OF CCI & CCEA REVIVE INDIA’S
INVESTMENT CYCLE?
Government embarks on an Investment
Approval Surge massive in scale, scope and
magnitude
Having identified revival of industrial & infrastructure capex as one its main focus
areas; the government has gone into an overdrive in focusing all its energies in
identifying and expediting the approvals for long pending projects with investments
of Rs 10 bn and above. The Cabinet Committee on Investment (CCI) constituted on
2nd January 2013 under the leadership of the Honorable Prime Minister has been
spearheading this initiative. Last few months has seen the government embark on an
Investment approval surge which is massive in scale, scope and magnitude.
In our India Strategy report dated January 8, 2013 ‘Markets 5 Commandments to
Policy Makers for continued buoyancy amidst avalanche of global liquidity’ we had
discussed the imperative to launch an investment blitz. Along with necessity to clear
bottlenecks in the crucial core industries of coal mining and power generation we
had also listed some of the large infrastructure projects/initiatives that the
government needed to take expeditiously to signal its serious intent to revive
investment sentiment.
31 Oil & gas exploration & production
blocks with already incurred investment of
$ 13.42 bn cleared, further $ 2.5 bn
investment expected soon
Out of 40 oil & gas blocks where exploration & production activities were stopped
for want of clearances from the Defence & Commerce Ministries, 31 blocks spread
over 2,66,463 sq. km have been cleared by CCI which will put to use an already
incurred investment of $ 13.42 bn and bring in an additional investment of $ 2.5 bn
over the next 3-5 years.
Landmark decisions on simplifying
Environment and Forest Clearances for
Coal Mining & Linear projects
In its earlier meetings held in March and April 2013, CCI had taken some landmark
decisions on Environment & Forest Clearances to Coal Mining projects by fasttracking
approvals of 12 coal mining projects leading to an annual production of
36.97 million ton and an investment of Rs 13.47 billion. It has also exempted coal
mining projects from public hearing for one-time capacity expansion of 25% or less
and scrapped the requirement of fresh EC for a mining project at the time of renewal
of mining lease. Exemption for linear projects from obtaining consent of all Gram
Sabhas through which they were passing has been granted as it was leading to
inordinate delays in getting FC. Work in non-forest portion for a linear project can
now start even when FC is pending for the forest portion. Requisite guidelines for delinking
EC and FC for linear projects subsequent to the Apex Court’s verdict have also
been issued.
10 Transmission, 1 hydro & 2 thermal
power projects entailing an investment of
Rs 330 bn granted forest clearance
Out of 20 large projects considered for approvals, 13 (10 Transmission, 1 Hydro
Power and 2 Thermal power) involving an investment of Rs 330 bn have been
cleared. The projects were awaiting Stage-I and Stage-II FC clearances. Out of the
rest 7, one has been cleared by the Environment & Forest Ministry (MoEF), 2 will be
taken up by the Power Ministry directly with the Coal Ministry and matters are being
pursued for the rest 4 with State Governments.
July 8, 2013 8

Apr-Jun 2013 Earnings Preview
Security clearances for Port Infrastructure
projects to be granted within 12 weeks
flat‐ to expedite investment in this crucial
sector
In its endeavor to improve port infrastructure, modernize existing facilities and
increase the capacity & draft at ports, the government has been promoting
enhancement of capacity at major ports through the PPP mode for construction of
berths/terminals/jetties and mechanization of berths for cargo handling. In FY13, 32
projects were awarded resulting in capacity addition of 136.75 MTPA involving
investment of Rs 67.65 bn. CCI directed all security agencies to adhere to the
timeline of 12 weeks for grant of security clearances for port infrastructure
improvement projects. Security clearance once granted would be valid for 3 years
unless there is a change in shareholding pattern. This is expected to expedite
investment in this crucial infrastructure sector.
Two Major Ports entailing investment of Rs
158.2 bn approved in West Bengal and
Andhra Pradesh
The government has cleared proposal to set up two Major Ports at Sagar in West
Bengal and as-yet-not-finalized location in Andhra Pradesh through PPP mode at a
total cost of Rs 158.20 bn. The port at Sagar will have a capacity of Rs 54 mtpa and
cost Rs 78.20 bn while the one in AP will cost Rs 80bn with a capacity of 50 mtpa.
The new ports will cater to growing imports of coal and oil besides boosting local
economy and generating jobs.
Important Bottlenecks holding up fasttrack
implementation of National
Highways Development Projects removed
Many important bottlenecks holding up fast-track implementation of National
Highways Development Projects (NHDP) have been removed. Special exemption has
been granted under Forest Act for strengthening and widening of National Highway
projects specifically pertaining to diversion of protected forest land, treating
strengthening & widening of national highways infrastructure different from new
projects, ceiling of 4000 km of 4-laning of National Highways enhanced to 8000 km
on BOT mode only, considering debts due to the lenders as ‘secured’ loans in case of
PPP projects and 4000 km of roads to be taken up on EPC basis in FY14.
Rs 231 bn Mumbai Metro line‐3 project
cleared. Centre shows its commitment by
agreeing to invest equally as the State of
Maharashtra
The Cabinet has cleared 33.5 km, fully under-ground Mumbai Metro line-3 project
(Colaba-Bandra-SEEPZ) with an investment outlay of Rs 231.36 bn to be completed
by March 2019. The Central government has affirmed its commitment to the project
by forming a 50.50 JV with the State government. Once completed, the project
would provide much needed transport infrastructure to the commercial capital.
Independent Regulatory Authority for Coal
sector set up
An Independent Regulatory Authority for Coal sector has been set up which would
regulate and conserve coal resources and benefit all the stake holders. The Regulator
would specify methods of testing for declaration of grades or quality of coal, monitor
and enforce closure of mines, specify principles and methodology for price
determination of raw and washed coal and adjudicate on disputes between parties.
Modification of delegation of powers for
expeditious approval & appraisal of
National Highways projects without
compromising on due diligence & physical
prudence
CCEA modified delegation of powers for approval and appraisal of National Highways
projects to expedite approval process without compromising on due diligence and
physical prudence. Projects above Rs 5 bn would be now cleared by a Committee
under Expenditure Secretary rather than coming to CCEA and those below Rs 5 bn by
Committee under Secretary- Road Transport.
July 8, 2013 9

Apr-Jun 2013 Earnings Preview
Continuation of Restructured Accelerated
Power Development & Reforms program to
establish state of the art IT enabling
systems for business process automation &
consumer services
CCEA has decided to continue the Restructured Accelerated Power Development &
Reforms Program in the XII Plan to establish state of the art IT enabling systems for
reliable & sustained collection and distribution network for business process
automation, energy accounting an audit, network analysis and consumer services.
The original Plan size of Rs 515.77 bn has been maintained. Rs 56.97 bn was released
in XI plan and Rs 108.30 bn would be released in the current XII Plan.
Harmonious substitution of existing
concessionaries in Road projects with
Lenders & NHAI’s consent‐ to help revive
interest in the sector
Many road projects granted under the PPP mode have been stuck due to the
inability of concessionaires to infuse equity. To help revive interest in the sector,
CCEA has hence approved a proposal for harmonious substitution of existing
concessionaires in case of both on-going and completed projects. Consent of lenders
and the NHAI is a must for this substitution.
Coal India to sign FSAs‐ Move to breathe
life in 78000 MW of TPPs, Pass‐through of
higher cost of Imported Coal allowed.
Some of the most intractable issues
dogging the sector addressed
A landmark decision was taken by the CCEA to decisively tackle the issue of
inadequate coal availability for many under-construction as well as completed
thermal power projects (TPP). The decision would also address the problem of banks
and financial institutions groaning under an ever-rising burden of non-performing
and restructured assets from the power sector due to many projects being rendered
financially unviable due to their inability to pass on the cost of increase in fuel. Coal
India (CIL) would sign Fuel Supply Agreements (FSA) for a total capacity of 78000
MW including cases of tapering linkage which are likely to be commissioned by
31/3/15. Actual coal supplies will commence when long-term PPAs are tied-up. FSAs
would entail CIL supplying 65%, 65%, 70% and 75% of annual contracted quantity
from FY14 to FY17 respectively. The balance obligations will be met by CIL by
resorting to imports and supplying to willing TPPs. TPPs also have the option to go in
for imports on their own. Most importantly, CCEA has suggested pass-through of
higher cost of imported coal as per the modalities suggested by CERC in the Adani
Power and Tata Power (UMPP) cases. Power Ministry would be issuing appropriate
advisory to the CERC/SERCs including modifications if any in the bidding guidelines to
enable appropriate Commissions to decide the pass through of higher cost of
imported coal on a case to case basis. Additional TPPs of 4660 MW not having a coal
linkage but likely to be commissioned by 31/3/15 having long-term PPAs and a high
bank exposure will also be considered for coal supply subject to coal availability.
Project Monitoring Group (PMG) removes
bottlenecks for 11 Thermal Power Projects
of 10390 MW involving investment of Rs
520 bn
Web‐based information system installed to
help entrepreneurs provide details to PMG
The Project Monitoring Group (PMG) set up under the Cabinet Secretariat is tasked
with removing bottlenecks for stalled projects with an estimated bank funding of Rs
7 lakh crores. The PMG has set up 9 sub-groups with the Ministries of Environment,
Coal, Railways, Defense, Home Affairs, Petroleum & Natural Gas, Mines and Heavy
Industries to look at problem areas. In its two meetings of the sub-groups with
Ministries of Environment and Coal held so far, out of 15 stalled projects referred to
the PMG by the Power Ministry it has been able to clear 11 power plants of 10390
MW involving an investment of Rs 520 bn. Most of the projects had problems
related to availability of coal while some had environmental clearance issues. The 4
projects not cleared face problems related to forest clearances. The PMG has
created a Web-based information system for use by private entrepreneurs to
provide details of stuck projects and point out the problem areas. The information
July 8, 2013 10

Apr-Jun 2013 Earnings Preview
then moves through the ministry concerned to the PMG and is to be sorted out by all
the Ministries involved. So far 83 projects have been registered with the PMG and 21
Ministries & Departments have appointed Nodal officials of the Joint Secretary rank
to be part of the process.
Domestic Gas pricing revised to
$8.4/mmbtu from 1st April 2014, quarterly
revisions based on formula suggested by
Rangarajan Committee
Move to help catalyze domestic
exploration efforts & reduce dependence
on costly LNG imports
India’s rising share of costly LNG imports as a percentage of total domestic
consumption of gas impacting an already precarious Balance-of-Payments problem
as well as the plummeting domestic production due to current prices acting as a
strong barrier to catalyze domestic exploration efforts have made it unavoidable for
the government to look into the long standing issue of ‘right-pricing’ domestically
produced gas. The present gas pricing policy is due for revision from 1st April 2014.
CCEA decided to adopt the recommendations of the Committee constituted under
Dr. C. Rangarajan on Production Sharing Contract (PSC) mechanism in the petroleum
industry. The new pricing policy would meet the twin objectives of incentivizing
production in the upstream sector so that production reaches optimum levels and all
exploitable reserves are put to production expeditiously. Consumer interest will be
protected by ensuring that producers do not cartelize due to huge unmet demand.
The revised gas price at $8.4/mmbtu from $4.2/mmbtu will come into effect from
1st April 2014, will be revised every quarter and will be the simple average of the
prices arrived through the following two methods. The first input would be the
netback price of Indian LNG imports (excluding spot imports) at the wellhead of the
exporting countries while the second input would be the weighted average of pricing
prevailing at three major global hubs- US Henry Hub, NBP of UK and netback price at
sources of supply for Japan.
Input prices for power & fertilizer units to
be decided by a Committee before 1st April
2014, relief in the form of lower prices
expected‐ Government may bear extra
subsidy
The formula of output prices to be paid to gas producers has been decided while a
Committee has been formed to arrive at suitable input prices for key sectors like
fertilizers and power. Power Ministry had vehemently opposed the hike in gas prices
stating that it would lead to increase in cost of generation from Rs 2.93/unit to Rs
6.40/unit while additional burden on fertilizer players would have been
approximately Rs 30 bn for every $1 rise in gas price i.e. Rs 120 bn for a $4 increase
in gas price announced. To allay the apprehensions of both the Ministries, the
Committee would arrive at a suitable lower price for power and fertilizer units with
the difference being borne by the government.
Phase‐IV of UIDAI launched‐ 200 mn
enrolled, 400 mn more to be covered by
March 2014‐ Benefits of Inclusive growth,
providing identity to marginalized, better
delivery of services and effective
governance
The Unique Identification Authority of India (UIDAI or Aadhar) project launched in
2009 is aimed at ensuring inclusive growth by providing a form of identity to those
who do not have identity and enabling better delivery of services and effective
governance. Having successfully enrolled 200 mn residents through multiple
registrars, built technology platform & other supporting infrastructure for creation,
storage and maintenance of data and services for leveraging Aadhar through first
three phases, the government has approved its Phase-IV with an estimated cost of
Rs 34.36 bn to enroll an additional 400 mn residents by March 2014.
July 8, 2013 11

Apr-Jun 2013 Earnings Preview
AAI to build 50 low‐cost airports to
improve regional connectivity in smaller
cities to deepen economic growth in the
hinterland
To improve regional air connectivity government has agreed to build 50 low-cost
airports in 11 states. The existing small airports in these cities are managed by the
Airports Authority of India (AAI) and these would be upgraded to regular airports
that would cater to regional airlines operating small aircraft.
8 New Greenfield airports to be developed,
2 New International airports to be taken up
in FY14
Privatization of 15 airports announced‐ Its
Chennai and Kolkata first, Lucknow,
Guwahati, Jaipur & Ahmedabad to follow
in FY14
Work on diesel and electric locomotive
factories entailing an investment of RS 320
bn to start by Dec 13 on PPP basis
Rs 210 bn Western Elevated Rail Corridor in
Mumbai taken up on PPP basis
In addition, 8 new Greenfield airports under the PPP route will be developed at Navi
Mumbai, Juhu (Mumbai), Goa, Chakan (Pune), Kannur, Sriperumbudur, Bellary and
Raigarh. Two new international airports will be taken up at Bhubhuneswar (Orissa)
and Imphal (Manipur) in FY14.
Decision has been taken to hand over airports operations and maintenance through
PPP contacts at various AAI-owned airports. Government also kicked-off the
eventual privatization of 15 airports currently managed by the AAI with older
terminals at Chennai and Kolkata going first on the block. A JV partner will be
brought in to manage the older terminals at these two airports while the newer
terminals built by AAI may be leased out to a private concessionaire at a predetermined
fee. Lucknow, Guwahati, Jaipur and Ahmedabad are the other four
airports that are likely to be privatized in FY14.
The Indian Railways (IR) intends to start work on PPP basis for two locomotive
factory projects worth Rs 320 bn by December 2012. MNCs like GE, CSR, Bombardier,
Alsthom and Siemens have evinced interest in partnering for an electric locomotive
factory at Madhepura in Bihar while GE, CSR and EMD are eager to partner Indian
Railways to set up a diesel locomotive factory at Marhowra in Bihar. IR would hold
26% with the rest being held by the private partner. Over a 10 year period, factories
would provide railways with 800 electric locomotives of 12000 HP each and a mix of
1000 diesel locomotives of 4500 and 6000 HP with high level performance
guarantees. IR plans to shortlist companies by July2013-end after receiving requests
for qualifications and award the projects by December 2013.
A 62.28 km elevated rail corridor project costing Rs 210 bn connecting Oval Maidan
and Virar in Mumbai has been taken up by IR on PPP basis. 6 companies have been
shortlisted by IR and state support agreement is expected to be signed with the
Maharashtra government shortly. Discussions related to land acquisition, shifting of
underground utilities and commercial use of land has begun between IR and
Maharashtra government. IR has sought commercial exploitation of 130,000 sq m
along the route to fund the project. 26 stations are proposed on the corridor out of
which 9 will be elevated, 2 at ground level and 5 underground. The project is
conceived on design, build, finance, operate and transfer basis.
July 8, 2013 12

Apr-Jun 2013 Earnings Preview
Central & Harbour Elevated Rail Corridor,
Trans‐Harbour Link, Nariman Point‐
Versova Sealink (Rajiv Gandhi Setu) & West
& East Coast Waterway projects still
languishing.
A PMO‐monitored task force necessary to
speed‐up implementation & Delhi‐metrolike
favourable financing terms necessary
Although the Western Elevated Rail Corridor project has seen some forward
movement, the equally crucial 55km Central Elevated Rail Corridor project
connecting CST to Thane and the Harbour Elevated Rail Corridor project connecting
CST to Mankhurd have not seen any movement whatsoever. Time-bound clearances
and hawkish monitoring of other key stalled projects like the Rs 96.30 bn, 22-km
Mumbai Trans-Harbour Link (Sewri-Nhava), Rs 100 bn extension of the Rajiv Gandhi
Setu (Bandra-Worli Sealink) from Nariman Point to Versova or coastal road, Rs 7.53
bn West Coast water transport project connecting Nariman Point to Borivali and Rs
3.56 bn East Coast water transport project connecting Mandhwa to Ferry Wharf is
called for. A PMO-monitored taskforce needs to monitor progress and expeditiously
consider funding these national projects on the same favourable terms as the worldclass
metro network in the NCR.
Western and Eastern Dedicated Freight
Corridor (investment outlay of Rs 958.36
bn including cost of land) to dramatically
reduce turnaround time and catalyze trade
especially exports & imports between
hinterland and ports
DFCCIL is the Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV) formed for planning, construction,
operation and maintenance of Dedicated Freight Corridors and in the first phase it
has conceived two corridors namely the approximately 1900-km Eastern Freight
Corridor (EFC) connecting Amritsar (Punjab) to Dankuni (West Bengal) and the 1499-
km Western Freight Corridor (WFC) connecting Dadri (near Delhi) to JNPT Port
(Mumbai). DFC is meant to sustain 1.5 km of train length and a 100 km/hr of speed
with a load of 15000 tonnes. As against the norm of 22.5-tonne axle load on the
existing network, that on DFC will be 32.5 or 25 tonnes comparable to the standard
in the US, Russia and China. With IR pushing in for more and more passenger trains
on existing rail track every year DFC is a key infrastructure project for IR to separate
passenger and freight network. The existing truck routes on Eastern (Kolkata- Delhi)
and Western (Mumbai-Delhi) sectors are saturated with line capacity utilization
exceeding 115% and 150% respectively.
WFC fully funded by Japan International
Cooperation Agency (JICA)
Sojitz‐L&T JV wins the first contact
WFC being built in three phases is being funded entirely by Japan International
Cooperation Agency (JICA). Agreement for the first tranche of the soft loan from
JICA for Rs 45 bn has already been signed while that for the second phase of Rs 115
bn connecting Vadodara and JNPT (640 km) is being negotiated. The consortium led
by Japanese company Sojitz has bagged Rs 67 bn contact for the 640-km project
between Rewari and Palanpur that is part of the first phase spanning 920-km from
Rewari to Vadodara. The work is expected to be completed in four years as almost
the entire land required for the project has been acquired and all other statutory
clearances have been obtained.
EFC to be majorly funded by the World
Bank, soft loan of $2.75 bn committed
First contract awarded in Jan 13 to Tata‐
ALDESA JV, short listing for the second
done
EFC is being built in four sections. Mughalsarai to Sonnagar stretch is being funded
by IR. Sonnagar to Dankuni stretch will be built through the PPP mode while the
remaining three stretches from Mughalsarai to Amritsar will be funded by the World
Bank. More than 90% of the land has been acquired. 80% of the alignment is parallel
to the existing railway track. However, the alignment takes a detour to skirt busy
cities, towns and other inhabited areas. The World Bank has agreed in-principle loan
commitment of US $ 2.725 bn in two phases of $ 975 mn (loan agreement signed in
Oct 2011) and $ 1.2 bn (loan agreement expected to be signed shortly) respectively.
24 companies have submitted their applications for pre-qualifications for the 393-km
July 8, 2013 13

Apr-Jun 2013 Earnings Preview
Kanpur-Mughalsarai part worth Rs 40 bn and companies will be shortlisted for the
project after clearance from the World Bank within 45 days. Contract for the 343-km
Kanpur-Khurja section worth Rs 33 bn was awarded in January 2013 to Tata-ALDESA
JV which is expected to complete it in four years.
$ 100 bn DMIC project kicks‐off ‐ 7 cities, 3
airports planned
Government approves Rs 175 bn
assistance, Japanese government provides
$ 4.5 bn support in the first phase
Delhi-Mumbai Industrial Corridor (DMIC) is a project that envisages an investment of
US $90-100 bn over 30 years with seven industrial cities in the first phase being
developed. Townships of 25-50 sq km are being aimed to be completed by end-2019.
Acquisition of land for the project is the responsibility of the State governments. The
seven cities planned are at Dadri-Noida-Ghaziabad region in UP, Manesar-Bawal
region in Haryana, Khuskhera-Bhiwadi-Neemrana region in Rajasthan, Ahmedabad-
Dholera region in Gujarat, Shendra-Bidkin near Aurangabad in Maharashtra and near
Dighi Port in Maharashtra. Three airports are also planned to be developed under
DMIC. The airports are International airport near Ahmedabad-Dholera in Gujarat,
near Jodhpur in Rajasthan and Aerotropolis in Alwar district of Rajasthan. Indian
government has approved Rs 175 bn ($ 3 bn) initially with Rs 25 bn as Central
assistance for each of the seven cities in the first phase. The Japanese government
has also approved financial support of $ 4.5 billion for the first phase of the project.
Feasibility of setting up Amritsar‐Delhi‐
Kolkata Industrial Corridor started ‐ 8‐10
cities, 5 metro rails, expressways planned
The government has also constituted an inter-ministerial group under Secretary-
DIPP to examine the feasibility of setting up Amritsar-Delhi-Kolkata Industrial
Corridor (ADKIC) expected to benefit 40% of India’s 120 bn people across the seven
states through which it will pass and expected to create approximately 3 mn jobs.
The plan comprises of creating 8-10 industrial cities, 5 metro rail networks, a number
of expressways and even Bullet Trains. It will be structured along with the EFC and
the existing Highway network and also leverage on the Internal Waterway system
being developed along National Waterway-1 between Allahabad and Haldia.
Japan to submit detailed project report for
Bangalore‐Chennai Industrial Corridor by
Dec 13, in‐principle nod to fund the project
A detailed project report for building Bangalore-Chennai Industrial Corridor (to be
later extended to Andhra Pradesh) is being prepared by the Japanese International
Cooperation Agency which is expected to be ready by December 2013. It will go into
details such as total outlay and mode of financing. The Japanese Government has
agreed to fund the project and its interest stems from the fact that 400 Japanese
companies have set up their facilities in and around Chennai.
UK starts feasibility study for Mumbai‐
Bangalore Industrial Corridor, looking to
fund the project
UK and India have jointly agreed to finance a feasibility study on the proposed 1000-
km Mumbai-Bangalore Industrial Corridor (MBIC) to help various companies from
the UK to establish their set-ups and is looking at funding the project. The project
entails creation of physical infrastructure like transport networks, telecom and
power generation and social infrastructure like healthcare, education and welfare.
July 8, 2013 14

Apr-Jun 2013 Earnings Preview
Export‐parity pricing likely to be adopted in
place of import/trade parity
Fuel subsidy bill of Rs 1610 bn would have
been lower by Rs 176 bn in FY13 on export
parity pricing
The Finance Ministry has been successful in altering the mandate of the Kirit Parekh
Committee constituted to suggest a suitable pricing mechanism for petro-products
from import/trade parity to export-parity. Currently diesel is priced at trade parity,
80% import and 20% export. LPG and kerosene are priced at import parity. The
Finance Ministry wants diesel and kerosene to be priced on import parity and LPG
pricing to be based on a mix of 60% exports and 40% import parity rates. A shift to
export parity would have lead to a reduction in diesel subsidies by Rs 143.72 bn to Rs
776.89 bn in FY13. LPG and kerosene subsidies would have come down by Rs 22.45
bn and Rs10 bn respectively. Total subsidy savings would have been Rs 176.18 bn
from FY13’s total fuel subsidy bill of Rs 1610.29 bn. In April 2013, the Budget had
estimated fuel subsidy bill for FY14 at Rs 800 bn which has swollen to Rs 1250bn due
to the sharp slide in the Rupee and increase in under-recoveries despite small
monthly increases of Rs 0.50/litre in diesel prices.
Food Security Ordinance promulgated
regarded as “game changer” by a section
of the poll‐bound Congress Party
67% of population legally entitled to get
5kgs of food grains per person per month.
(Rice at Rs3/kg, Wheat at Rs2/kg or Millets
at Rs1/kg)
Foodgrain requirement estimated at 612.3
lakh tones per year.
Food Subsidy bill to bloat by 25% to 1.25
lakh crores
Food Security Ordinance promulgated- 25% rise in annual fuel subsidies likely,
populist measure widely regarded as “game-changer” by a section of the poll-bound
Congress Party The government has promulgated an ordinance on food security that
seeks to give a legal right to monthly food handouts to 67% of the population (75%
of rural and 50% of urban population) or approximately 800 mn people at a fraction
of their market price. Government will supply rice at Rs 3/kg, wheat at Rs 2/kg and
millets at Re 1/kg. People would be entitled to 5 kg of subsidised grain per month.
The total estimated foodgrains requirement is 612.3 lakh tonnes per year. The law
comes into effect immediately but has provided States six months window to
identify the eligible households in a fair and transparent manner. The annual food
subsidy bill is expected to swell to Rs 1.25 lakh crores. Government has provided Rs 1
lakh crore provided in the FY14 Budget as food subsidy but the full impact will be felt
only in FY15 when all the States start the rollout after identifying eligible
beneficiaries. The poorest-of-poor 24.3 mn families covered under the Antyodaya
Anna Yojana (AAY) scheme under the PDS would continue to get legal entitlement of
35 kg of foodgrains per family per month.
Food security concerns‐ Bloated subsidy
burden hitting fiscal health, squeezing of
private traders by FCI, shift in cropping
patterns endangering foodgrains
production & increased leakages
There are concerns that private grain traders will be squeezed out of the market by
the government-owned Food Corporation of India (FCI). Also, some farmers may
shift to other remunerative crops and fulfil their own requirements through
subsidized grains affecting foodgrain output. The dangers of leakages and other
malpractices cannot be ruled out. Any substantial rise in food subsidy bill would
pressurize the government’s already precarious fiscal situation. The government
needs to get this cleared in the Parliament within six weeks of Parliament’s next
sitting.
July 8, 2013 15

Apr-Jun 2013 Earnings Preview
Mayaram Committee’s bold
recommendations to increase FDI cap in
various sectors‐ a much needed booster
dose for attracting stable, long term
capital to bridge the large CAD, boost
growth impulses in the slowing economy
and attract global best‐practices
In an environment when India needs to bridge a large current account deficit of $ 80-
90 bn in FY14 long-term & stable capital flows through the FDI route need to be
actively encouraged. Reliance on fickle FII flows (both equity & debt), ECBs and NRI
deposits in an extremely volatile external risk environment has the potential to
imperil the Balance-of-payments situation and macro-economic stability. It is in this
context that the Mayaram Committee has recommended sweeping changes in the
FDI regime. It has recommended increase in FDI cap in defence, multi-brand retail
and aviation under the government approval route to 49%, 74% and 74%
respectively as against 26%, 51% and 49% at present. It has also proposed raising
the FDI cap to 49% under the automatic route in sectors like PSU Banks, single-brand
retail, existing pharma companies, power & commodity exchanges, tea plantations,
print & news television, radio, asset reconstruction companies, stock exchanges,
insurance & satellite services. Where ownership and control either by Indian or
foreign owners do not matter, it has suggested raising FDI cap to 100% in
infrastructure activities like telecom, broadcasting carriage services, Internet service
providers, existing airport projects and non-scheduled air transport services. Home
Ministry has raised concerns over plans to increase FDI cap in sensitive sectors like
media, defence, telecom and civil aviation. Once the Commerce Ministry receives
views of all the concerned Ministries it will then take it to the Cabinet.
Monsoons‐ Best start since 2001, entire
country covered a month in advance, till
1W July 32% above LPA, 91% of India
receives excess/normal rains
Area under cultivation doubles to 40 mn
hectares
This year’s monsoon covered the entire country in record time almost a month
ahead of schedule. Monsoons account for nearly 70% of India’s annual rainfall. In the
first five weeks since the start of monsoons, rains have been 27% above average of
the past 50 years. Rainfall was 32% above average in June, the best start of the fourmonth
long monsoon season since 2001. Total area under kharif (summer crops) has
doubled to 40 mn hectares from 21.5 mn hectares last year. Rice, the main kharif
crop, has seen a 21% increase in sowing to 6.9 mn hectares while that of crucial
pulses has seen a four-fold jump to 1.8 mn hectares. The other crucial crop of
oilseeds has also seen a jump to 11 mn hectares from 2.7 mn hectares while planting
of cotton has doubled to 8.2 mn hectares. Sugarcane has been planted in 4.74 mn
hectares. A bumper harvest is expected to lower food inflation that has remained
elevated all through the last year and constrained the RBI from aggressively reducing
interest rates. IMD expects rainfall will be 98% of the 50-year average of 89cms in
the four months to September.
Seasonal rainfall scenario ( 1st June to 3rd July 2013)
Region Actual Normal % departure from LPA
Northwest India 165.8 84.4 97
Central India 307.3 192.2 60
South Peninsula 231.2 179.7 29
East & Northeast India 249.6 396.5 -37
Country as a whole 239.7 189.2 27
Source: IMD
July 8, 2013 16

Apr-Jun 2013 Earnings Preview
Out of 36 meteorological divisions, rainfall has been excess over 21, normal over 11
and deficient over 4 (mainly Northeast and Sub-Himalayan West Bengal). 91% of
India’s area has received excess/normal rainfall whereas 9% has received
deficient/scanty rainfall.
Trade deficit to narrow considerably from
June‐September 13
India’s current account deficit (CAD) moderated sharply to 3.6% of GDP in 4Q FY13 ($
18.2 bn) as compared to a historically high level of 6.5% of GDP in 3Q FY13 ($ 31.8
bn) and $ 21.7 in 4Q FY12. For FY13 as a whole CAD is at 4.8% of GDP ($ 88.2 bn) as
compared to 4.2% of GDP ($78.2 bn) last year. Trade deficit has risen from $ 189.8
bn (10.2% of GDP) to $ 195.7 bn (10.6% of GDP). The rise can be attributed to a fall
of 1% in merchandise exports from $ 309.8 bn to $ 306.6 bn and a sharp rise in gold
imports. Gold accounted for around 11% of India’s imports. Oil accounts for about
30% of India’s imports.
Gold imports set to plummet due to
stringent RBI measures, rise in import duty
and plunge in wedding season demand
from June to September
CAD to moderate to 4.3% of GDP in FY14 as
compared to 4.8% in FY13
We believe that after seeing a sharp spike in trade deficit in April 2013 ($ 18 bn) and
May 2013 ($ 20 bn) mainly owing to a humongous rise in gold imports at 142 tons ($
7.5 bn) in April 13 (138% rise YoY) and 162 tons ($ 8.4 bn) in May 13 (90% rise YoY),
trade deficit would show a marked narrowing from June to September period.
Government has sharply increased import duty on gold to 8% (it was around 4%
couple of quarters back) and RBI has put in place stringent measures to dissuade
gold imports. With the onset of monsoons the demand for gold jewellery tapers off
till September. Farmers are busy sowing and the traditional Hindu wedding season
ends in May and re-starts only after the kharif harvest when major festivals like
Navratri and Diwali happen. As we had expected gold imports in June have
plummeted to just 31.5tons resulting in a massive savings of around $7 bn in trade
deficit only on this count. For the year as a whole India’s Chief Economic Advisor Mr.
Raghuram Rajan expects CAD to moderate to 4.3% of GDP on the back of measures
to dampen gold imports and softer global commodity prices. The RBI Governor has
consistently maintained that the current levels of CAD are clearly unsustainable and
it needs to be brought down to 2.5% of GDP.
May’13: WPI cooling off to 4.7%, core
inflation at 41‐month low of 2.4%, CPI
continuous to remain elevated (10.68%)
due to high food inflation (13.24%)
Rapid spread of monsoons across the
country, doubling of area under cultivation,
four‐fold rise in pulses and five‐fold rise in
oilseeds sowing area expected to have
salutary impact on food inflation
India’s WPI in May13 has fallen to 4.7% from 4.9% in April 2013 and 7.4% for the
whole of FY13. Non-food, manufacturing or core inflation that indicates the pricing
power among producers has plummeted to a 41-month low of 2.4% in May 13 as
compared to 2.7% in April 2013. CPI for May 2013 inched up to 10.68% from 10.28%
in April 2013 and 10.14% in May 2012 mainly led by food inflation which rose to
13.24% in May 2013 as against 12.39% in April 2013 and 10.61% in May 2012. We
believe that with near-normal monsoons that have covered the entire country at the
fastest clip and a near doubling of crop area under cultivation (notably the rise is
four-fold for pulses and five-fold for oilseeds), the country should expect a record
kharif harvest. This would have a salutary impact on food inflation which has proven
to be the stickiest. Cooling food inflation would weigh on RBI’s calculus when
deciding the necessity and pace of rate cuts.
July 8, 2013 17

Apr-Jun 2013 Earnings Preview
Gathering strength in US economy leads to
fears of US FED tapering its monthly bond
purchases from next few months
US 10‐year bond yields rise sharply to
2.72%, a near 100bps (~64%) in just last
couple of months
Global markets have been swaying wildly over the past couple of months in trying to
decipher the exact contours of the US Fed’s tapering of its $ 85 monthly bond
purchases. In its last meeting held on June 19th, 2013, the Fed decided to continue
with its ultra-loose monetary stance. It committed to keep the Federal Funds rate at
0-0.25% atleast as long as the unemployment rate remains above 6.5%, projected 1-
yr and 2-yr forward inflation is lower than 2.5% (0.5% above Fed’s target inflation of
2%) and longer-term inflationary expectations remain well-anchored. It decided to
continue with its $85 bn monthly bond purchases. In his comments Mr. Bernanke
said that the Fed would begin tapering later this year, if the economic data
continued to improve. The committee saw ‘diminished’ risks to growth and the jobs
market and now forecasts jobless rate at 6.5% in 2014, a year sooner than previously
forecast. The forecast for CY13 inflation was lowered to 0.8-1.5% but it said that the
cooling would be temporary. It does not expect the first rate hike to occur until
2015. Even if the Fed decides to slow down monthly purchases by the end of CY13,
Mr. Bernanke reiterated that it would only mean slowing the pace of purchases.
However, with monthly bond purchases likely to stop from mid-CY14, the market
reacted violently and has already ramped up the yields on the 10-yr US bonds to
2.72%, a near 100 basis point (~64%) jump over the last couple of months.
Strengthening of US$, sharp spike in US
bond yields and capital gravitating towards
the US leaves leads to sharp fall in many
emerging market currencies and equities
June 2013 payrolls came at 195000, comfortably beating estimates and revisions to
data adding another 70000 to the total, markets have started building in a scenario
where tapering could start sooner rather than later. This has spurred a massive
outflow from emerging markets into the US. The US dollar has strengthened against
most other currencies and especially against the currencies of those countries that
have a large CAD. India along with Brazil, South Africa, Turkey, Mexico and Indonesia
has seen a sharp depreciation in their currencies.
With its large CAD, dependence on fickle FII
flows, large debt repayments in FY14, India
remains vulnerable to an external shock
Rupee has plunged 5.8% vis-a-vis US $ over the last one month amidst worries about
funding the $ 80-90 bn CAD expected in FY14 in the context of tumult expected in
global markets as a result of an expected re-alignment of risks in the event of US Fed
actually starting to taper sooner rather than later. India also needs to worry about
rollover or repayment of $ 172 bn of loans by FY14 (60% of forex reserves). In March
2008 before the global financial crisis, the corresponding figure stood at $ 54.7 bn
(17%of total forex reserves). The period has also seen India’s CAD widening from
2.5% of GDP in FY09 to 4.8% in FY13. During the heady days before the financial
crisis, corporate heavily borrowed overseas with 5-7 year maturity. A lot of those
loans are due for repayment. ECBs form 31% of India’s total external debt of $ 390
bn as on 31st March 2013. Of the $172bn repayable within next one year, ECBs form
44%. An avalanche of global liquidity had over the past few years made it easy for
corporates to roll over their obligations but with fears of capital gravitating to the
developed markets especially US and Japan over the next few years, it poses a grave
danger to their re-financing ability.
July 8, 2013 18

Apr-Jun 2013 Earnings Preview
June saw a Net FIIs outflow of Rs114.25bn
in equities and DIIs were net buyers to the
tune of Rs84.27bn.
June saw a Net FIIs outflow of Rs114.25bn in equities and DIIs were net buyers to the
tune of Rs84.27bn. This is the first month since May’12 (Rs27.56bn) that the FIIs
have been net sellers and even the magnitude of selling in May’12 was marginal as
compared to June’13. Similarly this is the first month since June’12 that the DIIs have
turned Net Buyers.
India: FII/DII Equity Flows
DII Net Cash Market
FII Net Cash Market
300.00
200.00
100.00
-
(100.00)
CY12 ‐ Total FII buying
Rs1,050.6bn against DII net
selling at Rs-568.9bn
YTD CY13
FII Rs466.30bn
DII Rs-405.59bn
(200.00)
Jan-12
Feb-12
Mar-12
Apr-12
May-12
Jun-12
Jul-12
Aug-12
Sep-12
Oct-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Source: Bloomberg, PL Research
July 8, 2013 19

Apr-Jun 2013 Earnings Preview
Global Equity Markets Performance
Concerns on US FED’s tapering of monthly
Month‐on‐Month
bond purchases starting over the next few
months due to gathering strength in the US
economy has roiled global markets with
capital gravitating back to the US and
away from Emerging Markets
(%)
15.0
10.0
5.0
-
(5.0)
(10.0)
(15.0)
9.6
1.5 0.6
(0.0) (0.5) (0.7)
(3.2)
(4.6) (5.6)
(8.9)
(11.4) (12.4)
Japan
Australia
FTSE
Russia
India
S&P
Germany
Hong Kong
S.Korea
Indonesia
China
Brazil
Source: Bloomberg, PL Research
Emerging Markets with large CAD see
large capital outflows and pressure on
their equity markets
Calendar Year‐to‐date
40.0 35.7
30.0
(%)
20.0
10.0
-
(10.0)
(20.0)
3.5
9.3
(8.9)
(0.5)
14.4
4.9
(9.2) (9.0)
2.7
(13.7)
(30.0)
Japan
Australia
FTSE
Russia
India
S&P
Germany
Hong Kong
S.Korea
Indonesia
China
(25.8)
Brazil
Source: Bloomberg, PL Research
Japan leads the outperformance over last
Year‐on‐Year
one year due to adoption of ultra loose
monetary policy
70.0
60.0
50.0
40.0
30.0
20.0
10.0
-
(10.0)
(20.0)
(30.0)
56.4
15.7 13.9
(5.0)
10.3
20.5
24.6
3.9
(2.2)
9.3
(11.9) (18.4)
Japan
Australia
FTSE
Russia
India
S&P
Germany
Hong Kong
S.Korea
Indonesia
China
Brazil
(%)
Source: Bloomberg, PL Research
July 8, 2013 20

Apr-Jun 2013 Earnings Preview
Indian Equities – Sector Performance
Defensives like Healthcare and FMCG
Month‐on‐Month
outperform. Falling rupee acts as a tail
wind for IT Sector. Decision to revise gas
prices w.e.f. April 14, 2013 propels
performance in the Oil & Gas sector
Rate sensitives like Reality and Banks
underperform due to concerns on delay in
interest rate cuts due to sharp fall in rupee
as a result of outflows from Emerging
(%)
5.0
-
(5.0)
(10.0)
(15.0)
(20.0)
3.0 2.8 2.1 1.8
(2.2) (2.3)
(5.8)
(7.8)
(10.2) (11.7)
(16.6)
Markets to Developed Markets like the US
& Japan as well as concerns on large CAD
as also sticky food and CPI inflation
Source: Bloomberg, PL Research
Global Cyclicals like Metals under‐perform
Calendar Year‐to‐date
due to concerns on Global growth
slowdown especially in resource‐hungry
China. Capital Goods and Power underperform
due to concerns on stalled
investment cycle
(%)
20.0
10.0
-
(10.0)
(20.0)
(30.0)
(40.0)
2.6
16.6
11.6 9.9
(6.7)
(16.0) (18.9)
(10.1)
(31.9) (29.6) (20.2)
Source: Bloomberg, PL Research
On a one‐year basis, FMCG, Healthcare
Year‐on‐Year
and IT post double‐digit returns, while
Metals and Power see massive loss
(%)
50.0
40.0
30.0
20.0
10.0
-
(10.0)
(20.0)
(30.0)
(40.0)
8.5
40.4
30.8
10.5 12.3
(10.0)
(19.7)
5.2
(31.4)
(14.8)
(4.5)
Source: Bloomberg, PL Research
July 8, 2013 21

Apr-Jun 2013 Earnings Preview
India: Market cap‐wise Performance
Large caps weather the storm better than
Mid and Small caps
Month‐on‐Month
-
(%)
(1.0)
(2.0)
(3.0)
(4.0)
(1.7)
(2.5)
(5.0)
(6.0)
(7.0)
(4.9)
(6.3)
BSE100 Index BSE500 Index BSESMCAP Index BSEMDCAP Index
Source: Bloomberg, PL Research
Calendar Year‐to‐date
-
(5.0)
(10.0)
(2.9)
(5.5)
(%)
(15.0)
(20.0)
(15.8)
(25.0)
(23.2)
BSE100 Index BSE500 Index BSESMCAP Index BSEMDCAP Index
Source: Bloomberg, PL Research
Large Caps post mid‐single digit positive
Year‐on‐Year
returns whereas Small Caps lose 17% over
the last year
15.0
10.0
5.0
8.8
5.9
(%)
-
(5.0)
(10.0)
(5.2)
(15.0)
(20.0)
(16.9)
BSE100 Index BSE500 Index BSESMCAP Index BSEMDCAP Index
Source: Bloomberg, PL Research
July 8, 2013 22

Apr-Jun 2013 Earnings Preview
Global Currency Movement
Countries with large CAD see sharp fall in
their currencies as a result of capital
outflows. US$ strengthens against most
currencies due to the gathering strength in
its economy. Rising US yields make carry
trade less viable. Yield differential between
the US and other Emerging Markets
widening also leading to outflows of debt
capital from Emerging Markets
Month‐on‐Month
(%)
2.0 1.3
1.0
-
(1.0) (0.0)
(2.0)
(1.0)
(3.0)
(2.0)(2.1)(2.2) (2.4) (2.5)
(4.0)
(3.0)(3.0) (3.2) (3.5)(4.0)(4.3)(4.5)
(5.0)
(6.0)
(5.5)
Source: Bloomberg, PL Research
Calendar Year‐to‐date
(%)
4.0
2.0
-
(2.0)
(4.0)
(6.0)
(8.0)
(10.0)
(12.0)
(14.0)
(16.0)
(1.6)
1.6
(2.7)
(3.7)
(6.2)
(7.6)
(14.3)
(2.6)
(4.7) (5.1) (6.1)
(8.3)
(8.3)
(9.6)
(8.9)
(12.6)
Source: Bloomberg, PL Research
Adoption of ultra loose monetary policy
Year‐on‐Year
and massive fiscal stimulus lead to sharp
weakening of Japanese YEN as desired by
the policy makers there. Slow down in
China manifesting in weakening demand
for resources from Australia leading to
weakening in its currency
(%)
10.0
5.0
-
(5.0)
(10.0)
(15.0)
(5.1)
3.9
(0.7)
(3.9)
0.9
(0.9)
(0.7)(1.1)
4.4
1.2
(3.5) (4.0)
(8.1)
(11.0) (10.3)
(20.0)
(25.0)
(21.4)
Source: Bloomberg, PL Research
July 8, 2013 23

Apr-Jun 2013 Earnings Preview
Global Agricultural Commodities
Performance of Global Agricultural Commodities
120
110
100
90
80
70
Soya
Rice
Corn
Wheat
Plam Oil
Sugar
60
Jul-12
Aug-12
Sep-12
Oct-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Source: Bloomberg, PL Research
Month‐on‐Month Performance
(%)
2.0
-
(2.0)
(4.0)
(6.0)
(8.0)
(10.0)
(12.0)
(14.0)
0.4
(2.9)
(6.1) (6.3)
(7.2)
(11.7)
Palm Oil Sugar Wheat Rice Soya Corn
Source: Bloomberg, PL Research
July 8, 2013 24

Apr-Jun 2013 Earnings Preview
Global Industrial Commodities
Month‐on‐Month
(%)
4.0
2.0
-
(2.0)
(4.0)
(6.0)
(8.0)
(10.0)
(12.0)
(14.0)
2.6
Brent
crude
(6.2)
(8.6)
(10.3)
(11.3)
(12.2) (12.6)
Zinc Copper Lead Aluminium Thermal Nickel
Coal
Source: Bloomberg, PL Research
Calendar Year‐to‐date
-
(5.0)
(4.4)
(10.0)
(%)
(15.0)
(20.0)
(11.3)
(14.2)
(12.9)
(15.5) (15.9)
(25.0)
Brent
crude
Zinc Copper Lead Aluminium Thermal
Coal
(22.2)
Nickel
Source: Bloomberg, PL Research
Anaemic Global growth expectations
Year‐on‐Year
weighs down on demand for most
industrial commodities. Brent and Lead
being the exceptions
15.0
10.0
5.0
9.0
7.6
-
(%)
(5.0)
(10.0)
(15.0)
(20.0)
(25.0)
Brent
crude
(4.7)
(11.9)
(9.7)
(13.4)
Zinc Copper Lead Aluminium Thermal
Coal
(20.6)
Nickel
Source: Bloomberg, PL Research
July 8, 2013 25

Apr-Jun 2013 Earnings Preview
NIFTY: Earnings growth and valuations
Nifty EPS at Rs356.6, Rs391.4 and Rs457.0
to grow at 1.4%, 9.7% and 16.8%
respectively for FY13, FY14 & FY15
NIFTY is currently trading at 16.3x FY13,
14.8xFY14 and 12.7x FY15 estimated
free‐float earnings
Nifty trading at 1.0% discount to its tenyear
average of one‐year forward multiple
We estimate the free-float EPS for NIFTY companies in FY13, FY14 and FY15 at
Rs356.6, Rs391.4 and Rs457.0, respectively, representing a YoY growth of 1.4%, 9.7%
and 16.8%, respectively. Technology (18.2% YoY growth), FMCG (14.0% YoY growth)
and Auto (13.4% YoY growth) are likely to lead the charge in net profit growth in
FY14, while Cement (5.2% YoY growth), Metals (5.6% YoY growth) and BFSI (6.5%
YoY growth) are expected to be the laggards.
NIFTY is currently trading at 16.3x FY13, 14.8x FY14 and 12.7x FY15 estimated freefloat
earnings. As the chart below indicates, the last ten-year average for NIFTY’s
one-year forward PE is 14.4x. Thus, Nifty is currently trading at 14.3x i.e. at 1.0%
discount to its ten-year average of one-year forward multiple.
Nifty 1‐yr forward PE
30.0
25.0
20.0
15.0
Average
14.4
10.0
5.0
Jun-03
Oct-03
Feb-04
Jun-04
Oct-04
Feb-05
Jun-05
Oct-05
Feb-06
Jun-06
Oct-06
Feb-07
Jun-07
Oct-07
Feb-08
Jun-08
Oct-08
Feb-09
Jun-09
Oct-09
Feb-10
Jun-10
Oct-10
Feb-11
Jun-11
Oct-11
Feb-12
Jun-12
Oct-12
Feb-13
Jun-13
Source: Bloomberg, PL Research
MSCI India trading at 23% premium to
MSCI Asia (Ex‐Japan), last ten‐year average
premium is 22%
MSCI India Premium to MSCI Asia (Ex‐Japan)
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
-30%
10 year Avg.
22%
Jun-03
Oct-03
Feb-04
Jun-04
Oct-04
Feb-05
Jun-05
Oct-05
Feb-06
Jun-06
Oct-06
Feb-07
Jun-07
Oct-07
Feb-08
Jun-08
Oct-08
Feb-09
Jun-09
Oct-09
Feb-10
Jun-10
Oct-10
Feb-11
Jun-11
Oct-11
Feb-12
Jun-12
Oct-12
Feb-13
Jun-13
Source: Bloomberg, PL Research
July 8, 2013 26

Apr-Jun 2013 Earnings Preview
The chart above indicates MSCI India’s premium to MSCI Asia (excl. Japan) over the
last ten years. India has always traded at a premium to Asia (excl. Japan) due to its
healthier ROE, superior earnings growth and lower contribution of non-commodity
plays. The average of last ten-year’s premium is 22%. MSCI India is currently trading
at 23% premium to MSCI Asia (excl. Japan).
Top Picks
We expect the markets to remain volatile and trade broadly in the range of 5600-
6000. Although the rupee has been under pressure over the last few months we
believe that it should stabilize at the current levels due to sharp contraction in trade
and current account deficit for the next few months. Improving trade and current
account deficit over the next few months primarily due to an expected sharp fall in
gold imports, bountiful monsoons leading to cooling off of food and consumer
inflation would act as positives to goad the RBI into considering lowering rates.
However, it would be weighed against sharp plunge in the Rupee and its impact on
rise in Imported Inflation and increase in fuel and fertiliser subsidies due to increase
in under-recoveries. This would act as a constraint on RBI for lowering interest rates.
On balance we feel that the RBI would wait for the turbulence in the currency
markets to subside and then move forward on lowering interest rates. Government’s
massive drive in approving long pending infrastructure projects should act as a
catalyst in helping to revive investment cycle over the next couple of quarters.
Large Caps
! ITC ! Infosys ! ICICI Bank
! NTPC ! Tata Motors ! Larsen & Toubro
! Wipro ! Mahindra & Mahindra ! Axis Bank
! Hindustan Zinc ! Adani Port & SEZ ! YES Bank
! Shree Cement ! Ranbaxy Laboratories
Mid‐Caps
! LIC Housing Finance ! Britannia Industries ! Thermax
! United Phosphorus ! Jammu & Kashmir Bank ! Crompton Greaves
! KSB Pumps ! MT Educare
July 8, 2013 27

Apr-Jun 2013 Earnings Preview
Top Picks Summary
Large Caps
CMP
(Rs.)
TP
(Rs)
Upside
Mcap
(Rs bn)
Revenue
Growth (%)
Earnings
Growth (%)
RoE (%) PER (x) P/BV (x)
2014E 2015E 2014E 2015E 2014E 2015E 2014E 2015E 2014E 2015E
ITC 347 350 1.0% 2,710.6 15.5 16.8 15.0 21.3 37.3 39.8 31.8 26.2 11.2 9.8
Infosys 2,468 2,900 17.5% 1,411.8 15.0 11.0 9.1 8.0 23.8 22.0 13.7 12.7 3.0 2.6
ICICI Bank 1,028 1,300 26.5% 1,190.5 18.1 14.6 13.6 15.3 13.5 14.2 12.6 10.9 1.6 1.5
NTPC 140 179 27.6% 1,157.7 12.7 10.6 16.1 6.3 12.5 12.2 10.9 10.2 1.3 1.2
Tata Motors 288 335 16.6% 959.8 16.2 15.0 13.0 17.1 25.6 24.9 8.1 6.9 1.9 1.6
Larsen & Toubro 1,403 1,645 17.3% 863.4 13.3 15.2 4.5 16.5 15.4 15.9 18.2 15.6 2.7 2.3
Wipro 356 410 15.3% 875.6 9.9 10.0 6.6 7.4 21.5 20.1 13.3 12.4 2.7 2.3
Mahindra & Mahindra 948 1,098 15.9% 620.5 13.5 11.7 18.7 10.7 24.0 22.4 16.0 14.5 3.5 3.0
Axis Bank 1,253 1,650 31.7% 586.1 21.4 19.9 12.2 17.5 16.8 17.2 10.1 8.6 1.6 1.4
Hindustan Zinc 101 150 47.7% 427.6 5.3 4.2 (2.7) 6.3 19.2 17.8 6.4 6.0 1.1 1.0
Adani Port & SEZ 149 180 20.6% 298.9 28.2 21.9 15.1 23.6 25.4 24.6 16.0 12.9 3.5 2.9
YES Bank 467 550 17.8% 167.4 26.4 20.3 20.2 14.9 24.3 23.0 10.7 9.3 2.4 2.0
Shree Cement 4,560 5,150 12.9% 158.9 17.0 15.7 10.4 18.6 23.8 22.1 15.6 13.1 3.3 2.6
Ranbaxy Laboratories 343 559 63.2% 145.0 9.0 12.9 150.4 33.7 44.1 38.9 6.3 4.7 2.3 1.5
Mid‐Caps
LIC Housing Finance 225 315 40.2% 113.5 28.1 23.2 27.2 23.4 18.6 19.7 8.7 7.1 1.5 1.3
Britannia Industries 669 812 21.3% 79.9 15.8 16.7 26.1 30.4 41.4 43.7 27.1 20.8 10.2 8.2
Thermax 624 652 4.5% 74.4 4.4 9.3 13.4 24.6 17.1 18.4 21.5 17.2 3.4 3.0
United Phosphorus 136 185 36.2% 60.1 12.5 11.5 12.5 13.8 18.6 18.1 6.4 5.6 1.1 0.9
Jammu & Kashmir Bank 1,220 1,600 31.2% 59.1 10.3 13.3 (4.3) 12.2 19.3 18.8 5.9 5.2 1.1 0.9
Crompton Greaves 90 109 21.2% 57.4 9.8 11.4 56.8 55.6 10.8 15.1 13.6 8.8 1.4 1.2
KSB Pumps 203 270 33.0% 7.1 8.0 12.0 21.2 23.0 15.2 17.1 10.0 8.2 1.5 1.4
MT Educare 99 130 31.3% 3.9 36.4 22.0 35.8 30.3 22.8 26.0 16.0 12.3 3.4 3.0
Source: PL Research
July 8, 2013 28

Apr-Jun 2013 Earnings Preview
Nifty Valuation
Weight‐
Weight‐
FY12 FY13 FY14E FY15E
age (%)
age (%)
FY12 FY13 FY14E FY15E
Banking & Fin. 28.8% Cement 3.4%
PER (x) 14.9 12.9 12.1 10.1 PER (x) 21.4 16.7 15.9 13.5
PAT Growth (%) 26.8 15.6 6.5 20.5 PAT Growth (%) 10.1 28.1 5.2 17.6
FMCG 14.6% Telecom 1.9%
PER (x) 46.2 38.4 33.7 28.2 PER (x) 27.6 51.6 25.8 18.0
PAT Growth (%) 35.9 20.1 14.0 19.8 PAT Growth (%) (29.6) (46.6) 99.7 43.4
Oil & Gas 12.7% Real Estate 0.4%
PER (x) 10.8 10.4 9.7 8.7 PER (x) 25.4 40.9 36.7 28.3
PAT Growth (%) 13.6 3.9 7.3 11.2 PAT Growth (%) (20.5) (37.8) 11.3 29.9
Technology 11.6% Nifty as on July 8 5,812
PER (x) 23.8 19.1 16.1 14.8
PAT Growth (%) 20.3 24.6 18.2 9.2 EPS (Rs) ‐ Free Float 351.9 356.6 391.4 457.0
Growth (%) 8.1 1.4 9.7 16.8
Eng. & Power 8.5% PER (x) 16.5 16.3 14.8 12.7
PER (x) 12.7 12.2 11.3 10.5
PAT Growth (%) 5.8 4.1 7.7 7.5 EPS (Rs) ‐ Free Float
Nifty Cons. 351.9 356.6 405.0 469.4
Auto 8.4% Var. (PLe v/s Cons.) (%) ‐ ‐ (3.4) (2.6)
PER (x) 12.1 13.0 11.5 9.7
PAT Growth (%) 23.1 (6.6) 13.4 17.8
Sensex as on July 8 19,325
Pharma 6.0%
PER (x) 76.5 27.1 27.2 17.9 EPS (Rs) ‐ Free Float 1,149.8 1,128.8 1,249.5 1,462.1
PAT Growth (%) (51.3) 182.2 (0.2) 52.0 Growth (%) 8.5 (1.8) 10.7 17.0
PER (x) 16.8 17.1 15.5 13.2
Metals 3.8%
PER (x) 8.8 9.0 8.6 8.0 Sensex Cons. 1,149.8 1,128.8 1,332.0 1,541.4
PAT Growth (%) 1.2 (2.6) 5.6 7.5 Var. (PLe v/s Cons.) (%) ‐ ‐ (6.2) (5.1)
Cons.: Bloomberg Estimates
For Detailed Break‐up of Company & Sector wise please refer Page No. 177‐185
July 8, 2013 29

Apr-Jun 2013 Earnings Preview
Balwindar Singh
balwindarsingh@plindia.com
+91-22-6632 2239
Top picks
Dhanuka Agritech
United Phosphorus
Agri Products & Chemicals
! On an aggregate basis, we expect our universe to report sales de-growth of 5.4%
YoY due to lower complex fertiliser sales volumes. EBITDA is likely to decline by
11.3% YoY, while we expect PAT to report de-growth of 26.7% YoY.
! Q1FY14E likely to be weak for complex fertilizer companies: We expect
Q1FY14E to be weak for complex fertilizer companies due to huge inventory in
the system and reduction in subsidy as well as market prices. Preliminary data
from the Ministry of Fertilisers indicates that sales volumes for Apr/May’2013
declined by 60% YoY across the industry. Urea sales declined by 8% YoY during
the same period.
! Subsidies being gradually released; interest cost likely to remain high in
Q1FY14E: Q4FY13 witnessed huge subsidy receivables pending from the govt.
Though companies generally receive the entire amount of pending subsidies
from the govt. post the allocation of budgetary funds, this year we have
witnessed lower release of funds from the govt. Hence, companies are still
having substantial pending subsidy receivables due to which interest costs are
likely to remain high in Q1FY14E.
! Agrochemicals companies’ performance will be encouraging during Q1FY14E:
Though Q1 is generally a placement season for agrochemicals companies while
the actual consumption happens in Q2, we expect agrochemicals performance
to be encouraging during the quarter. Our channel checks suggests that
agrochemicals inventory is lower than last year (last year’s agrochemicals
inventory at the beginning of kharif season was double the requirement).
Hence, with the timely arrival of rains and consequent pick-up in sowing, we
expect agrochemicals consumption to remain strong during FY14E.
! Sowing picks up with the onset of monsoons: Recent data with the Ministry of
Agriculture shows that sowing has been done in 251 lakh hectares this year
compared to 135.9 lakh hectares last year. All crops, except sugarcane, have
witnessed increase in acreages this year. Coarse cereals and oilseeds have
witnessed the largest increase in acreage due to increased govt. focus on
boosting production of these crops.
! Crop shifts being witnessed towards oilseeds: Recent data with the Ministry of
Agriculture shows that planting of oilseeds has taken off on a positive note and
few states such as Gujarat, Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh are reporting higher
acreage. Over the last few seasons, we have witnessed that oilseeds (groundnut
and soybean) compete with cash crops such as cotton as farmers prefer to sow
those which have offered better returns.
! Timely arrival of rains will boost agri‐inputs consumption: Timely arrival of
rains has turned out to be a relief for the agri sector, especially after the drought
witnessed last year. Our interactions with dealers/companies/farmers suggest
that sentiments have improved and FY14E is likely to witness revival in demand
of agri-inputs.
July 8, 2013 30

Apr-Jun 2013 Earnings Preview
! MSPs increased by 5% for kharif season (lower than average of 12% for last
three years): Recently, the Cabinet Committee of Economic Affairs (CCEA)
announced the MSPs for kharif season 2013-14. On an average, MSPs have been
increased by 5% which is sharply lower than the average hike of 12% effected
during the last three years. The largest increase in MSP was seen in tur and
soyabean where MSPs were hiked in excess of 11% so as to encourage domestic
production and replace imports.
! Agrochemicals companies have increased prices by 5‐6% in May’13; further
increase might be taken to offset impact of rupee depreciation: Our channel
checks suggests that companies have already taken 5-6% price hikes to account
for raw material costs increases during May’13. However, further increase is
likely because of rupee depreciation provided monsoons remain supportive.
! Raw materials prices have softened; however, rupee depreciation is a concern:
Though raw materials prices of ammonia (quoting at $525/mt currently
compared to $625/mt in Mar’13) have softened and phosphoric acid prices have
remained stable, recent rupee depreciation by 8-9% has emerged as a new
problem for the industry. Our recent interactions with companies/channel
checks suggests that companies might increase prices in the near future to pass
on the impact of rupee depreciation provided monsoons remain supportive and
offtake improves.
! Huge inventory of complex fertilizer to limit company level sales growth:
Though we have started witnessing improved offtake by farmers with the timely
arrival of monsoons, huge inventory of complex fertilizers is likely to limit
company level sales growth in FY14E.
! Expect companies to account for price reduction on inventory: Though
companies have made adequate provisioning in Q4FY13 related to higher
marketing costs and rebates on fertilizers, our channel checks suggests that
there may be some impact due to reduction in retail price which companies
might account for in Q1FY14E.
! Gas price revision to further inflate subsidy receivables: Recently, the govt.
hiked the gas prices from $4.2/mmbtu to $8.4/mmbtu effective April 2014.
Because of this gas price increase, urea cost of production will go up which will
be reimbursed by the govt. in the form of higher subsidy. Increase in gas prices
by 1$/mmbtu increases urea subsidy by Rs26bn (assuming exchange rate at 55).
So, total urea subsidy will increase by Rs105bn annually. Companies will be
impacted to the extent of working capital increase. Further, increase in gas
prices is likely to impact profitability for companies producing urea above cut-off
quantity since gas cost is not a pass-through for production above cut-off.
! Dhanuka Agritech and UPL our top picks: Dhanuka (asset-light model, higher
profitability & return ratios, strong revenue visibility, valuation discount to
domestic peers) & United Phos (earnings growth combined with improvement in
return ratios, gradual improvement in balance sheet, attractive valuation
upside) are our top picks.
July 8, 2013 31

Apr-Jun 2013 Earnings Preview
Complex fertilizer sales declined by 60% YoY for the industry during
Apr/May’13
Complex fertiliser sales volumes‐mt
On YTD basis (Apr-May’13), complex fertiliser sales have declined by 60% YoY
(imported volumes declined by 71% YoY, while manufactured volumes declined by
53% YoY). On the other hand, urea sales were lower by 8% YoY during the same
period. We expect urea demand to remain steady; however, company level complex
fertiliser sales would continue to remain under pressure in FY14E. Though we have
started witnessing improved offtake by famers with the timely arrival of monsoons,
huge inventory of complex fertilizers is likely to limit company level sales growth in
FY14E.
Product‐mt FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 YTD FY13 YTDFY14 % change
Imported DAP 5,805,146 7,541,386 6,902,274 5,467,985 319,138 111,745 ‐65.0%
Imported NPK - 1,076,379 3,299,541 1,077,956 210,450 5,326 ‐97.5%
MoP 4,675,723 3,899,849 2,994,530 2,135,938 221,957 107,281 ‐51.7%
Others imported 135,757 88,443 323,505 89,603 7,969 - NA
Total Imported 10,616,626 12,606,057 13,519,850 8,771,482 759,514 224,352 ‐70.5%
Indigenous DAP 4,347,054 3,565,397 4,010,539 3,669,475 400,874 130,243 ‐67.5%
Indigenous NPK 8,062,410 9,151,715 7,769,499 6,224,809 557,793 298,443 ‐46.5%
Other complex indigenous (excl. SSP, TSP) 145,336 556,898 479,583 453,725 51,331 36,431 ‐29.0%
SSP, TSP 119,115 3,483,002 3,438,899 4,007,080 300,599 145,765 ‐51.5%
Total indigenous fert 12,673,915 16,757,012 15,698,520 14,355,089 1,310,597 610,882 ‐53.4%
Total complex fert 23,290,541 29,363,069 29,218,370 23,126,571 2,070,111 835,234 ‐59.7%
Urea 25,233,711 27,115,837 29,356,568 30,159,512 3,362,803 3,104,677 ‐7.7%
Source: Ministry of Fertilisers, PL Research
Sowing picks up with the onset of monsoons
Recent data with the Ministry of Agriculture shows that sowing has been done in 251
lakh hectares this year compared to 135.9 lakh hectares last year. All crops except
sugarcane have witnessed increase in acreages this year. Increase in MSPs of
oilseeds and pulses have given a boost to their production.
July 8, 2013 32

Apr-Jun 2013 Earnings Preview
Sowing patterns across crops‐lakh hectares
Crop Area in 2013‐14 Area in 2012‐13 YoY gr.
Rice 39.1 29.7 32%
Pulses 10.5 - NA
Coarse cereals 29.3 5.6 425%
Oilseeds 60.7 11.8 413%
Sugarcane 47.4 49.4 ‐4%
Cotton 55.8 31.4 78%
Jute & Mesta 8.2 8.1 1%
Total 251.0 135.9 85%
Source: Ministry of Agriculture, PL Research
Average MSP hike of 5% for kharif 2013‐14 (lower than average of
12% of last three years)
The govt. has announced the MSPs for kharif 2013-14; average MSP hike is to the
tune of 5% which is sharply lower than the average hikes of 12% effected during the
last three years. For certain crops like urad, jowar, ragi, sunflower seed and
nigerseed, the MSPs have been kept unchanged. Paddy rates have been hiked by
5.0%. However, the largest increase in MSP was seen in tur and soyabean where
MSPs were hiked in excess of 11% so as to encourage domestic production and
replace imports.
MSP YoY increases
YoY 2006‐07 2007‐08 2008‐09 2009‐10 2010‐11 2011‐12 2012‐13 2013‐14 Current
Paddy
Rs/qtl
(i) Common variety 1.8% 11.2% 31.8% 17.6% 0.0% 8.0% 15.7% 4.8% 1,310
(ii) A - Grade 1.7% 10.7% 30.4% 17.0% 0.0% 7.8% 15.3% 5.1% 1345
Wheat 15.4% 33.3% 8.0% 0.0% 1.9% 1.8% 14.7%
Tur / Arhar 0.7% 9.9% 29.0% 15.0% 30.4% 6.7% 20.3% 11.7% 4,300
Moong 0.0% 11.8% 48.2% 9.5% 14.9% 10.4% 25.7% 2.3% 4,500
Sesame 0.6% 1.3% 74.1% 3.6% 1.8% 17.2% 23.5% 7.1% 4,500
Urad 0.0% 11.8% 48.2% 0.0% 15.1% 13.8% 30.3% 0.0% 4,300
Jowar (Hybrid) 2.9% 11.1% 40.0% 0.0% 4.8% 11.4% 53.1% 0.0% 1,500
Jowar (Maldandi) 11.7% 38.7% 0.0% 4.7% 11.1% 52.0% 0.0% 1,520
Bajra 2.9% 11.1% 40.0% 0.0% 4.8% 11.4% 19.9% 6.4% 1,250
Maize 0.0% 14.8% 35.5% 0.0% 4.8% 11.4% 19.9% 11.5% 1,310
Ragi 11.1% 52.5% 0.0% 5.5% 8.8% 42.9% 0.0% 1,500
Cotton (Medium Stable) 1.7% 38.9% 0.0% 0.0% 12.0% 28.6% 2.8% 3,700
Cotton (Long Stable) 0.5% 2.0% 47.8% 0.0% 0.0% 10.0% 18.2% 2.6% 4,000
Groundnut-in-shell 0.0% 2.0% 35.5% 0.0% 9.5% 17.4% 37.0% 8.1% 4,000
Sunflower seed 0.0% 0.7% 46.7% 0.0% 6.1% 19.1% 32.1% 0.0% 3,700
Soyabean (Black) 0.0% 1.1% 48.4% 0.0% 3.7% 17.9% 33.3% 13.6% 2,500
Soyabean (Yellow) 1.0% 2.9% 32.4% 0.0% 3.6% 17.4% 32.5% 14.3% 2,560
Nigerseed 1.7% 1.6% 94.0% 0.0% 1.9% 18.4% 20.7% 0.0% 3,500
Source: Ministry of Agriculture, PL Research
July 8, 2013 33

Apr-Jun 2013 Earnings Preview
Raw material prices ease however rupee depreciation a cause for
worry
Compared to Mar 2013, ammonia prices are lower by 16%, whereas phosphoric acid
prices are stable. Though raw materials prices have cooled off from their highs,
recent rupee depreciation has emerged as a new problem for the industry. Our
channel checks suggests that companies had reduced prices in May 2013; however,
due to recent rupee depreciation, they might increase prices in the near future to
pass on the impact of rupee depreciation provided monsoons remain supportive and
offtake improves.
Phosphoric Acid
1,200
1,100
(US$ MT)
1,000
900
800
700
600
Apr-11
Jun-11
Aug-11
Oct-11
Dec-11
Feb-12
Apr-12
Jun-12
Aug-12
Oct-12
Dec-12
Feb-13
Apr-13
Jun-13
Ammonia
780
700
(US$ MT)
620
540
460
380
300
Apr-11
Jun-11
Aug-11
Oct-11
Dec-11
Feb-12
Apr-12
Jun-12
Aug-12
Oct-12
Dec-12
Feb-13
Apr-13
Jun-13
Source: Bloomberg, PL Research
Source: Bloomberg, PL Research
Stock Performance
Absolute
Relative to Sensex
1M 3M 6M 12M 1M 3M 6M 12M
Chambal Fertilizers & Chemicals (16.8) (28.1) (47.2) (53.8) (16.3) (32.9) (45.1) (64.1)
Coromandel International (8.3) (2.8) (32.2) (34.5) (7.7) (7.6) (30.0) (44.8)
Deepa k Fertili s ers & Petrochemi cal s Corporation (1.7) (1.2) (26.1) (32.5) (1.2) (6.0) (24.0) (42.8)
Dhanuka Agritech (0.0) 11.5 3.5 36.3 0.5 6.7 5.6 26.0
Gujarat State Fertilisers & Chemicals 7.3 6.6 (14.5) (25.1) 7.8 1.7 (12.4) (35.4)
Rallis India 3.4 13.8 (7.3) (0.1) 4.0 9.0 (5.2) (10.4)
Tata Chemicals (10.2) (11.3) (26.6) (14.2) (9.7) (16.1) (24.5) (24.5)
United Phosphorus (12.9) 14.0 (1.3) 8.2 (12.3) 9.2 0.8 (2.0)
Source: Bloomberg, PL Research
July 8, 2013 34

Apr-Jun 2013 Earnings Preview
Summary Financials ‐ Quarterly (Rs m)
Chambal Fertilizers
& Chemi ca ls
Coromandel
International
Deepak Fertili s ers
& Petrochemica ls
Corpora ti on
Dhanuka Agritech
Q1FY14E Q1FY13 YoY gr. (%) Q4FY13 QoQ gr. (%) 12MFY14E 12MFY13 YoY gr. (%)
Sales 14,528 13,644 6.5 15,442 (5.9) 75,020 82,020 (8.5)
EBITDA 1,687 1,916 (12.0) 1,257 34.2 8,009 6,842 17.1
Margins (%) 11.6 14.0 (243)bps 8.1 347 bps 10.7 8.3 233 bps
PAT 698 812 (14.0) 229 204.3 3,114 2,266 37.5
Sales 11,541 18,545 (37.8) 20,781 (44.5) 100,462 89,249 12.6
EBITDA 1,158 2,108 (45.1) 826 40.3 9,247 6,591 40.3
Margins (%) 10.0 11.4 (134)bps 4.0 606 bps 9.2 7.4 182 bps
PAT 371 1,151 (67.8) 102 263.3 5,105 3,469 47.2
Sales 6,415 6,341 1.2 6,593 (2.7) 28,063 26,101 7.5
EBITDA 856 1,022 (16.2) 700 22.3 3,876 3,221 20.4
Margins (%) 13.3 16.1 (277)bps 10.6 273 bps 13.8 12.3 147 bps
PAT 416 505 (17.6) 291 42.9 1,921 1,519 26.5
Sales 1,292 1,081 19.5 1,328 (2.8) 6,979 5,869 18.9
EBITDA 196 158 24.6 243 (19.3) 1,054 865 21.8
Margins (%) 15.2 14.6 62 bps 18.3 (311)bps 15.1 14.7 36 bps
PAT 139 112 24.0 179 (22.2) 758 644 17.6
Sales 9,299 14,118 (34.1) 16,960 (45.2) 58,031 61,967 (6.4)
Gujarat State
EBITDA 1,331 2,372 (43.9) 1,671 (20.3) 8,474 7,813 8.5
Fertilisers &
Chemi ca l s
Margins (%) 14.3 16.8 (248)bps 9.9 446 bps 14.6 12.6 199 bps
PAT 715 1,727 (58.6) 984 (27.4) 5,526 5,187 6.5
Sales 3,971 3,453 15.0 2,849 39.4 16,224 14,582 11.3
Rallis India
EBITDA 515 415 24.2 282 82.8 2,557 2,131 20.0
Margins (%) 13.0 12.0 97 bps 9.9 308 bps 15.8 14.6 115 bps
PAT 291 213 36.2 113 157.0 1,526 1,157 31.9
Sales 31,838 30,661 3.8 33,915 (6.1) 153,446 148,061 3.6
Tata Chemicals
EBITDA 4,638 4,948 (6.3) 4,706 (1.4) 23,109 21,180 9.1
Margins (%) 14.6 16.1 (157)bps 13.9 69 bps 15.1 14.3 76 bps
PAT 1,572 1,563 0.6 2,123 (26.0) 8,404 7,735 8.6
Sales 25,119 22,142 13.4 28,207 (11.0) 103,392 91,866 12.5
United Phosphorus
EBITDA 4,521 3,864 17.0 5,372 (15.8) 19,128 16,549 15.6
Margins (%) 18.0 17.5 55 bps 19.0 (104)bps 18.5 18.0 49 bps
PAT 1,876 2,209 (15.1) 3,137 (40.2) 9,378 8,339 12.5
Source: Company Data, PL Research
July 8, 2013 35

Apr-Jun 2013 Earnings Preview
Consolidated Sectoral Data
Key Figures (Rs m)
2013 2014E 2015E
Net Sales 519,715 541,617 589,202
Growth (%) 7.7 4.2 8.8
EBITDA 65,191 75,454 84,292
Margin (%) 12.5 13.9 14.3
PAT 30,315 35,732 41,307
Growth (%) (17.7) 17.9 15.6
PE (x) 8.7 7.4 6.4
Quarterly Table (Rs m)
Apr‐Jun'13 Apr‐Jun'12 YoY gr. (%) Jan‐Mar'13 QoQ gr. (%)
Net Sales 104,001 109,987 (5.4) 126,074 (17.5)
EBITDA 14,904 16,803 (11.3) 15,056 (1.0)
Margin (%) 14.3 15.3 (95)bps 11.9 239 bps
PAT (Excl . Ex Items ) 6,077 8,292 (26.7) 7,159 (15.1)
Note: Revenue, EBITDA and PAT numbers are arrived by totaling corresponding numbers of all companies under our coverage in this
sector.
Chambal Fertilisers
Rating
BUY
Price (Rs ) 37
Target Price (Rs) 67
M/Cap (Rs bn) 15.5
Shares o/s (m) 416.2
Key Figures (Rs m)
Y/e March FY13 FY14E FY15E
Net Sales 82,020 75,020 80,155
EBITDA 6,842 8,009 8,683
Margin (%) 8.3 10.7 10.8
PAT 2,266 3,114 3,599
EPS (Rs ) 5.4 7.5 8.6
Growth (%) (24.4) 37.5 15.6
RoE (%) 12.8 15.9 16.4
PE (x) 6.9 5.0 4.3
P / BV (x) 0.8 0.8 0.7
EV / E (x) 9.0 6.2 5.4
We expect Chambal to report urea revenue growth of 19.0% YoY to Rs10.5bn, driven
primarily by pricing increase (due to increase in weighted average gas prices). Urea
volumes are likely to increase by 5% YoY to 550,000mt. Trading revenues are
expected to decline by 26% YoY to Rs2.2bn due to lower fertiliser volumes. We
expect urea to report EBIT margins of 13.5% (-70bps YoY/-30bps QoQ), while trading
margins are expected at 5.0% (-900bps YoY/120bps QoQ). Shipping business is likely
to remain under pressure.
Quarterly Table (Rs m)
Y/e March
Q1
FY14E
Q1
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Q4
FY13
12M
FY14E
12M
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Net Sales 14,528 13,644 6.5 15,442 75,020 82,020 (8.5)
EBITDA 1,687 1,916 (12.0) 1,257 8,009 6,842 17.1
Margin (%) 11.6 14.0 (243)bps 8.1 10.7 8.3 233 bps
Reported PAT 698 771 (9.4) 229 3,114 2,266 37.5
PAT (Excl. Ex Items) 698 812 (14.0) 229 3,114 2,266 37.5
Operating Metrics
Revenue Gr. (%)
Urea 19.0 25.4 (639)bps 3.9 6.2 19.9 (1,372)bps
Trading (26.2) 4.7 NA (38.0) (31.6) 11.4 NA
EBIT margins (%)
Urea 13.5 14.2 (67)bps 13.8 12.7 13.2 (52)bps
July 8, 2013 36

Apr-Jun 2013 Earnings Preview
Coromandel International
Rating
Accumulate
Price (Rs ) 180
Target Price (Rs) 220
M/Cap (Rs bn) 50.8
Shares o/s (m) 282.6
We expect Coromandel’s (excl. Liberty) manufactured volumes to decline by 35%
YoY, while trading volumes are likely to decline by 62% YoY. However, non-subsidy
business is likely to remain strong and we expect revenue growth of 18% YoY.
Resultant, total revenues are expected to decline by 38% YoY. EBITDA margins are
likely to decline by 140bps YoY to 10.0% due to lower operating leverage and
pressure on fertiliser margins in the near term. We expect Coromandel to report
EBITDA of Rs1.2bn, -45% YoY. Interest costs are likely to remain high at Rs520m, -3%
YoY. Company is likely to report PAT of Rs371m, -68% YoY with EPS of Rs1.3.
Key Figures (Rs m)
Y/e March FY13 FY14E FY15E
Net Sales 89,249 100,462 112,332
EBITDA 6,591 9,247 10,850
Margin (%) 7.4 9.2 9.7
PAT 3,469 5,105 6,341
EPS (Rs) 12.3 18.1 22.4
Growth (%) (44.3) 47.2 24.1
RoE (%) 15.1 21.9 23.7
PE (x) 14.6 9.9 8.0
P / BV (x) 2.3 2.1 1.8
EV / E (x) 11.4 7.7 6.3
Quarterly Table (Rs m)
Y/e March
Q1
FY14E
Q1
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Q4
FY13
12M
FY14E
12M
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Net Sales 11,541 18,545 (37.8) 20,781 100,462 89,249 12.6
EBITDA 1,158 2,108 (45.1) 826 9,247 6,591 40.3
Margin (%) 10.0 11.4 (134)bps 4.0 9.2 7.4 182 bps
Reported PAT 371 1,151 (67.8) 117 5,105 4,321 18.1
PAT (Excl. Ex Items ) 371 1,151 (67.8) 102 5,105 3,469 47.2
Deepak Fertilisers
Rating
Accumulate
Price (Rs ) 95
Target Price (Rs) 130
M/Cap (Rs bn) 8.4
Shares o/s (m) 88.2
Key Figures (Rs m)
Y/e March FY13 FY14E FY15E
Net Sales 26,101 28,063 30,141
EBITDA 3,221 3,876 4,379
Margin (%) 12.3 13.8 14.5
PAT 1,519 1,921 2,257
EPS (Rs) 17.2 21.8 25.6
Growth (%) (35.4) 26.5 17.5
RoE (%) 12.0 13.9 14.7
PE (x) 5.5 4.4 3.7
P / BV (x) 0.6 0.6 0.5
EV / E (x) 5.4 4.4 3.8
We expect chemicals to report revenue growth of 14.0% YoY driven by higher
chemical prices and trading revenues. On the fertiliser side, manufactured revenues
are likely to decline by 12.5% YoY due to lower fertiliser prices. We expect
manufactured fertiliser volumes to increase by 5% YoY. Trading revenues are
expected to decline by 53% YoY due to lower volumes. Though we expect chemical
margins to remain lower by 700bps on a YoY basis, they are expected to improve
170bps QoQ due to softening of raw materials prices. We expect fertiliser margins at
9.0% (140bps YoY/-400bps QoQ).
Quarterly Table (Rs m)
Y/e March
Q1
FY14E
Q1
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Q4
FY13
12M
FY14E
12M
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Net Sales 6,415 6,341 1.2 6,593 28,063 26,101 7.5
EBITDA 856 1,022 (16.2) 700 3,876 3,221 20.4
Margin (%) 13.3 16.1 (277)bps 10.6 13.8 12.3 147 bps
Reported PAT 416 455 (8.6) 291 1,921 1,519 26.5
PAT (Excl. Ex Items) 416 505 (17.6) 291 1,921 1,519 26.5
Sales volumes‐ mt
TAN 85,626 68,501 25.0 63,287 302,477 233,337 29.6
Nitric Acid 35,203 33,527 5.0 23,652 130,309 118,675 9.8
IPA 22,035 21,393 3.0 16,711 81,843 75,632 8.2
Manufactured fertilis 31,774 30,261 5.0 61,475 171,178 177,198 (3.4)
July 8, 2013 37

Apr-Jun 2013 Earnings Preview
Dhanuka Agritech
Rating
BUY
Price (Rs ) 132
Target Price (Rs) 160
M/Cap (Rs bn) 6.6
Shares o/s (m) 50.0
We expect Dhanuka to report revenue growth of 20.0% YoY. Though Q1 is generally
a placement season for agrochemicals, while the actual consumption happens in Q2,
our channel checks suggests that Q1 has been encouraging for domestic companies.
New launches are also expected to gain momentum over the course of FY14E. We
expect Dhanuka to report EBITDA of Rs196m, 25% YoY with margins of 15.2%. The
company is likely to report PAT of Rs139m, 24% YoY.
Key Figures (Rs m)
Y/e March FY13 FY14E FY15E
Net Sales 5,869 6,979 8,100
EBITDA 865 1,054 1,239
Margin (%) 14.7 15.1 15.3
PAT 644 758 874
EPS (Rs) 12.9 15.2 17.5
Growth (%) 12.8 17.6 15.2
RoE (%) 27.0 26.0 24.6
PE (x) 10.3 8.7 7.6
P / BV (x) 2.5 2.1 1.7
EV / E (x) 8.0 6.5 5.5
Quarterly Table (Rs m)
Y/e March
Q1
FY14E
Q1
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Q4
FY13
12M
FY14E
12M
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Net Sales 1,292 1,081 19.5 1,328 6,979 5,869 18.9
EBITDA 196 158 24.6 243 1,054 865 21.8
Margin (%) 15.2 14.6 62 bps 18.3 15.1 14.7 36 bps
Reported PAT 139 112 24.0 179 758 644 17.6
PAT (Excl. Ex Items) 139 112 24.0 179 758 644 17.6
GSFC
Rating
Accumulate
Price (Rs ) 62
Target Price (Rs) 66
M/Cap (Rs bn) 24.6
Shares o/s (m) 398.5
Key Figures (Rs m)
Y/e March FY13 FY14E FY15E
Net Sales 61,967 58,031 61,509
EBITDA 7,813 8,474 9,498
Margin (%) 12.6 14.6 15.4
PAT 5,187 5,526 6,250
EPS (Rs) 13.0 13.9 15.7
Growth (%) (32.3) 6.5 13.1
RoE (%) 13.9 13.2 13.4
PE (x) 4.7 4.5 3.9
P / BV (x) 0.6 0.6 0.5
EV / E (x) 4.9 3.4 2.7
We expect fertiliser revenues to decline by 57% YoY to Rs3.9bn due to lower urea as
well as trading volumes. Company had taken annual maintenance shutdown in Q1;
hence, urea volumes are expected to be lower. Chemicals margins continue to
remain under pressure due to decline in capro-benzene spreads. However, on a QoQ
basis, spreads have marginally improved and are currently ruling close to $1,050/mt.
We have modelled for chemicals margins at 13.5% (-820bps YoY /200bps QoQ).
Quarterly Table (Rs m)
Y/e March
Q1
FY14E
Q1
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Q4
FY13
12M
FY14E
12M
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Net Sales 9,299 14,118 (34.1) 16,960 58,031 61,967 (6.4)
EBITDA 1,331 2,372 (43.9) 1,671 8,474 7,813 8.5
Margin (%) 14.3 16.8 (248)bps 9.9 14.6 12.6 199 bps
Reported PAT 715 1,727 (58.6) 584 5,526 5,187 6.5
PAT (Excl. Ex Items) 715 1,727 (58.6) 984 5,526 5,187 6.5
Operating Metrics
Revenues (Rs m)
Fertiliser 3,863 8,941 (56.8) 12,003 35,316 42,791 (17.5)
Chemicals 5,436 5,177 5.0 4,968 22,715 19,752 15.0
EBIT Margin (%)
Fertiliser 9.0 11.5 (248)bps 8.6 10.4 8.7 169 bps
Chemicals 13.5 21.7 (820)bps 11.5 16.0 17.5 (145)bps
July 8, 2013 38

Apr-Jun 2013 Earnings Preview
Rallis India
Rating
Accumulate
Price (Rs ) 138
Target Price (Rs) 140
M/Cap (Rs bn) 26.8
Shares o/s (m) 194.5
We expect consolidated revenues to increase by 15.0% YoY to Rs4.0bn. Standalone
revenues are expected to increase by 12% YoY, while Metahelix is likely to report
revenue growth of 25% YoY. We expect standalone margins to improve 70bps YoY to
11.1%. Metahelix margins are expected to improve by 120bps YoY to 19.0% driven
by improved operating leverage. On a consol basis, we expect EBITDA of Rs515m,
24% YoY, with margins of 13.0%. However, due to lower interest, we expect PAT to
increase by 36% YoY to Rs291m.
Key Figures (Rs m)
Y/e March FY13 FY14E FY15E
Net Sales 14,582 16,224 18,412
EBITDA 2,131 2,557 2,974
Margin (%) 14.6 15.8 16.2
PAT 1,157 1,526 1,853
EPS (Rs ) 6.0 7.8 9.5
Growth (%) 0.1 31.9 21.4
RoE (%) 19.7 22.8 23.7
PE (x) 23.5 17.8 14.7
P / BV (x) 4.4 3.8 3.2
EV / E (x) 12.9 10.7 9.1
Quarterly Table (Rs m)
Y/e March
Q1
FY14E
Q1
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Q4
FY13
12M
FY14E
12M
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Net Sales 3,971 3,453 15.0 2,849 16,224 14,582 11.3
EBITDA 515 415 24.2 282 2,557 2,131 20.0
Margin (%) 13.0 12.0 97 bps 9.9 15.8 14.6 115 bps
Reported PAT 291 242 20.3 113 1,526 1,191 28.2
PAT (Excl. Ex Items) 291 213 36.2 113 1,526 1,157 31.9
Tata Chemicals
Rating
Accumulate
Price (Rs ) 276
Target Price (Rs) 330
M/Cap (Rs bn) 70.3
Shares o/s (m) 254.8
Key Figures (Rs m)
Y/e March FY13 FY14E FY15E
Net Sales 148,061 153,446 163,305
EBITDA 21,180 23,109 25,003
Margin (%) 14.3 15.1 15.3
PAT 7,735 8,404 9,457
EPS (Rs) 30.4 33.0 37.1
Growth (%) (15.4) 8.6 12.5
RoE (%) 12.1 12.6 13.0
PE (x) 9.1 8.4 7.4
P / BV (x) 1.1 1.0 0.9
EV / E (x) 5.7 5.0 4.5
We expect company to report consolidated revenues of Rs31.8bn, 4% YoY. We
expect standalone sales to increase by 2.2% YoY to Rs15.7bn driven by increase in
chemicals revenues by 15.0% YoY. We expect North America sales to decline by 5%
YoY to Rs6.3bn due to pricing pressures. Europe is likely to report sales de-growth of
9.0% YoY to Rs5.3bn due to lower volumes.
Quarterly Table (Rs m)
Y/e March
Q1
FY14E
Q1
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Q4
FY13
12M
FY14E
12M
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Net Sales 31,838 30,661 3.8 33,915 153,446 148,061 3.6
EBITDA 4,638 4,948 (6.3) 4,706 23,109 21,180 9.1
Margin (%) 14.6 16.1 (157)bps 13.9 15.1 14.3 76 bps
Reported PAT 1,572 1,076 46.1 (1,875) 8,404 7,864 6.9
PAT (Excl. Ex Items) 1,572 1,563 0.6 2,123 8,404 7,735 8.6
Operating Metrics
Standalone sales (Rs m)
Inorganic chemicals 7,898 6,868 15.0 7,743 33,856 29,252 15.7
Fertilisers 6,809 6,747 0.9 12,081 47,196 52,029 (9.3)
EBIT Margins (%)
Inorganic chemicals 24.0 24.5 (46)bps 23.0 24.2 23.5 72 bps
Fertilisers 6.0 6.5 (45)bps 2.9 6.1 5.9 26 bps
July 8, 2013 39

Apr-Jun 2013 Earnings Preview
United Phosphorus
Rating
BUY
Price (Rs ) 136
Target Price (Rs) 185
M/Cap (Rs bn) 60.1
Shares o/s (m) 442.6
Key Figures (Rs m)
Y/e March FY13 FY14E FY15E
Net Sales 91,866 103,392 115,247
EBITDA 16,549 19,128 21,666
Margin (%) 18.0 18.5 18.8
PAT 8,339 9,378 10,676
EPS (Rs) 18.8 21.2 24.1
Growth (%) 29.2 12.5 13.8
RoE (%) 18.9 18.6 18.1
PE (x) 7.2 6.4 5.6
P / BV (x) 1.3 1.1 0.9
EV / E (x) 5.1 4.4 3.7
India is likely to report revenue growth of 11% YoY to Rs6.9bn driven by encouraging
placements. We expect North America to report revenues of Rs7.1bn, 6% YoY. While
there was a delayed start to the season in North America, things have picked up
considerably in the last couple of months (season in North America starts from
February) and planting across crops like soyabean, corn, wheat has been nearly in
line with previous years. RoW is expected to report growth of 24% YoY at Rs6.6bn.
We expect company to report PBT of Rs2.5bn, -2% YoY. However, PAT is likely to
decline by 15% YoY to Rs 1.9bn due to higher minority payments.
Quarterly Table (Rs m)
Y/e March
Q1
FY14E
Q1
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Q4
FY13
12M
FY14E
12M
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Net Sales 25,119 22,142 13.4 28,207 103,392 91,866 12.5
EBITDA 4,521 3,864 17.0 5,372 19,128 16,549 15.6
Margin (%) 18.0 17.5 55 bps 19.0 18.5 18.0 49 bps
Reported PAT 1,876 2,029 (7.5) 3,489 9,378 7,757 20.9
PAT (Excl. Ex Items) 1,876 2,209 (15.1) 3,137 9,378 8,339 12.5
Revenues growth (%)
India 11.0 16.0 (504)bps 24.9 12.0 5.0 700 bps
North America 6.0 32.1 (2,609)bps 48.9 7.0 21.5 (1,454)bps
Europe 6.0 12.0 (597)bps 36.8 4.0 20.8 (1,683)bps
July 8, 2013 40

Apr-Jul 2013 Earnings Preview
Surjit Arora
surjitarora@plindia.com
+91-22-6632 2235
Top picks
Mahindra & Mahindra
Tata Motors
Automobiles
Domestic two‐wheeler flat for the quarter: On account of higher fuel prices, general
inflation and slowdown in the economy, the domestic two-wheeler segment
declined by 0.5% in volume terms during the quarter. Hero Motocorp’s (HMCL’s)
decline was restricted to 5.1% on account of strong 30%+ growth in the scooter
segment. On the other hand, Bajaj Auto (BJA) registered a de-growth of ~7.6% YoY
on account of slowdown in demand and increased competition from HMSI. HMSI
continues to clock impressive volumes with a growth of ~13.3% YoY for the quarter
led by both scooter segments growing by 13%+.
Overall consumer sentiment continues to be negative and the recovery looks
unlikely in the near term. Add to that, the competitive intensity from HMSI (likely to
launch couple of products in the next 6-8 months) would continue to impact the
sales of the incumbents.
Quarterly trend in two‐wheeler segment sales
Particulars Q1FY13 Q2FY13 Q3FY13 Q4FY13 Q1FY14E
Two-Wheelers 3,519,529 3,259,690 3,597,592 3,420,937 3,501,380
QoQ Growth (%) 2.3% ‐7.4% 10.4% ‐4.9% 2.3%
Source: SIAM Data, PL Research
Two‐wheeler segment sales
Q1FY14E Q1FY13 YoY gr. (%)
Domestic Two‐wheelers 3,501,380 3,519,529 (0.5)
Hero Motocorp 1,559,282 1,642,292 (5.1)
Bajaj Auto 571,721 618,489 (7.6)
HMSI 704,882 622,176 13.3
Source: SIAM Data, PL Research
Higher interest rates, increased fuel prices, coupled with increase in excise duties
on UVs led to 6.4% de‐growth in the passenger vehicle (Cars +UVs) segment:
Quarterly trend in passenger car segment sales
Particulars Q1FY13 Q2FY13 Q3FY13 Q4FY13 Q1FY14E
Passenger Cars 608,513 557,354 618,825 664,439 569,347
QoQ Growth (%) ‐18.2% ‐8.4% 11.0% 6.3% ‐14.3%
Source: SIAM Data, PL Research
Consumer sentiment has been impacted negatively on account of higher prices of
cars (Excise duty + Registration Tax) and higher fuel prices. Demand for petrol cars
has weakened YTD which is evident from the high inventory levels for petrol cars and
higher discounts on the same. It is unlikely that this scenario will improve in the
coming months.
July 8, 2013 41

Apr-Jul 2013 Earnings Preview
At the same time, given the current slowdown in the economy, the diesel car
demand is also fading with a de-growth during the quarter, which is evident from the
fact that all the diesel cars of Maruti Suzuki (MSIL) are now available off the shelf and
carry discounts on them. We believe the recovery is still some time away and the
decline in volumes for the industry is likely to continue in the near term (atleast for
the next 4-6 months).
Passenger Vehicle (Car + UV) segment sales
Q1FY14E Q1FY12 YoY gr. (%)
Domestic Passenger Vehicle 569,347 608,513 (6.4)
Maruti Suzuki 222,645 235,191 (5.3)
Hyundai 96,758 97,530 ‐
M&M 60,224 61,500 (2.1)
Tata Motors 34,508 60,405 (42.8)
Toyota 29,000 52,274 (44.5)
Ford 14,000 19,494 (28.2)
Source: SIAM Data, PL Research
Medium & Heavy Commercial Vehicles (M&HCV) sales decline by 14.7% YoY on
account of lower freight rates and slowdown in economic activity
Quarterly trend in M&HCV segment sales
Particulars Q1FY13 Q2FY13 Q3FY13 Q4FY13 Q1FY14E
M&HCVs 66,055 74,645 57,539 70,184 56,329
QoQ Growth (%) ‐36.5% 13.0% ‐22.9% 21.9% ‐19.7%
Source: SIAM Data, PL Research
Slowdown in economic activity, coupled with softening of freight rates across various
trunk routes and lower cargo availability across the board, led to a sharp decline in
M&HCV volumes in Q4FY13. Despite huge discounts (12-15%), manufacturers are
finding it difficult on account of postponement of purchase of new trucks (due to
sluggishness in the economy leading to lower cargo availability).
YTD M&HCV segment sales
Q1FY14E Q1FY13 YoY gr. (%)
Domestic M&HCV 56,329 66,055 (14.7)
Tata Motors 31,255 34,943 (10.6)
Ashok Leyland 14,897 20,239 (26.4)
Source: SIAM Data, PL Research
July 8, 2013 42

Apr-Jul 2013 Earnings Preview
Auto Companies ‐ Raw Material Index
108.0
106.0
104.0
102.0
100.0
98.0
96.0
94.0
92.0
Q1FY13 Q2FY13 Q3FY13 Q4FY13 Q1FY14E
Source: PL Research
We have built a raw material index giving different weightage to different
commodities. We have assigned highest weightage to Steel (45%), followed by
Aluminium (20%) and Plastics/Polymers (15%). Our raw material index declined by
~3.0% QoQ. Major raw materials have declined by 5-8% in the last few months.
However, rupee has depreciated by 4-5%, thereby, negating the impact of softer
commodity prices. Due to lower volumes across the board and not much benefit on
the commodity front, we expect EBITDA margins to contract 15bps YoY to 13.1% for
the quarter.
Our universe – Volume numbers
Company Q1FY14E YoY gr (%) QoQ gr (%)
Ashok Leyland 21,721 (21.0) (37.3)
Bajaj Auto 972,134 (9.9) (1.0)
Hero Motocorp 1,559,282 (5.1) 2.0
M&M 194,962 7.0 ‐
Maruti Suzuki 266,434 (10.0) (22.5)
Tata Motors 153,172 (18.9) (22.0)
Tata Motors JLR 91,584 9.7 (21.3)
Source: Company Data, PL Research
Tata Motors is likely to post a 17.8% decline in PAT on account of higher
depreciation and amortisation charges at JLR and a loss of Rs4.3bn on the
standalone business. Hence, the PAT for the coverage universe is likely to witness a
6.6% YoY de-growth. Excluding Tata Motors, PAT would grow by 5.2%, led by 16.1%
growth for M&M and a 69.9% growth for Maruti Suzuki (not comparable due to
merger with Suzuki Powertrain), for the quarter.
July 8, 2013 43

Apr-Jul 2013 Earnings Preview
Stock Performance
M&M: We have assumed a volume CAGR of 10% in tractors over FY13-FY15 period.
We expect the margins to improve by ~60bps during the quarter led by favourable
product mix (tractors account for ~36.5% of volumes, increased of 550bps YoY). With
an earnings CAGR of 15%+ for FY13-FY15E period and attractive valuations of core
business at 10.8x FY15E EPS (M&M + MVML), we prefer M&M over MSIL with a SOTP
based TP of Rs1,098.
Absolute
Relative to Sensex
1M 3M 6M 12M 1M 3M 6M 12M
Ashok Leyland (19.3) (15.6) (30.3) (27.5) (18.8) (20.5) (28.2) (37.8)
Bajaj Auto 6.8 9.2 (15.3) 21.0 7.3 4.4 (13.1) 10.7
Hero Motocorp 0.4 11.7 (12.1) (20.6) 0.9 6.9 (10.0) (30.9)
Mahindra & Mahindra (1.9) 12.8 (1.1) 29.5 (1.4) 8.0 1.0 19.3
Maruti Suzuki (0.2) 9.2 (1.5) 27.6 0.3 4.4 0.6 17.3
Tata Motors (4.7) 12.1 (8.4) 19.6 (4.1) 7.3 (6.3) 9.3
Source: Bloomberg, PL Research
Summary Financials ‐ Quarterly (Rs m)
Ashok Leyland
Bajaj Auto
Hero Motocorp
Mahindra &
Mahindra
Ma ruti Suzuki
Tata Motors
Source: Company Data, PL Research
Q1FY14E Q1FY13 YoY gr. (%) Q4FY13 QoQ gr. (%) 12MFY14E 12MFY13 YoY gr. (%)
Sales 22,745 30,073 (24.4) 37,285 (39.0) 139,666 124,812 11.9
EBITDA 483 2,477 (80.5) 1,983 (75.7) 10,087 8,765 15.1
Margins (%) 2.1 8.2 (612)bps 5.3 (320)bps 7.2 7.0 20 bps
PAT (1,097) 739 NA 157 NA 2,082 1,442 44.4
Sales 48,042 49,557 (3.1) 48,402 (0.7) 221,822 203,510 9.0
EBITDA 9,367 9,617 (2.6) 9,303 0.7 44,019 39,890 10.4
Margins (%) 19.5 19.4 9bps 19.2 28 bps 19.8 19.6 24 bps
PAT 7,055 7,184 (1.8) 6,970 1.2 32,936 29,746 10.7
Sales 63,056 62,473 0.9 61,458 2.6 255,616 237,681 7.5
EBITDA 8,766 9,369 (6.4) 8,498 3.2 36,648 32,846 11.6
Margins (%) 13.9 15.0 (109)bps 13.8 8bps 14.3 13.8 52 bps
PAT 5,455 6,155 (11.4) 5,742 (5.0) 22,051 21,005 5.0
Sales 105,232 93,674 12.3 104,866 0.3 458,880 404,413 13.5
EBITDA 13,074 11,094 17.8 12,701 2.9 56,336 47,094 19.6
Margins (%) 12.4 11.8 58 bps 12.1 31 bps 12.3 11.6 63 bps
PAT 8,421 7,256 16.1 7,990 5.4 38,717 32,623 18.7
Sales 103,267 107,782 (4.2) 133,040 (22.4) 463,284 435,879 6.3
EBITDA 11,721 7,863 49.1 19,996 (41.4) 51,288 42,297 21.3
Margins (%) 11.4 7.3 406 bps 15.0 (368)bps 11.1 9.7 137 bps
PAT 7,198 4,238 69.9 12,396 (41.9) 28,449 23,921 18.9
Sales 458,286 433,236 5.8 560,016 (18.2) 2,193,688 1,888,176 16.2
EBITDA 63,564 62,547 1.6 83,294 (23.7) 323,030 265,890 21.5
Margins (%) 13.9 14.4 (57)bps 14.9 (100)bps 14.7 14.1 64 bps
PAT 22,070 26,858 (17.8) 39,241 (43.8) 119,220 105,517 13.0
July 8, 2013 44

Apr-Jul 2013 Earnings Preview
Consolidated Sectoral Data
Key Figures (Rs m)
2013 2014E 2015E
Net Sales 3,294,471 3,732,954 4,293,216
Growth (%) 13.8 13.3 15.0
EBITDA 436,781 521,408 608,140
Margin (%) 13.3 14.0 14.2
PAT 214,253 243,456 288,270
Growth (%) (8.4) 13.6 18.4
PE (x) 13.9 12.2 10.3
Quarterly Table (Rs m)
Apr‐Jun'13 Apr‐Jun'12 YoY gr. (%) Jan‐Mar'13 QoQ gr. (%)
Net Sales 800,628 776,794 3.1 945,067 (15.3)
EBITDA 106,975 102,967 3.9 135,775 (21.2)
Margin (%) 13.4 13.3 11 bps 14.4 (101)bps
PAT (Excl. Ex Items ) 49,102 52,430 (6.3) 72,495 (32.3)
Note: Revenue, EBITDA and PAT numbers are arrived by totaling corresponding numbers of all companies under our coverage in this
sector.
Ashok Leyland
Rating
Reduce
Price (Rs) 19
Target Price (Rs) 19
M/Cap (Rs bn) 49.5
Shares o/s (m) 2,660.7
Key Figures (Rs m)
Y/e March FY13 FY14E FY15E
Net Sales 124,812 139,666 162,238
EBITDA 8,765 10,087 12,543
Margin (%) 7.0 7.2 7.7
PAT 1,442 2,082 3,928
EPS (Rs) 0.5 0.8 1.5
Growth (%) (75.7) 44.4 88.7
RoE (%) 3.3 4.7 8.7
PE (x) 34.3 23.8 12.6
P / BV (x) 1.1 1.1 1.1
EV / E (x) 10.4 9.1 7.3
AL reported a ~26.4% YoY decline in the M&HCV segment. However, on account of
6,806 units of LCV ‘Dost’, the overall decline in volumes was arrested at 21.0% YoY.
The average realization/vehicle is expected to be lower by 4.3% YoY on account of
product mix skewed towards LCV segment (~32.0% of volumes) and higher discounts
in the M&HCV segment. As a result, we expect a 610bps YoY decline in EBITDA
margins. The company is likely to report a loss of Rs1bn in our view.
Quarterly Table (Rs m)
Y/e March
Q1
FY14E
Q1
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Q4
FY13
12M
FY14E
12M
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Net Sales 22,745 30,073 (24.4) 37,285 139,666 124,812 11.9
EBITDA 483 2,477 (80.5) 1,983 10,087 8,765 15.1
Margin (%) 2.1 8.2 (612)bps 5.3 7.2 7.0 20 bps
Reported PAT (1,097) 669 NA 1,500 2,082 4,338 (52.0)
PAT (Excl. Ex Items) (1,097) 739 NA 157 2,082 1,442 44.4
Operating Metrics
Total Vol (nos .) 21,721 27,479 (21.0) 34,627 129,014 114,612 12.6
Net Real./Unt. (Rs) 1,047,139 1,094,417 (4.3) 1,076,750 1,082,562 1,088,999 (0.6)
RM Cost/Unt. (Rs ) 798,000 796,487 0.2 815,700 793,050 794,550 (0.2)
EBITDA/Unt. 22,216 90,144 (75.4) 57,268 78,183 76,476 2.2
July 8, 2013 45

Apr-Jul 2013 Earnings Preview
Bajaj Auto
Rating
Reduce
Price (Rs) 1,863
Target Price (Rs) 1,747
M/Cap (Rs bn) 539.1
Shares o/s (m) 289.4
Key Figures (Rs m)
Y/e March FY13 FY14E FY15E
Net Sales 203,510 221,822 251,836
EBITDA 39,890 44,019 50,236
Margin (%) 19.6 19.8 19.9
PAT 29,746 32,936 37,434
EPS (Rs) 102.8 113.8 129.4
Growth (%) (5.2) 10.7 13.7
RoE (%) 42.7 38.2 36.4
PE (x) 18.1 16.4 14.4
P / BV (x) 6.8 5.8 4.8
EV / E (x) 13.4 12.1 10.5
BJA reported a 12.5% YoY decline in two-wheeler sales for the quarter, with
domestic volumes declining by ~7.7%. Three-wheeler sales grew by 17.0% YoY on
account of new launches and permits in certain states. Despite product mix skewed
towards three-wheelers (improvement of 370bps YoY to 11.6% of volumes), margins
are likely to be flat on account of product mix in favor of lower end bikes, lower
volumes and higher provisioning for employee expenses (ex-gratia payments).
Quarterly Table (Rs m)
Y/e March
Q1
FY14E
Q1
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Q4
FY13
12M
FY14E
12M
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Net Sales 48,042 49,557 (3.1) 48,402 221,822 203,510 9.0
EBITDA 9,367 9,617 (2.6) 9,303 44,019 39,890 10.4
Margin (%) 19.5 19.4 9 bps 19.2 19.8 19.6 24 bps
Reported PAT 7,055 7,184 (1.8) 6,970 32,936 30,436 8.2
PAT (Excl. Ex Items) 7,055 7,184 (1.8) 6,970 32,936 29,746 10.7
Operating Metrics
Total Vol. (nos ) 972,134 1,078,971 (9.9) 981,242 4,464,547 4,237,162 5.4
Net Real./Unt. (Rs) 49,419 45,930 7.6 49,327 49,685 48,030 3.4
RM Cost/Unit (Rs) 34,670 32,513 6.6 34,740 34,876 34,001 2.6
EBITDA/Unit (Rs) 9,636 8,913 8.1 9,481 9,860 9,414 4.7
Hero Motocorp
Rating
Reduce
Price (Rs ) 1,649
Target Price (Rs) 1,644
M/Cap (Rs bn) 329.3
Shares o/s (m) 199.7
Key Figures (Rs m)
Y/e March FY13 FY14E FY15E
Net Sales 237,681 255,616 289,378
EBITDA 32,846 36,648 40,116
Margin (%) 13.8 14.3 13.9
PAT 21,005 22,051 27,360
EPS (Rs) 105.2 110.4 137.0
Growth (%) (11.7) 5.0 24.1
RoE (%) 45.2 39.5 40.8
PE (x) 15.7 15.0 12.1
P / BV (x) 6.6 5.4 4.6
EV / E (x) 10.0 8.5 7.9
HMCL reported a 5.1% YoY decline in volumes on account of lower retail demand
and competition from HMSI. As a result, HMCL is likely to report a flat top-line.
EBITDA margins are expected to contract by 110bps on account of higher
advertisement spend and lower volumes. Tax rate is likely to increase to ~22.5% v/s
16.3% YoY, thereby, resulting in a PAT decline of 11.4% YoY.
Quarterly Table (Rs m)
Y/e March
Q1
FY14E
Q1
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Q4
FY13
12M
FY14E
12M
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Net Sales 63,056 62,473 0.9 61,458 255,616 237,681 7.5
EBITDA 8,766 9,369 (6.4) 8,498 36,648 32,846 11.6
Margin (%) 13.9 15.0 (109)bps 13.8 14.3 13.8 52 bps
Reported PAT 5,455 6,155 (11.4) 5,742 22,051 21,005 5.0
PAT (Excl. Ex Items ) 5,455 6,155 (11.4) 5,742 22,051 21,005 5.0
Operating Metrics
Total Vol. (nos ) 1,559,282 1,642,292 (5.1) 1,527,351 6,440,118 6,075,583 6.0
Net Real./Unt. (Rs ) 40,439 38,040 6.3 40,238 39,691 39,121 1.5
RM Cost/Unit (Rs) 29,430 28,025 5.0 29,067 28,642 28,635 0.0
EBITDA/Unit (Rs) 5,622 5,705 (1.4) 5,564 5,691 5,406 5.3
Net Profit/Unit (Rs) 3,498 3,748 (6.7) 3,760 3,424 3,457 (1.0)
July 8, 2013 46

Apr-Jul 2013 Earnings Preview
Mahindra & Mahindra
Rating
Accumulate
Price (Rs) 948
Target Price (Rs) 1,098
M/Cap (Rs bn) 620.5
Shares o/s (m) 654.7
Key Figures (Rs m) ‐ Standalone
Y/e March FY13 FY14E FY15E
Net Sales 404,413 458,880 512,621
EBITDA 47,094 56,336 62,406
Margin (%) 11.6 12.3 12.2
PAT 32,623 38,717 42,873
EPS (Rs) 49.8 59.1 65.5
Growth (%) 17.7 18.7 10.7
RoE (%) 24.3 24.0 22.4
PE (x) 14.5 12.2 11.0
P / BV (x) 4.2 3.5 3.0
EV / E (x) 13.5 11.2 9.8
*Adj. for subs. Valuation at Rs204/share
Led by strong volume growth of 25.2% YoY in tractor volumes, we expect EBITDA
margins to improve by 60bps YoY. Tractor volumes accounted for 38.3% as against
32.7% of overall volumes in Q1FY13. At the same time, raw material cost during the
quarter was stable. Standalone margins to improve by 60bps. Including MVML, PAT
is to grow at 19.1% YoY to Rs9.3bn led by 70bps improvement in EBITDA margins.
Quarterly Table (Rs m) ‐ Standalone
Y/e March
Q1
FY14E
Q1
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Q4
FY13
12M
FY14E
12M
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Net Sales 105,232 93,674 12.3 104,866 458,880 404,413 13.5
EBITDA 13,074 11,094 17.8 12,701 56,336 47,094 19.6
Margin (%) 12.4 11.8 58 bps 12.1 12.3 11.6 63 bps
Reported PAT 8,421 7,256 16.1 8,890 38,717 33,523 15.5
PAT (Excl. Ex Items ) 8,421 7,256 16.1 7,990 38,717 32,623 18.7
Operating Metrics
Automotive Sales 120,385 122,571 (1.8) 146,562 607,077 551,471 10.1
Tractor sales 74,577 59,578 25.2 49,665 250,749 223,883 12.0
Total Vol. 194,962 182,149 7.0 196,227 857,826 775,354 10.6
Net Real. / Veh. 539,758 514,271 5.0 534,414 549,014 521,585 5.3
EBITDA / Veh. 67,058 60,908 10.1 64,725 67,402 60,739 11.0
Maruti Suzuki
Rating
BUY
Price (Rs) 1,551
Target Price (Rs) 1,721
M/Cap (Rs bn) 468.5
Shares o/s (m) 302.1
Key Figures (Rs m)‐ Consolidated
Y/e March FY13 FY14E FY15E
Net Sales 435,879 463,284 555,276
EBITDA 42,297 51,288 64,131
Margin (%) 9.7 11.1 11.5
PAT 23,921 28,449 37,114
EPS (Rs) 79.2 94.2 122.9
Growth (%) 39.9 18.9 30.5
RoE (%) 14.2 14.3 16.2
PE (x) 19.6 16.5 12.6
P / BV (x) 2.5 2.2 1.9
EV / E (x) 11.2 9.1 7.1
MSIL reported 10.0% YoY de-growth in the overall volumes on account of demand
pressure on both petrol as well as diesel cars. Diesel vehicles accounted for ~39% of
the domestic volumes. MSIL is likely to gain from Yen depreciation (~18%) on a YoY
and favorable product mix (‘Dzire’ accounted for 19% of volumes vs 16.4% YoY). On
account of merger of SPIL (YoY comparison not possible), PAT could grow by 70%.
Quarterly Table (Rs m)
Y/e March
Q1
FY14E
Q1
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Q4
FY13
12M
FY14E
12M
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Net Sales 103,267 107,782 (4.2) 133,040 463,284 435,879 6.3
EBITDA 11,721 7,863 49.1 19,996 51,288 42,297 21.3
Margin (%) 11.4 7.3 406 bps 15.0 11.1 9.7 137 bps
Reported PAT 7,198 4,238 69.9 12,396 28,449 23,921 18.9
PAT (Excl . Ex Items ) 7,198 4,238 69.9 12,396 28,449 23,921 18.9
Operating Metrics
Total Vol. (nos) 266,434 295,896 (10.0) 343,710 1,205,434 1,171,435 2.9
Net Real./Unt. (Rs) 387,589 364,255 6.4 387,071 377,941 367,909 2.7
RM Cost/Unit (Rs) 278,289 283,555 (1.9) 253,980 289,114 286,508 0.9
EBITDA/Unit (Rs) 43,993 26,573 65.6 58,177 36,358 30,369 19.7
Net Profit/Unit (Rs) 27,017 14,321 88.7 37,317 22,081 19,634 12.5
July 8, 2013 47

Apr-Jul 2013 Earnings Preview
Tata Motors
Rating
BUY
Price (Rs) 288
Target Price (Rs) 335
M/Cap (Rs bn) 959.8
Shares o/s (m) 3,335.1
Key Figures (Rs m)
Y/e March FY13 FY14E FY15E
Net Sales 1,888,176 2,193,688 2,521,868
EBITDA 265,890 323,030 378,707
Margin (%) 14.1 14.7 15.0
PAT 105,517 119,220 139,562
EPS (Rs) 31.6 35.7 41.8
Growth (%) (22.0) 13.0 17.1
RoE (%) 28.2 25.6 24.9
PE (x) 9.1 8.1 6.9
P / BV (x) 2.3 1.9 1.6
EV / E (x) 4.8 4.0 3.4
On a standalone basis, M&HCV volumes de-grew by 11.2% YoY, whereas the LCV
segment grew by 6.7%. On account of 18.9% YoY decline in overall volumes and
higher discounts in the M&HCV segment, EBITDA margins are likely to be marginal at
2.4%. As a result, we expect a loss of Rs4.3bn in the standalone business. JLR
volumes improved by 9.7% YoY led by Jaguar which reported a ~64% YoY growth in
volumes. On account of product mix in favour of the New ‘Range Rover’ and robust
Jaguar volumes, we expect margins to expand by 140bps YoY to 15.9% at JLR.
Quarterly Table (Rs m)
Y/e March
Q1
FY14E
Q1
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Q4
FY13
12M
FY14E
12M
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Net Sales 458,286 433,236 5.8 560,016 2,193,688 1,888,176 16.2
EBITDA 63,564 62,547 1.6 83,294 323,030 265,890 21.5
Margin (%) 13.9 14.4 (57)bps 14.9 14.7 14.1 64 bps
Reported PAT 22,070 20,831 5.9 39,456 119,220 99,704 19.6
PAT (Excl. Ex Items ) 22,070 26,858 (17.8) 39,241 119,220 105,517 13.0
Operating Metrics
Stnd. Topline (Rs m) 82,191 105,864 (22.4) 110,678 487,977 447,657 9.0
Stnd. EBITDA (Rs m) 1,957 7,734 (74.7) 4,021 28,356 21,427 32.3
JLR Volumes (nos) 91,584 83,452 9.7 116,340 420,000 372,062 12.9
JLR Topline (Rs m) 356,144 312,097 14.1 429,556 1,597,699 1,357,338 17.7
JLR EBITDA (Rs m) 56,699 45,322 25.1 76,254 255,088 213,584 19.4
July 8, 2013 48

Aor-Jul 2013 Earnings Preview
Surjit Arora
surjitarora@plindia.com
+91-22-6632 2235
Top picks
None
Auto Ancillary
Ancillary companies under our coverage are expected to post a decline of 1.5% YoY,
mainly attributed to a lower demand across the board mirroring the state of the
auto industry. Both Batteries and Tyres are likely to be impacted on account of lower
OE demand and softening replacement segment growth.
Key Raw Material
230
220
210
200
190
180
170
160
Avg. Rubber Prices (Rs /kg)
Crude Prices (US$ / bbl) (RHS)
Q1FY13 Q2FY13 Q3FY13 Q4FY13 Q1FY14E
104
102
100
98
96
94
92
90
Source: PL Research
Stock Performance
PAT, for our coverage universe, is expected to decline by 23.5% YoY, mainly on
account of steep decline in profitability for Bharat Forge (CV volumes down more
than 10%), Apollo Tyres (de-growth in standalone business and flat growth in
Europe) and Motherson Sumi likely to be impacted by slowdown in the domestic car
market.
1M 3M 6M 12M 1M 3M 6M 12M
Amara Raja Batteries 5.8 1.6 1.8 73.3 6.4 (3.2) 3.9 63.1
Apollo Tyres (33.7) (27.5) (32.4) (26.2) (33.2) (32.3) (30.3) (36.5)
Bharat Forge (4.3) 3.2 (16.3) (30.0) (3.8) (1.6) (14.2) (40.3)
CEAT (1.1) 20.6 (2.2) 7.1 (0.6) 15.8 (0.0) (3.2)
Exide Industries (11.3) (0.6) (17.7) (10.5) (10.7) (5.4) (15.6) (20.8)
Motherson Sumi Systems (0.3) 9.6 5.7 88.6 0.2 4.8 7.8 78.3
Source: Bloomberg, PL Research
Absolute
Relative to Sensex
July 8, 2013 49

Aor-Jul 2013 Earnings Preview
Summary Financials ‐ Quarterly (Rs m)
Amara Raja
Batteries
Apollo Tyres
Bharat Forge
CEAT
Exide Industries
Mothers on Sumi
Systems
Source: Company Data, PL Research
Q1FY14E Q1FY13 YoY gr. (%) Q4FY13 QoQ gr. (%) 12MFY14E 12MFY13 YoY gr. (%)
Sales 7,756 6,938 11.8 8,038 (3.5) 34,380 29,811 15.3
EBITDA 1,124 1,195 (5.9) 1,119 0.5 5,514 4,712 17.0
Margins (%) 14.5 17.2 (273)bps 13.9 57 bps 16.0 15.8 23 bps
PAT 710 757 (6.2) 594 19.5 3,200 2,943 8.7
Sales 30,622 31,647 (3.2) 30,378 0.8 140,371 127,945 9.7
EBITDA 3,249 3,516 (7.6) 3,559 (8.7) 15,529 14,566 6.6
Margins (%) 10.6 11.1 (50)bps 11.7 (111)bps 11.1 11.4 (32)bps
PAT 1,140 1,389 (17.9) 1,242 (8.2) 6,537 5,956 9.8
Sales 6,921 9,364 (26.1) 6,747 2.6 63,529 57,022 11.4
EBITDA 1,514 2,351 (35.6) 1,525 (0.7) 9,813 7,902 24.2
Margins (%) 21.9 25.1 (323)bps 22.6 (72)bps 15.4 13.9 159 bps
PAT 594 1,150 (48.4) 608 (2.3) 3,652 2,319 57.5
Sales 12,046 11,870 1.5 13,106 (8.1) 52,390 48,815 7.3
EBITDA 1,070 1,050 1.9 1,393 (23.2) 4,744 4,244 11.8
Margins (%) 8.9 8.8 3 bps 10.6 (175)bps 9.1 8.7 36 bps
PAT 299 258 16.1 609 (50.9) 1,434 1,202 19.3
Sales 14,992 15,536 (3.5) 15,412 (2.7) 67,575 60,767 11.2
EBITDA 1,997 2,328 (14.2) 2,044 (2.3) 9,136 7,896 15.7
Margins (%) 13.3 15.0 (166)bps 13.3 6 bps 13.5 13.0 53 bps
PAT 1,350 1,520 (11.2) 1,465 (7.8) 6,014 5,228 15.0
Sales 64,811 63,880 1.5 66,758 (2.9) 296,160 256,170 15.6
EBITDA 5,041 4,552 10.7 5,693 (11.4) 24,757 19,441 27.3
Margins (%) 7.8 7.1 65 bps 8.5 (75)bps 8.4 7.6 77 bps
PAT 1,391 2,090 (33.5) 1,613 (13.8) 8,050 6,074 32.5
July 8, 2013 50

Aor-Jul 2013 Earnings Preview
Consolidated Sectoral Data
Key Figures (Rs m)
2013 2014E 2015E
Net Sales 580,531 654,405 738,523
Growth (%) 28.2 12.7 12.9
EBITDA 58,761 69,492 82,071
Margin (%) 10.1 10.6 11.1
PAT 23,722 28,887 35,720
Growth (%) 22.4 21.8 23.7
PE (x) 15.2 12.4 10.1
Quarterly Table (Rs m)
Apr‐Jun'13 Apr‐Jun'12 YoY gr. (%) Jan‐Mar'13 QoQ gr. (%)
Net Sales 137,149 139,235 (1.5) 140,438 (2.3)
EBITDA 13,996 14,993 (6.6) 15,333 (8.7)
Margin (%) 10.2 10.8 (56)bps 10.9 (71)bps
PAT (Excl. Ex Items) 5,484 7,164 (23.5) 6,131 (10.6)
Note: Revenue, EBITDA and PAT numbers are arrived by totaling corresponding numbers of all companies under our coverage in this
sector.
Amara Raja Batteries
Rating
Reduce
Price (Rs) 265
Target Price (Rs) 279
M/Cap (Rs bn) 45.2
Shares o/s (m) 170.8
AMRJ is likely to post a 11.8% YoY growth in the top-line, mainly on account of a
strong traction from the automotive replacement segment and increased demand
for the UPS segment. EBITDA margins are likely to decline by 273bps YoY on account
of 230bps decline in gross margins due to ~5% depreciation in rupee.
Key Figures (Rs m)
Y/e March FY13 FY14E FY15E
Net Sales 29,811 34,380 39,020
EBITDA 4,712 5,514 6,363
Margin (%) 15.8 16.0 16.3
PAT 2,943 3,200 3,675
EPS (Rs) 17.2 18.7 21.5
Growth (%) 36.7 8.7 14.9
RoE (%) 31.3 26.8 24.7
PE (x) 15.4 14.1 12.3
P / BV (x) 4.3 3.4 2.7
EV / E (x) 8.9 8.2 6.9
Quarterly Table (Rs m)
Y/e March
Q1
FY14E
Q1
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Q4
FY13
12M
FY14E
12M
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Net Sales 7,756 6,938 11.8 8,038 34,380 29,811 15.3
EBITDA 1,124 1,195 (5.9) 1,119 5,514 4,712 17.0
Margin (%) 14.5 17.2 (273)bps 13.9 16.0 15.8 23 bps
Reported PAT 710 757 (6.2) 594 3,200 2,867 11.6
PAT (Excl. Ex Items) 710 757 (6.2) 594 3,200 2,943 8.7
July 8, 2013 51

Aor-Jul 2013 Earnings Preview
Apollo Tyres
Rating
Under Review
Price (Rs) 60
Target Price (Rs)
NA
M/Cap (Rs bn) 30.6
Shares o/s (m) 506.8
We expect Apollo Tyres to post a 4.0% YoY decline in top-line, mainly on account of a
10.1% YoY de-growth in domestic revenues reflecting the slowdown in the CV
segment. Vredestein revenue growth is likely to be subdued as the prior quarter is
normally the strong quarter on account of winter tyre sales. Due to lower top-line
and higher advertisement, cost margins are likely to decline by 50bps.
Key Figures (Rs m)
Y/e March FY13 FY14E FY15E
Net Sales 127,945 140,371 153,142
EBITDA 14,566 15,529 17,059
Margin (%) 11.4 11.1 11.1
PAT 5,956 6,537 7,351
EPS (Rs) 11.8 12.9 14.5
Growth (%) 34.9 9.8 12.4
RoE (%) 19.1 17.7 17.2
PE (x) 5.1 4.7 4.2
P / BV (x) 0.9 0.8 0.7
EV / E (x) 3.8 3.2 2.7
Quarterly Table (Rs m)
Y/e March
Q1
FY14E
Q1
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Q4
FY13
12M
FY14E
12M
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Net Sales 30,622 31,647 (3.2) 30,378 140,371 127,945 9.7
EBITDA 3,249 3,516 (7.6) 3,559 15,529 14,566 6.6
Margin (%) 10.6 11.1 (50)bps 11.7 11.1 11.4 (32)bps
Reported PAT 1,140 1,389 (17.9) 1,242 6,537 6,125 6.7
PAT (Excl. Ex Items) 1,140 1,389 (17.9) 1,242 6,537 5,956 9.8
Operating Metrics
Standalone - Rev. 19,344 21,524 (10.1) 20,362 92,603 85,075 8.8
Dunlop-Rev. 3,350 3,927 (14.7) 3,078 17,093 14,974 14.2
VBVV Rev. 6,788 6,496 4.5 7,288 31,274 29,896 4.6
Bharat Forge
Rating
Accumulate
Price (Rs) 218
Target Price (Rs) 247
M/Cap (Rs bn) 53.7
Shares o/s (m) 246.0
We expect the top-line to report a decline of 26.1% YoY, mainly due to 20.0% YoY
de-growth in the domestic revenues. This is mainly on account of a steep decline in
domestic M&HCV segment. Export revenues are also likely to decline by 32.0% YoY.
On account of lower top-line, EBITDA margins are likely to decline by 320bps YoY.
Key Figures (Rs m) ‐ Consolidated
Y/e March FY13 FY14E FY15E
Net Sales 57,022 63,529 73,881
EBITDA 7,902 9,813 11,945
Margin (%) 13.9 15.4 16.2
PAT 2,319 3,652 4,988
EPS (Rs) 9.4 14.8 20.3
Growth (%) (44.9) 57.5 36.6
RoE (%) 10.0 14.1 16.4
PE (x) 23.2 14.7 10.8
P / BV (x) 2.2 1.9 1.6
EV / E (x) 9.0 6.8 5.2
Quarterly Table (Rs m) ‐ Standalone
Y/e March
Q1
FY14E
Q1
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Q4
FY13
12M
FY14E
12M
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Net Sales 6,921 9,364 (26.1) 6,747 63,529 57,022 11.4
EBITDA 1,514 2,351 (35.6) 1,525 9,813 7,902 24.2
Margin (%) 21.9 25.1 (323)bps 22.6 15.4 13.9 159 bps
Reported PAT 594 1,150 (48.4) 501 3,652 2,474 47.6
PAT (Excl. Ex Items) 594 1,150 (48.4) 608 3,652 2,319 57.5
July 8, 2013 52

Aor-Jul 2013 Earnings Preview
CEAT
Rating
Accumulate
Price (Rs) 109
Target Price (Rs) 126
M/Cap (Rs bn) 3.7
Shares o/s (m) 34.3
CEAT is expected to post a flat growth YoY in its top-line, mainly on account of a
slowdown in OEM as well as the replacement market. On a sequential basis, natural
rubber price has increased by 12% QoQ. As a result, we expect the company to
report a 170bps decline in EBITDA margins QoQ.
Key Figures (Rs m)
Y/e March FY13 FY14E FY15E
Net Sales 48,815 52,390 56,621
EBITDA 4,244 4,744 5,350
Margin (%) 8.7 9.1 9.4
PAT 1,202 1,434 1,893
EPS (Rs) 35.1 41.9 55.3
Growth (%) 1,031.8 19.3 32.0
RoE (%) 17.1 17.7 19.8
PE (x) 3.1 2.6 2.0
P / BV (x) 0.5 0.4 0.4
EV / E (x) 3.7 3.2 2.6
Quarterly Table (Rs m)
Y/e March
Q1
FY14E
Q1
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Q4
FY13
12M
FY14E
12M
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Net Sales 12,046 11,870 1.5 13,106 52,390 48,815 7.3
EBITDA 1,070 1,050 1.9 1,393 4,744 4,244 11.8
Margin (%) 8.9 8.8 3 bps 10.6 9.1 8.7 36 bps
Reported PAT 299 258 16.1 609 1,434 1,062 35.0
PAT (Excl. Ex Items ) 299 258 16.1 609 1,434 1,202 19.3
Operating Metrics
Tonnage (MT) 54,870 51,500 6.5 59,000 230,510 215,000 7.2
Realization / kg 220 230 (4.7) 222 227 227 0.1
Recipe cos t / kg 149 163 (8.2) 148 156 157 (0.8)
Exide Industries
Rating
Accumulate
Price (Rs) 122
Target Price (Rs) 137
M/Cap (Rs bn) 103.9
Shares o/s (m) 850.0
Exide is likely to post a muted 3.5% QoQ de-growth in its top-line, mainly on account
of a delayed recovery in demand for inverter batteries (a de-growth) and lower OEM
sales. The decline in industrial batteries is likely to be compensated by the doubledigit
growth in the replacement segment and price hikes ~4.0 QoQ. However, on
account of rupee depreciation by ~5%, the benefit of price hike would be negated.
Key Figures (Rs m)
Y/e March FY13 FY14E FY15E
Net Sales 60,767 67,575 78,165
EBITDA 7,896 9,136 11,132
Margin (%) 13.0 13.5 14.2
PAT 5,228 6,014 7,250
EPS (Rs) 6.2 7.1 8.5
Growth (%) 13.3 15.0 20.5
RoE (%) 16.1 16.4 17.4
PE (x) 16.9 14.7 12.2
P / BV (x) 3.0 2.7 2.3
EV / E (x) 13.1 11.1 8.9
*Adj. for Subs. & insurance value of Rs18/share
Quarterly Table (Rs m)
Y/e March
Q1
FY14E
Q1
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Q4
FY13
12M
FY14E
12M
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Net Sales 14,992 15,536 (3.5) 15,412 67,575 60,767 11.2
EBITDA 1,997 2,328 (14.2) 2,044 9,136 7,896 15.7
Margin (%) 13.3 15.0 (166)bps 13.3 13.5 13.0 53 bps
Reported PAT 1,350 1,520 (11.2) 1,465 6,014 5,228 15.0
PAT (Excl. Ex Items) 1,350 1,520 (11.2) 1,465 6,014 5,228 15.0
July 8, 2013 53

Aor-Jul 2013 Earnings Preview
Motherson Sumi Systems
Rating
Accumulate
Price (Rs) 208
Target Price (Rs) 227
M/Cap (Rs bn) 122.3
Shares o/s (m) 587.4
Key Figures (Rs m)
Y/e March FY13 FY14E FY15E
Net Sales 256,170 296,160 337,694
EBITDA 19,441 24,757 30,222
Margin (%) 7.6 8.4 8.9
PAT 6,074 8,050 10,564
EPS (Rs) 10.3 13.7 18.0
Growth (%) 55.1 32.5 31.2
RoE (%) 29.2 30.9 31.9
PE (x) 20.1 15.2 11.6
P / BV (x) 5.3 4.2 3.3
EV / E (x) 8.5 6.5 5.1
Samvardhana Motherson Reflectec (SMR) is likely to grow by 17.7% YoY in revenue
terms (10% growth in Euro terms). Utilization levels improving at SMR level is likely
to lead to an improvement of 270bps in EBITDA margins at SMR. We expect
Peguform to report a flat growth at Rs32.5bn top-line with an EBITDA margin of
4.3%. On account of improvement in standalone margins by 200bps in standalone
business on a YoY basis, overall EBITDA margins are likely to improve by 65bps YoY.
Quarterly Table (Rs m)
Y/e March
Q1
FY14E
Q1
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Q4
FY13
12M
FY14E
12M
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Net Sales 64,811 63,880 1.5 66,758 296,160 256,170 15.6
EBITDA 5,041 4,552 10.7 5,693 24,757 19,441 27.3
Margin (%) 7.8 7.1 65 bps 8.5 8.4 7.6 77 bps
Reported PAT 1,391 81 1,608.5 1,958 8,050 4,446 81.1
PAT (Excl. Ex Items) 1,391 2,090 (33.5) 1,613 8,050 6,074 32.5
Operating Metrics
SMR Sales (Rs m) 18,900 16,063 17.7 19,227 82,172 69,538 18.2
MSSL Sales exc. SMR 45,911 47,817 (4.0) 47,532 213,988 186,632 14.7
EBITDA - SMR (Rs m) 1,450 804 80.3 1,618 6,574 4,513 45.7
EBITDA ‐ SMR (%) 7.7 5.0 267 bps 8.4 8.0 6.5 151 bps
EBITDA excl SMR (%) 7.8 7.8 (2)bps 8.6 8.5 8.0 50 bps
July 8, 2013 54

Apr-Jun 2013 Earnings Preview
Adarsh Parasrampuria
adarshparasrampuria@plindia.com
+91-22-6632 2236
Parul Gulati
parulgulati@plindia.com
+91-22-6632 2242
Top picks
ICICI Bank
Axis Bank
Yes Bank
Jammu & Kashmir Bank
LIC Housing
Banking & Financial Services
Financial performance of private and PSU banks will continue to show divergence
in trends, with PPOP/PAT growth of 23/22% for private banks v/s 3% YoY PPOP
growth and 8% YoY PAT contraction for PSUs. We expect status quo on most
operating metrics for private banks v/s robust trends reported in FY13 but for PSUs,
Q1FY14 is unlikely to be inspiring with a weak top‐line growth continuing and
restructuring and likely to remain elevated. NBFCs will see a moderate
improvement in margins due to lower wholesale cost of funds and growth metrics
is also likely to remain robust.
Divergence between private/PSUs likely to continue: Valuation difference between
private and PSU banks continue to hit new highs but fundamental performance of
PSUs in Q1FY14 is unlikely to inspire any confidence of a material reversal. We
expect PPOP growth of just 3% YoY despite expecting a push-out on higher pension
provisioning to Q2/Q3 as NIMs and fees are unlikely to recover and high
restructuring and related provisioning will keep credit costs high (~125bps). For
private banks, core fee growth will moderate but apart from that NIMs and asset
quality guidance remains sanguine. Private bank's opex growth, which has been
moderating, will be one of the key monitorables (opex/assets are expected to
improve in most banks).
Robust trend for NBFCs: Lower wholesale cost of funds is likely to come through to
margins gradually as most NBFCs have maintained their lending rate. On growth
outcomes, MMFS could positively surprise, given strong tractor volumes but IDFC is
likely to report stagnant numbers. On asset quality, we do not expect a negative
surprise, expect for SHTF and LICHF is likely to report stability in builder book after
two quarters of disappointment.
Likely surprises/misses: (1) For ICICI, we expect stable asset quality but core income
growth in unlikely to improve in Q1FY14 (2) Yes bank - We expect flat margins as
seasonal weakness in NIMs is offset by falling cost of funds and lumpy fee income
will be supported by capital gains which is likely to be used to increase countercyclical
buffer (3) LICHF -Expect stable asset quality trends in the builder book and
spreads is likely to improve by 10bps adjusted for the 20-25bps seasonality (4) SHTF -
Management guidance indicates stable asset quality in CVs but we expect gradual
deterioration to continue.
Summing up our key sector calls: (1) We continue to like Beta private banks
(ICICI/Axis/Yes) - Reasonable valuations post correction + better corporate
underwriting + Low gas power exposure (2) Like regional banks (J&K/SIB/Federal)
due to low risk Infra book +

Apr-Jun 2013 Earnings Preview
Valuation Summary – Valuations appealing to us for Private banks (ICICI/ Axis/ Yes)
Price Mcap ($ m) Rating PT Upside
P/B P/E ROE EPS Growth
FY14 FY15 FY14 FY15 FY14 FY15 FY14 FY15
Axis Bank 1,253 10,857 BUY 1650 31.7% 1.59 1.41 10.1 8.6 16.8% 17.2% 12.2% 17.5%
HDFC Bank 660 29,162 Accumulate 750 13.6% 3.74 3.16 19.3 15.4 20.7% 22.0% 20.8% 25.7%
ICICI Bank 1,028 21,928 BUY 1300 26.5% 1.67 1.51 10.6 9.2 13.5% 14.2% 13.6% 15.3%
HDFC 824 23,672 Accumulate 900 9.2% 3.53 3.03 14.8 12.6 21.8% 22.6% 20.2% 17.9%
IDFC 126 3,537 BUY 150 18.8% 1.25 1.11 8.9 7.9 14.8% 14.9% 17.0% 13.2%
Kotak Bank 692 9,819 Reduce 700 1.1% 2.82 2.46 21.6 17.2 14.3% 15.2% 14.3% 26.0%
IndusInd 492 4,761 BUY 530 7.7% 3.01 2.59 18.5 15.6 17.4% 17.9% 31.1% 18.8%
Yes 467 3,100 BUY 550 17.8% 2.37 1.97 10.7 9.3 24.3% 23.0% 20.2% 14.9%
PNB 620 4,053 BUY 775 24.9% 0.69 0.60 4.2 3.7 15.6% 15.9% 9.5% 14.4%
BOI 226 2,485 Accumulate 260 15.2% 0.61 0.54 4.1 3.5 13.6% 14.4% 18.6% 17.3%
BOB 555 4,320 Accumulate 675 21.7% 0.71 0.66 4.8 4.2 14.9% 15.1% 8.8% 14.1%
Union 172 1,892 BUY 210 22.4% 0.62 0.55 4.2 3.7 14.8% 15.1% 14.0% 14.0%
SBI 1,873 23,685 Accumulate 2450 30.8% 0.92 0.82 6.2 5.4 14.8% 15.1% 10.8% 14.9%
LIC housing 225 2,097 BUY 315 40.2% 1.51 1.29 8.7 7.1 18.6% 19.7% 27.2% 23.4%
Shriram 679 2,848 Accumulate 780 14.8% 1.81 1.54 9.7 8.6 20.3% 19.5% 16.9% 13.1%
MMFS 277 2,913 BUY 285 2.9% 2.99 2.54 14.9 12.6 21.6% 21.8% 18.5% 18.4%
Federal 397 1,255 BUY 530 33.5% 0.96 0.85 7.1 5.9 14.1% 15.3% 13.7% 21.4%
ING Vysya 614 1,943 Accumulate 650 5.8% 1.82 1.57 12.9 10.3 15.3% 16.6% 20.3% 24.7%
J&K Bank 1,220 1,093 BUY 1600 31.2% 1.06 0.91 5.9 5.2 19.3% 18.8% -4.3% 12.2%
South Indian Bank 23 570 Accumulate 28 21.7% 0.97 0.83 6.1 5.1 16.4% 17.3% -0.2% 21.0%
Source: Company Data, PL Research
July 8, 2013 56

Apr-Jun 2013 Earnings Preview
Q4 Results Preview (Rs m)
NII QoQ YoY PPOP QoQ YoY PAT QoQ YoY
HDFC Bank 43,713 1.8% 25.5% 31,486 6.3% 22.0% 18,392 ‐2.7% 29.8%
ICICI Bank 37,562 ‐1.2% 17.6% 34,145 ‐5.3% 15.8% 21,132 ‐8.3% 16.4%
Axis Bank 26,904 1.0% 23.4% 25,035 ‐10.6% 27.5% 13,851 ‐10.9% 20.1%
HDFC 16,933 ‐16.7% 15.7% 15,790 ‐20.8% 16.1% 12,047 ‐22.6% 20.2%
SBI 115,891 4.6% 4.2% 81,825 5.4% 0.1% 35,872 8.7% ‐4.4%
PNB 38,964 3.1% 5.4% 27,715 ‐2.8% ‐2.4% 11,707 3.5% ‐6.0%
BOI 24,996 1.0% 22.3% 20,390 ‐1.7% 21.8% 6,670 ‐11.8% ‐24.8%
BOB 30,285 7.6% 8.2% 24,492 12.2% 8.7% 10,236 ‐0.5% ‐11.1%
Union 20,966 5.9% 15.1% 15,497 ‐8.0% 22.3% 6,377 ‐19.2% 24.7%
Kotak 8,957 ‐0.9% 24.2% 6,236 ‐4.6% 39.1% 3,815 ‐12.5% 35.1%
IDFC 6,741 4.8% 7.2% 7,889 ‐8.1% 20.3% 4,960 ‐5.7% 30.5%
IndusInd 6,970 5.4% 44.0% 5,558 2.3% 37.6% 3,191 3.8% 35.1%
Yes 6,843 7.2% 44.9% 6,499 2.5% 41.4% 3,786 4.5% 30.5%
SIB 3,771 13.0% 27.1% 2,471 19.9% 19.1% 1,291 ‐16.1% 4.9%
ING 4,307 1.7% 25.5% 2,746 ‐3.4% 26.3% 1,587 ‐6.8% 21.9%
J&K 6,450 1.8% 20.4% 1,764 ‐15.0% 28.0% 2,774 10.9% 12.7%
Federal 5,531 15.3% 12.5% 1,708 13.0% 12.1% 2,173 ‐2.1% 14.2%
LIC Housing 4,282 ‐7.1% 22.2% 4,211 2.0% 21.1% 3,095 ‐2.1% 35.9%
MMFSL 6,386 ‐3.7% 31.0% 4,264 ‐8.8% 31.3% 2,139 ‐32.8% 32.8%
Shriram Tran. 5,030 ‐0.3% 86.1% 7,206 4.6% 18.4% 3,658 3.0% 13.7%
Total (ex SBI) 294,175 1.4% 17.7% 233,635 ‐3.1% 17.3% 127,086 ‐7.6% 12.6%
Total Private 151,008 1.8% 23.8% 117,650 ‐2.3% 23.6% 71,993 ‐5.9% 22.3%
Total Public (ex SBI) 210,135 4.3% 6.9% 154,423 3.9% 3.3% 64,485 3.8% ‐8.3%
Loans (Rs bn) QoQ YoY Margins (%) QoQ YoY LLP/Loans (%) QoQ YoY
HDFC Bank 2,589 8.0% 21.4% 4.20% ‐0.10% ‐0.10% 0.70% 0.20% ‐0.21%
ICICI Bank 3,037 4.6% 14.7% 2.92% ‐0.13% 0.11% 0.68% 0.05% ‐0.02%
Axis Bank 1,989 1.0% 16.2% 3.51% ‐0.08% 0.14% 0.90% ‐0.31% 0.29%
HDFC 1,777 4.5% 19.9% 3.62% ‐0.91% ‐0.08% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
SBI 10,770 3.0% 17.5% 2.56% ‐0.01% ‐0.36% 1.02% ‐0.58% ‐0.05%
PNB 3,118 1.0% 5.9% 3.24% 0.02% 0.00% 1.29% ‐0.62% ‐0.11%
BOI 3,003 3.8% 13.7% 2.25% ‐0.07% 0.16% 1.41% ‐0.68% 0.69%
BOB 3,298 0.5% 15.4% 2.69% 0.04% ‐0.28% 1.20% ‐0.80% ‐0.05%
Union 2,039 ‐2.0% 17.3% 2.81% 0.04% ‐0.08% 0.55% ‐0.71% ‐0.64%
Kotak 514 6.0% 21.4% 4.51% ‐0.17% ‐0.13% 0.55% 0.24% 0.23%
IDFC 571 2.5% 13.9% 4.05% ‐0.01% ‐0.28% 0.70% ‐0.48% ‐0.12%
IndusInd 465 5.0% 24.9% 3.91% 0.00% 0.49% 0.68% ‐0.06% 0.11%
Yes 479 2.0% 24.4% 3.01% 0.01% 0.21% 0.74% ‐0.09% 0.43%
SIB 321 1.0% 17.5% 3.37% 0.25% 0.09% 0.70% ‐0.13% 0.33%
ING 342 7.5% 16.7% 3.00% ‐0.21% ‐0.10% 0.48% 0.06% 0.12%
J&K 260 1.0% 18.1% 3.95% ‐0.16% 0.06% 1.06% ‐1.71% 0.15%
Federal 443 0.5% 16.5% 2.97% 0.37% ‐0.07% 0.80% ‐0.09% 0.14%
LIC Housing 809 4.0% 23.3% 2.17% ‐0.28% ‐0.01% 0.00% 0.02% ‐0.27%
MMFSL 288 3.0% 32.2% 10.23% ‐0.68% ‐0.06% 1.51% 1.04% ‐0.06%
Shriram Tran. 507 2.0% 20.9% 7.50% 0.06% ‐0.32% 1.88% 0.12% ‐0.05%
Total (ex SBI) 25,055 2.8% 15.6% 3.26% ‐0.08% ‐0.01% 0.91% ‐0.31% 0.07%
Source: Company Data, PL Research
July 8, 2013 57

Apr-Jun 2013 Earnings Preview
Difference between loan and deposit growth have narrowed
Credit growth
Deposit growth
Weak trends continue in sectoral credit
growth
28.0%
23.0%
18.0%
13.0%
8.0%
Dec-07
Apr-08
Aug-08
Dec-08
Apr-09
Aug-09
Dec-09
Apr-10
Aug-10
Dec-10
Apr-11
Aug-11
Dec-11
Apr-12
Aug-12
Dec-12
Apr-13
Source: RBI
No base rate cut by banks in 1Q13....some
have moved on FinMin and RBI’s dictat in
Jul‐13
Base rates remain sticky despite the softening seen in wholesale funds as deposits rates
remain high
Nov‐12 Dec‐12 Feb‐13 Mar‐13 Apr‐13 May‐13 Jun‐13 Jul‐13
ICICI 9.75% 9.75% 9.75% 9.75% 9.75% 9.75% 9.75% 9.75%
HDFCB 9.80% 9.80% 9.70% 9.70% 9.60% 9.60% 9.60% 9.60%
Axis 10.00% 10.00% 10.00% 10.00% 10.00% 10.00% 10.00% 10.00%
PNB 10.50% 10.50% 10.25% 10.25% 10.25% 10.25% 10.25% 10.25%
BOB 10.50% 10.50% 10.25% 10.25% 10.25% 10.25% 10.25% 10.25%
BOI 10.50% 10.50% 10.25% 10.25% 10.25% 10.25% 10.25% 10.00%
SBI 9.75% 9.75% 9.70% 9.70% 9.70% 9.70% 9.70% 9.70%
IndusInd 10.75% 10.75% 10.75% 10.75% 10.75% 10.75% 10.75% 10.75%
Yes 10.50% 10.50% 10.50% 10.50% 10.50% 10.50% 10.50% 10.50%
Union Bank 10.50% 10.50% 10.25% 10.25% 10.25% 10.25% 10.25% 10.25%
Source: Media reports, Company
Deposit rates unchanged – SBI had to change back deposit rates which it cut 4‐5 mts back
9.00
Dec-12 Mar-13 Current
8.00
7.00
6.00
5.00
4.00
3m 6m 1yr 3yr
Source: Bloomberg, SBI
July 8, 2013 58

Apr-Jun 2013 Earnings Preview
Margins ‐ Seasonal pressure on NIMs on build up in priority sector book; No improvement
seen in NIMs for PSU from Q4FY13 lower levels
Q1FY13 Q4FY13 Q1FY14E YoY QoQ
HDFC Bank 4.30% 4.30% 4.20% ‐0.10% ‐0.10%
ICICI Bank 2.81% 3.05% 2.92% 0.11% ‐0.13%
Axis Bank 3.37% 3.59% 3.51% 0.14% ‐0.08%
HDFC 3.70% 4.53% 3.62% ‐0.08% ‐0.91%
SBI 2.92% 2.56% 2.56% ‐0.36% ‐0.01%
PNB 3.24% 3.22% 3.24% 0.00% 0.02%
BOI 2.08% 2.32% 2.25% 0.16% ‐0.07%
BOB 2.97% 2.65% 2.69% ‐0.28% 0.04%
Union 2.88% 2.77% 2.81% ‐0.08% 0.04%
Kotak 4.65% 4.69% 4.51% ‐0.13% ‐0.17%
IDFC 4.33% 4.06% 4.05% ‐0.28% ‐0.01%
IndusInd 3.41% 3.91% 3.91% 0.49% 0.00%
Yes 2.80% 3.00% 3.01% 0.21% 0.01%
SIB 3.27% 3.12% 3.37% 0.09% 0.25%
ING 3.10% 3.21% 3.00% ‐0.10% ‐0.21%
J&K 3.90% 4.11% 3.95% 0.06% ‐0.16%
Federal 3.04% 2.60% 2.97% ‐0.07% 0.37%
LIC Housing 2.18% 2.45% 2.17% ‐0.01% ‐0.28%
MMFSL 10.29% 10.91% 10.23% ‐0.06% ‐0.68%
Shriram Tran. 7.82% 7.43% 7.50% ‐0.32% 0.06%
Source: Company Data, Bloomberg
Credit costs Q1FY14 – Stability for private bank; weak trends continue for PSUs
Q1FY13 Q4FY13 Q1FY14E YoY QoQ
HDFC Bank 0.91% 0.50% 0.70% ‐0.21% 0.20%
ICICI Bank 0.70% 0.63% 0.68% ‐0.02% 0.05%
Axis Bank 0.60% 1.21% 0.90% 0.29% ‐0.31%
HDFC 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
SBI 1.07% 1.60% 1.02% ‐0.05% ‐0.58%
PNB 1.40% 1.91% 1.29% ‐0.11% ‐0.62%
BOI 0.72% 2.09% 1.41% 0.69% ‐0.68%
BOB 1.25% 1.99% 1.20% ‐0.05% ‐0.80%
Union 1.19% 1.26% 1.20% 0.01% ‐0.06%
Kotak 0.32% 0.31% 0.55% 0.23% 0.24%
IDFC 0.82% 1.18% 0.70% ‐0.12% ‐0.48%
IndusInd 0.57% 0.74% 0.68% 0.11% ‐0.06%
Yes 0.31% 0.83% 0.74% 0.43% ‐0.09%
SIB 0.37% 0.83% 0.70% 0.33% ‐0.13%
ING 0.36% 0.42% 0.48% 0.12% 0.06%
J&K 0.92% 2.78% 1.06% 0.15% ‐1.71%
Federal 0.66% 0.89% 0.80% 0.14% ‐0.09%
LIC Housing 0.27% -0.02% 0.00% ‐0.27% 0.02%
MMFSL 1.57% 0.47% 1.51% ‐0.06% 1.04%
Shriram Tran. 1.93% 1.77% 1.88% ‐0.05% 0.12%
Source: Company Data, Bloomberg
July 8, 2013 59

Apr-Jun 2013 Earnings Preview
NPA Movement ‐ PSU banks ‐ Slippages and restructuring to remain elevated
1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14E
Opening 396,760 471,560 492,020 534,580 511,900
Additions 108,440 66,950 81,750 58,680 58,000
Upgradation + Recovery 32,820 26,770 27,970 57,180 28,000
Union
BOB
BOI
PNB
SBI
Write-offs 820 19,720 11,220 24,180 5,000
Gross Slippages % 4.9% 2.9% 3.4% 2.3% 2.2%
Reductions (excl. Write‐offs %) 1.5% 1.2% 1.2% 2.3% 1.1%
Net Slippages (%) 3.4% 1.7% 2.3% 0.1% 1.1%
Opening 87,200 99,890 140,250 139,978 134,658
Addition 27,690 45,440 29,690 29,570 30,000
Cash Recovery 5,700 3,840 11,540 15,910 9,000
Upgradation 8,960 1,080 18,010 18,720 9,000
Write off 340 160 400 260 500
Closing 99,890 140,250 139,990 134,658 146,158
Annualized Slippages % 3.8% 6.2% 4.0% 3.9% 3.9%
Reductions (excl. Write‐offs %) 2.0% 0.7% 4.0% 4.6% 2.3%
Net Slippages (%) 1.8% 5.5% 0.0% ‐0.7% 1.5%
Opening 59,076 67,636 88,980 86,290 87,720
Slippages 17,470 27,334 12,210 16,770 18,000
Recovery 3,620 2,871 3,650 2,310 3,000
Upgradation 3,220 1,072 3,140 170 1,000
Write off 2,070 1,097 8,110 12,860 6,000
Closing 67,636 89,795 86,290 87,720 95,720
Annualized Slippages % 2.7% 4.2% 1.8% 2.4% 2.4%
Reductions (excl. Write‐offs %) 1.1% 0.6% 1.0% 0.4% 0.5%
Net Slippages (%) 1.7% 3.6% 0.8% 2.0% 1.9%
Opening 44,649 53,196 59,348 73,215 79,825
Additions 12,567 14,715 19,997 21,160 19,000
Recovery 1,249 1,740 1,016 2,251 3,000
Upgradations 1,342 1,039 1,018 11 1,000
Write offs 1,955 5,783 3,538 12,288 3,000
Closing 53,196 59,348 73,215 79,825 91,825
Annualized Slippages % 1.75% 2.04% 2.70% 2.70% 2.31%
Reductions (excl. Write‐offs %) 0.36% 0.38% 0.27% 0.28% 0.49%
Net Slippages (%) 1.39% 1.66% 2.43% 2.42% 1.83%
Opening 54,500 65,410 64,700 63,840 63,140
Additions 16,310 7,920 6,770 8,750 10,000
Upgrades/Recoveries 4,610 6,270 4,530 4,420 4,000
Write offs 790 2,360 3,100 5,030 2,000
Closing 65,410 64,700 63,840 63,140 67,140
Slippages 3.91% 1.80% 1.56% 1.95% 2.03%
Reductions (excl. Write‐offs %) 1.10% 1.43% 1.04% 0.99% 0.81%
Net Slippages (%) 2.80% 0.38% 0.52% 0.97% 1.22%
Source: Company Data, PL Research
July 8, 2013 60

Apr-Jun 2013 Earnings Preview
G‐Sec yields have moved up from the lows in May restricting the extent of treasury gains
that PSUs could report
9.0
8.5
8.0
7.5
7.0
6.5
6.0
Dec-09
Feb-10
Apr-10
Jun-10
Aug-10
Oct-10
Dec-10
Feb-11
Apr-11
Jun-11
Aug-11
Oct-11
Dec-11
Feb-12
Apr-12
Jun-12
Aug-12
Oct-12
Dec-12
Feb-13
Apr-13
Jun-13
Source: Bloomberg
Yields down 30bps from 4Q13 levels (G‐Sec yields across maturities)
8.50
2QFY13 3QFY13 4QFY13 Current
8.00
7.50
7.00
6.50
6.00
3Month 1Year 5Year 10Year
Source: Company Data, PL Research
July 8, 2013 61

Apr-Jun 2013 Earnings Preview
Stock Performance (Banks)
Absolute
Relative to Sensex
1M 3M 6M 12M 1M 3M 6M 12M
Axis Bank (9.1) 4.1 (7.9) 20.7 (8.6) (0.7) (5.8) 10.4
Bank of Baroda (15.6) (13.8) (37.1) (23.7) (15.1) (18.6) (35.0) (34.0)
Bank of India (22.3) (24.8) (38.2) (35.9) (21.8) (29.6) (36.1) (46.2)
Federal Bank (11.6) (10.9) (23.7) (12.0) (11.1) (15.7) (21.6) (22.3)
HDFC Bank (2.3) 5.8 (1.5) 13.6 (1.8) 1.0 0.7 3.3
ICICI Bank (10.0) 3.9 (12.9) 9.9 (9.4) (0.9) (10.7) (0.4)
IndusInd Bank (2.9) 25.1 13.5 42.7 (2.4) 20.3 15.6 32.5
ING Vysya Bank (6.0) 18.0 8.2 65.1 (5.5) 13.2 10.3 54.8
Jammu & Kashmir Bank (4.6) 6.8 (7.4) 26.7 (4.0) 2.0 (5.3) 16.4
Kotak Mahindra Bank (9.3) 9.9 6.1 14.8 (8.7) 5.1 8.2 4.6
Punjab National Bank (18.7) (12.1) (30.8) (26.2) (18.2) (16.9) (28.7) (36.5)
South Indian Bank (8.2) 0.9 (22.4) (8.7) (7.6) (3.9) (20.3) (19.0)
State Bank of India (7.5) (7.9) (24.9) (15.7) (6.9) (12.7) (22.8) (26.0)
Union Bank of India (19.7) (20.1) (37.8) (19.2) (19.1) (24.9) (35.7) (29.5)
YES Bank (7.1) 9.7 (6.6) 29.3 (6.6) 4.9 (4.5) 19.0
Source: Bloomberg, PL Research
Stock Performance (Financial Services)
Absolute
Relative to Sensex
1M 3M 6M 12M 1M 3M 6M 12M
HDFC (1.8) 8.7 (1.9) 20.4 (1.3) 3.9 0.2 10.1
Infrastructure Development Finance Corporation (14.3) (10.3) (30.0) (11.2) (13.8) (15.1) (27.9) (21.5)
LIC Housing Finance (14.9) 1.9 (22.4) (15.8) (14.4) (3.0) (20.2) (26.1)
Mahindra & Mahindra Financial Services 9.8 33.1 16.3 103.3 10.4 28.3 18.4 93.0
Shriram Transport Finance (12.9) (0.6) (11.7) 21.7 (12.4) (5.4) (9.6) 11.4
Source: Bloomberg, PL Research
July 8, 2013 62

Apr-Jun 2013 Earnings Preview
Banking
Summary Financials ‐ Quarterly (Rs m)
Axis Bank
Bank of Baroda
Jammu & Kashmir
Bank
Kotak Mahindra
Bank
IndusInd Bank
ING Vysya Bank
Jammu & Kashmir
Bank
Kotak Mahindra
Bank
Punjab National
Bank
Source: Company Data, PL Research
Q1FY14E Q1FY13 YoY gr. (%) Q4FY13 QoQ gr. (%) 12MFY14E 12MFY13 YoY gr. (%)
Sales 26,904 21,799 23.4 26,647 1.0 117,376 96,663 21.4
EBITDA 25,035 19,637 27.5 27,997 (10.6) 107,180 93,031 15.2
Margins (%) 3.6 3.4 4bps 3.7 (3)bps 3.2 3.1 4bps
PAT 13,851 11,535 20.1 15,552 (10.9) 59,659 51,794 15.2
Sales 30,285 27,981 8.2 28,140 7.6 128,958 113,153 14.0
EBITDA 24,492 22,532 8.7 21,820 12.2 101,339 89,992 12.6
Margins (%) 2.6 2.7 (6)bps 2.5 2bps 2.3 2.3 (1)bps
PAT 10,236 11,513 (11.1) 10,289 (0.5) 48,736 44,807 8.8
Sales 6,450 5,356 20.4 6,336 1.8 25,551 23,160 10.3
EBITDA 4,768 4,152 14.9 5,381 (11.4) 18,404 18,108 1.6
Margins (%) 4.0 3.9 1bps 4.1 (4)bps 3.3 3.5 (6)bps
PAT 2,774 2,461 12.7 2,501 10.9 10,101 10,551 (4.3)
Sales 8,957 7,213 24.2 9,034 (0.9) 50,904 41,689 22.1
EBITDA 6,236 4,484 39.1 6,534 (4.6) 38,173 31,651 20.6
Margins (%) 4.5 4.6 (3)bps 4.7 (4)bps 4.5 4.5 0bps
PAT 3,815 2,824 35.1 4,362 (12.5) 23,457 19,995 17.3
Sales 6,970 4,841 44.0 6,612 5.4 29,644 22,329 32.8
EBITDA 5,558 4,040 37.6 5,435 2.3 24,038 18,395 30.7
Margins (%) 3.9 3.4 14 bps 3.9 (0)bps 3.7 3.4 7bps
PAT 3,191 2,363 35.1 3,074 3.8 13,915 10,612 31.1
Sales 4,307 3,433 25.5 4,237 1.7 18,482 15,386 20.1
EBITDA 2,746 2,175 26.3 2,843 (3.4) 12,583 9,927 26.8
Margins (%) 3.4 3.2 7bps 3.6 (5)bps 3.1 3.0 2bps
PAT 1,587 1,302 21.9 1,703 (6.8) 7,372 6,131 20.3
Sales 6,450 5,356 20.4 6,336 1.8 25,551 23,160 10.3
EBITDA 4,768 4,152 14.9 5,381 (11.4) 18,404 18,108 1.6
Margins (%) 4.0 3.9 1bps 4.1 (4)bps 3.3 3.5 (6)bps
PAT 2,774 2,461 12.7 2,501 10.9 10,101 10,551 (4.3)
Sales 8,957 7,213 24.2 9,034 (0.9) 50,904 41,689 22.1
EBITDA 6,236 4,484 39.1 6,534 (4.6) 38,173 31,651 20.6
Margins (%) 0.0 0.0 (3)bps 0.0 (4)bps 4.5 4.5 0bps
PAT 3,815 2,824 35.1 4,362 (12.5) 23,457 19,995 17.3
Sales 38,964 36,951 5.4 37,787 3.1 158,821 148,565 6.9
EBITDA 27,715 28,409 (2.4) 28,517 (2.8) 114,452 109,074 4.9
Margins (%) 3.5 3.6 (2)bps 3.5 1bps 3.1 3.2 (2)bps
PAT 11,707 12,457 (6.0) 11,308 3.5 52,008 47,477 9.5
July 8, 2013 63

Apr-Jun 2013 Earnings Preview
Summary Financials ‐ Quarterly (Rs m)
Q1FY14E Q1FY13 YoY gr. (%) Q4FY13 QoQ gr. (%) 12MFY14E 12MFY13 YoY gr. (%)
Sales 3,771 2,968 27.1 3,337 13.0 14,470 12,808 13.0
South Indian Bank
EBITDA 2,471 2,075 19.1 2,061 19.9 9,158 8,486 7.9
Margins (%) 3.4 3.2 5bps 3.2 7bps 2.7 2.9 (5)bps
PAT 1,291 1,230 4.9 1,538 (16.1) 5,011 5,023 (0.2)
Sales 115,891 111,189 4.2 110,784 4.6 631,164 611,602 3.2
State Bank of India
EBITDA 81,825 81,767 0.1 77,606 5.4 366,806 403,000 (9.0)
Margins (%) 3.2 3.6 (11)bps 3.2 (0)bps 2.8 3.1 (10)bps
PAT 35,872 37,516 (4.4) 32,992 8.7 152,792 177,008 (13.7)
Sales 20,966 18,217 15.1 19,795 5.9 85,919 75,428 13.9
EBITDA 15,497 12,671 22.3 16,846 (8.0) 60,863 55,827 9.0
Union Bank of
India
YES Bank
Source: Company Data, PL Research
Margins (%) 2.8 2.9 (3)bps 2.8 1bps 2.6 2.6 (2)bps
PAT 6,377 5,116 24.7 7,894 (19.2) 24,598 21,579 14.0
Sales 6,843 4,722 44.9 6,381 7.2 28,051 22,188 26.4
EBITDA 6,499 4,596 41.4 6,339 2.5 26,230 21,417 22.5
Margins (%) 3.0 2.8 7bps 3.0 0bps 2.6 2.6 3bps
PAT 3,786 2,901 30.5 3,622 4.5 15,639 13,007 20.2
Financials
Summary Financials ‐ Quarterly (Rs m)
HDFC
Infrastructure
Development
Finance
Corpora ti on
LIC Hous ing
Finance
Mahindra &
Mahindra
Financial Services
Shri ra m Tra ns port
Finance
Source: Company Data, PL Research
Q1FY14E Q1FY13 YoY gr. (%) Q4FY13 QoQ gr. (%) 12MFY14E 12MFY13 YoY gr. (%)
Sales 16,933 14,638 15.7 20,322 (16.7) 72,891 57,988 25.7
EBITDA 16,490 13,799 19.5 20,997 (21.5) 82,334 67,178 22.6
PAT 12,037 10,019 20.1 15,552 (22.6) 58,293 48,483 20.2
Sales 6,741 6,290 7.2 6,430 4.8 28,250 25,492 10.8
EBITDA 7,889 6,490 21.6 8,580 (8.1) 32,153 29,440 9.2
PAT 4,960 3,800 30.5 5,260 (5.7) 21,494 18,370 17.0
Sales 4,282 3,505 22.2 4,608 (7.1) 19,653 15,345 28.1
EBITDA 4,211 3,479 21.1 4,128 2.0 18,511 14,524 27.5
PAT 3,095 2,277 35.9 3,162 (2.1) 13,019 10,231 27.2
Sales 6,386 4,876 31.0 6,632 (3.7) 29,260 22,380 30.7
EBITDA 4,264 3,248 31.3 4,673 (8.8) 20,785 15,626 33.0
PAT 2,139 1,610 32.8 3,338 (35.9) 10,460 8,827 18.5
Sales 5,030 2,702 86.1 5,046 (0.3) 39,714 32,894 20.7
EBITDA 7,206 6,084 18.4 6,890 4.6 34,777 28,613 21.5
PAT 3,658 3,218 13.7 3,552 3.0 15,912 13,606 16.9
July 8, 2013 64

Apr-Jun 2013 Earnings Preview
Consolidated Sectoral Data (Banks)
Key Figures (Rs m)
2013 2014E 2015E
NII 1,589,733 1,774,651 2,074,927
Growth (%) 12.6 11.6 16.9
PPP 1,194,355 1,279,826 1,505,236
Growth (%) 10.2 7.2 17.6
PAT 594,377 631,222 759,639
Growth (%) 15.5 6.2 20.3
PE (x) 11.0 10.3 8.6
Quarterly Table (Rs m)
Apr‐Jun'13 Apr‐Jun'12 YoY gr. (%) Jan‐Mar'13 QoQ gr. (%)
NII 382,109 336,791 13.5 369,632 3.4
PPP 292,996 262,040 11.8 291,494 0.5
PAT 142,856 134,321 6.4 146,558 (2.5)
Consolidated Sectoral Data (Financial Services)
Key Figures (Rs m)
2013 2014E 2015E
NII 154,099 189,768 224,278
Growth (%) 18.4 23.1 18.2
PPP 155,381 188,560 221,325
Margin (%) 100.8 99.4 98.7
PAT 99,518 119,179 139,512
Growth (%) 17.5 19.8 17.1
PE (x) 19.0 15.8 13.5
Quarterly Table (Rs m)
Apr‐Jun'13 Apr‐Jun'12 YoY gr. (%) Jan‐Mar'13 QoQ gr. (%)
NII 39,371 32,011 23.0 43,038 (8.5)
PPP 40,059 33,101 21.0 45,268 (11.5)
PAT 25,890 20,925 23.7 30,864 (16.1)
Note: NII, PPP and PAT numbers are arrived by totaling corresponding numbers of all companies under our coverage in this sector.
July 8, 2013 65

Apr-Jun 2013 Earnings Preview
Axis Bank
Rating
BUY
Price (Rs) 1,253
Target Price (Rs) 1,650
M/Cap (Rs bn) 602.0
Shares o/s (m) 480.6
Key Figures (Rs m)
Y/e March FY13 FY14E FY15E
NII 96,663 117,376 140,718
PPP 93,031 107,180 126,522
NIM (%) 3.1 3.2 3.3
PAT 51,794 59,659 70,084
EPS (Rs) 110.7 124.1 145.8
Growth (%) 7.8 12.2 17.5
PE (x) 11.3 10.1 8.6
P / ABV (x) 1.8 1.6 1.4
We expect PAT growth of 20.1% YoY. NIMs are seasonally weak in Q1 v/s Q4 levels
but we expect seasonality to be less pronounced due to the full quarter impact of
the QIP. Fee income /Loan growth momentum has been robust driven by retail and
would be a key to watch out for. We expect ~Rs11bn of slippages and restructuring
v/s management guidance of Rs50bn for full year FY14.
Quarterly Table (Rs m)
Y/e March
Q1
FY14E
Q1
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Q4
FY13
12M
FY14E
12M
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
NII 26,904 21,799 23.4 26,647 117,376 96,663 21.4
PPP 25,035 19,637 27.5 27,997 107,180 93,031 15.2
NIM Calculated (%) 3.6 3.4 4 bps 3.7 3.2 3.1 4 bps
PAT 13,851 11,535 20.1 15,552 59,659 51,794 15.2
Operating Metrics
Credit Cost 0.90 0.76 14 bps 1.11 0.91 0.81 10 bps
Advances 1,989,356 1,711,459 16.2 1,969,660 2,137,081 1,833,627 16.5
Gross NPA 27,434 20,917 31.2 23,934 37,840 23,934 58.1
Net NPA 7,755 6,049 28.2 7,041 11,132 7,041 58.1
Bank of Baroda
Rating
Accumulate
Price (Rs) 555
Target Price (Rs) 675
M/Cap (Rs bn) 234.4
Shares o/s (m) 422.5
Key Figures (Rs m)
Y/e March FY13 FY14E FY15E
NII 113,153 128,958 147,537
PPP 89,992 101,339 116,449
NIM (%) 2.3 2.3 2.3
PAT 44,807 48,736 55,586
EPS (Rs) 106.0 115.3 131.6
Growth (%) (12.7) 8.8 14.1
PE (x) 5.2 4.8 4.2
P / ABV (x) 0.8 0.7 0.7
We expect PAT contraction of 11.1% YoY. NIM is expected to remain stable but core
fee growth will remain weak like other PSU banks. BOB's overseas book slippages is
likely to ease. Hence, we factor in lower slippages QoQ but recoveries/upgrades
remain unimpressive and we do not expect a turnaround in that.
Quarterly Table (Rs m)
Y/e March
Q1
FY14E
Q1
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Q4
FY13
12M
FY14E
12M
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
NII 30,285 27,981 8.2 28,140 128,958 113,153 14.0
PPP 24,492 22,532 8.7 21,820 101,339 89,992 12.6
NIM Calculated (%) 2.6 2.7 (6)bps 2.5 2.3 2.3 (1)bps
PAT 10,236 11,513 (11.1) 10,289 48,736 44,807 8.8
Operating Metrics
Credit Cost 1.20 1.14 6 bps 1.82 1.11 1.25 (14)bps
Advances 3,297,675 2,858,132 15.4 3,281,858 3,511,588 3,077,815 14.1
Gross NPA 91,825 53,194 72.6 79,826 108,044 79,826 35.3
Net NPA 48,037 18,445 160.4 41,920 48,620 41,920 16.0
July 8, 2013 66

Apr-Jun 2013 Earnings Preview
Bank of India
Rating
Accumulate
Price (Rs) 226
Target Price (Rs) 260
M/Cap (Rs bn) 134.6
Shares o/s (m) 596.6
Key Figures (Rs m)
Y/e March FY13 FY14E FY15E
NII 90,240 104,092 117,051
PPP 74,585 84,741 90,516
NIM (%) 2.2 2.2 2.2
PAT 27,493 32,605 38,252
EPS (Rs) 46.1 54.6 64.1
Growth (%) (1.1) 18.6 17.3
PE (x) 4.9 4.1 3.5
P / ABV (x) 0.7 0.6 0.5
We expect PAT contraction of 24.8% YoY. We expect NIMs to stabilize at a low base
of 2.4% reported in Q4FY13. Slippages had inched up marginally to 2.4% in Q4FY13
and we expect similar trend in Q1FY14, leading to credit costs of 130bps driven by
lower write-offs.
Quarterly Table (Rs m)
Y/e March
Q1
FY14E
Q1
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Q4
FY13
12M
FY14E
12M
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
NII 24,996 20,436 22.3 24,760 104,092 90,240 15.3
PPP 20,390 16,736 21.8 20,751 84,741 74,585 13.6
NIM Calculated (%) 2.2 2.1 8 bps 2.3 2.2 2.2 1 bps
PAT 6,670 8,875 (24.8) 7,566 32,605 27,493 18.6
Operating Metrics
Credit Cos t 1.30 0.98 32 bps 1.77 1.32 1.63 (31)bps
Advances 3,002,723 2,641,654 13.7 2,893,675 3,081,764 2,691,004 14.5
Gross NPA 95,720 67,518 41.8 87,653 116,871 87,653 33.3
Net NPA 65,396 44,134 48.2 59,473 67,785 59,473 14.0
Federal Bank
Rating
BUY
Price (Rs) 397
Target Price (Rs) 530
M/Cap (Rs bn) 67.9
Shares o/s (m) 171.1
Key Figures (Rs m)
Y/e March FY13 FY14E FY15E
NII 19,747 24,630 29,150
PPP 14,596 17,537 21,390
NIM (%) 3.0 3.1 3.0
PAT 8,382 9,516 11,544
EPS (Rs) 49.0 55.6 67.5
Growth (%) 7.9 13.5 21.3
PE (x) 8.1 7.1 5.9
P / ABV (x) 1.1 1.0 0.9
We expect PPOP growth to inch up as margins recover from 4Q levels but we had
pushed out our expectation on likely improvement in Cost/Income ratio to FY14 on
on likely provisioning on wage hike/pensions. Loan growth is expected to remain
weak but we expect a improvement in large corporate slippages v/s 4Q13 levels.
Quarterly Table (Rs m)
Y/e March
Q1
FY14E
Q1
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Q4
FY13
12M
FY14E
12M
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
NII 5,531 4,916 12.5 4,798 24,630 19,747 24.7
PPP 4,130 3,465 19.2 3,695 17,537 14,596 20.2
NIM Calculated (%) 3.2 3.3 (3)bps 2.9 3.1 3.0 3 bps
PAT 2,173 1,904 14.2 2,219 9,516 8,382 13.5
Operating Metrics
Credit Cost 0.80 0.66 14 bps 0.89 0.72 0.74 (2)bps
Advances 443,172 380,429 16.5 440,967 489,473 409,263 19.6
Gross NPA 16,140 14,089 14.6 15,540 18,705 15,540 20.4
Net NPA 4,255 2,362 80.2 4,319 5,199 4,319 20.4
July 8, 2013 67

Apr-Jun 2013 Earnings Preview
HDFC Bank
Rating
Accumulate
Price (Rs) 660
Target Price (Rs) 750
M/Cap (Rs bn) 1,571.5
Shares o/s (m) 2,379.4
Key Figures (Rs m)
Y/e March FY13 FY14E FY15E
NII 158,111 192,890 234,228
PPP 114,276 142,609 178,273
NIM (%) 4.3 4.4 4.5
PAT 67,263 81,272 102,191
EPS (Rs) 28.3 34.2 42.9
Growth (%) 28.4 20.8 25.7
PE (x) 23.4 19.3 15.4
P / ABV (x) 4.4 3.7 3.2
We expect PAT growth of ~30% YoY. Fixed rate book should help maintain NIMs but
the key operating metrics to watch would be core fees which has slowed down in
Q4FY13 (to ~10% YoY growth). Management has been guiding to opex improvement
which was visible in slowing opex growth in Q4FY13 (to

Apr-Jun 2013 Earnings Preview
IndusInd Bank
Rating
BUY
Price (Rs) 492
Target Price (Rs) 530
M/Cap (Rs bn) 257.4
Shares o/s (m) 522.9
Key Figures (Rs m)
Y/e March FY13 FY14E FY15E
NII 22,329 29,644 36,102
PPP 18,395 24,038 28,749
NIM (%) 3.4 3.7 3.7
PAT 10,612 13,915 16,530
EPS (Rs) 20.3 26.6 31.6
Growth (%) 18.3 31.1 18.8
PE (x) 24.3 18.5 15.6
P / ABV (x) 3.5 3.0 2.6
We expect PAT growth of 35.1% YoY. NIMs have been on an uptrend and we expect
buoyancy to continue, given the impact of fixed rate book and impact of the equity
dilution is likely to wane as leverage picks up. Fee income has remained robust and
that along with commentary on CV asset quality, will be the key to watch out for.
Quarterly Table (Rs m)
Y/e March
Q1
FY14E
Q1
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Q4
FY13
12M
FY14E
12M
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
NII 6,970 4,841 44.0 6,612 29,644 22,329 32.8
PPP 5,558 4,040 37.6 5,435 24,038 18,395 30.7
NIM Calculated (%) 3.9 3.4 14 bps 3.9 3.7 3.4 7 bps
PAT 3,191 2,363 35.1 3,074 13,915 10,612 31.1
Operating Metrics
Credit Cost 0.70 0.59 11 bps 0.75 0.68 0.64 4 bps
Advances 465,366 372,450 24.9 443,206 491,959 396,923 23.9
Gross NPA 4,890 3,651 33.9 4,578 6,810 4,578 48.8
Net NPA 1,369 999 37.1 1,368 2,034 1,368 48.8
ING Vysya Bank
Rating
Accumulate
Price (Rs) 614
Target Price (Rs) 650
M/Cap (Rs bn) 95.1
Shares o/s (m) 154.9
Key Figures (Rs m)
Y/e March FY13 FY14E FY15E
NII 15,386 18,482 21,658
PPP 9,927 12,583 15,672
NIM (%) 3.0 3.1 3.1
PAT 6,131 7,372 9,194
EPS (Rs) 39.6 47.6 59.4
Growth (%) 30.2 20.3 24.7
PE (x) 15.5 12.9 10.3
P / ABV (x) 2.1 1.8 1.6
We expect ING to report a PAT growth of ~22% YoY. NIMs have surprised even the
management in the past and with some PSL-related investments, we expect NIMs to
come off ~15bps from Q4FY13 levels. Fee income growth and SA growth will be the
key to watch out for. We do not expect any negative asset quality surprise and
hence, factor in ~50bps of credit costs.
Quarterly Table (Rs m)
Y/e March
Q1
FY14E
Q1
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Q4
FY13
12M
FY14E
12M
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
NII 4,307 3,433 25.5 4,237 18,482 15,386 20.1
PPP 2,746 2,175 26.3 2,843 12,583 9,927 26.8
NIM Calculated (%) 3.4 3.2 7 bps 3.6 3.1 3.0 2 bps
PAT 1,587 1,302 21.9 1,703 7,372 6,131 20.3
Operating Metrics
Credit Cost 0.50 0.37 13 bps 0.42 0.50 0.29 20 bps
Advances 341,549 292,695 16.7 317,720 351,081 302,543 16.0
Gross NPA 5,958 5,880 1.3 5,702 7,116 5,702 24.8
Net NPA 95 564 (83.1) 91 114 91 24.8
July 8, 2013 69

Apr-Jun 2013 Earnings Preview
Jammu & Kashmir Bank
Rating
BUY
Price (Rs) 1,220
Target Price (Rs) 1,600
M/Cap (Rs bn) 59.1
Shares o/s (m) 48.5
Key Figures (Rs m)
Y/e March FY13 FY14E FY15E
NII 23,160 25,551 28,959
PPP 18,108 18,404 20,202
NIM (%) 3.5 3.3 3.2
PAT 10,551 10,101 11,336
EPS (Rs) 217.6 208.3 233.8
Growth (%) 31.4 (4.3) 12.2
PE (x) 5.6 5.9 5.2
P / ABV (x) 1.2 1.1 0.9
We expect PAT growth of 13% y/y . Loan growth is expected at 1.0% QoQ, first
quarter being a seasonally low quarter but J&K growth contniues remain robust.
Further, we build in a bit higher credit cost at 70bps, up ~10bps YoY but mgt
commentary has been sanguine and we expect a better asset quality trends that
reported in 4Q13 though restructuring will remain elevated.
Quarterly Table (Rs m)
Y/e March
Q1
FY14E
Q1
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Q4
FY13
12M
FY14E
12M
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
NII 6,450 5,356 20.4 6,336 25,551 23,160 10.3
PPP 4,768 4,152 14.9 5,381 18,404 18,108 1.6
NIM Calculated (%) 4.0 3.9 1 bps 4.1 3.3 3.5 (6)bps
PAT 2,774 2,461 12.7 2,501 10,101 10,551 (4.3)
Operating Metrics
Credit Cost 0.70 0.61 9 bps 1.91 0.77 0.56 21 bps
Advances 395,924 332,253 19.2 392,004 429,244 361,389 18.8
Gross NPA 7,081 5,410 30.9 6,438 8,825 6,438 37.1
Net NPA 608 482 26.2 553 758 553 37.1
Kotak Mahindra Bank
Rating
Reduce
Price (Rs) 692
Target Price (Rs) 700
M/Cap (Rs bn) 530.7
Shares o/s (m) 766.6
Key Figures (Rs m)
Y/e March FY13 FY14E FY15E
NII 41,689 50,904 62,788
PPP 31,651 38,173 47,455
NIM (%) 4.5 4.5 4.5
PAT 19,995 23,457 29,548
EPS (Rs) 26.8 30.6 38.5
Growth (%) 15.3 14.3 26.0
PE (x) 25.8 22.6 18.0
P / ABV (x) 3.5 3.0 2.6
We expect PAT growth of 35% YoY. NIMs is likely to remain robust as capital issue
and large fixed rate book will aid margins. Fee income jumped in Q4FY13 and
sustainability of that will be the key to watch out for. We factor in credit costs of
~50bps similar to credit costs reported in Q4FY13.
Quarterly Table (Rs m)
Y/e March
Q1
FY14E
Q1
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Q4
FY13
12M
FY14E
12M
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
NII 8,957 7,213 24.2 9,034 50,904 41,689 22.1
PPP 6,236 4,484 39.1 6,534 38,173 31,651 20.6
NIM Calculated (%) 4.5 4.6 (3)bps 4.7 4.5 4.5 0 bps
PAT 3,815 2,824 35.1 4,362 23,457 19,995 17.3
Operating Metrics
Credit cost 0.57 0.34 23 bps 0.30 0.58 0.42 16 bps
Advances 513,771 423,180 21.4 484,690 739,598 606,273 22.0
Gross NPA 8,756 7,704 13.7 8,484 10,710 8,295 29.1
Net NPA 3,793 3,751 1.1 3,612 3,731 3,961 (5.8)
July 8, 2013 70

Apr-Jun 2013 Earnings Preview
Punjab National Bank
Rating
BUY
Price (Rs) 620
Target Price (Rs) 775
M/Cap (Rs bn) 219.2
Shares o/s (m) 353.5
Key Figures (Rs m)
Y/e March FY13 FY14E FY15E
NII 148,565 158,821 180,473
PPP 109,074 114,452 129,472
NIM (%) 3.2 3.1 3.1
PAT 47,477 52,008 59,484
EPS (Rs) 134.3 147.1 168.3
Growth (%) (6.7) 9.5 14.4
PE (x) 4.6 4.2 3.7
P / ABV (x) 0.8 0.7 0.6
We expect PAT to contract by 6.0% YoY. We expect margins to remain flat QoQ at
3.5%. Core fee income has been contracting by ~10% YoY and we expect similar
trend to continue even in Q1FY14. Slippages will be high driven by recognition of
~Rs18bn of NPA of a single Diamond exposure and high recovery/upgrade seen in
the last 2-3 qtrs seems unsustainable and hence we factor in ~130bps of credit costs.
Quarterly Table (Rs m)
Y/e March
Q1
FY14E
Q1
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Q4
FY13
12M
FY14E
12M
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
NII 38,964 36,951 5.4 37,787 158,821 148,565 6.9
PPP 27,715 28,409 (2.4) 28,517 114,452 109,074 4.9
NIM Calculated (%) 3.5 3.6 (2)bps 3.5 3.1 3.2 (2)bps
PAT 11,707 12,457 (6.0) 11,308 52,008 47,477 9.5
Operating Metrics
Credit Cost 1.30 1.55 (25)bps 1.45 1.15 1.40 (24)bps
Advances 3,118,125 2,944,679 5.9 3,087,252 3,287,923 3,012,500 9.1
Gross NPA 146,158 99,882 46.3 134,658 169,303 134,658 25.7
Net NPA 75,794 49,170 54.1 72,365 84,651 72,365 17.0
South Indian Bank
Rating
Accumulate
Price (Rs) 23
Target Price (Rs) 28
M/Cap (Rs bn) 3.1
Shares o/s (m) 133.9
Key Figures (Rs m)
Y/e March FY13 FY14E FY15E
NII 12,808 14,470 16,961
PPP 8,486 9,158 10,884
NIM (%) 2.9 2.7 2.7
PAT 5,023 5,011 6,063
EPS (Rs) 3.8 3.7 4.5
Growth (%) 5.9 (0.2) 21.0
PE (x) 6.1 6.1 5.1
P / ABV (x) 1.1 1.0 0.8
We expect PAT growth at 5% YoY, as we expect higher credit cost and also higher
operating expenses caused by higher provisioning for expected salary hike. Loan
growth too is expected at a seasonally weak 1.0% QoQ.
Quarterly Table (Rs m)
Y/e March
Q1
FY14E
Q1
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Q4
FY13
12M
FY14E
12M
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
NII 3,771 2,968 27.1 3,337 14,470 12,808 13.0
PPP 2,471 2,075 19.1 2,061 9,158 8,486 7.9
NIM Calculated (%) 3.4 3.2 5 bps 3.2 2.7 2.9 (5)bps
PAT 1,291 1,230 4.9 1,538 5,011 5,023 (0.2)
Operating Metrics
Credit Cost 0.70 0.37 33 bps 0.87 0.61 0.62 (1)bps
Advances 321,337 273,490 17.5 318,155 343,608 295,481 16.3
Gross NPA 5,039 2,947 71.0 4,339 5,939 4,339 36.9
Net NPA 2,771 952 191.3 2,495 2,732 2,495 9.5
July 8, 2013 71

Apr-Jun 2013 Earnings Preview
State Bank of India
Rating
Accumulate
Price (Rs) 1,873
Target Price (Rs) 2,400
M/Cap (Rs bn) 1,281.3
Shares o/s (m) 684.0
Key Figures (Rs m)
Y/e March FY13 FY14E FY15E
NII 611,602 631,164 739,517
PPP 403,000 366,806 440,932
NIM (%) 3.1 2.8 2.8
PAT 177,008 152,792 194,859
EPS (Rs) 258.8 223.4 284.9
Growth (%) 13.7 (13.7) 27.5
PE (x) 7.2 8.4 6.6
P / ABV (x) 1.2 1.1 1.0
We expect PAT to contract by 4.4% YoY. We expect margins to remain flat QoQ after
a muted performance in Q4FY13. Due to pensions and wage revisions, we would
expect opex growth to remain elevated. Gross NPA performance in Q4FY13 seems to
be under check as per mgt guidence but considering large exposures in CDR, we
expect restructuring could remain elevated.
Quarterly Table (Rs m)
Y/e March
Q1
FY14E
Q1
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Q4
FY13
12M
FY14E
12M
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
NII 115,891 111,189 4.2 110,784 631,164 611,602 3.2
PPP 81,825 81,767 0.1 77,606 366,806 403,000 (9.0)
NIM Calculated (%) 3.2 3.6 (11)bps 3.2 2.8 3.1 (10)bps
PAT 35,872 37,516 (4.4) 32,992 152,792 177,008 (13.7)
Operating Metrics
Credit Cost 1.00 1.25 (25)bps 1.68 1.12 1.27 (14)bps
Advances 10,769,850 9,168,410 17.5 10,456,166 14,970,536 12,781,391 17.1
Gross NPA 536,894 461,774 16.3 511,894 810,414 639,874 26.7
Net NPA 225,000 203,240 10.7 219,565 425,334 287,824 47.8
Union Bank of India
Rating
BUY
Price (Rs) 172
Target Price (Rs) 210
M/Cap (Rs bn) 102.4
Shares o/s (m) 596.8
Key Figures (Rs m)
Y/e March FY13 FY14E FY15E
NII 75,428 85,919 98,430
PPP 55,827 60,863 69,006
NIM (%) 2.6 2.6 2.6
PAT 21,579 24,598 28,030
EPS (Rs) 36.2 41.2 47.0
Growth (%) 11.4 14.0 14.0
PE (x) 4.7 4.2 3.7
P / ABV (x) 0.7 0.6 0.5
We expect PAT growth of 24.7% YoY. We expect muted performance on NIMs and
fee income growth is largely recovery-driven. We start to factor in higher opex
growth of 17% YoY due to changes in pension assumptions likely in FY14. Slippages
have been stable for the last three quarters at

Apr-Jun 2013 Earnings Preview
YES Bank
Rating
BUY
Price (Rs) 467
Target Price (Rs) 550
M/Cap (Rs bn) 167.4
Shares o/s (m) 358.6
Key Figures (Rs m)
Y/e March FY13 FY14E FY15E
NII 22,188 28,051 33,748
PPP 21,417 26,230 30,496
NIM (%) 2.6 2.6 2.7
PAT 13,007 15,639 17,962
EPS (Rs) 36.3 43.6 50.1
Growth (%) 31.0 20.2 14.9
PE (x) 12.9 10.7 9.3
P / ABV (x) 2.9 2.4 2.0
We expect ~31% YoY PAT growth. NIMs are expected to hold at a higher level of
Q4FY13, supported by continued accretion in CASA and softened wholesale cost of
funding. Though the bank is on an expansion mode, the cost ratio is likely to remain
stable. We continue to remain sanguine on asset quality but build in credit cost at 75
bps as Yes bank is likely to use treasury gains on corporate bond book to provide
higher counter cyclical provisions.
Quarterly Table (Rs m)
Y/e March
Q1
FY14E
Q1
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Q4
FY13
12M
FY14E
12M
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
NII 6,843 4,722 44.9 6,381 28,051 22,188 26.4
PPP 6,499 4,596 41.4 6,339 26,230 21,417 22.5
NIM Calculated (%) 3.0 2.8 7 bps 3.0 2.6 2.6 3 bps
PAT 3,786 2,901 30.5 3,622 15,639 13,007 20.2
Operating Metrics
Credit Cost 0.75 0.31 44 bps 0.86 0.59 0.40 19 bps
Advances 479,396 385,339 24.4 469,996 524,045 424,941 23.3
Gross NPA 1,085 1,095 (0.9) 943 3,062 943 224.7
Net NPA 80 300 (73.2) 70 637 70 811.9
HDFC
Rating
Accumulate
Price (Rs) 824
Target Price (Rs) 900
M/Cap (Rs bn) 1,274.3
Shares o/s (m) 1,546.4
Key Figures (Rs m)
Y/e March FY13 FY14E FY15E
Net Op. Inc. 72,567 88,512 103,585
NII 57,988 72,891 86,836
PPP 67,178 82,334 96,574
PAT 48,483 58,293 68,744
EPS (Rs) 31.4 37.7 44.5
Growth (%) 12.3 20.2 17.9
NIM (%) 3.2 3.4 3.3
RoE (%) 22.0 21.8 22.6
PE (x) 26.3 21.9 18.5
P / BV (x) 5.1 4.5 3.9
Adj. for Subs. Valuation of Rs210/share
No surprises expected. We expect individual loan growth of ~23% YoY in Q1FY14 and
spreads at 2.3% as funding advantage from lower wholesale cost of borrowing is
netted off by increasing share of mortgages.
Quarterly Table (Rs m)
Y/e March
Q1
FY14E
Q1
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Q4
FY13
12M
FY14E
12M
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Net Operating Inc. 18,403 15,541 18.4 22,379 88,512 72,567 22.0
NII 16,933 14,638 15.7 20,322 72,891 57,988 25.7
Non Interest Inc. 1,470 903 62.8 2,057 15,621 14,579 7.1
PPP 16,490 13,799 19.5 20,997 82,334 67,178 22.6
PAT 12,037 10,019 20.1 15,552 58,293 48,483 20.2
Operating Metrics
Advances 1,776,981 1,482,623 19.9 1,700,460 2,067,083 1,700,460 21.6
Borrowing 1,648,685 1,438,116 14.6 1,588,280 1,273,950 1,068,950 19.2
Disbursement 186,097 156,384 19.0 274,520 1,022,405 824,520 24.0
NIM 3.6 3.7 (8)bps 4.5 4.0 3.9 10 bps
July 8, 2013 73

Apr-Jun 2013 Earnings Preview
IDFC
Rating
BUY
Price (Rs) 126
Target Price (Rs) 150
M/Cap (Rs bn) 191.0
Shares o/s (m) 1,512.4
Key Figures (Rs m)
Y/e March FY13 FY14E FY15E
Net Op. Inc. 34,690 38,073 43,098
NII 25,492 28,250 32,150
PPP 29,440 32,153 36,456
PAT 18,370 21,494 24,327
EPS (Rs) 12.1 14.2 16.1
Growth (%) 18.2 17.0 13.2
NIM (%) 3.9 3.8 3.8
RoE (%) 14.1 14.8 14.9
PE (x) 10.4 8.9 7.9
P / BV (x) 1.4 1.3 1.1
We expect IDFC to report a PAT growth of ~31% YoY largely due to a low base. Loan
growth is seasonally weak in Q1 and with slower Infra disbursals, we expect reported
loan growth of ~14% YoY. Falling rates should help offset any NIM pressure from
higher share of re-financing. Management guidance indicates no large negative
surprises in asset quality but credit costs will continue to remain elevated as IDFC
ramps up provisioning buffer.
Quarterly Table (Rs m)
Y/e March
Q1
FY14E
Q1
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Q4
FY13
12M
FY14E
12M
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Net Operating Inc. 9,141 7,660 19.3 10,090 38,073 34,690 9.8
NII 6,741 6,290 7.2 6,430 28,250 25,492 10.8
Non Interest Inc. 2,400 1,370 75.2 3,660 9,823 9,198 6.8
PPP 7,889 6,490 21.6 8,580 32,153 29,440 9.2
PAT 4,960 3,800 30.5 5,260 21,494 18,370 17.0
Operating Metrics
NIM 4.1 4.3 (28)bps 4.1 3.9 4.1 (17)bps
Disbursements 35,116 45,020 (22.0) 46,240 217,370 195,976 10.9
Credit Cost 0.6 0.7 (8)bps 1.0 0.4 0.7 (25)bps
Loans 571,294 501,570 13.9 557,360 635,390 557,360 14.0
LIC Housing Finance
Rating
BUY
Price (Rs) 225
Target Price (Rs) 315
M/Cap (Rs bn) 113.5
Shares o/s (m) 505.0
Key Figures (Rs m)
Y/e March FY13 FY14E FY15E
Net Op. Inc. 17,343 21,886 26,802
NII 15,345 19,653 24,203
PPP 14,524 18,511 22,824
PAT 10,231 13,019 16,066
EPS (Rs) 20.3 25.8 31.8
Growth (%) 11.9 27.2 23.4
NIM (%) 2.2 2.3 2.3
RoE (%) 16.8 18.6 19.7
PE (x) 11.1 8.7 7.1
P / BV (x) 1.8 1.6 1.4
We expect LICHF to report a PAT growth of ~36% YoY as spreads recover. We factor
in spreads of ~125bps v/s 110bps reported in Q3FY13 and ~140bps reported in
Q4FY13. There will be release of provisioning from the “Fix-O-Floaty” book but LICHF
is likely to retain that as excess provisions and will not write that back through the
P&L.
Quarterly Table (Rs m)
Y/e March
Q1
FY14E
Q1
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Q4
FY13
12M
FY14E
12M
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Net Operating Inc. 4,826 3,999 20.7 5,074 21,886 17,343 26.2
NII 4,282 3,505 22.2 4,608 19,653 15,345 28.1
Non Interest Inc. 544 494 10.0 466 2,233 1,998 11.8
PPP 4,211 3,479 21.1 4,128 18,511 14,524 27.5
PAT 3,095 2,277 35.9 3,162 13,019 10,231 27.2
Operating Metrics
Credit Cost 0.0 0.3 (27)bps (0.0) 0.1 0.1 1 bps
Loans 809,245 656,440 23.3 778,120 945,256 778,120 21.5
NIM 2.2 2.2 (1)bps 2.5 2.3 2.2 10 bps
Builders Loans % 3.3 4.6 (133)bps 3.4 3.8 3.4 38 bps
July 8, 2013 74

Apr-Jun 2013 Earnings Preview
M&M Financial Services
Rating
BUY
Price (Rs) 277
Target Price (Rs) 285
M/Cap (Rs bn) 156.0
Shares o/s (m) 563.0
Key Figures (Rs m)
Y/e March FY13 FY14E FY15E
Net Op. Inc. 23,045 29,682 36,001
NII 22,380 29,260 35,532
PPP 15,626 20,785 25,395
PAT 8,827 10,460 12,384
EPS (Rs) 15.7 18.6 22.0
Growth (%) 29.8 18.5 18.4
NIM (%) 10.2 10.3 10.1
RoE (%) 23.8 21.6 21.8
PE (x) 17.7 14.9 12.6
P / BV (x) 3.7 3.3 2.8
We expect PAT growth of 32.8% YoY. NIMs seasonally come off by ~100bps YoY and
we expect similar move in Q1FY14 but YoY, we expect flat margins. Rate cycle
benefit is expected to only slowly reflect in margins. Management guidance remains
sanguine on asset quality and due to seasonality, we factor in ~160bps of credit costs
for MMFS in Q1FY14.
Quarterly Table (Rs m)
Y/e March
Q1
FY14E
Q1
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Q4
FY13
12M
FY14E
12M
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Net Operating Inc. 6,436 4,916 30.9 6,784 29,682 23,045 28.8
NII 6,386 4,876 31.0 6,632 29,260 22,380 30.7
Non Interest Inc. 50 39 27.1 153 421 666 (36.7)
PPP 4,264 3,248 31.3 4,673 20,785 15,626 33.0
PAT 2,139 1,610 32.8 3,338 10,460 8,827 18.5
Operating Metrics
Credit Cost 1.5 1.6 (8)bps 0.5 1.7 1.2 58 bps
AUM 287,505 217,441 32.2 279,131 322,801 264,591 22.0
Off-Balance sheet AU 24,933 17,663 41.2 24,207 28,664 24,207 18.4
NIM (% AUM) 9.0 9.0 6 bps 9.9 9.4 9.2 23 bps
Shriram Transport Finance
Rating
Accumulate
Price (Rs) 679
Target Price (Rs) 780
M/Cap (Rs bn) 154.1
Shares o/s (m) 226.9
Key Figures (Rs m)
Y/e March FY13 FY14E FY15E
Net Op. Inc. 36,473 43,798 50,431
NII 32,894 39,714 45,557
PPP 28,613 34,777 40,076
PAT 13,606 15,912 17,991
EPS (Rs) 60.0 70.1 79.3
Growth (%) 7.9 16.9 13.1
NIM (%) 4.4 5.1 5.1
RoE (%) 20.6 20.3 19.5
PE (x) 11.3 9.7 8.6
P / BV (x) 2.2 1.9 1.6
We expect 13.7% YoY PAT growth for Shriram. Growth has surprised in the last 2-3
quarters driven by SHTF’s entry into newer used CVs and will be the key to watch but
we are factoring in 2% AUM growth QoQ. We continue to remain cautious on the CV
cycle and hence, factor in ~1.9% credit costs v/s 1.8% reported in H2FY13.
Quarterly Table (Rs m)
Y/e March
Q1
FY14E
Q1
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Q4
FY13
12M
FY14E
12M
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Net Operating Inc. 10,003 8,727 14.6 9,508 43,798 36,473 20.1
NII 5,030 2,702 86.1 5,046 39,714 32,894 20.7
Non Interest Inc. 600 702 (14.6) 569 4,084 3,579 14.1
PPP 7,206 6,084 18.4 6,890 34,777 28,613 21.5
PAT 3,658 3,218 13.7 3,552 15,912 13,606 16.9
Operating Metrics
Credit Cost 1.9 2.0 (7)bps 1.8 2.1 1.9 17 bps
AUM 506,695 419,224 20.9 496,760 575,105 496,760 15.8
Off-Balance Sheet 185,968 162,822 14.2 182,322 198,521 185,534 7.0
NIM (on AUM) 7.5 7.8 (32)bps 7.4 6.3 6.2 13 bps
July 8, 2013 75

Apr-Jun 2013 Earnings Preview
Kunal Sheth
kunalsheth@plindia.com
+91-22-6632 2257
Top picks
Crompton Greaves
Thermax
Cummins
New projects announcement
10,000
8,000
Capital Goods
The Capital goods index has underperformed the broader markets by ~3% over the
last three months as most of the reforms are yet to see implementation at the
ground level. We expect sales for our coverage universe to grow by 1.7% YoY in
Q1FY14. EBITDA margins are expected to be at 8.7% and PAT is expected to de-grow
by 3.9% for the quarter.
Pace of announcements of new investments continues to fall YoY but during the Mar
2013 quarter, the same have grown QoQ, albeit from a very small base in Dec 2012
quarter. New investment announcements stood at Rs942bn, down 64% YoY in Mar
2013 quarter v/s Rs426bn (down 81% YoY) in Dec 2012. New project announcements
have dipped 58% YoY in FY13 to Rs4.3trn after a dip of 36% in FY12. We note that
project announcements continued to decline over the last four years after having
peaked in FY09 at Rs25trn. New projects sanctioned by banks show a similar picture,
with sanctions down 49% YoY in 9MFY13 at Rs911bn. The number of projects
shelved jumped substantially to Rs1.5trn in Mar 2013 quarter v/s Rs712bn (down
38% YoY) in Dec 2012 as against Rs518bn (down 74% YoY) in Sep 2012 and Rs1.5trn
in Jun 2012 quarter (up 225% YoY). With huge capacity additions expected in FY13,
subdued demand environment could mean new project announcements which
might continue to stay low for a few quarters. For a revival in the capex cycle, we
need to witness a sharp improvement in project announcements, which in turn,
would precede any improvement in the ordering cycle for the capital goods sector.
Projects shelved
2,500
2,000
(Rs bn)
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
Mar-08
Jun-08
Sep-08
Dec-08
Mar-09
Jun-09
Sep-09
Dec-09
Mar-10
June-10
Sep-10
Dec-10
Mar-11
June-11
Sep-11
Dec-11
Mar-12
Jun-12
Sep-12
Dec-12
Mar-13
(Rs bn)
1,500
1,000
500
0
Mar-08
Jun-08
Sep-08
Dec-08
Mar-09
Jun-09
Sep-09
Dec-09
Mar-10
June-10
Sep-10
Dec-10
Mar-11
June-11
Sep-11
Dec-11
Mar-12
Jun-12
Sep-12
Dec-12
Mar-13
Source: CMIE, PL Research
Source: CMIE, PL Research
July 8, 2013 76

Apr-Jun 2013 Earnings Preview
In its mid-quarter review of monetary policy, Reserve Bank of India (RBI) kept the key
policy rates unchanged. In its policy statement, RBI highlighted that growth has
remained weak with only a marginal improvement in GDP growth for QE Mar 2013
to 4.8%YoY (v/s 4.7% in QE Dec 2012). Industry segment remains weak driven by
persistent decline in the mining output and investment sentiment too remains weak.
During the current financial year, growth of industrial production decelerated to
2.3% in April after picking up in the preceding month. All constituent categories of
industry have slowed, with a persistent contraction in mining activity. The sharp
weakening in the growth of capital goods production points to a damp investment
demand, while there has been a pick-up in consumer non-durables. The policy
statement highlights that currency weakness remains a key concern as the
statement highlights that evolving balance of payments situation will be one of the
key factors driving monetary policy decisions, going forward. RBI’s monetary policy
stance will be determined by the evolvement of growth and inflation trajectories and
the balance of payments situation in the months ahead. It is only a durable receding
of inflation that will open up the space for monetary policy to continue to address
risks to growth. While several measures have been taken to contain the current
account deficit, we need to be vigilant about the global uncertainty, the rapid shift in
risk perceptions and its impact on capital flows.
HSBC PMI India
60
58
56
54
52
50
48
46
44
42
40
Jun-08
Sep-08
Dec-08
Mar-09
Jun-09
Sep-09
Dec-09
Mar-10
Jun-10
Sep-10
Dec-10
Mar-11
Jun-11
Sep-11
Dec-11
Mar-12
Jun-12
Sep-12
Dec-12
Mar-13
Jun-13
Source: Markit Economics, HSBC, PL Research
NOTE: Reading above 50 indicates expansion and below it denotes contraction; 50 denotes no
change
The government has taken few policy-related decisions like pass-through of
imported coal for plants after 2009, increase in gas price, SEB restructuring etc.
However, we see implementation of this measure will take time and revival of BTG
market is an year or two away.
July 8, 2013 77

Apr-Jun 2013 Earnings Preview
Order flow from Power Grid (Rs bn)
10.2 14.2 26.8
64.8
9.6
15.0 24.4 129.9
3.3
36.2
74.1
107.9
61.1
31.7
46.7
21.8
Q1FY10
Q2FY10
Q3FY10
Q4FY10
Q1FY11
Q2FY11
Q3FY11
Q4FY11
Q1FY12
Q2FY12
Q3FY12
Q4FY12
Q1FY13
Q2FY13
Q3FY13
Q4FY13
Source: Company Data, PL Research
Power Grid (PWG) ordering for Q4FY13 and FY13 remained subdued. Ordering for
Q4FY13 stood at Rs21.8bn (down 80% YoY) and for FY13, stood at Rs161.4bn (down
28% YoY). Historically, ordering has been the strongest in the last quarter of the
year; however, Q4FY13 was surprisingly weak. Transmission EPC continued to
dominate ordering in Q4FY13 and FY13, with 39% and 45% share, respectively, in the
overall ordering followed by substation (30% & 35%) and Equipment ordering which
remained weak with a market share of 4% and 7% in Q4FY13 and FY13, respectively.
We believe that spill-over of orders in Q1FY14 should lead to better Q1FY14 (which is
usually a weak quarter in terms of ordering).
Transmission orders continue to command high share in the overall ordering in PWG
(45% in FY13). Signs of consolidation with old players like KEC/KPP/L&T gaining
significant market share first visible in H1FY13 continued to be visible in H2FY13 as
well (Exhibit 3). KEC/KPP/L&T had 60% market share in overall ordering for FY13.
However, the segment has also seen entry of foreign players like National
Contracting Company of Saudi Arabia and ISOLUX. Change in payment norms and
PWG preference for serious bidders might have resulted in increased market share
for old players like KEC, Kalpataru etc. We also understand from players in the
transmission EPC industry that the number of bidders in projects has further come
down to 4-5 from 7-9 in H1FY13 and 14-16 FY11/12. We believe that the competitive
intensity decreased due to the fact that PWG stopped opening bids of a lot of players
who were not performing in terms of execution. Also, people who had taken orders
at low margins are draining financially and hence, refraining from ordering. We
believe this trend of increasing market share and lower competition would augur
well for margins of players like KEC and Kalpataru, going ahead.
July 8, 2013 78

Apr-Jun 2013 Earnings Preview
Transformer/Reactor orders continued to be weak, with total orders in FY13
standing at Rs11.2bn v/s FY12 order awards of Rs27.3bn. Chinese players continued
to dominate transformer market, with market share of 40-45% in both, Q4FY13 and
FY13 (Exhibit 5). Dominance of foreign players in 765kv transformer orders
continued, with market share of ~48% in FY13 (Exhibit 6). Commentary for industry
players suggest that prices have stabilized at lower levels and not falling further;
however, we are yet to see any uptick in prices. We believe equipment ordering
should pick up in FY14 and should benefit players like ABB, Siemens and Crompton
Greaves.
Stock Performance
Substation orders contributed 31% to PWG’s Q4FY13 overall ordering. However, for
FY13, contribution stood at 35% largely due to a single huge HVDC order worth
Rs25bn. While this segment continues to be fragmented, with large numbers of
small players entering the market, especially in the lower Kv space, established
MNCs like ABB, Alstom, Siemens who were losing market share are seeing a
comeback, especially in high KV range. We expect the trend to continue as market
keeps moving towards higher KV class. Within sub-station, Chinese dominated the
GIS sub-station segment.
1M 3M 6M 12M 1M 3M 6M 12M
ABB (6.0) 21.1 (18.7) (25.8) (5.4) 16.3 (16.6) (36.1)
Bharat Electronics (5.9) 5.3 (5.3) (8.1) (5.3) 0.5 (3.2) (18.4)
BHEL (3.5) 0.1 (25.1) (22.6) (3.0) (4.7) (23.0) (32.9)
Crompton Greaves - (2.1) (27.2) (31.8) 0.5 (6.9) (25.1) (42.1)
Cummins India (6.7) (12.7) (17.8) (4.1) (6.1) (17.5) (15.7) (14.4)
Kalpataru Power Transmission (10.4) (15.6) (34.6) (21.3) (9.8) (20.4) (32.4) (31.6)
KEC International (18.8) (41.8) (52.3) (46.5) (18.2) (46.6) (50.2) (56.8)
Power Grid Corporation (4.8) 1.1 (9.6) (6.8) (4.3) (3.7) (7.5) (17.1)
Siemens (8.8) 8.9 (22.8) (28.3) (8.2) 4.1 (20.6) (38.6)
Thermax 4.0 9.4 1.1 28.1 4.5 4.6 3.2 17.8
Voltas (1.7) 5.6 (25.7) (29.7) (1.2) 0.8 (23.6) (40.0)
Source: Bloomberg, PL Research
Absolute
Relative to Sensex
July 8, 2013 79

Apr-Jun 2013 Earnings Preview
Summary Financials ‐ Quarterly (Rs m)
ABB
Bharat Electronics
BHEL
Crompton Greaves
Cummins India
Kalpataru Power
Transmission
KEC Internati ona l
Power Grid
Corpora ti on
Siemens
Q1FY14E Q1FY13 YoY gr. (%) Q4FY13 QoQ gr. (%) 12MFY14E 12MFY13 YoY gr. (%)
Sales 19,885 18,585 7.0 19,700 0.9 39,586 36,315 9.0
EBITDA 1,193 807 48.0 1,065 12.0 2,259 1,609 40.4
Margins (%) 6.0 4.3 166 bps 5.4 59 bps 5.7 4.4 128 bps
PAT 534 516 3.4 426 25.4 959 993 (3.4)
Sales 8,128 7,969 2.0 27,781 (70.7) 66,605 61,038 9.1
EBITDA 163 (1,063) (115.3) 5,929 (97.3) 7,641 6,361 20.1
Margins (%) 2.0 (13.3) 1,534 bps 21.3 (1,934)bps 11.5 10.4 105 bps
PAT 1,071 193 454.2 5,927 (81.9) 9,822 8,882 10.6
Sales 81,597 83,262 (2.0) 188,502 (56.7) 477,230 484,123 (1.4)
EBITDA 10,819 10,894 (0.7) 47,821 (77.4) 87,760 94,009 (6.6)
Margins (%) 13.3 13.1 17 bps 25.4 (1,211)bps 18.4 19.4 (103)bps
PAT 8,525 9,209 (7.4) 37,225 (77.1) 61,094 66,126 (7.6)
Sales 30,303 28,111 7.8 33,873 (10.5) 132,782 120,944 9.8
EBITDA 1,214 1,668 (27.2) 779 55.8 8,039 3,832 109.8
Margins (%) 4.0 5.9 (192)bps 2.3 171 bps 6.1 3.2 289 bps
PAT 503 849 (40.8) 247 103.7 4,212 2,686 56.8
Sales 11,081 12,588 (12.0) 11,543 (4.0) 50,877 45,894 10.9
EBITDA 1,811 2,325 (22.1) 1,939 (6.6) 8,903 8,349 6.6
Margins (%) 16.3 18.5 (212)bps 16.8 (45)bps 17.5 18.2 (69)bps
PAT 1,501 1,806 (16.9) 1,886 (20.4) 7,012 6,846 2.4
Sales 7,554 6,994 8.0 10,316 (26.8) 37,590 33,354 12.7
EBITDA 662 704 (6.0) 997 (33.6) 3,909 3,265 19.7
Margins (%) 8.8 10.1 (130)bps 9.7 (90)bps 10.4 9.8 61 bps
PAT 232 274 (15.3) 486 (52.3) 1,893 1,421 33.2
Sales 15,278 13,641 12.0 21,500 (28.9) 80,971 69,795 16.0
EBITDA 578 1,032 (44.0) 889 (34.9) 5,305 3,814 39.1
Margins (%) 3.8 7.6 (378)bps 4.1 (35)bps 6.6 5.5 109 bps
PAT (107) 332 (132.3) (138) (22.4) 1,674 654 156.0
Sales 35,933 28,883 24.4 34,222 5.0 156,931 127,579 23.0
EBITDA 30,383 24,646 23.3 28,795 5.5 136,832 109,999 24.4
Margins (%) 84.6 85.3 (78)bps 84.1 41 bps 87.2 86.2 97 bps
PAT 11,548 8,701 32.7 11,186 3.2 47,892 42,343 13.1
Sales 29,855 28,434 5.0 29,556 1.0 84,267 90,375 (6.8)
EBITDA 1,791 967 85.3 753 137.8 4,160 7,142 (41.8)
Margins (%) 6.0 3.4 260 bps 2.5 345 bps 4.9 7.9 (297)bps
PAT 868 365 138.0 300 189.2 1,898 4,112 (53.8)
Source: Company Data, PL Research
ACC – Y/e Dec Siemens – Y/e Sep
July 8, 2013 80

Apr-Jun 2013 Earnings Preview
Summary Financials ‐ Quarterly (Rs m)
Q1FY14E Q1FY13 YoY gr. (%) Q4FY13 QoQ gr. (%) 12MFY14E 12MFY13 YoY gr. (%)
Sales 9,146 9,835 (7.0) 14,682 (37.7) 57,316 54,917 4.4
Thermax
EBITDA 866 964 (10.2) 1,673 (48.2) 5,608 4,902 14.4
Margins (%) 9.5 9.8 (33)bps 11.4 (192)bps 9.8 8.9 86 bps
PAT 630 673 (6.3) 1,154 (45.4) 3,464 3,054 13.4
Sales 16,597 16,116 3.0 15,971 3.9 53,489 55,310 (3.3)
Voltas
EBITDA 793 887 (10.6) 831 (4.6) 2,841 1,497 89.8
Margins (%) 4.8 5.5 (73)bps 5.2 (43)bps 5.3 2.7 260 bps
PAT 652 780 (16.5) (127) (613.5) 2,287 1,327 72.3
Source: Company Data, PL Research
Consolidated Sectoral Data
Key Figures (Rs m)
2013 2014E 2015E
Net Sales 1,130,678 1,161,228 1,220,568
Growth (%) 4.2 2.7 5.1
EBITDA 138,357 141,828 148,226
Margin (%) 12.2 12.2 12.1
PAT 97,618 98,100 103,629
Growth (%) (9.0) 0.5 5.6
PE (x) 17.2 17.2 16.2
Quarterly Table (Rs m)
Apr‐Jun'13 Apr‐Jun'12 YoY gr. (%) Jan‐Mar'13 QoQ gr. (%)
Net Sales 229,427 225,534 1.7 373,423 (38.6)
EBITDA 19,891 19,184 3.7 62,676 (68.3)
Margin (%) 8.7 8.5 16 bps 16.8 (811)bps
PAT (Excl. Ex Items ) 14,408 14,996 (3.9) 47,386 (69.6)
Note: Revenue, EBITDA and PAT numbers are arrived by totaling corresponding numbers of all companies under our coverage in this
sector.
All Nos. excluding Power Grid Corporation
July 8, 2013 81

Apr-Jun 2013 Earnings Preview
ABB
Rating
SELL
Price (Rs) 590
Target Price (Rs) 488
M/Cap (Rs bn) 124.9
Shares o/s (m) 211.9
We expect the overall order flow to remain subdued, given the high competition
from Power Grid orders due to invasion of Chinese players mopping up significant
market share and continued delay in ordering from the Industrial segment. We
expect margins to improve largely on a lower base.
Key Figures (Rs m)
Y/e Dec CY12 CY13E CY14E
Net Sales 76,105 88,086 103,882
EBITDA 3,416 4,845 6,752
Margin (%) 4.5 5.5 6.5
PAT 1,409 2,960 4,169
EPS (Rs) 6.6 14.0 19.7
Growth (%) (23.7) 110.1 40.9
RoE (%) 5.7 11.1 13.4
PE (x) 88.7 42.2 30.0
P / BV (x) 4.9 4.5 3.6
EV / E (x) 37.3 24.9 17.6
Quarterly Table (Rs m)
Y/e Dec
Q2
CY13E
Q2
CY12
YoY gr.
(%)
Q1
CY13
H1
CY13E
H1
CY12
YoY gr.
(%)
Net Sales 19,885 18,585 7.0 19,700 39,586 36,315 9.0
EBITDA 1,193 807 48.0 1,065 2,259 1,609 40.4
Margin (%) 6.0 4.3 166 bps 5.4 5.7 4.4 128 bps
Reported PAT 534 516 3.4 426 959 993 (3.4)
PAT (Excl. Ex Items) 534 516 3.4 426 959 993 (3.4)
Operating Metrics
Order Inflow 17,383 20,450 (15.0) 15,310 32,693 36,770 (11.1)
Order book 79,787 91,750 (13.0) 82,290 162,077 182,030 (11.0)
Bharat Electronics
Rating
BUY
Price (Rs) 1,249
Target Price (Rs) 1,439
M/Cap (Rs bn) 99.9
Shares o/s (m) 80.0
We expect the execution to be subdued due to Q1 being a seasonally weak quarter
usually after a bumper Q4. Margins are likely to improve YoY but remain below trend
due to most projects not reaching the profit-booking threshold.
Key Figures (Rs m)
Y/e March FY13 FY14E FY15E
Net Sales 61,038 66,605 73,265
EBITDA 6,361 7,641 8,847
Margin (%) 10.4 11.5 12.1
PAT 8,882 9,822 11,111
EPS (Rs) 111.0 122.8 138.9
Growth (%) 7.0 10.6 13.1
RoE (%) 14.9 14.4 14.3
PE (x) 11.2 10.2 9.0
P / BV (x) 1.6 1.4 1.2
EV / E (x) 7.4 3.7 1.8
Quarterly Table (Rs m)
Y/e March
Q1
FY14E
Q1
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Q4
FY13
12M
FY14E
12M
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Net Sales 8,128 7,969 2.0 27,781 66,605 61,038 9.1
EBITDA 163 (1,063) NA 5,929 7,641 6,361 20.1
Margin (%) 2.0 (13.3) NA 21.3 11.5 10.4 105 bps
Reported PAT 1,071 193 454.2 5,927 9,822 8,882 10.6
PAT (Excl. Ex Items) 1,071 193 454.2 5,927 9,822 8,882 10.6
Operating Metrics
RM % sales 82.0 81.6 44 bps 57.1 61.5 62.4 (87)bps
Other Income % PAT 154.0 844.4 NA 29.2 73.5 68.7 480 bps
July 8, 2013 82

Apr-Jun 2013 Earnings Preview
BHEL
Rating
Reduce
Price (Rs) 183
Target Price (Rs) 170
M/Cap (Rs bn) 447.3
Shares o/s (m) 2,447.5
With a reducing order book, we expect the execution to remain weak and expect
sales to fall by 2% YoY for the quarter. With no major orders being finalised in the
sector, we expect order booking for BHEL to remain weak for the quarter.
Key Figures (Rs m)
Y/e March FY13 FY14E FY15E
Net Sales 484,123 477,230 460,527
EBITDA 94,009 87,760 80,595
Margin (%) 19.4 18.4 17.5
PAT 66,126 61,094 56,976
EPS (Rs) 27.0 25.0 23.3
Growth (%) (6.3) (7.6) (6.7)
RoE (%) 23.7 18.5 15.0
PE (x) 6.8 7.3 7.9
P / BV (x) 1.5 1.3 1.1
EV / E (x) 4.1 3.8 3.3
Quarterly Table (Rs m)
Y/e March
Q1
FY14E
Q1
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Q4
FY13
12M
FY14E
12M
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Net Sales 81,597 83,262 (2.0) 188,502 477,230 484,123 (1.4)
EBITDA 10,819 10,894 (0.7) 47,821 87,760 94,009 (6.6)
Margin (%) 13.3 13.1 17 bps 25.4 18.4 19.4 (103)bps
Reported PAT 8,525 9,209 (7.4) 37,225 61,094 66,126 (7.6)
PAT (Excl. Ex Items) 8,525 9,209 (7.4) 37,225 61,094 66,126 (7.6)
Operating Metrics (Rs bn)
Order book 1,228 1,329 (7.6) 1,244 1,012 1,152 (12.1)
Order inflow -Total 65 56 16.3 210 309 315 (2.0)
Crompton Greaves
Rating
Accumulate
Price (Rs) 90
Target Price (Rs) 109
M/Cap (Rs bn) 57.4
Shares o/s (m) 641.5
We expect International subsidiaries to post a loss of Rs589m on account of
continued losses in Canada and issues related to high de-tanking rates taking time to
get sorted out. We expect the domestic power margin also to be weak on account of
the shutdown (fire-related disruption), impacting production and in turn, margins.
We expect the company to deliver standalone PAT of Rs1.1bn.
Key Figures (Rs m)
Y/e March FY13 FY14E FY15E
Net Sales 120,944 132,782 147,973
EBITDA 3,832 8,039 11,166
Margin (%) 3.2 6.1 7.5
PAT 2,686 4,212 6,555
EPS (Rs) 4.2 6.6 10.2
Growth (%) (25.7) 56.8 55.6
RoE (%) 7.3 10.8 15.1
PE (x) 21.4 13.6 8.8
P / BV (x) 1.5 1.4 1.2
EV / E (x) 18.3 8.5 5.8
Quarterly Table (Rs m)
Y/e March
Q1
FY14E
Q1
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Q4
FY13
12M
FY14E
12M
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Net Sales 30,303 28,111 7.8 33,873 132,782 120,944 9.8
EBITDA 1,214 1,668 (27.2) 779 8,039 3,832 109.8
Margin (%) 4.0 5.9 (192)bps 2.3 6.1 3.2 289 bps
Reported PAT 503 849 (40.8) 247 4,212 796 429.1
PAT (Excl. Ex Items) 503 849 (40.8) 247 4,212 2,686 56.8
Operating Metrics
Power segment 18,565 17,620 5.4 20,600 77,025 73,359 5.0
Industry segment 4,319 4,051 6.6 4,962 20,689 18,346 12.8
Consumer segment 7,499 6,521 15.0 7,477 31,113 25,927 20.0
July 8, 2013 83

Apr-Jun 2013 Earnings Preview
Cummins India
Rating
Accumulate
Price (Rs) 435
Target Price (Rs) 548
M/Cap (Rs bn) 120.5
Shares o/s (m) 277.2
We expect the sales to be down 12% YoY on account of a high base last year and
moderation in South-based demand which was driving bulk on demand. We expect
margins to be under pressure due to moderating demand in both, domestic and
export market, leading to unfavourable product mix and cross-corporate charges of
~Rs150m/quarter.
Key Figures (Rs m)
Y/e March FY13 FY14E FY15E
Net Sales 45,894 50,877 57,719
EBITDA 8,349 8,903 10,389
Margin (%) 18.2 17.5 18.0
PAT 6,846 7,012 8,181
EPS (Rs) 24.7 25.3 29.5
Growth (%) 26.8 2.4 16.7
RoE (%) 30.5 27.8 28.9
PE (x) 17.6 17.2 14.7
P / BV (x) 5.0 4.5 4.0
EV / E (x) 14.0 13.2 11.2
Quarterly Table (Rs m)
Y/e March
Q1
FY14E
Q1
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Q4
FY13
12M
FY14E
12M
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Net Sales 11,081 12,588 (12.0) 11,543 50,877 45,894 10.9
EBITDA 1,811 2,325 (22.1) 1,939 8,903 8,349 6.6
Margin (%) 16.3 18.5 (212)bps 16.8 17.5 18.2 (69)bps
Reported PAT 1,501 1,806 (16.9) 1,886 7,012 6,846 2.4
PAT (Excl. Ex Items ) 1,501 1,806 (16.9) 1,886 7,012 6,846 2.4
Operating Metrics
RM % Sales 65.0 63.3 164 bps 63.0 64.0 62.9 108 bps
% Full year Sales 21.8 27.4 (565)bps 25.2 - - NA
Kalpataru Power Transmission
Rating
Accumulate
Price (Rs) 65
Target Price (Rs) 106
M/Cap (Rs bn) 10.0
Shares o/s (m) 153.5
We expect the sales growth to be 8% YoY at Rs7.5bn. Margins are likely to be under
pressure due to execution of low margin order and forex losses. Order inflow is likely
to be strong as the company has managed good orders from both, domestic and
international markets.
Key Figures (Rs m)
Y/e March FY13 FY14E FY15E
Net Sales 33,354 37,590 43,228
EBITDA 3,265 3,909 4,495
Margin (%) 9.8 10.4 10.4
PAT 1,421 1,893 2,219
EPS (Rs) 9.3 12.3 14.5
Growth (%) (13.8) 33.2 17.2
RoE (%) 7.9 9.8 10.6
PE (x) 7.0 5.3 4.5
P / BV (x) 0.5 0.5 0.5
EV / E (x) 4.5 4.1 3.5
Quarterly Table (Rs m)
Y/e March
Q1
FY14E
Q1
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Q4
FY13
12M
FY14E
12M
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Net Sales 7,554 6,994 8.0 10,316 37,590 33,354 12.7
EBITDA 662 704 (6.0) 997 3,909 3,265 19.7
Margin (%) 8.8 10.1 (130)bps 9.7 10.4 9.8 61 bps
Reported PAT 232 274 (15.3) 486 1,893 1,421 33.2
PAT (Excl. Ex Items) 232 274 (15.3) 486 1,893 1,421 33.2
Operating Metrics
Order Book (Rs m) 72,746 60,320 20.6 68,000 52,583 57,786 (9.0)
Order Flow (Rs m) 12,300 6,600 86.4 8,000 33,154 30,140 10.0
Interest % sales 4.2 4.5 (26)bps 2.9 3.4 3.7 (23)bps
July 8, 2013 84

Apr-Jun 2013 Earnings Preview
KEC International
Rating
Accumulate
Price (Rs) 32
Target Price (Rs) 56
M/Cap (Rs bn) 8.2
Shares o/s (m) 257.0
Given the strong order carry, we expect steady sales growth of 12% YoY at Rs15.2bn.
Margins are likely to be under pressure due to execution of low margin orders and
contribution from new businesses with low margins and forex losses. Higher interest
costs and lower margins will take a toll on the PAT growth.
Key Figures (Rs m)
Y/e March FY13 FY14E FY15E
Net Sales 69,795 80,971 89,750
EBITDA 3,814 5,305 6,662
Margin (%) 5.5 6.6 7.4
PAT 654 1,674 2,372
EPS (Rs) 2.5 6.5 9.2
Growth (%) (64.9) 156.0 41.7
RoE (%) 5.7 13.0 15.8
PE (x) 12.6 4.9 3.5
P / BV (x) 0.7 0.6 0.5
EV / E (x) 5.6 4.0 3.3
Quarterly Table (Rs m)
Y/e March
Q1
FY14E
Q1
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Q4
FY13
12M
FY14E
12M
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Net Sales 15,278 13,641 12.0 21,500 80,971 69,795 16.0
EBITDA 578 1,032 (44.0) 889 5,305 3,814 39.1
Margin (%) 3.8 7.6 (378)bps 4.1 6.6 5.5 109 bps
Reported PAT (107) 332 (132.3) (138) 1,674 654 156.0
PAT (Excl. Ex Items ) (107) 332 (132.3) (138) 1,674 654 156.0
Operating Metrics
Order Book 86,222 94,620 (8.9) 89,400 95,235 94,700 0.6
Order Flow 12,100 20,200 (40.1) 17,040 82,324 74,840 10.0
Interest % sales 2.7 2.9 (19)bps 2.7 2.8 2.8 (2)bps
Power Grid Corporation
Rating
BUY
Price (Rs) 105
Target Price (Rs) 133
M/Cap (Rs bn) 535.4
Shares o/s (m) 5,084.1
We expect the company to continue to deliver on execution. We also believe that
the capitalization will be strong (up ~23% YoY), going ahead. As per the company,
quick clearance and corporation from the Ministry of Power has also aided
execution. It highlighted that there has been a marked acceleration in securing
clearances from MoEF in the recent past.
Key Figures (Rs m)
Y/e March FY13 FY14E FY15E
Net Sales 127,579 156,931 180,559
EBITDA 109,999 136,832 161,012
Margin (%) 86.2 87.2 89.2
PAT 42,343 47,892 52,844
EPS (Rs) 9.1 9.4 10.4
Growth (%) 30.1 3.0 10.3
RoE (%) 15.1 14.3 13.6
PE (x) 11.5 11.2 10.1
P / BV (x) 1.6 1.5 1.3
EV / E (x) 10.6 9.0 8.3
Quarterly Table (Rs m)
Y/e March
Q1
FY14E
Q1
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Q4
FY13
12M
FY14E
12M
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Net Sales 35,933 28,883 24.4 34,222 156,931 127,579 23.0
EBITDA 30,383 24,646 23.3 28,795 136,832 109,999 24.4
Margin (%) 84.6 85.3 (78)bps 84.1 87.2 86.2 97 bps
Reported PAT 11,548 8,701 32.7 11,186 47,892 42,343 13.1
PAT (Excl. Ex Items) 11,548 8,701 32.7 11,186 47,892 42,343 13.1
Operating Metrics
Capitalization(Rs bn 50 41 22.8 105 170 170 0.0
July 8, 2013 85

Apr-Jun 2013 Earnings Preview
Siemens
Rating
Reduce
Price (Rs) 525
Target Price (Rs) 423
M/Cap (Rs bn) 178.8
Shares o/s (m) 340.3
We expect the sales to pick up YoY. However, QoQ it is likely to be flat on account of
lower order carry and client-related issues in specific projects leading to delayed
execution. We expect the provision related to the cost overrun in few projects to
reduce, leading to improved margins.
Key Figures (Rs m)
Y/e Sep CY12 CY13E CY14E
Net Sales 129,199 116,282 122,096
EBITDA 8,913 6,977 8,913
Margin (%) 6.9 6.0 7.3
PAT 5,211 3,682 4,802
EPS (Rs) 15.3 10.8 14.1
Growth (%) (38.4) (29.3) 30.2
RoE (%) 13.4 8.9 10.5
PE (x) 34.3 48.6 37.3
P / BV (x) 4.5 4.1 3.7
EV / E (x) 19.0 23.4 17.8
Quarterly Table (Rs m)
Y/e Sep
Q3
CY13E
Q3
CY12
YoY gr.
(%)
Q2
CY13
9M
CY13E
9M
CY12
YoY gr.
(%)
Net Sales 29,855 28,434 5.0 29,556 84,267 90,375 (6.8)
EBITDA 1,791 967 85.3 753 4,160 7,142 (41.8)
Margin (%) 6.0 3.4 260 bps 2.5 4.9 7.9 (297)bps
Reported PAT 868 365 138.0 300 1,898 4,112 (53.8)
PAT (Excl. Ex Items) 868 365 138.0 300 1,898 4,112 (53.8)
Operating Metrics
Order Book (Rs bn) 115 124 (7.6) 122 369 391 (5.5)
Order Inflows (Rs bn 22 27 (18.5) 20 63 73 (13.8)
Thermax
Rating
Accumulate
Price (Rs) 624
Target Price (Rs) 652
M/Cap (Rs bn) 74.4
Shares o/s (m) 119.2
We expect the execution to remain weak during the quarter due to lower order
carry. We expect healthy run-rate of order inflow to continue. We expect fresh order
intake to be ~Rs11.5bn. We expect margins to be maintained at 9.5% due to costcontrol
measures adopted by the company.
Key Figures (Rs m)
Y/e March FY13 FY14E FY15E
Net Sales 54,917 57,316 62,674
EBITDA 4,902 5,608 6,732
Margin (%) 8.9 9.8 10.7
PAT 3,054 3,464 4,316
EPS (Rs) 25.6 29.1 36.2
Growth (%) (22.1) 13.4 24.6
RoE (%) 17.5 17.1 18.4
PE (x) 24.3 21.5 17.2
P / BV (x) 4.0 3.4 3.0
EV / E (x) 14.5 11.9 9.2
Quarterly Table (Rs m)
Y/e March
Q1
FY14E
Q1
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Q4
FY13
12M
FY14E
12M
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Net Sales 9,146 9,835 (7.0) 14,682 48,672 46,908 3.8
EBITDA 866 964 (10.2) 1,673 5,123 5,011 2.2
Margin (%) 9.5 9.8 (33)bps 11.4 10.5 10.7 (16)bps
Reported PAT 630 673 (6.3) 1,154 3,637 3,499 3.9
PAT (Excl. Ex Items) 630 673 (6.3) 1,154 3,637 3,499 3.9
Operating Metrics (Rs bn)
Order book 43.3 44.7 (3.1) 43.4 47.1 43.9 7.3
Order Inflow 11.5 12.5 (8.0) 11.6 53.6 48.5 10.5
July 8, 2013 86

Apr-Jun 2013 Earnings Preview
Voltas
Rating
Accumulate
Price (Rs) 80
Target Price (Rs) 97
M/Cap (Rs bn) 26.6
Shares o/s (m) 330.7
We expect overall revenues to be at Rs16.5bn (up 3% YoY). MEP segment margins
are likely to be under pressure as the incremental revenue booked in Sidra and few
other projects will be booked at cost. We expect the UCP segment to post a growth
of 12% YoY due to strong offtake on account of summer-related demand. Margins
are likely to be under pressure due to higher competition and weak rupee.
Key Figures (Rs m)
Y/e March FY13 FY14E FY15E
Net Sales 55,310 53,489 59,452
EBITDA 1,497 2,841 3,673
Margin (%) 2.7 5.3 6.2
PAT 1,327 2,287 2,928
EPS (Rs) 4.0 6.9 8.9
Growth (%) (18.1) 72.3 28.0
RoE (%) 8.5 13.2 15.3
PE (x) 20.0 11.6 9.1
P / BV (x) 1.6 1.5 1.3
EV / E (x) 17.2 9.0 6.3
Quarterly Table (Rs m)
Y/e March
Q1
FY14E
Q1
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Q4
FY13
12M
FY14E
12M
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Net Sales 16,597 16,116 3.0 15,971 53,489 55,310 (3.3)
EBITDA 793 887 (10.6) 831 2,841 1,497 89.8
Margin (%) 4.8 5.5 (73)bps 5.2 5.3 2.7 260 bps
Reported PAT 652 780 (16.5) (127) 2,287 2,080 9.9
PAT (Excl. Ex Items ) 652 780 (16.5) (127) 2,287 1,327 72.3
Operating Metrics
MEP 6,968 7,413 (6.0) 8,834 26,894 31,995 (15.9)
Engineering Product 1,087 1,066 2.0 1,039 4,957 4,311 15.0
UCP 8,449 7,544 12.0 5,855 21,110 18,356 15.0
July 8, 2013 87

Apr-Jun 2013 Earnings Preview
Kamlesh Bagmar
kamleshbagmar@plindia.com
+91-22-6632 2237
Mandar Dhavle
mandardhavle@plindia.com
+91-22-6632 2258
Cement
Based on Economic Adviser’s (Ministry of Commerce and Industry) data, all-India
cement production grew 5.6% YoY at 44.9m tonnes during April-May2013. Our
interactions with companies suggest fall of ~5% YoY in June on the back of weak
demand and early monsoon. Hence, we expect all-India production to close the
quarter with growth of 4.2% at 65.7m tonnes.
Top picks
All‐India Cement Production
Shree Cement
75.0
70.0
65.0
60.0
55.0
50.0
45.0
40.0
35.0
30.0
Production in mn tonnes-LHS Growth (%)
16.0
14.0
12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
Q1FY11
Q2FY11
Q3FY11
Q4FY11
Q1FY12
Q2FY12
Q3FY12
Q4FY12
Q1FY13
Q2FY13
Q3FY13
Q4FY13
Q1FY14E
Source: Economic Advisor to Ministry of Commerce & Industry
All-India cement prices fell 4.0% YoY and 1.0% QoQ at Rs295/bag in the quarter.
Western region posted the highest fall of 3.7% QoQ due to 7% fall in Gujarat’s prices
and flat prices in Maharashtra. Prices in North remained flat QoQ on account of
decent recovery in prices post fall in April. Prices in both East and Central region fell
1.9% QoQ each on account of high base and weak demand. Prices in the Southern
region remained flat, except AP, which posted an increase of 8% QoQ.
Average prices in the East up by Rs6/bag QoQ: West Bengal and Chhattisgarh were
the best performing states in the region, with an increase of Rs10/bag QoQ in Q1,
while, Orissa and Bihar lagged with a nominal increase of Rs3/bag QoQ. Hence, East
region’s average settled with an increase of Rs6/bag in the quarter.
Average up Rs5/bag QoQ in the North; Rajasthan posts lowest increase: Delhi
witnessed the highest increase in prices of Rs7/bag QoQ in the quarter. Prices in
Punjab and Haryana settled with an increase of Rs4 and Rs5 QoQ, respectively. Least
increase was witnessed in Rajasthan with an increase of Rs3/bag.
Prices in the Central region remained flat QoQ: Central remained flat QoQ with
disappointment from UP and MP, due to weak prices on account of weak demand
and increased supplies. Prices in UP rose by Rs2/bag QoQ, while, prices in MP fell by
Rs3/bag.
July 8, 2013 88

Apr-Jun 2013 Earnings Preview
West ‐ weakest region in the entire space: Average prices in Maharashtra rose
Rs3/bag QoQ. Prices in Mumbai and Nagpur rose by Rs4 and Rs10 QoQ, respectively,
while, prices in Pune fell by Rs7/bag QoQ. Prices in Gujarat witnessed the steepest
fall where prices declined by Rs19/bag QoQ on account of continued weakness in the
real estate sector.
Prices flat in the South except AP: Prices in the South remained flat QoQ, except AP
and Kerala. Thanks to the tight discipline on supplies, prices in AP rose by
~Rs100/bag in May, while ended the quarter with an increase of Rs18/bag QoQ.
Prices in Kerala fell by Rs6/bag due to a weak demand in the housing sector. Our
interaction with dealers and bulk buyers suggest continued weakness in demand
from housing and infrastructure sector.
Region‐wise prices
385
North South West Central East
Rs/50kg bag
335
285
235
185
Jan-11
Feb-11
Mar-11
Apr-11
May-11
Jun-11
Jul-11
Aug-11
Sep-11
Oct-11
Nov-11
Dec-11
Jan-12
Feb-12
Mar-12
Apr-12
May-12
Jun-12
Jul-12
Aug-12
Sep-12
Oct-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Source: Industry, PL Research
Realisations for large caps would rise in the range of Rs15-50/t (0.3-1.0%) QoQ in the
order of highest and lowest increase in ACC and UTCEM, respectively. Earnings of
our coverage space are expected to fall by 33% YoY in the quarter.
Stock Performance
We maintain our Negative rating on ACC, ACEM and UTCEM on the backdrop of
uninspiring earnings outlook and expensive valuations (EV/EBITDA>9x, P/E:15x
FY15E). We continue to like SRCM, backed by strong earnings outlook and attractive
valuations (EV/EBITDA 6x FY15E).
1M 3M 6M 12M 1M 3M 6M 12M
ACC 4.6 11.8 (11.1) (2.8) 5.1 7.0 (9.0) (13.1)
Ambuja Cement 12.3 14.7 (4.4) 11.7 12.9 9.9 (2.3) 1.4
Shree Cement (3.3) 14.0 0.3 55.5 (2.8) 9.2 2.5 45.2
Ultratech Cement 1.5 5.5 (6.5) 22.2 2.0 0.7 (4.4) 11.9
Source: Bloomberg, PL Research
Absolute
Relative to Sensex
July 8, 2013 89

Apr-Jun 2013 Earnings Preview
Summary Financials ‐ Quarterly (Rs m)
Q1FY14E Q1FY13 YoY gr. (%) Q4FY13 QoQ gr. (%) 12MFY14E 12MFY13 YoY gr. (%)
Sales 27,343 29,190 (6.3) 29,111 (6.1) 56,454 59,169 (4.6)
ACC
EBITDA 3,693 6,503 (43.2) 4,466 (17.3) 8,159 12,510 (34.8)
Margins (%) 13.5 22.3 (877)bps 15.3 (184)bps 14.5 21.1 (669)bps
PAT 2,569 4,168 (38.4) 2,975 (13.7) 5,543 8,090 (31.5)
Sales 23,499 25,669 (8.5) 25,448 (7.7) 48,948 51,984 (5.8)
Ambuja Cement
EBITDA 4,631 7,223 (35.9) 5,118 (9.5) 9,749 14,693 (33.6)
Margins (%) 19.7 28.1 (844)bps 20.1 (41)bps 19.9 28.3 (835)bps
PAT 3,057 4,689 (34.8) 4,494 (32.0) 7,551 9,697 (22.1)
Sales 14,487 14,553 (0.5) 14,568 (0.6) 56,890 58,981 (3.5)
Shree Cement
EBITDA 3,761 4,812 (21.8) 4,054 (7.2) 15,697 16,239 (3.3)
Margins (%) 26.0 33.1 (710)bps 27.8 (186)bps 27.6 27.5 6bps
PAT 1,757 3,516 (50.0) 2,741 (35.9) 9,234 6,308 46.4
Sales 49,306 50,719 (2.8) 53,892 (8.5) 225,063 200,181 12.4
Ultratech Cement
EBITDA 10,804 12,918 (16.4) 11,993 (9.9) 51,886 45,227 14.7
Margins (%) 21.9 25.5 (356)bps 22.3 (34)bps 23.1 22.6 46 bps
PAT 6,144 7,784 (21.1) 7,261 (15.4) 30,716 26,554 15.7
Source: Company Data, PL Research ACC & Ambuja Cement ‐ Y/e Dec; Shree Cement ‐ Y/e Jun
Consolidated Sectoral Data
Key Figures (Rs m)
2013 2014E 2015E
Net Sales 465,126 508,910 566,156
Growth (%) 9.3 9.4 11.2
EBITDA 105,108 112,799 128,462
Margin (%) 22.6 22.2 22.7
PAT 64,145 68,331 78,387
Growth (%) 24.9 6.5 14.7
PE (x) 18.4 17.3 15.1
Quarterly Table (Rs m)
Apr‐Jun'13 Apr‐Jun'12 YoY gr. (%) Jan‐Mar'13 QoQ gr. (%)
Net Sales 114,634 120,131 (4.6) 123,020 (6.8)
EBITDA 22,888 31,455 (27.2) 25,631 (10.7)
Margin (%) 20.0 26.2 (622)bps 20.8 (87)bps
PAT (Excl. Ex Items ) 13,527 20,156 (32.9) 17,471 (22.6)
Note: Revenue, EBITDA and PAT numbers are arrived by totaling corresponding numbers of all companies under our coverage in this
sector.
July 8, 2013 90

Apr-Jun 2013 Earnings Preview
ACC
Rating
Reduce
Price (Rs) 1,260
Target Price (Rs) 1,080
M/Cap (Rs bn) 236.8
Shares o/s (m) 188.0
Net revenue is expected to decline by 6.3% YoY on the back of 4.6% YoY (Rs209/t)
fall in realisations and 1.7% fall in volumes at 6.0m tonnes. Cost is expected to rise by
7% or Rs246/t YoY at Rs3,752 due to higher coal prices and freight cost. Hence,
EBITDA/tonne would decline by 42.3% at Rs621. Net profit is expected to decline by
38% at Rs2.6bn.
Key Figures (Rs m)
Y/e Dec CY12 CY13E CY14E
Net Sales 111,306 115,414 123,940
EBITDA 19,690 18,946 22,291
Margin (%) 17.7 16.4 18.0
PAT 13,305 12,425 15,003
EPS (Rs) 70.8 66.1 79.8
Growth (%) 30.3 (6.6) 20.7
RoE (%) 18.5 16.0 17.6
PE (x) 17.8 19.1 15.8
P / BV (x) 3.2 2.9 2.7
EV / E (x) 10.6 11.0 9.5
Quarterly Table (Rs m)
Y/e Dec
Q2
CY13E
Q2
CY12
YoY gr.
(%)
Q1
CY13
H1
CY13E
H1
CY12
YoY gr.
(%)
Net Sales 27,343 29,190 (6.3) 29,111 56,454 59,169 (4.6)
EBITDA 3,693 6,503 (43.2) 4,466 8,159 12,510 (34.8)
Margin (%) 13.5 22.3 (877)bps 15.3 14.5 21.1 (669)bps
Reported PAT 2,569 4,145 (38.0) 4,383 6,952 5,661 22.8
PAT (Excl. Ex Items ) 2,569 4,168 (38.4) 2,975 5,543 8,090 (31.5)
Operating Metrics
Volume (mn te) 6.0 6.1 (1.7) 6.4 12.4 12.8 (3.1)
Net Real. (Rs/te) 4,372 4,581 (4.6) 4,323 4,346 4,392 (1.0)
EBITDA (Rs / te) 621 1,075 (42.3) 696 660 980 (32.7)
Ambuja Cement
Rating
Reduce
Price (Rs) 193
Target Price (Rs) 171
M/Cap (Rs bn) 266.9
Shares o/s (m) 1,381.7
Net revenue is expected to fall 8.5% YoY at Rs23.5bn due to 3% fall in volumes and
5.6% decline in realization at Rs4,301/t. Cost/tonne is expected to rise 5.4% YoY
(Rs178) at Rs3,453 on account of higher energy and freight cost. EBITDA/tonne
would decline 34% YoY at Rs847. Adjusted PAT is expected to fall 34.8% YoY at
Rs3.06bn.
Key Figures (Rs m)
Y/e Dec CY12 CY13E CY14E
Net Sales 96,749 101,899 112,074
EBITDA 24,495 23,501 26,826
Margin (%) 25.3 23.1 23.9
PAT 15,053 15,000 17,330
EPS (Rs) 10.9 10.9 12.5
Growth (%) 41.9 (0.4) 15.5
RoE (%) 17.8 16.1 16.6
PE (x) 17.7 17.8 15.4
P / BV (x) 3.0 2.7 2.4
EV / E (x) 9.4 9.5 8.1
Quarterly Table (Rs m)
Y/e Dec
Q2
CY13E
Q2
CY12
YoY gr.
(%)
Q1
CY13
H1
CY13E
H1
CY12
YoY gr.
(%)
Net Sales 23,499 25,669 (8.5) 25,448 48,948 51,984 (5.8)
EBITDA 4,631 7,223 (35.9) 5,118 9,749 14,693 (33.6)
Margin (%) 19.7 28.1 (844)bps 20.1 19.9 28.3 (835)bps
Reported PAT 3,057 4,689 (34.8) 4,879 7,936 7,811 1.6
PAT (Excl. Ex Items ) 3,057 4,689 (34.8) 4,494 7,551 9,697 (22.1)
Operating Metrics
Volume (mn te) 5.5 5.6 (3.0) 6.0 11.4 11.8 (3.3)
Net Real. (Rs/te) 4,301 4,558 (5.6) 4,273 4,286 4,401 (2.6)
EBITDA/ te (Rs/te) 847 1,283 (33.9) 859 854 1,244 (31.4)
July 8, 2013 91

Apr-Jun 2013 Earnings Preview
Shree Cement
Rating
BUY
Price (Rs) 4,560
Target Price (Rs) 5,150
M/Cap (Rs bn) 158.9
Shares o/s (m) 34.8
Key Figures (Rs m)
Y/e June FY13E FY14E FY15E
Net Sales 56,890 66,534 76,979
EBITDA 15,697 18,465 21,125
Margin (%) 27.6 27.8 27.4
PAT 9,234 10,191 12,088
EPS (Rs) 265.0 292.5 347.0
Growth (%) 46.4 10.4 18.6
RoE (%) 28.8 23.8 22.1
PE (x) 17.2 15.6 13.1
P / BV (x) 4.3 3.3 2.6
EV / E (x) 9.2 7.4 5.9
Revenue of cement biz is expected to decline 10.4% YoY due to fall of 6.5% and 4.2%
in volumes and realisations respectively. Power biz is expected to post 74% growth in
revenue at Rs3bn on the back of 97.4% increase in volumes and 10% fall in
realisations. Cost/t in cement is expected to rise 8% at Rs2,691 owing to higher
freight and lower scale. Hence, EBITDA/t in cement would fall 28.1% YoY (8.7% QoQ)
at Rs950. Thanks to weak performance by cement biz, EBITDA would decline by
21.8% at Rs3.8bn.
Quarterly Table (Rs m)
Y/e June
Q4
FY13E
Q4
FY12
YoY gr.
(%)
Q3
FY12
12M
FY13E
12M
FY12
YoY gr.
(%)
Net Sales 14,487 14,553 (0.5) 14,568 56,890 58,981 (3.5)
EBITDA 3,761 4,812 (21.8) 4,054 15,697 16,239 (3.3)
Margin (%) 26.0 33.1 (710)bps 27.8 27.6 27.5 6 bps
Reported PAT 1,757 3,515 (50.0) 2,741 9,234 6,185 49.3
PAT (Excl. Ex Items ) 1,757 3,516 (50.0) 2,741 9,234 6,308 46.4
Operating Metrics
Vol. (m te)-Cement 3.2 3.4 (6.5) 3.3 12.6 14.9 (15.3)
Vol. (m units)-Power 750 390 92.3 722 2,512 1,322 90.0
Net Real. (Rs/te) 3,647 3,806 (4.2) 3,601 3,719 3,576 4.0
Cmnt. EBITDA (Rs/te) 955 1,321 (27.7) 1,040 1,067 1,025 4.1
Cement EBITDA 3,008 4,450 (32.4) 3,388 13,441 15,245 (11.8)
Power EBITDA 753 361 108.5 666 2,256 994 127.0
UltraTech Cement
Rating
Reduce
Price (Rs) 1,888
Target Price (Rs) 1,755
M/Cap (Rs bn) 517.4
Shares o/s (m) 274.0
Key Figures (Rs m)
Y/e March FY13 FY14E FY15E
Net Sales 200,181 225,063 253,163
EBITDA 45,227 51,886 58,220
Margin (%) 22.6 23.1 23.0
PAT 26,554 30,716 33,967
EPS (Rs) 96.9 112.1 123.9
Growth (%) 15.1 15.7 10.6
RoE (%) 18.8 18.4 17.4
PE (x) 19.5 16.8 15.2
P / BV (x) 3.4 2.9 2.5
EV / E (x) 11.5 10.1 8.6
Domestic grey cement realisations are expected to fall by 3.2% YoY (Rs139/tonne),
while rise by 0.3% QoQ (Rs14/t) at Rs4,161/t. Blended realisations would decrease
by 2.0% YoY (flat QoQ) at Rs4,735/t. Grey cement volumes are expected to fall 0.8%
YoY at 10.1m tonnes. Owing to lower scale, higher freight and raw material cost,
cost/t is expected to escalate by 3% YoY or Rs106/tonne at Rs3,700. Hence, EBITDA/t
would decline by ~15% YoY or 1.2% QoQ at Rs1,038. PAT is expected to fall 21% YoY.
Quarterly Table (Rs m)
Y/e March
Q1
FY14E
Q1
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Q4
FY13
12M
FY14E
12M
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Net Sales 49,306 50,719 (2.8) 53,892 225,063 200,181 12.4
EBITDA 10,804 12,918 (16.4) 11,993 51,886 45,227 14.7
Margin (%) 21.9 25.5 (356)bps 22.3 23.1 22.6 46 bps
Reported PAT 6,144 7,784 (21.1) 7,261 30,716 26,554 15.7
PAT (Excl. Ex Items ) 6,144 7,784 (21.1) 7,261 30,716 26,554 15.7
Operating Metrics
Grey Cement Vol.
(mn te)
10.1 10.1 (0.8) 11.0 41.6 38.0 9.3
Grey Cement Real.
(Rs/te)
Blended
EBITDA/tonne (Rs)
4,161 4,300 (3.2) 4,147
4,335
4,250
1,038 1,227 (15.5) 1,050 1,137 1,092 4.2
2.0
July 8, 2013 92

Apr-Jun 2013 Earnings Preview
Rupa Shah
rupashah@plindia.com
+91-22-6632 2244
Top picks
Larsen & Toubro
Construction
The Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs (CCEA) cleared the most awaited
proposal to facilitate substitution of concessionaire in the ongoing and completed
National Highway Projects (NHAI). This transfer will require involvement and
acceptance by lenders. This decision will be positive as:
! It will expedite the project execution which is stalled as they are facing issues
relating to financial closure
! Renew the interest of private parties as equity raising was the major issue
! Relieve National Highway Authority (NHAI) from heavy financial claims and
unnecessary disputes
Projects which are already awarded and have achieved appointed date, plus projects
to be bid out in future, as per the prescribed mechanism, will be taken into purview.
Post the procedure and permission given by the lenders, substitution will take effect.
However, the leading substituting entity shall be required to maintain atleast 51%
equity holding in the project SPV.
The Uttar Pradesh state government is in talks with potential bidders to develop 11
state highways, in what could be a big push to its mandate to develop road
connectivity across the state. It has been proposed that the highways will be
developed by Uttar Pradesh State Highways Authority (UPSHA) on the public-privatepartnership
(PPP) model.
The prominent projects included the Shahjahanpur‐Hardoi‐Lucknow State Highway,
Basti‐Mehendawal‐Tamkuhi road, Akbarpur to Jaunpur, Mirzapur and Dudhi Road,
Gorakhpur to Maharajganj Road and Muzaffarnagar to Saharanpur via Deoband
Road.
On April 24, 2013, the government held a pre-application conference for the Agra‐
Lucknow project in New Delhi where 15 prominent developers including GVK, GMR,
ESSEL Infra and IL&FS Transportation, among others, had participated. The project
will be developed at an estimated project cost of Rs96bn on Build-Operate-Transfer
(BOT) model, for a 30-year concession period.
In AP too, being an election year, the Union Minister of State for Road Transport and
Highways announced that the 1817km new National Highways will be developed at
the cost of Rs50bn through the PPP model in the state. Of this, 485 km of National
Highways were notified in Aug-Sep 2012 and are stretches of various lengths forming
part of NH 326. Rest of the 1332 state roads to be developed in National highways
has been notified on March 22, 2013.
July 8, 2013 93

Apr-Jun 2013 Earnings Preview
Under the Special Accelerated Road Development Programme (SARDP-NE), CCEA
approved four-laning of the ‘Jorhat-Demow’ section of National Highway-37 in the
state of Assam on Design, Build, Finance, Operate and Transfer (DBFOT) basis in BOT
(Annuity) mode of delivery. The cost is estimated to be Rs8bn, excluding land
acquisition and other pre-construction activities. The total length of the road will be
approx. 80kms. The committee also approved four-laning of the Demow-Bogibil
junction section of National Highway-37 in the state of Assam on DBFOT basis
Annuity mode of delivery. The cost is estimated to be Rs.4.7bn, excluding land
acquisition and other pre-construction activities. The total length of road will be
approx. 46kms.
Meanwhile in April 2013, the entire length of Golden Quadrilateral (GQ) has been
completed, except 110 meters. The North-South and East-West corridor has also
been completed, except 636km under implementation and 372km to be awarded.
The details of funds allocated and released to NHAI for NHDP, including GQ and
North-South and East-West projects during the last three years are:
Expenditure by NHAI
(Rs bn)
2010‐11 2011‐12 2012‐13
Allocation 104 109 77
Release 104 88 78
Source: NHAI, Industry
Quarterly Snapshot (Rs bn)
On the execution from the ground level, situation has remained more or less same
and with early monsoons and slow-moving projects, revenue and earnings growth is
expected to be muted. Order inflows stood at Rs242bn which is down by 21% YoY
and 15.9% QoQ. Order inflows were mainly in the areas of urban infrastructure and
buildings. Hydrocarbon and Power continued to drag. The major order in Q1FT14E
was Rs66bn from DMRC to L&T.
Order Inflow trend Q3FY11 Q4FY11 Q1FY12 Q2FY12 Q3FY12 Q4FY12 Q1FY13 Q2FY13 Q3FY13 Q4FY13 Q1FY14E
L&T 133 301 162 161 171 211 196 196 198 279 197
Punj Lloyd 42 17 24 18 29 15 20 19 24 11 10
IVRCL 36 6 9 22 34 44 47 16 5 7 6
Hindustan Construction 1 7 10 0 6 3 10 15 5 4 0
Nagarjuna Construction 28 0 14 17 66 0 20 6 6 5 0
Engineers India 19 3 1 3 3 1 1 9 2 2 1
Total 258 335 220 222 309 274 296 261 240 308 215
Source: BSE, PL Research, Company Data
July 8, 2013 94

Apr-Jun 2013 Earnings Preview
Order book trend – Construction (Coverage companies)
(Rs bn)
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Order inflow
Order Book (RHS)
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
Q2FY11
Q3FY11
Q4FY11
Q1FY12
Q2FY12
Q3FY12
Q4FY12
(Rs bn)
Q1FY13
Q2FY13
Q3FY13
Q4FY13
Q1FY14E
Source: Company Data, PL Research
Order book trend – Engineering (Coverage companies)
Order Inflow
Order Book (RHS)
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
Q2FY11
Q3FY11
Q4FY11
Q1FY12
Q2FY12
Q3FY12
Q4FY12
Q1FY13
Q2FY13
Q3FY13
Q4FY13
Q1FY14E
(Rs bn)
(Rs bn)
Source: Company Data, PL Research
Sectoral Order Inflow (Rs bn)
Segments FY11 FY12 FY13 Q1FY13 Q2FY13 Q3FY13 Q4FY13 Q1FY14E
Roads 350 623 296 106 57 58 75 8
Water 56 83 59 18 18 10 13 15
Bldg/Industrial capex/Urban Dev 232 204 305 73 63 97 73 161
Power 323 265 190 55 28 24 83 31
Process & Hydrocarbon 249 255 115 17 38 46 15 16
Others 155 162 177 38 52 59 29 13
Total 1,365 1,591 1,143 306 256 293 288 244
Source: BSE, PL Research, Company Data (covers 85‐90% of the listed company’s data, thus indicative)
July 8, 2013 95

Apr-Jun 2013 Earnings Preview
Stock Performance
Absolute
Relative to Sensex
1M 3M 6M 12M 1M 3M 6M 12M
Engineers India (11.7) (9.4) (41.1) (38.4) (11.2) (14.3) (39.0) (48.7)
GMR Infrastructure (14.5) (19.5) (15.7) (32.7) (14.0) (24.4) (13.6) (43.0)
Jaiprakash Associates (19.2) (19.5) (47.6) (32.7) (18.6) (24.3) (45.5) (43.0)
Larsen & Toubro (0.7) 5.8 (10.5) (0.1) (0.1) 1.0 (8.3) (10.4)
NCC (12.7) (14.1) (55.7) (38.6) (12.1) (18.9) (53.6) (48.9)
Punj Lloyd (23.8) (36.7) (46.6) (41.6) (23.2) (41.5) (44.5) (51.9)
Source: Bloomberg, PL Research
Summary Financials ‐ Quarterly (Rs m)
Engineers India
GMR Infrastructure
Jaiprakash
Associates
La rs en & Toubro
NCC
Punj Lloyd
Source: Company Data, PL Research
Q1FY14E Q1FY13 YoY gr. (%) Q4FY13 QoQ gr. (%) 12MFY14E 12MFY13 YoY gr. (%)
Sales 6,845 7,200 (4.9) 5,135 33.3 24,057 25,059 (4.0)
EBITDA 1,433 1,509 (5.0) 1,346 6.4 5,647 6,138 (8.0)
Margins (%) 20.9 21.0 (3)bps 26.2 (529)bps 23.5 24.5 (102)bps
PAT 1,428 1,543 (7.5) 1,702 (16.1) 5,518 6,181 (10.7)
Sales 27,845 25,336 9.9 25,711 8.3 131,618 98,719 33.3
EBITDA 6,700 5,679 18.0 7,605 (11.9) 32,137 23,952 34.2
Margins (%) 24.1 22.4 165 bps 29.6 (552)bps 24.4 24.3 15 bps
PAT (1,221) (1,426) (14.4) (787) 55.1 (2,627) (5,697) (53.9)
Sales 29,636 29,636 ‐ 38,642 (23.3) 145,856 132,087 10.4
EBITDA 7,385 7,713 (4.3) 8,507 (13.2) 34,266 31,755 7.9
Margins (%) 24.9 26.0 (111)bps 22.0 290 bps 23.5 24.0 (55)bps
PAT 1,128 1,382 (18.4) 1,235 (8.6) 6,930 5,013 38.2
Sales 133,554 119,554 11.7 202,938 (34.2) 689,490 608,738 13.3
EBITDA 14,440 13,040 10.7 24,509 (41.1) 73,520 64,200 14.5
Margins (%) 10.8 10.9 (10)bps 12.1 (126)bps 10.7 10.5 12 bps
PAT 8,970 8,506 5.5 17,692 (49.3) 47,551 45,499 4.5
Sales 15,012 14,721 2.0 16,783 (10.6) 62,595 56,594 10.6
EBITDA 1,100 1,167 (5.7) 940 17.1 4,881 4,055 20.4
Margins (%) 7.3 7.9 (60)bps 5.6 173 bps 7.8 7.2 63 bps
PAT 119 166 (28.2) 268 (55.5) 747 503 48.5
Sales 28,741 27,068 6.2 31,980 (10.1) 133,533 114,082 17.0
EBITDA 1,729 2,190 (21.0) 1,671 3.5 9,844 8,410 17.1
Margins (%) 6.0 8.1 (207)bps 5.2 79 bps 7.4 7.4 0 bps
PAT (453) (133) 239.8 153 (395.9) 633 (1,141) (155.5)
July 8, 2013 96

Apr-Jun 2013 Earnings Preview
Consolidated Sectoral Data
Key Figures (Rs m)
2013 2014E 2015E
Net Sales 1,035,279 1,187,149 1,362,733
Growth (%) 10.7 14.7 14.8
EBITDA 138,510 160,294 186,165
Margin (%) 13.4 13.5 13.7
PAT 50,358 58,753 73,789
Growth (%) (5.2) 16.7 25.6
PE (x) 22.1 18.9 15.1
Quarterly Table (Rs m)
Apr‐Jun'13 Apr‐Jun'12 YoY gr. (%) Jan‐Mar'13 QoQ gr. (%)
Net Sales 241,633 223,514 8.1 321,188 (24.8)
EBITDA 32,787 31,297 4.8 44,577 (26.4)
Margin (%) 13.6 14.0 (43)bps 13.9 (31)bps
PAT (Excl. Ex Items) 9,971 10,037 (0.7) 20,264 (50.8)
Note: Revenue, EBITDA and PAT numbers are arrived by totaling corresponding numbers of all companies under our coverage in this
sector.
Engineers India
Rating
Accumulate
Price (Rs) 141
Target Price (Rs) 167
M/Cap (Rs bn) 47.4
Shares o/s (m) 336.9
Key Figures (Rs m)
Y/e March FY13 FY14E FY15E
Net Sales 25,059 24,057 25,981
EBITDA 6,138 5,647 5,821
Margin (%) 24.5 23.5 22.4
PAT 6,181 5,518 5,241
EPS (Rs) 18.3 16.4 15.6
Growth (%) (2.9) (10.7) (5.0)
RoE (%) 30.3 23.1 19.5
PE (x) 7.7 8.6 9.0
P / BV (x) 2.1 1.9 1.7
EV / E (x) 4.7 4.2 3.8
Order intake in Q1FY14E is expected to be at Rs2bn. The company is expected to win
some major orders aggregating to Rs10-12bn in FY14E. We are expecting
contribution from LSTK to grow and thus, EBITDA margin is expected to remain flat
YoY.
Quarterly Table (Rs m)
Y/e March
Q1
FY14E
Q1
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Q4
FY13
12M
FY14E
12M
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Net Sales 6,845 7,200 (4.9) 5,135 24,057 25,059 (4.0)
EBITDA 1,433 1,509 (5.0) 1,346 5,647 6,138 (8.0)
Margin (%) 20.9 21.0 (3)bps 26.2 23.5 24.5 (102)bps
Reported PAT 1,428 1,543 (7.5) 1,807 5,518 6,569 (16.0)
PAT (Excl. Ex Items) 1,428 1,543 (7.5) 1,702 5,518 6,181 (10.7)
Operating Metrics
Consultancy (Rs m) 2,974 2,892 2.8 3,027 12,028 12,342 (2.5)
LSTK (Rs m) 3,871 4,308 (10.1) 2,108 12,028 12,717 (5.4)
Other Inc. / PAT (%) 50.4 47.5 296 bps 58.2 42.4 48.2 (574)bps
Order Book (Rs bn) 28.2 41.4 (31.9) 33.0 25.5 33.0 (22.7)
July 8, 2013 97

Apr-Jun 2013 Earnings Preview
GMR Infrastructure
Rating
Accumulate
Price (Rs) 18
Target Price (Rs) 23
M/Cap (Rs bn) 68.9
Shares o/s (m) 3,892.1
Key Figures (Rs m)
Y/e March FY13 FY14E FY15E
Net Sales 98,719 131,618 154,525
EBITDA 23,952 32,137 35,892
Margin (%) 24.3 24.4 23.2
PAT (5,697) (2,627) 1,117
EPS (Rs) (1.5) (0.7) 0.3
Growth (%) (22.3) (53.9) (142.5)
RoE (%) (6.8) (3.3) 1.6
PE (x) (12.1) (26.2) 61.7
P / BV (x) 0.7 1.0 1.0
EV / E (x) 17.2 13.4 11.2
GMR declared the COD of the first unit of the Kamalanga 350MW project. GMR
Bajoli Holi Hydropower (180MWs), a step-down subsidiary of the company, has
achieved a financial tie-up with IDBI Bank, L&T Infrastructure Finance Company and
L&T Finance.
Quarterly Table (Rs m)
Y/e March
Q1
FY14E
Q1
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Q4
FY13
12M
FY14E
12M
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Net Sales 27,845 25,336 9.9 25,711 131,618 98,719 33.3
EBITDA 6,700 5,679 18.0 7,605 32,137 23,952 34.2
Margin (%) 24.1 22.4 165 bps 29.6 24.4 24.3 15 bps
Reported PAT (1,221) (943) 29.4 5,792 (2,627) 882 (397.8)
PAT (Excl. Ex Items) (1,221) (1,426) (14.4) (787) (2,627) (5,697) (53.9)
Operating Metrics
Airports (Rs m) 18,021 12,843 40.3 17,310 47,890 61,219 (21.8)
Power (Rs m) 5,012 7,463 (32.8) 5,089 52,455 24,208 116.7
Debt (Rs bn) 385 392 (1.8) 393 394 393 0.1
Int. as a % to sales 21.0 19.0 202 bps 23.7 17.0 21.3 (428)bps
Jaiprakash Associates
Rating
Accumulate
Price (Rs) 52
Target Price (Rs) 60
M/Cap (Rs bn) 115.5
Shares o/s (m) 2,219.1
Key Figures (Rs m)
Y/e March FY13 FY14E FY15E
Net Sales 132,087 145,856 166,751
EBITDA 31,755 34,266 39,205
Margin (%) 24.0 23.5 23.5
PAT 5,013 6,930 9,728
EPS (Rs) 2.3 3.1 4.4
Growth (%) (53.2) 38.2 40.4
RoE (%) 3.9 5.1 6.8
PE (x)* 6.0 4.4 3.1
P / BV (x) 0.9 0.8 0.8
EV / E (x) 10.5 9.0 7.7
*Adj. for Subs. Valn of Rs42/share
JPA’s cement dispatches for Q1FY14E are expected to be at 3.8m tonnes (excl. South
& Gujarat) as against 4.0m tonnes in Q4FY13, registering a de-growth of 5% QoQ.
We expect realizations to be flat QoQ at Rs206/bag. EBIT margins will be down
60bps on a QoQ basis; however, up by 270bps YoY. EPC will also see a de-growth of
5% YoY.
Quarterly Table (Rs m)
Y/e March
Q1
FY14E
Q1
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Q4
FY13
12M
FY14E
12M
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Net Sales 29,636 29,636 0.0 38,642 145,856 132,087 10.4
EBITDA 7,385 7,713 (4.3) 8,507 34,266 31,755 7.9
Margin (%) 24.9 26.0 (111)bps 22.0 23.5 24.0 (55)bps
Reported PAT 1,128 1,382 (18.4) 1,235 6,930 5,013 38.2
PAT (Excl. Ex Items) 1,128 1,382 (18.4) 1,235 6,930 5,013 38.2
Operating Metrics
Const. (Rs m) 11,452 12,160 (5.8) 15,327 59,500 53,143 12.0
Cement Prod. (Rs m) 15,660 15,629 0.2 16,363 71,081 60,459 17.6
Debt (Rs bn) 229 180 27.2 230 209 230 (9.3)
Int. as a % to sales 15.7 15.7 0 bps 14.2 12.6 15.2 (259)bps
EBIT per Tonne Rs 539 453 19.0 560 489 484 0.9
July 8, 2013 98

Apr-Jun 2013 Earnings Preview
Larsen & Toubro
Rating
Accumulate
Price (Rs) 1,403
Target Price (Rs) 1,645
M/Cap (Rs bn) 863.4
Shares o/s (m) 615.4
Key Figures (Rs m)
Y/e March FY13 FY14E FY15E
Net Sales 608,738 689,490 794,395
EBITDA 64,200 73,520 88,497
Margin (%) 10.5 10.7 11.1
PAT 45,499 47,551 55,385
EPS (Rs) 73.9 77.3 90.0
Growth (%) 2.4 4.5 16.5
RoE (%) 16.7 15.4 15.9
PE (x)* 13.2 12.6 10.8
P / BV (x) 3.0 2.7 2.3
EV / E (x) 14.6 12.8 10.6
*Adj. for Subs. Val of Rs430/share
Order inflow is expected to be at Rs197bn (there could be some order bookings
which are not disclosed to the tune of Rs60-70bn) as against Rs279bn in Q4FY13 and
Rs196bn in Q1FY13. The single largest order in this quarter is Rs67bn from DFC.
Buildings and Urban Infra segment still looks strong.
Quarterly Table (Rs m)
Y/e March
Q1
FY14E
Q1
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Q4
FY13
12M
FY14E
12M
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Net Sales 133,554 119,554 11.7 202,938 689,490 608,738 13.3
EBITDA 14,440 13,040 10.7 24,509 73,520 64,200 14.5
Margin (%) 10.8 10.9 (10)bps 12.1 10.7 10.5 12 bps
Reported PAT 8,970 8,637 3.9 17,879 47,551 49,107 (3.2)
PAT (Excl. Ex Items) 8,970 8,506 5.5 17,692 47,551 45,499 4.5
Operating Metrics
E&C (Rs m) 118,863 104,898 13.3 183,923 552,281 545,010 1.3
E&E (Rs m) 5,342 7,603 (29.7) 11,169 28,973 36,440 (20.5)
Order intake (Rs bn) 197 196 0.7 279 1,028 880 16.8
Order Book (Rs bn) 1,600 1,531 4.5 1,536 1,875 1,536 22.0
NCC
Rating
Accumulate
Price (Rs) 27
Target Price (Rs) 33
M/Cap (Rs bn) 6.8
Shares o/s (m) 256.6
Key Figures (Rs m)
Y/e March FY13 FY14E FY15E
Net Sales 56,594 62,595 68,854
EBITDA 4,055 4,881 5,357
Margin (%) 7.2 7.8 7.8
PAT 503 747 1,071
EPS (Rs) 2.0 2.9 4.2
Growth (%) 39.6 48.5 43.3
RoE (%) 2.1 3.0 4.1
PE (x)* 3.6 3.1 2.5
P / BV (x) 0.3 0.3 0.3
EV / E (x) 7.0 5.6 4.8
*Adj to Sub Valn & Int. Earnings of Rs11/sh.
NCC has not reported any orders on exchanges and thus, we believe, there could be
an order inflow below Rs2-3bn in Q1FY14E. Revenues will show a 2% growth YoY and
margins are expected to be at 7.3% down by 60bps YoY. However, an increase in
margins is expected to be hampered by higher interest costs.
Quarterly Table (Rs m)
Y/e March
Q1
FY14E
Q1
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Q4
FY13
12M
FY14E
12M
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Net Sales 15,012 14,721 2.0 16,783 62,595 56,594 10.6
EBITDA 1,100 1,167 (5.7) 940 4,881 4,055 20.4
Margin (%) 7.3 7.9 (60)bps 5.6 7.8 7.2 63 bps
Reported PAT 119 166 (28.2) 272 747 639 16.9
PAT (Excl. Ex Items) 119 166 (28.2) 268 747 503 48.5
Operating Metrics
OB (Rs bn) 169 200 (15.5) 184 150 186 (19.0)
Pwr/Elec./Metals/
O&G (Rs m)
3,222 3,680 (12.4)
4,196 9,389 8,489 10.6
Bldgs. (Rs m) 5,035 4,122 22.2 4,699 15,649 14,149 10.6
Int. as a % to sales 6.7 6.3 33 bps 6.7 5.7 7.2 (148)bps
Debt (Rs bn) 25.0 24.5 2.0 26.0 21.7 22.3 (2.8)
July 8, 2013 99

Apr-Jun 2013 Earnings Preview
Punj Lloyd
Rating
Accumulate
Price (Rs) 33
Target Price (Rs) 46
M/Cap (Rs bn) 10.9
Shares o/s (m) 331.9
Key Figures (Rs m)
Y/e March FY13 FY14E FY15E
Net Sales 114,082 133,533 152,227
EBITDA 8,410 9,844 11,392
Margin (%) 7.4 7.4 7.5
PAT (1,141) 633 1,248
EPS (Rs) (3.4) 1.9 3.8
Growth (%) 51.8 (155.5) 97.2
RoE (%) (3.8) 2.1 3.9
PE (x) (9.5) 17.2 8.7
P / BV (x) 0.4 0.3 0.3
EV / E (x) 9.3 8.2 6.4
Apart from securing Rs7bn project from ONGC in the offshore segment, we don’t
expect any major traction in order inflows. We are expecting a revival of 80bps QoQ
in the margins as orders taken last year were at relatively better margins.
Quarterly Table (Rs m)
Y/e March
Q1
FY14E
Q1
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Q4
FY13
12M
FY14E
12M
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Net Sales 28,741 27,068 6.2 31,980 133,533 114,082 17.0
EBITDA 1,729 2,190 (21.0) 1,671 9,844 8,410 17.1
Margin (%) 6.0 8.1 (207)bps 5.2 7.4 7.4 0 bps
Reported PAT (453) (133) 239.8 153 630 (73) (965.1)
PAT (Excl. Ex Items) (453) (133) 239.8 153 633 (1,141) (155.5)
Operating Metrics
Pipeline (Rs m) 3,412 4,123 (17.2) 5,512 22,860 31,840 (28.2)
Infrastructure (Rs m) 19,977 8,542 133.9 21,268 42,700 26,110 63.5
Debt (Rs bn) 72 54 33.3 75 78 75 3.2
OB (Rs bn) 209 247 (15.4) 225 309 225 37.2
Int. as a % to sales 6.5 6.8 (28)bps 6.1 5.3 6.8 (153)bps
July 8, 2013 100

Apr-Jun 2013 Earnings Preview
Amnish Aggarwal
amnishaggarwal@plindia.com
+91-22-6632 2233
Gaurav Jogani
gauravjogani@plindia.com
+91-22-6632 2238
Top picks
ITC
Britannia Industries
Consumer
Q1FY14 PAT to grow by 13.2%, volume growth to remain muted
We expect Q1FY14 sales to increase by 14.2% for our coverage universe, lowest
growth since Q3FY11. This is the lowest, EBITDA is expected to grow at 17% as
margins expand 51bps YoY. Higher tax rate and lower other income will curtail PAT
growth to 13.2% YoY. We expect volume growth to remain sluggish as discretionary
spending continues to remain impacted. Input costs are a silver lining as prices of
most commodities have been benign.
Discretionary spending remains subdued
Consumer demand remains impacted as high CPI inflation and low growth in
incomes impacts consumer sentiment. Spend on discretionary items like Watches,
Pizzas, Processed foods, Skin creams and Beauty products remained under pressure.
Although volume growth has been coming off since past 2/3 quarters, consumer
companies are confirming setback to premiumisation trend also. Gold jewellery
demand has seen sharp an upsurge due to decline in prices; however, sustainability
of demand remains doubtful, given the volatile price trends and bleak outlook on
prices. Rural demand continues to grow faster than urban demand and with good
monsoons the trend is expected to continue in the near future.
Depreciating rupee raises input costs
Input costs were benign for key commodities like PFAD, Tio2, Sugar and Copra for
the better part of the quarter. However, 10% depreciation of rupee in the month of
June will negate the benefits in Q2FY14. Wheat still continues to remain sideways.
Prices of PFAD are down 35% YoY and Tio2 prices are down 22% YoY. However, we
note that gains from benign input costs will tend to peter off from Q2FY14. DuPont
has increased Tio2 prices by 5%, PFAD prices have moved up by 29% from the lows
and Milk prices have been increased by 5% recently. We believe with the recent
depreciation in rupee, the gains from lower commodities prices will tend to reduce
in the coming quarters.
Ad‐spends & Sales promotion rising gradually
Segments like Detergents, Soaps and Skin creams have witnessed higher advertising
spends and sales promotion. HUL has cut the prices of Wheel by 10%, while Surf Easy
wash has seen Rs22 off on 700gm pack priced at Rs92. Most of the soap brands
across players have seen consumer offers as benefits of lower PFAD prices have
been partially passed on. Toothpaste market is witnessing 1) occupation of shelf
space 2) higher ad-spends and 3) sales promotions ahead of P&G launch of Oral B
toothpaste. Jubilant has also raised its ad spends and promotions after a continued
slowdown in SSS growth.
July 8, 2013 101

Apr-Jun 2013 Earnings Preview
Competition to intensify as new product launches gather momentum
New product launches are gathering momentum. P&G has launched Oral B
toothpaste, a long awaited launch. ITC has entered high growth Deodorant segment
with Engage brand; it has also launched Vivel Cell Renew range of personal care
products. HUL has launched TIGI and Lakme Youth Infinity. Dabur has launched Real
Supra fruits and Real Activ drinking Yoghurt in foods and Gel Bleach in personal care.
We note that most of the new launches are on the premium end despite trend of
slowdown in discretionary spends and setback to premiumisation in the past couple
of quarters.
Prefer ITC in large caps and Britannia in midcaps
Consumer sector has seen a sharp re-rating in the past 12 months as defensive bet in
an otherwise slowing economy. In addition to the long-term consumption story,
steady growth and strong cash flows have aided P/E multiple expansion even as
volume growth has slowed down considerably. We believe that normal monsoons
will keep the rural demand strong, while a meaningful pick up in urban demand is
some time away. Implementation of food security bill can increase the disposable
income at the bottom end and boost volumes. ITC and Britannia are our top picks in
the space.
LAB Prices are ruling firm, up 5% YoY
140.0
130.0
120.0
113.1 114.1
121.1
(Rs/Kg)
110.0
100.0
90.0
90.1
86.1
109.1
80.0
70.0
79.1
60.0
Jun-09
Sep-09
Dec-09
Mar-10
Jun-10
Sep-10
Dec-10
Mar-11
Jun-11
Sep-11
Dec-11
Mar-12
Jun-12
Sep-12
Dec-12
Mar-13
Jun-13
Source: Bloomberg, PL Research
July 8, 2013 102

Apr-Jun 2013 Earnings Preview
Wheat prices down 3% QoQ; outlook benign
(Rs / Quintal)
1,800
1,700
1,600
1,500
1,400
1,300
1,200
1,100
1,000
1,183
1,219
1,342
1,465
1,572
Nov-10
Dec-10
Jan-11
Feb-11
Mar-11
Apr-11
May-11
Jun-11
Jul-11
Aug-11
Sep-11
Oct-11
Nov-11
Dec-11
Jan-12
Feb-12
Mar-12
Apr-12
May-12
Jun-12
Jul-12
Aug-12
Sep-12
Oct-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Source: Bloomberg, PL Research
PFAD prices have increased by 13% QoQ,
gains to start petering out in 3/6 months
PFAD prices down 35% YoY, up 13% QoQ, HUL to benefit
(%)
80.0
60.0
40.0
20.0
0.0
60.6
40.8
40.0
3.8
11.8
-23.5
20.2
7.5
YoY QoQ
56.2
0.9
18.2
26.6
22.1
-16.0
-13.5
-16.3
-27.5
-18.5
-35.0
13.3
-20.0
-5.6
-2.9
-40.0
Dec-10
Mar-11
Jun-11
Sep-11
Dec-11
Mar-12
Jun-12
Sep-12
Dec-12
Mar-13
Jun-13
Source: Bloomberg, PL Research
Sugar prices remain benign, trend likely to
Sugar prices remain benign; down 17% from 2012 highs and 2.5% QoQ
sustain as global prices are at a 36‐month
low
4,100
3,900
3,820
3,700
3,500
3,300
3,100
2,900
2,913
3,010
3,245
3,220
2,700
2,500
Jun-10
Aug-10
Oct-10
Dec-10
Feb-11
Apr-11
Jun-11
Aug-11
Oct-11
Dec-11
Feb-12
Apr-12
Jun-12
Aug-12
Oct-12
Dec-12
Feb-13
Apr-13
Jun-13
Source: Bloomberg, PL Research
July 8, 2013 103

Apr-Jun 2013 Earnings Preview
Copra ‐ YoY impact fades out; up ~6% YoY; down 2% QoQ
7,500
7,000
6,500
6,000
5,500
5,000
4,500
4,000
3,500
3,000
6200
4150
4750
4850
4450
Aug-10
Oct-10
Dec-10
Feb-11
Apr-11
Jun-11
Aug-11
Oct-11
Dec-11
Feb-12
Apr-12
Jun-12
Aug-12
Oct-12
Dec-12
Feb-13
Apr-13
Jun-13
Source: Bloomberg, PL Research
Rupee depreciation and 5% price increase
Tio2 prices are down 22% YoY, up 2% QoQ
by DuPont will push prices higher
70.0
60.0
50.0
40.0
30.0
20.0
10.0
0.0
-10.0
-20.0
-30.0
59.2
-12.6
-22.0
Jul 09
Oct 09
Jan 10
Apr 10
Jul 10
Oct 10
Jan 11
Apr 11
Jul 11
Oct 11
Jan 12
Apr 12
Jul 12
Oct 12
Jan 13
Apr 13
Source: Bloomberg, PL Research
Volume growth has slowed down; Q3 salvaged by a late Diwali
Volume growth (%) 1QFY12 2QFY12 3QFY12 4QFY12 1QFY13 2QFY13 3QFY13 4QFY13 1QFY14E
Asian Paints 15 15 12 18 -2 5 13 2.5 6
Britannia 12 10 7 5.5 3.5 2 5.5 3 6
Colgate 12 13 13 12 11 10 8 12 11
GSK Consumer 14 8 12 7 7 6 8 8 7.5
ITC (Cigarettes) 8 7.5 6 6 1.5 0.5 1.5 2.5 1
HUVR 8.3 9.8 9.1 10 9 7 5 6.3 5
MRCO
Parachute 10 10 13 11.1 18 9 6 5 6
Saffola 15 11 15 3.3 12 6 4 5 7
Value added Hair Oil 32 26 20 17.5 25 20 30 24 20
Retail
Titan (Gold) 35 3 -5 -7 -21 -11 12 8 30
Jubilant (SSS) 36.7 26.7 30.1 33.2 22.3 19.8 16.1 7.7 8
Source: Company Data, PL Research
July 8, 2013 104

Apr-Jun 2013 Earnings Preview
New Products Introduced during the quarter
Company Name Product Segment Product Name Product offerings
HUL Hair Care TIGI (Toni & Guy) Hair Colour, Shampoo, Wax and Mousse
HUL Skin care Lakme (Youth Infinity) Firming serum
Devendra Patel Personal care Layer'r Perfume and Deodorants
ITC Personal care Engage Couple Deodorant
ITC Personal care Vivel Cell Renew
Face Moisturiser, Hand Crème and Body
lotion
ITC Noodles Yippee Chinese Noodles
Colgate Oral Care Visible White Tooth Paste
GSK Consumer Oral Care Sensodyne Repair and Protect Tooth Paste
Dabur Packaged Fruit Juices Real Supra Fruits Fruit Juice
Dabur Packaged Fruit Juices Real Activ Drinking Yoghurt Fruit juice based drinking Yoghurt
Dabur Personal care Oxy life Gel Bleach Gel-based Facial Bleach
Nestle Prepared Dishes Magic Masala Noodles
Britannia Biscuits Treat (Ice Creamy) Cream Biscuits
Parle Biscuits Gold Star Cookies
Source: Company Data, PL Research
Stock Performance
Absolute
Relative to Sensex
1M 3M 6M 12M 1M 3M 6M 12M
Asian Paints 2.1 1.1 6.3 25.8 2.6 (3.7) 8.5 15.5
Britannia Industries (3.0) 28.9 33.8 25.4 (2.5) 24.1 35.9 15.1
Colgate Palmolive (2.8) 7.8 (8.7) 21.2 (2.2) 3.0 (6.6) 10.9
GlaxoSmithKline Consumer Healthcare (1.4) 28.3 39.7 102.0 (0.9) 23.5 41.8 91.7
Hindustan Unilever 3.1 27.6 16.0 38.7 3.7 22.8 18.1 28.4
ITC 3.8 18.4 21.4 37.2 4.4 13.6 23.5 26.9
Jubilant FoodWorks 3.7 (0.4) (14.1) (10.0) 4.2 (5.2) (12.0) (20.3)
Marico (10.2) (4.7) (9.2) 13.9 (9.7) (9.5) (7.1) 3.6
Pidilite Industries (5.5) 2.5 15.8 56.4 (5.0) (2.3) 17.9 46.1
Titan Industries (14.4) (7.6) (14.3) 1.5 (13.8) (12.4) (12.1) (8.7)
Source: Bloomberg, PL Research
July 8, 2013 105

Apr-Jun 2013 Earnings Preview
Summary Financials ‐ Quarterly (Rs m)
Asian Paints
Britannia
Industries
Colgate Palmolive
Q1FY14E Q1FY13 YoY gr. (%) Q4FY13 QoQ gr. (%) 12MFY14E 12MFY13 YoY gr. (%)
Sales 28,694 25,393 13.0 27,137 5.7 126,129 109,707 15.0
EBITDA 5,165 4,379 18.0 3,735 38.3 21,077 17,319 21.7
Margins (%) 18.0 17.2 76 bps 13.8 423 bps 16.7 15.8 92 bps
PAT 3,283 2,884 13.8 2,511 30.7 13,380 11,137 20.1
Sales 13,948 12,289 13.5 15,024 (7.2) 65,006 56,155 15.8
EBITDA 976 723 35.0 1,319 (26.0) 4,770 3,716 28.4
Margins (%) 7.0 5.9 111 bps 8.8 (178)bps 7.3 6.6 72 bps
PAT 589 435 35.5 878 (33.0) 2,950 2,339 26.1
Sales 8,881 7,561 17.5 8,315 6.8 36,325 31,566 15.1
EBITDA 1,824 1,625 12.3 1,687 8.2 7,305 6,366 14.8
Margins (%) 20.5 21.5 (94)bps 20.3 26 bps 20.1 20.2 (6)bps
PAT 1,298 1,174 10.6 1,232 5.4 5,335 4,830 10.5
Sales 8,392 7,297 15.0 9,399 (10.7) 17,790 15,428 15.3
EBITDA 1,385 1,107 25.1 1,708 (18.9) 3,092 2,724 13.5
GlaxoSmithKline
Consumer
Healthcare
Margins (%) 16.5 15.2 133 bps 18.2 (167)bps 17.4 17.7 (27)bps
PAT 1,265 1,066 18.7 1,564 (19.1) 2,829 2,386 18.6
Sales 70,485 63,788 10.5 64,658 9.0 288,487 258,102 11.8
EBITDA 11,066 9,665 14.5 9,718 13.9 46,054 40,037 15.0
Hindustan Unilever
Margins (%) 15.7 15.2 55 bps 15.0 67 bps 16.0 15.5 45 bps
PAT 8,713 8,546 2.0 7,808 11.6 34,935 31,882 9.6
Sales 77,200 67,131 15.0 82,574 (6.5) 345,450 299,013 15.5
ITC
EBITDA 27,561 23,683 16.4 27,063 1.8 125,386 106,275 18.0
Margins (%) 35.7 35.3 42 bps 32.8 293 bps 36.3 35.5 75 bps
PAT 18,784 16,021 17.2 19,280 (2.6) 85,312 74,184 15.0
Sales 4,089 3,145 30.0 3,658 11.8 19,122 14,076 35.8
EBITDA 695 573 21.4 612 13.6 3,156 2,444 29.1
Jubilant
FoodWorks
Ma rico
Pidilite Industries
Titan Industries
Source: Company Data, PL Research
Margins (%) 17.0 18.2 (121)bps 16.7 27 bps 16.5 17.4 (86)bps
PAT 373 323 15.3 327 14.0 1,654 1,351 22.4
Sales 14,319 12,672 13.0 9,973 43.6 50,687 45,962 10.3
EBITDA 2,220 1,847 20.2 1,189 86.6 7,846 6,258 25.4
Margins (%) 15.5 14.6 92 bps 11.9 357 bps 15.5 13.6 186 bps
PAT 1,487 1,238 20.1 839 77.2 5,117 3,959 29.2
Sales 10,630 9,125 16.5 7,608 39.7 39,762 33,317 19.3
EBITDA 2,317 1,907 21.5 1,248 85.7 7,498 6,136 22.2
Margins (%) 21.8 20.9 90 bps 16.4 540 bps 18.9 18.4 44 bps
PAT 1,707 1,333 28.1 938 81.9 5,511 4,548 21.2
Sales 27,286 22,366 22.0 26,132 4.4 118,762 101,127 17.4
EBITDA 3,001 2,429 23.6 2,665 12.6 12,242 10,106 21.1
Margins (%) 11.0 10.9 14 bps 10.2 80 bps 10.3 10.0 31 bps
PAT 2,206 1,870 18.0 1,850 19.3 8,233 7,252 13.5
July 8, 2013 106

Apr-Jun 2013 Earnings Preview
Consolidated Sectoral Data
Key Figures (Rs m)
2013 2014E 2015E
Net Sales 981,048 1,126,557 1,316,562
Growth (%) 16.8 14.8 16.9
EBITDA 204,540 242,406 287,534
Margin (%) 20.8 21.5 21.8
PAT 145,850 167,707 201,640
Growth (%) 20.1 15.0 20.2
PE (x) 37.9 33.0 27.4
Quarterly Table (Rs m)
Apr‐Jun'13 Apr‐Jun'12 YoY gr. (%) Jan‐Mar'13 QoQ gr. (%)
Net Sales 263,924 230,765 14.4 254,478 3.7
EBITDA 56,210 47,937 17.3 50,944 10.3
Margin (%) 21.3 20.8 52 bps 20.0 128 bps
PAT (Excl. Ex Items ) 39,704 34,890 13.8 37,228 6.7
Note: Revenue, EBITDA and PAT numbers are arrived by totaling corresponding numbers of all companies under our coverage in this
sector.
Asian Paints
Rating
Reduce
Price (Rs) 4,673
Target Price (Rs) 4,420
M/Cap (Rs bn) 448.2
Shares o/s (m) 95.9
Key Figures (Rs m)
Y/e March FY13 FY14E FY15E
Net Sales 109,707 126,129 148,831
EBITDA 17,319 21,077 24,810
Margin (%) 15.8 16.7 16.7
PAT 11,137 13,380 16,307
EPS (Rs) 116.1 139.5 170.0
Growth (%) 8.9 20.1 21.9
RoE (%) 36.0 35.6 35.6
PE (x) 40.2 33.5 27.5
P / BV (x) 13.2 10.9 8.9
EV / E (x) 25.4 20.6 17.2
Consol. sales are expected to grow 13%. Gross margins are expected to improve
120bps to 42.8% as Tio2 prices are down 22% YoY. EBITDA is expected to grow 18% to
Rs5.2bn, as margins increase 76bps. PAT is expected to increase 13.8% to Rs3.3bn.
Domestic volume growth is estimated at 6% on a low base (-2% in Q1FY13). Impact of
5% increase in Tio2 prices by DuPont and rupee depreciation are the key factors to
watch out for in the coming quarters.
Quarterly Table (Rs m)
Y/e March
Q1
FY14E
Q1
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Q4
FY13
12M
FY14E
12M
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Net Sales 28,694 25,393 13.0 27,137 126,129 109,707 15.0
EBITDA 5,165 4,379 18.0 3,735 21,077 17,319 21.7
Margin (%) 18.0 17.2 76 bps 13.8 16.7 15.8 92 bps
Reported PAT 3,283 2,884 13.8 2,511 13,380 11,137 20.1
PAT (Excl. Ex Items ) 3,283 2,884 13.8 2,511 13,380 11,137 20.1
Operating Metrics
Decoratives Volume
Growth %
6.0 (2.0) NA
2.5 10.0 7.5 250 bps
Gross Margins % 42.8 41.6 120 bps 42.8 41.9 41.3 63 bps
Tio2 Price Index 220 288 (18.9) 223 NA NA NA
July 8, 2013 107

Apr-Jun 2013 Earnings Preview
Britannia Industries
Rating
BUY
Price (Rs) 669
Target Price (Rs) 812
M/Cap (Rs bn) 79.9
Shares o/s (m) 119.5
We expect Britannia to report a 13.5% increase in sales to Rs13.9bn, led by 6%
volume growth. Gross margins are expected to remain flat as fall in price of palm oil
is offset by an increase in Wheat flour prices YoY. EBITDA is expected to grow by
35% as margins expand 110bps to 7% due to gains from operating leverage. 80bps
increase in tax rate to 28.9% will curtail PAT at Rs589m, a growth of 35% YoY.
Key Figures (Rs m)
Y/e March FY13 FY14E FY15E
Net Sales 56,155 65,006 75,849
EBITDA 3,716 4,770 5,976
Margin (%) 6.6 7.3 7.9
PAT 2,339 2,950 3,846
EPS (Rs) 19.6 24.7 32.2
Growth (%) 15.8 26.1 30.4
RoE (%) 40.2 41.4 43.7
PE (x) 34.2 27.1 20.8
P / BV (x) 12.4 10.2 8.2
EV / E (x) 21.6 16.5 12.8
Quarterly Table (Rs m)
Y/e March
Q1
FY14E
Q1
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Q4
FY13
12M
FY14E
12M
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Net Sales 13,948 12,289 13.5 15,024 65,006 56,155 15.8
EBITDA 976 723 35.0 1,319 4,770 3,716 28.4
Margin (%) 7.0 5.9 111 bps 8.8 7.3 6.6 72 bps
Reported PAT 589 435 35.5 878 2,950 2,339 26.1
PAT (Excl. Ex Items ) 589 435 35.5 878 2,950 2,339 26.1
Colgate Palmolive
Rating
Reduce
Price (Rs) 1,411
Target Price (Rs) 1,112
M/Cap (Rs bn) 191.9
Shares o/s (m) 136.0
Key Figures (Rs m)
Y/e March FY13 FY14E FY15E
Net Sales 31,566 36,325 42,442
EBITDA 6,366 7,305 8,460
Margin (%) 20.2 20.1 19.9
PAT 4,830 5,335 6,051
EPS (Rs) 35.5 39.2 44.5
Growth (%) 8.2 10.5 13.4
RoE (%) 104.4 103.2 103.8
PE (x) 39.7 36.0 31.7
P / BV (x) 39.2 35.2 30.9
EV / E (x) 29.4 25.5 21.9
We estimate 18% sales growth led by 11% volume growth in toothpastes. Gross
Margins are expected to improve by 70bps due to soft raw material prices. However,
EBITDA margins are expected to decline by 90bps on account of aggressive
advertising and trade-related expenses ahead of Oral-B launch by P&G. We expect
10.6% increase in PAT at Rs1.3bn. We have cut our estimates by ~9% for FY14 and
FY15 due to higher ad-spends and tax rate.
Quarterly Table (Rs m)
Y/e March
Q1
FY14E
Q1
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Q4
FY13
12M
FY14E
12M
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Net Sales 8,881 7,561 17.5 8,315 36,325 31,566 15.1
EBITDA 1,824 1,625 12.3 1,687 7,305 6,366 14.8
Margin (%) 20.5 21.5 (94)bps 20.3 20.1 20.2 (6)bps
Reported PAT 1,298 1,174 10.6 1,232 5,335 4,830 10.5
PAT (Excl. Ex Items ) 1,298 1,174 10.6 1,232 5,335 4,830 10.5
Operating Metrics
Volume Growth % 11.0 11.0 0 bps 12.0 11.0 10.0 100 bps
Toothpaste market
Share (Vol)
55.6 54.5 110 bps 55.4 55.4 54.1 130 bps
Tax rate % 29.0 28.0 97 bps 27.3 26.5 25.1 142 bps
July 8, 2013 108

Apr-Jun 2013 Earnings Preview
GSK Consumer
Rating
Reduce
Price (Rs) 5,390
Target Price (Rs) 3,830
M/Cap (Rs bn) 226.7
Shares o/s (m) 42.1
We estimate a 15% growth in net sales led by a 7.5% volume growth. EBITDA margin
is expected at 16.5%, an increase of 130bps due to lower ad spends. EBITDA is
estimated to increase 25%. 120bps increase in tax rate will curtail PAT growth to
18.7% despite 15% increase in other income. Recent hike in milk prices is the key
factor to watch out for as milk is 40% of raw material costs.
Key Figures (Rs m)
Y/e Dec CY12 CY13E CY14E
Net Sales 32,024 36,826 42,805
EBITDA 5,883 7,072 8,388
Margin (%) 18.4 19.2 19.6
PAT 4,367 5,281 6,161
EPS (Rs) 103.8 125.6 146.5
Growth (%) 22.9 20.9 16.7
RoE (%) 34.9 35.4 34.8
PE (x) 51.9 42.9 36.8
P / BV (x) 16.7 14.0 11.8
EV / E (x) 38.5 32.0 26.9
Quarterly Table (Rs m)
Y/e Dec
Q2
CY13E
Q2
CY12
YoY gr.
(%)
Q1
CY13
H1
CY13E
H1
CY12
YoY gr.
(%)
Net Sales 8,392 7,297 15.0 9,399 17,790 15,428 15.3
EBITDA 1,385 1,107 25.1 1,708 3,092 2,724 13.5
Margin (%) 16.5 15.2 133 bps 18.2 17.4 17.7 (27)bps
Reported PAT 1,265 1,066 18.7 1,564 2,829 2,386 18.6
PAT (Excl. Ex Items ) 1,265 1,066 18.7 1,564 2,829 2,386 18.6
Hindustan Unilever
Rating
Under Review
Price (Rs) 610
Target Price (Rs)
NA
M/Cap (Rs bn) 1,317.9
Shares o/s (m) 2,161.5
Key Figures (Rs m)
Y/e March FY13 FY14E FY15E
Net Sales 258,102 288,487 328,701
EBITDA 40,037 46,054 54,223
Margin (%) 15.5 16.0 16.5
PAT 31,882 34,935 40,292
EPS (Rs) 14.7 16.2 18.6
Growth (%) 23.9 9.6 15.3
RoE (%) 103.1 111.5 101.6
PE (x) 41.4 37.7 32.7
P / BV (x) 49.3 36.7 30.4
EV / E (x) 32.0 27.4 23.0
HUVR is expected to report a 10.5% growth in sales to Rs70.5bn, led by 5% increase
in volumes. Gross margin is expected to expand by 120bps to 48.4% due to 35%
lower PFAD prices and benign prices of coffee. EBITDA margins are expected to
improve 50bps to 15.7% as higher ad spends and royalty will curtail gains. 43%
decline in other income and 170bps increase in tax rate will curtail PAT growth to 2%
YoY. Volume growth in discretionary segments in personal care and foods will
remain under pressure. Soap and detergent margins will taper off, given aggressive
discounts in soaps and elevated ad-promotions in detergents.
Quarterly Table (Rs m)
Y/e March
Q1
FY14E
Q1
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Q4
FY13
12M
FY14E
12M
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Net Sales 70,485 63,788 10.5 64,658 288,487 258,102 11.8
EBITDA 11,066 9,665 14.5 9,718 46,054 40,037 15.0
Margin (%) 15.7 15.2 55 bps 15.0 16.0 15.5 45 bps
Reported PAT 8,713 13,312 (34.5) 7,872 34,935 37,966 (8.0)
PAT (Excl. Ex Items ) 8,713 8,546 2.0 7,808 34,935 31,882 9.6
Operating Metrics
Volume Growth % 5.0 9.0 (400)bps 6.3 9.0 8.5 50 bps
PFAD Price Change % (35.0) 56.2 NA (27.0) NA NA NA
S&D Margins 12.0 12.2 (18)bps 11.3 13.1 12.7 38 bps
Personal care Sales
Gr %
14.0 16.7 (274)bps 16.7 22.1 9.1 1,298 bps
July 8, 2013 109

Apr-Jun 2013 Earnings Preview
ITC
Rating
BUY
Price (Rs) 347
Target Price (Rs) 350
M/Cap (Rs bn) 2,710.6
Shares o/s (m) 7,818.4
We estimate 15% increase in sales, 16.4% increase in EBITDA and 17.2% YoY growth
in PAT for Q1FY14. We estimate 1% cigarette volume growth and 14.7% EBIT growth
as higher prices following increase in VAT by various states and excise duty will affect
the volume growth. Paper and packaging business will gain from stabilisation of new
unit. We expect FMCG business to remain EBIT positive in Q1FY14, second
consecutive quarter of positive EBIT. Key factors to watch out for: Cigarette volume
growth; Sales growth and Margins in FMCG and Hotels business.
Key Figures (Rs m)
Y/e March FY13 FY14E FY15E
Net Sales 299,013 345,450 403,353
EBITDA 106,275 125,386 147,695
Margin (%) 35.5 36.3 36.6
PAT 74,184 85,312 103,444
EPS (Rs) 9.5 10.9 13.2
Growth (%) 20.4 15.0 21.3
RoE (%) 36.9 37.3 39.8
PE (x) 36.5 31.8 26.2
P / BV (x) 12.6 11.2 9.8
EV / E (x) 24.7 20.8 17.4
Quarterly Table (Rs m)
Y/e March
Q1
FY14E
Q1
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Q4
FY13
12M
FY14E
12M
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Net Sales 77,200 67,131 15.0 82,574 345,450 299,013 15.5
EBITDA 27,561 23,683 16.4 27,063 125,386 106,275 18.0
Margin (%) 35.7 35.3 42 bps 32.8 36.3 35.5 75 bps
Reported PAT 18,784 16,021 17.2 19,280 85,312 74,184 15.0
PAT (Excl. Ex Items ) 18,784 16,021 17.2 19,280 85,312 74,184 15.0
Operating Metrics
Cigarette Vol. Gr. (%) 1.0 1.5 (50)bps 2.5 0.9 2.0 (109)bps
Ci ga rette EBIT Gr. (%) 15.0 20.5 (549)bps 20.2 14.5 20.9 (640)bps
FMCG EBIT (Rs m) 37 (388) NA 119 89 (1,250) NA
Jubilant FoodWorks
Rating
Reduce
Price (Rs) 1,119
Target Price (Rs) 892
M/Cap (Rs bn) 72.8
Shares o/s (m) 65.1
Key Figures (Rs m)
Y/e March FY13 FY14E FY15E
Net Sales 14,076 19,122 25,713
EBITDA 2,444 3,156 4,177
Margin (%) 17.4 16.5 16.2
PAT 1,351 1,654 2,234
EPS (Rs) 20.8 25.4 34.3
Growth (%) 23.0 22.4 35.1
RoE (%) 36.8 32.2 32.1
PE (x) 53.9 44.0 32.6
P / BV (x) 16.8 12.3 9.1
EV / E (x) 29.3 22.6 16.7
Net sales are expected to grow by 30% to Rs4.08bn led by 8% SSS growth. Gross
margins are expected to remain flat at 73.5%. EBITDA margins are expected to
decline by 120bps to 17.0% on account of higher rent, staff cost on new stores and
Dunkin Donuts expansion. We estimate 21% YoY increase in EBITDA at Rs695m. PAT
growth is expected at 15% to Rs373m on account of 41% increase in depreciation
cost (Rs165m) and higher tax rate. Trend in SSS growth and store addition numbers
will be the key monitorable.
Quarterly Table (Rs m)
Y/e March
Q1
FY14E
Q1
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Q4
FY13
12M
FY14E
12M
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Net Sales 4,089 3,145 30.0 3,658 19,122 14,076 35.8
EBITDA 695 573 21.4 612 3,156 2,444 29.1
Margin (%) 17.0 18.2 (121)bps 16.7 16.5 17.4 (86)bps
Reported PAT 373 323 15.3 327 1,654 1,351 22.4
PAT (Excl. Ex Items ) 373 323 15.3 327 1,654 1,351 22.4
Operating Metrics
Same Store Sales
growth %
8.0 22.3 NA 7.7 15.0 17.0 (200)bps
Dominos Store
Addition
25.0 24.0 4.2 24.0 125.0 111.0 12.6
July 8, 2013 110

Apr-Jun 2013 Earnings Preview
Marico
Rating
Accumulate
Price (Rs) 210
Target Price (Rs) 232
M/Cap (Rs bn) 135.3
Shares o/s (m) 644.6
Key Figures (Rs m)
Y/e March FY13 FY14E FY15E
Net Sales 45,962 50,687 58,920
EBITDA 6,258 7,846 9,262
Margin (%) 13.6 15.5 15.7
PAT 3,959 5,117 6,289
EPS (Rs) 6.1 7.9 9.8
Growth (%) 19.1 29.2 22.9
RoE (%) 25.3 23.6 24.0
PE (x) 34.2 26.4 21.5
P / BV (x) 6.8 5.7 4.7
EV / E (x) 22.5 17.8 15.0
We estimate a 13% increase in sales of MRCO to Rs14.3bn. Volume growth is
expected to increase across brands as benefits of price reductions and sales
promotions get reflected. However, sales will be affected on account of LBT strike in
Maharashtra which accounts for 25% of parachute sales. EBITDA is expected to
improve by 20% to Rs2.2bn; EBITDA margins will expand 90 bps due to lower ad
spends and other expenditure. PAT is expected to grow 20% to Rs1.4bn. Volume
growth in Parachute and Saffola and sales growth in Deodorants and International
business are the key factors to watch out for.
Quarterly Table (Rs m)
Y/e March
Q1
FY14E
Q1
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Q4
FY13
12M
FY14E
12M
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Net Sales 14,319 12,672 13.0 9,973 50,687 45,962 10.3
EBITDA 2,220 1,847 20.2 1,189 7,846 6,258 25.4
Margin (%) 15.5 14.6 92 bps 11.9 15.5 13.6 186 bps
Reported PAT 1,487 1,238 20.1 839 5,117 3,959 29.2
PAT (Excl. Ex Items ) 1,487 1,238 20.1 839 5,117 3,959 29.2
Operating Metrics
Parachute Vol. Gr. (% 6.0 18.0 (1,200)bps 5.0 8.0 7.0 100 bps
Saffola Vol. Gr. (%) 7.0 12.0 (500)bps 5.0 12.0 7.0 500 bps
Hair Oil Vol. Gr. (%) 20.0 25.0 (500)bps 24.0 20.0 24.0 (400)bps
Domestic Vol. Gr. (%) 12.0 16.0 (400)bps 14.0 NA NA NA
Pidilite Industries
Rating
Accumulate
Price (Rs) 265
Target Price (Rs) 297
M/Cap (Rs bn) 135.9
Shares o/s (m) 512.6
Sales for PIDI is expected to grow by 16.5% to Rs10.6bn led by 10% volume growth.
Gross margins are expected to improve 220bps to 47% due to stable VAM prices
(~1000USD/Ton). EBITDA margins, however, are expected to improve 90bps due to
inflation in Power, Fuel and Labour cost and increase in advertising expenditure.
EBITDA is expected to grow by 21.5% to Rs2.3bn. Interest cost is estimated to decline
63% to Rs34m on account of payment of FCCB. PAT is expected to be at Rs1.7bn, up
28% YoY.
Key Figures (Rs m)
Y/e March FY13 FY14E FY15E
Net Sales 33,317 39,762 47,364
EBITDA 6,136 7,498 9,034
Margin (%) 18.4 18.9 19.1
PAT 4,548 5,511 6,811
EPS (Rs) 8.9 10.8 13.3
Growth (%) 29.7 21.2 23.6
RoE (%) 29.2 28.7 29.3
PE (x) 29.9 24.7 20.0
P / BV (x) 7.8 6.4 5.3
EV / E (x) 21.6 17.4 14.1
Quarterly Table (Rs m)
Y/e March
Q1
FY14E
Q1
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Q4
FY13
12M
FY14E
12M
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Net Sales 10,630 9,125 16.5 7,608 39,762 33,317 19.3
EBITDA 2,317 1,907 21.5 1,248 7,498 6,136 22.2
Margin (%) 21.8 20.9 90 bps 16.4 18.9 18.4 44 bps
Reported PAT 1,707 1,343 27.1 992 5,511 4,607 19.6
PAT (Excl. Ex Items ) 1,707 1,333 28.1 938 5,511 4,548 21.2
July 8, 2013 111

Apr-Jun 2013 Earnings Preview
Titan Industries
Rating
Accumulate
Price (Rs) 233
Target Price (Rs) 253
M/Cap (Rs bn) 207.2
Shares o/s (m) 887.9
Key Figures (Rs m)
Y/e March FY13 FY14E FY15E
Net Sales 101,127 118,762 142,584
EBITDA 10,106 12,242 15,509
Margin (%) 10.0 10.3 10.9
PAT 7,252 8,233 10,205
EPS (Rs) 8.2 9.3 11.5
Growth (%) 19.9 13.5 24.0
RoE (%) 42.6 36.9 35.9
PE (x) 28.6 25.2 20.3
P / BV (x) 10.6 8.3 6.5
EV / E (x) 19.3 17.3 13.5
We estimate a 23.7% increase in sales for TTAN to Rs27.3bn, mainly aided by 30%
growth in Jewellery volume as gold prices have declined by 15% from the peak.
EBITDA margins are expected to improve by 14bps to 11%, EBITDA is expected to
grow by 23.6% to Rs3bn, Jewellery sales margins are expected to improve 150bps
YoY, while margin on sales of watches is expected to come down by 50bps. PAT is
expected to grow 18% to Rs2.2bn.
Quarterly Table (Rs m)
Y/e March
Q1
FY14E
Q1
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Q4
FY13
12M
FY14E
12M
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Net Sales 27,286 22,366 22.0 26,132 118,762 101,127 17.4
EBITDA 3,001 2,429 23.6 2,665 12,242 10,106 21.1
Margin (%) 11.0 10.9 14 bps 10.2 10.3 10.0 31 bps
Reported PAT 2,206 1,870 18.0 1,850 8,233 7,252 13.5
PAT (Excl. Ex Items ) 2,206 1,870 18.0 1,850 8,233 7,252 13.5
Operating Metrics
Watch Sales Gr. (%) 7.5 14.4 (686)bps 1.5 17.5 11.7 577 bps
Watch Marg. (%) 13.5 14.0 (48)bps 10.9 13.6 13.0 60 bps
Jewelry Sales Gr. (%) 24.0 7.8 1,620 bps 16.3 15.4 16.5 (103)bps
Jewelry Marg. (%) 11.7 10.2 153 bps 11.9 10.5 10.0 49 bps
Gold Price Chng. (%) (7.0) 32.3 NA 8.0 (8.0) 9.7 NA
Watch EBIT Gr. (%) (2.0) 4.8 (682)bps (14.6) NA (6.9) NA
Jewellery EBIT Gr. (% 41.3 8.7 3,267 bps 36.5 NA 27.7 NA
July 8, 2013 112

Apr-Jun 2013 Earnings Preview
Shashi Bhusan
shashibhusan@plindia.com
+91-22-6632 2300
Pratik Shah
pratikshah@plindia.com
+91-22-6632 2256
Top picks
Infosys
Wipro
MindTree
Information Technology
The demand environment for Indian IT Services companies continues to be stable
with no material change in the outlook. We expect divergent commentaries on
overall demand environment due to client-specific issues. Unlikely Q4FY13 (JFM-13)
quarter, we are not expecting too many negative surprises in the results. Despite
deal closures, the project ramp-ups continue to be slow. The sales cycle continues to
remain long. The results from tech majors like Oracle, Accenture and Red Hat has
been little tepid, nevertheless backlogs and bookings are encouraging. The
commentary will continue to be positive for the US, with some improvement in
Europe. The pricing environment gets better, with no pressure on pricing.
Infosys – Guidance of 6‐10% USD term revenue growth likely to be retained for
FY14: The commentary from Infosys’ management likely to site caution on the
demand environment. We expect the management to retain its FY14 USD revenue
growth guidance of 6-10%. We are not expecting any change in the managements’
commentary. However, our analysis indicates improvement in deal pipeline for
Infosys. The cross-currency headwind is likely to be absorbed.
Currency–Cross currency negative impact by 60‐100bps, translation loss to erode
bottom‐line: Euro/GBP/AUD depreciated against USD by 1.1%/1%/4.7% and is likely
to have a negative impact by ~60-100bps in USD terms revenue. Rupee depreciated
in the quarter against USD, EUR and GBP; hence, will have a positive impact on the
operating margin (tailwind of 60-150bps). Moreover, the quarter end rate for JFM-13
quarter was Rs54.17/$ against AMJ-13 quarter end rate of Rs59.39/$ will have
tailwind at the bottom-line due to revaluation of financial assets. Few companies
might have thick hedges at Rs55-57/$; hence, will have some losses due to rupee
depreciation.
What to look for? 1) Commentary on IT budgets 2) Pricing pressure v/s pricing
discipline 3) Key verticals/Geography growth/de-growth expectation 4)
Discretionary/Non-Discretionary spending 5) Any delay in project ramp-ups 6)
Demand environment US/Europe/Continental Europe.
Tier‐2 IT companies – Performance likely to be in narrow range: We expect Tier-1
companies to deliver their 0.5-3.5% volume growth, with stable realization, whereas,
we expect mid and small Tier Indian IT companies to report 0-4% growth.
Infosys, Wipro, and MindTree – our top pick in the sector: We expect Infosys to give
in-line result and we see a room of positive surprise as expectation is running low.
Wipro is likely to show another improvement on QoQ performance. Moreover, we
expect Wipro to guide for 1-4% QoQ growth in Q2FY14. MindTree is our preferred
pick in Tier-2 as we expect momentum to get stronger in CY13 with stickiness in
margins.
July 8, 2013 113

Apr-Jun 2013 Earnings Preview
Currency – favourable movement for USD‐INR YoY basis...
…and QoQ – but negative impact due to cross‐currency movement
USD-INR GBP-INR EUR-INR
EUR-USD
GBP-USD
USD-INR GBP-INR EUR-INR
EUR-USD
GBP-USD
110
112
108
100
104
100
90
96
Jun-12
Jul-12
Aug-12
Sep-12
Oct-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Source: Bloomberg, Company Data, PL Research
Source: Bloomberg, Company Data, PL Research
Guidance Analysis
GUIDANCE GIVEN BY THE COMPANY OUR ESTIMATES ACTUALS
Q4FY13 FY2013 Q4FY13 FY2013 Q3FY13 FY2012
Infosys Technologies
Revenue (Rs m) n/a n/a 425,814 441,883 109,438 464,005 104,540 403,520
EPS (Rs) n/a n/a n/a n/a 41.6 179.9 41.9 164.9
Revenue (US$ m) n/a n/a 7,842 8,138 1,961 8,286 1,938 7,398
Wipro
Revenue (US$ m) 1,575 1,610 n/a n/a 1,587 6,624 1,585 6,218
Hexaware Technologies*
Revenue (US$ m) 94 96 n/a n/a 95.4 397 94 364
Source: Company Data, PL Research
* Y/e Dec
Stock Performance
Absolute
Relative to Sensex
1M 3M 6M 12M 1M 3M 6M 12M
CMC 2.8 (10.2) 1.9 50.3 3.3 (15.0) 4.0 40.0
eClerx Services 8.8 17.9 7.5 11.1 9.3 13.1 9.6 0.8
Geometric (2.2) 6.9 (6.0) 35.5 (1.7) 2.1 (3.8) 25.2
HCL Technologies 10.0 9.9 29.0 66.9 10.6 5.0 31.1 56.7
Hexaware Technologies 11.0 0.9 5.2 (22.4) 11.5 (3.9) 7.3 (32.7)
Infosys 0.9 (12.8) 5.3 1.0 1.4 (17.7) 7.4 (9.3)
KPIT Cummins Infosystems 3.8 25.5 12.0 0.6 4.3 20.7 14.1 (9.7)
MindTree 2.5 (2.7) 21.4 28.5 3.1 (7.5) 23.5 18.2
Mphasis (14.9) 0.7 (5.2) (1.4) (14.3) (4.1) (3.1) (11.7)
NIIT Technologies 0.1 (7.3) 1.2 (8.0) 0.7 (12.2) 3.3 (18.3)
Persistent Systems (5.5) (7.1) (5.9) 29.6 (4.9) (11.9) (3.8) 19.3
Polaris Financial Technology (14.1) (5.1) (3.5) (11.8) (13.5) (9.9) (1.3) (22.1)
Tata Consultancy Services (0.8) 1.7 15.9 20.7 (0.3) (3.1) 18.0 10.5
Tech Mahindra 11.6 6.3 12.9 44.9 12.1 1.5 15.0 34.6
Wipro 6.2 (11.2) 0.1 1.6 6.7 (16.0) 2.2 (8.7)
Source: Bloomberg, PL Research
July 8, 2013 114

Apr-Jun 2013 Earnings Preview
Summary Financials ‐ Quarterly (Rs m)
CMC
eCl erx Services
Geometric
HCL Technologies
Hexaware
Technologies
Infosys
KPIT Cummi ns
Infosystems
MindTree
Mphasis
NIIT Technologies
Source: Company Data, PL Research
Q1FY14E Q1FY13 QoQ gr. (%) Q4FY13 YoY gr. (%) 12MFY14E 12MFY13 YoY gr. (%)
Sales 5,449 5,240 4.0 4,523 20.5 23,107 19,279 19.9
EBITDA 872 818 6.6 752 15.9 3,891 3,168 22.8
Margins (%) 16.0 15.6 39 bps 16.6 (64)bps 16.8 16.4 41 bps
PAT 675 613 10.0 584 15.5 3,022 2,302 31.3
Sales 1,865 1,743 7.0 1,537 21.4 7,598 6,605 15.0
EBITDA 718 687 4.6 612 17.4 2,801 2,568 9.1
Margins (%) 38.5 39.4 (88)bps 39.8 (128)bps 36.9 38.9 (201)bps
PAT 565 482 17.2 493 14.5 2,078 1,716 21.1
Sales 2,606 2,471 5.5 2,608 (0.1) 11,143 10,204 9.2
EBITDA 495 334 48.2 527 (6.0) 2,149 1,951 10.1
Margins (%) 19.0 13.5 548 bps 20.2 (120)bps 19.3 19.1 16 bps
PAT 215 111 93.4 207 3.9 959 687 39.5
Sales 68,386 64,246 6.4 59,191 15.5 256,280 210,312 21.9
EBITDA 15,419 14,392 7.1 13,009 18.5 57,487 40,251 42.8
Margins (%) 22.5 22.4 15 bps 22.0 57 bps 22.4 19.1 329 bps
PAT 10,805 10,398 3.9 8,541 26.5 39,465 25,260 56.2
Sales 5,324 5,077 4.9 5,001 6.5 10,401 9,384 10.8
EBITDA 1,065 979 8.8 1,147 (7.2) 2,044 2,129 (4.0)
Margins (%) 20.0 19.3 72 bps 22.9 (294)bps 19.7 22.7 (304)bps
PAT 875 793 10.4 890 (1.7) 1,668 1,774 (6.0)
Sales 109,438 104,540 4.7 96,160 13.8 464,005 403,520 15.0
EBITDA 28,454 27,700 2.7 29,460 (3.4) 126,355 115,580 9.3
Margins (%) 26.0 26.5 (50)bps 30.6 (464)bps 27.2 28.6 (141)bps
PAT 23,775 23,940 (0.7) 22,890 3.9 102,762 94,210 9.1
Sales 6,078 5,699 6.7 5,383 12.9 25,358 22,386 13.3
EBITDA 1,033 1,013 2.0 806 28.1 3,923 3,641 7.7
Margins (%) 17.0 17.8 (77)bps 15.0 202 bps 15.5 16.3 (80)bps
PAT 644 512 25.9 513 25.7 2,511 1,990 26.2
Sales 6,518 6,124 6.4 5,630 15.8 26,584 23,618 12.6
EBITDA 1,173 1,163 0.9 1,174 (0.1) 5,484 4,864 12.8
Margins (%) 18.0 19.0 (99)bps 20.9 (285)bps 20.6 20.6 4bps
PAT 1,066 789 35.1 890 19.7 3,889 3,393 14.6
Sales 14,583 14,227 2.5 14,053 3.8 41,614 41,510 0.2
EBITDA 2,760 2,591 6.5 3,177 (13.1) 7,890 8,809 (10.4)
Margins (%) 18.9 18.2 72 bps 22.6 (368)bps 19.0 21.2 (226)bps
PAT 1,861 1,765 5.4 2,087 (10.8) 5,470 5,829 (6.2)
Sales 5,453 5,372 1.5 4,696 16.1 23,171 20,213 14.6
EBITDA 812 884 (8.1) 751 8.2 3,664 3,296 11.1
Margins (%) 14.9 16.5 (156)bps 16.0 (109)bps 15.8 16.3 (50)bps
PAT 605 565 7.1 576 5.1 2,459 2,133 15.3
July 8, 2013 115

Apr-Jun 2013 Earnings Preview
Summary Financials ‐ Quarterly (Rs m)
Pers is tent Sys tems
Polaris Financial
Technology
Tata Consultancy
Services
Tech Mahindra
Wipro
Source: Company Data, PL Research
Q1FY14E Q1FY13 QoQ gr. (%) Q4FY13 YoY gr. (%) 12MFY14E 12MFY13 YoY gr. (%)
Sales 3,513 3,340 5.2 3,007 16.8 14,699 12,945 13.5
EBITDA 801 831 (3.6) 807 (0.7) 3,766 3,352 12.4
Margins (%) 22.8 24.9 (207)bps 26.8 (403)bps 25.6 25.9 (27)bps
PAT 483 519 (7.0) 416 16.1 2,180 1,876 16.2
Sales 5,856 5,547 5.6 5,816 0.7 24,030 23,083 4.1
EBITDA 1,025 929 10.3 1,105 (7.3) 4,386 4,242 3.4
Margins (%) 17.5 16.7 75 bps 19.0 (150)bps 18.3 18.4 (13)bps
PAT 507 438 15.6 609 (16.7) 2,232 1,941 15.0
Sales 174,704 164,301 6.3 148,687 17.5 726,608 629,895 15.4
EBITDA 50,175 46,599 7.7 43,328 15.8 212,353 180,872 17.4
Margins (%) 28.7 28.4 36 bps 29.1 (42)bps 29.2 28.7 51 bps
PAT 37,329 35,695 4.6 32,806 13.8 163,724 139,414 17.4
Sales 19,835 19,072 4.0 15,434 28.5 78,353 68,731 14.0
EBITDA 4,026 3,801 5.9 3,302 21.9 14,887 14,243 4.5
Margins (%) 20.3 19.9 37 bps 21.4 (109)bps 19.0 20.7 (172)bps
PAT 3,992 3,773 5.8 3,384 18.0 14,887 12,877 15.6
Sales 98,960 96,078 3.0 104,832 (5.6) 411,491 374,256 9.9
EBITDA 20,386 19,681 3.6 19,728 3.3 82,704 78,181 5.8
Margins (%) 20.6 20.5 12 bps 18.8 178 bps 20.1 20.9 (79)bps
PAT 17,681 17,373 1.8 15,802 11.9 65,765 61,684 6.6
Consolidated Sectoral Data
Key Figures (Rs m)
2013 2014E 2015E
Net Sales 1,945,403 2,202,998 2,464,477
Growth (%) 22.9 13.2 11.9
EBITDA 489,362 540,927 588,610
Margin (%) 25.2 24.6 23.9
PAT 374,886 418,997 459,580
Growth (%) 23.8 11.8 9.7
PE (x) 16.6 14.8 13.5
Quarterly Table (Rs m)
Apr‐Jun'13 Apr‐Jun'12 QoQ gr. (%) Jan‐Mar'13 YoY gr. (%)
Net Sales 528,568 503,077 5.1 476,558 10.9
EBITDA 129,215 122,402 5.6 119,684 8.0
Margin (%) 24.4 24.3 12 bps 25.1 (67)bps
PAT (Excl. Ex Items ) 101,077 97,766 3.4 90,687 11.5
Note: Revenue, EBITDA and PAT numbers are arrived by totaling corresponding numbers of all companies under our coverage in this
sector.
July 8, 2013 116

Apr-Jun 2013 Earnings Preview
CMC
Rating
Accumulate
Price (Rs) 1,303
Target Price (Rs) 1,430
M/Cap (Rs bn) 39.5
Shares o/s (m) 30.3
Key Figures (Rs m)
Y/e March FY13 FY14E FY15E
Net Sales 19,279 23,107 26,820
EBITDA 3,168 3,891 4,605
Margin (%) 16.4 16.8 17.2
PAT 2,302 3,022 3,450
EPS (Rs) 76.0 99.7 113.9
Growth (%) 51.7 31.3 14.2
RoE (%) 26.8 28.2 25.6
PE (x) 17.1 13.1 11.4
P / BV (x) 4.2 3.3 2.6
EV / E (x) 12.2 10.0 8.3
We expect revenue growth (in USD terms) of 0.8% QoQ. Higher subcontracting
expense and lower offshoring are likely to erode the currency gain at the margins.
Due to forex and asset translation loss, we expect PAT to grow by 10% QoQ. We
expect management guidance on the onset of offshoring, since onsite has gone up
~20 percentage point over the last eight quarters.
Quarterly Table (Rs m)
Y/e March
Q1
FY14E
Q4
FY13
QoQ gr.
(%)
Q1
FY13
12M
FY14E
12M
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Net Sales 5,449 5,240 4.0 4,523 23,107 19,279 19.9
EBITDA 872 818 6.6 752 3,891 3,168 22.8
Margin (%) 16.0 15.6 39 bps 16.6 16.8 16.4 41 bps
Reported PAT 675 613 10.0 584 3,022 2,302 31.3
PAT (Excl. Ex Items) 675 613 10.0 584 3,022 2,302 31.3
Operating Metrics
Revenue (US$ mn) 97.5 96.7 0.8 83.0 427.9 353.0 21.2
Rs/US$ 55.9 54.2 3.1 54.5 54.0 54.6 (1.1)
Gross Margin 38.0 45.8 (777)bps 37.6 37.7 37.7 2bps
Subcontracting Cost (as
% of Revenue)
35.0 29.6 535 bps
33.9 35.3 35.3 (1)bps
eClerx Services
Rating
Reduce
Price (Rs) 743
Target Price (Rs) 630
M/Cap (Rs bn) 21.6
Shares o/s (m) 29.1
Key Figures (Rs m)
Y/e March FY13 FY14E FY15E
Net Sales 6,605 7,598 8,581
EBITDA 2,568 2,801 3,029
Margin (%) 38.9 36.9 35.3
PAT 1,716 2,078 2,216
EPS (Rs) 59.1 71.5 76.3
Growth (%) 7.4 21.1 6.6
RoE (%) 44.5 43.3 37.9
PE (x) 12.6 10.4 9.7
P / BV (x) 5.0 4.1 3.4
EV / E (x) 7.5 6.5 5.7
We expect a strong volume growth of 4% QoQ for Q1FY14, resulting in USD term
growth of 3.5% QoQ. However, we expect realizations to stay flattish QoQ. We
anticipate margin decline due to the wage hike. Forex loss and revaluation of
financial asset would result in a decline in PAT.
Quarterly Table (Rs m)
Y/e March
Q1
FY14E
Q4
FY13
QoQ gr.
(%)
Q1
FY13
12M
FY14E
12M
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Net Sales 1,865 1,743 7.0 1,537 7,598 6,605 15.0
EBITDA 718 687 4.6 612 2,801 2,568 9.1
Margin (%) 38.5 39.4 (88)bps 39.8 36.9 38.9 (201)bps
Reported PAT 565 482 17.2 493 2,078 1,716 21.1
PAT (Excl. Ex Items) 565 482 17.2 493 2,078 1,716 21.1
Operating Metrics
Volume (persons month) 12,387 11,911 4.0 10,904 9,856 45,826 (78.5)
Utilization (%) 70.5 69.0 150 bps 68.0 75.0 74.0 100 bps
Re/$ Rate 55.8 54.0 3.4 54.7 54.0 54.4 (0.7)
Per. Exp. (as % of sales ) 45.0 45.2 (17)bps 42.4 46.8 44.7 206 bps
Revenue (US$ m) 33.4 32.3 3.5 28.1 140.7 121.5 15.8
July 8, 2013 117

Apr-Jun 2013 Earnings Preview
Geometric
Rating
Accumulate
Price (Rs) 105
Target Price (Rs) 135
M/Cap (Rs bn) 6.6
Shares o/s (m) 62.7
Key Figures (Rs m)
Y/e March FY13 FY14E FY15E
Net Sales 10,204 11,143 12,132
EBITDA 1,951 2,149 2,021
Margin (%) 19.1 19.3 16.7
PAT 687 959 990
EPS (Rs) 11.0 15.3 15.8
Growth (%) 16.2 39.5 3.2
RoE (%) 30.7 31.4 22.7
PE (x) 9.6 6.9 6.6
P / BV (x) 2.5 1.9 1.5
EV / E (x) 3.1 2.5 2.3
Geometric’s volumes and pricing (put together for Q1FY14) are expected to report a
growth of 2.5% QoQ. The company starts FY14 with implementation of new strategy
being implemented. We expect EBITDA margin to expand by 548bps due to nonacrual
accounting adjustment due to integration of 3Cap. Moreover, bottom-line
would grow by 93% due to forex and asset translation gain.
Quarterly Table (Rs m)
Y/e March
Q1
FY14E
Q4
FY13
QoQ gr.
(%)
Q1
FY13
12M
FY14E
12M
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Net Sales 2,606 2,471 5.5 2,608 11,143 10,204 9.2
EBITDA 495 334 48.2 527 2,149 1,951 10.1
Margin (%) 19.0 13.5 548 bps 20.2 19.3 19.1 16 bps
Reported PAT 215 111 93.4 207 959 687 39.5
PAT (Excl. Ex Items) 215 111 93.4 207 959 687 39.5
Operating Metrics
Volume (persons month) 3,854 3,760 2.5 3,817 16,190 14,991 8.0
Utilz (excl. Trainees) 90.0 90.9 (90)bps 88.6 89.0 88.0 100 bps
Revenue (US$ m) 46.7 45.8 2.0 47.8 202.6 187.6 8.0
SW Devp. (% of sales ) 64.5 66.3 (177)bps 60.3 63.7 62.5 125 bps
S&M (% of Sales) 16.5 20.2 (372)bps 19.5 17.0 18.4 (141)bps
HCL Technologies
Rating
Accumulate
Price (Rs) 819
Target Price (Rs) 790
M/Cap (Rs bn) 567.7
Shares o/s (m) 693.3
Key Figures (Rs m)
Y/e June FY13 FY14E FY15E
Net Sales 256,280 289,861 330,820
EBITDA 57,487 59,315 66,207
Margin (%) 22.4 20.5 20.0
PAT 39,465 41,702 46,446
EPS (Rs) 56.9 60.1 67.0
Growth (%) 56.2 5.7 11.4
RoE (%) 32.5 27.8 25.5
PE (x) 14.4 13.6 12.2
P / BV (x) 4.2 3.4 2.9
EV / E (x) 9.8 9.2 7.9
We expect HCL to report 3.9% QoQ volume growth for Q4FY13, whereas, pricing is
expected to be muted with 0.1% QoQ decline. We expect margin to remain largely
flat despite currency appreciation. We expect positive management commentary on
demand environment, strong outlook on growth and margin outlook for CY13. We
expect commentary on large project ramp-ups and on cash flow situation for CY13.
Quarterly Table (Rs m)
Y/e June
Q4
FY13E
Q3
FY13
QoQ gr.
(%)
Q4
FY12
12M
FY13E
12M
FY12
YoY gr.
(%)
Net Sales 68,386 64,246 6.4 59,191 256,280 210,312 21.9
EBITDA 15,419 14,392 7.1 13,009 57,487 40,251 42.8
Margin (%) 22.5 22.4 15 bps 22.0 22.4 19.1 329 bps
Reported PAT 10,805 10,398 3.9 8,541 39,465 25,260 56.2
PAT (Excl. Ex Items) 10,805 10,398 3.9 8,541 39,465 25,260 56.2
Operating Metrics
Volume (persons month) 129,950 125,072 3.9 121,101 523,646 465,877 12.4
Pricing (US$ / Hr) 35.5 35.6 (0.1) 35.8 25.2 36.1 (30.0)
Revenue (US$ m) 1,226 1,191 3.0 1,080 4,685 4,152 12.9
SW. Devp. (% of s ales) 68.1 64.0 404 bps 64.8 65.3 66.8 (152)bps
SG&A (% of sales ) 9.4 13.6 (418)bps 13.2 12.3 14.0 (177)bps
July 8, 2013 118

Apr-Jun 2013 Earnings Preview
Hexaware Technologies
Rating
Reduce
Price (Rs) 94
Target Price (Rs) 80
M/Cap (Rs bn) 27.8
Shares o/s (m) 296.5
Key Figures (Rs m)
Y/e Dec CY12 CY13E CY14E
Net Sales 19,482 21,052 23,557
EBITDA 4,074 3,650 3,980
Margin (%) 20.9 17.3 16.9
PAT 3,276 2,735 3,315
EPS (Rs) 11.0 9.2 11.2
Growth (%) 21.4 (16.5) 21.2
RoE (%) 29.5 21.7 23.6
PE (x) 8.5 10.1 8.4
P / BV (x) 2.3 2.1 1.9
EV / E (x) 6.3 7.0 6.2
We expect volume growth of 2% QoQ with flattish realization dip QoQ. However,
cross-currency would impact dollar revenue negative by 0.5%. We expect margins to
expand by 72bps due to currency depreciation and improved utilization, and asset
translation gain due to currency depreciation. We expect update on the large deal
pipelines and guidance for CY13, giving some early glimpse of the next calendar year.
Quarterly Table (Rs m)
Y/e Dec
Q2
CY13E
Q1
CY13
QoQ gr.
(%)
Q2
CY12
H1
CY13E
H1
CY12
YoY gr.
(%)
Net Sales 5,324 5,077 4.9 5,001 10,401 9,384 10.8
EBITDA 1,065 979 8.8 1,147 2,044 2,129 (4.0)
Margin (%) 20.0 19.3 72 bps 22.9 19.7 22.7 (304)bps
Reported PAT 875 793 10.4 890 1,668 1,774 (6.0)
PAT (Excl. Ex Items) 875 793 10.4 890 1,668 1,774 (6.0)
Operating Metrics
Volume (persons month) 8,109 7,950 2.0 8,043 16,060 15,969 0.6
Offshore Real. ($/hr) 23.4 23.4 0.0 22.9 47 45.8 2.2
Revenue (US$ m) 95.4 94.0 1.5 91.2 189 179.2 5.7
SW. Devp. (% of s ales) 65.0 62.3 272 bps 59.9 127 118.6 867 bps
SG&A (% of sales ) 15.0 18.4 (344)bps 17.2 33 36.0 (261)bps
Infosys
Rating
BUY
Price (Rs) 2,468
Target Price (Rs) 2,900
M/Cap (Rs bn) 1,411.8
Shares o/s (m) 572.0
Key Figures (Rs m)
Y/e March FY13 FY14E FY15E
Net Sales 403,520 464,005 515,046
EBITDA 115,580 126,355 137,152
Margin (%) 28.6 27.2 26.6
PAT 94,210 102,762 110,944
EPS (Rs) 164.7 179.7 194.0
Growth (%) 13.3 9.1 8.0
RoE (%) 25.7 23.8 22.0
PE (x) 15.0 13.7 12.7
P / BV (x) 3.5 3.0 2.6
EV / E (x) 10.3 9.1 8.0
We expect Infosys to report revenue growth of 4.7% in INR terms, with volume
growth of 2.6% QoQ for Q1FY14, along with realization erosion of 0.5% QoQ. We
expect cross-currency to have a negative impact of 0.9% QoQ. We expect the
margins to erode by 50bps for the quarter due to wage hike and project ramp-up,
and pricing decline. We expect FY14 USD revenue guidance to be retained at 6-10%
YoY. There is likelihood of some commentary on road-map for growth acceleration.
Quarterly Table (Rs m)
Y/e March
Q1
FY14E
Q4
FY13
QoQ gr.
(%)
Q1
FY13
12M
FY14E
12M
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Net Sales 109,438 104,540 4.7 96,160 464,005 403,520 15.0
EBITDA 28,454 27,700 2.7 29,460 126,355 115,580 9.3
Margin (%) 26.0 26.5 (50)bps 30.6 27.2 28.6 (141)bps
Reported PAT 23,775 23,940 (0.7) 22,890 102,762 94,210 9.1
PAT (Excl. Ex Items) 23,775 23,940 (0.7) 22,890 102,762 94,210 9.1
Operating Metrics
Volume (persons month) 329,910 321,550 2.6 290,454 1,385,265 1,236,844 12.0
Pricing (US$ / Hr) 34.1 34.2 (0.5) 34.3 34.0 34.0 0.0
Revenue (US$ m) 1,961 1,938 1.2 1,752 8,286 7,398 12.0
SW. Devp. (% of s ales) 61.7 62.1 (42)bps 57.8 61.3 59.9 146 bps
SG&A (% of sales ) 12.3 11.4 92 bps 11.6 11.5 11.5 (5)bps
July 8, 2013 119

Apr-Jun 2013 Earnings Preview
KPIT Cummins Infosystems
Rating
Accumulate
Price (Rs) 123
Target Price (Rs) 130
M/Cap (Rs bn) 22.5
Shares o/s (m) 183.5
Key Figures (Rs m)
Y/e March FY13 FY14E FY15E
Net Sales 22,386 25,358 28,371
EBITDA 3,641 3,923 3,967
Margin (%) 16.3 15.5 14.0
PAT 1,990 2,511 2,578
EPS (Rs) 10.8 13.7 14.0
Growth (%) 32.8 26.2 2.6
RoE (%) 25.0 25.4 21.4
PE (x) 11.3 9.0 8.7
P / BV (x) 2.6 2.0 1.7
EV / E (x) 5.9 5.3 4.8
We expect volume growth of 4.6% QoQ growth for KPIT; however, USD revenue
growth is at 3.3% due to cross-currency headwind. The growth is largely led by a
recovery in the Automotive and Energy & Utilities sector. EBITDA margins are likely
to erode by 77bps to 17% due to wage hike. We expect commentary on the current
status of ‘Revolvo’. We expect management commentary on FY14 guidance and top
client outlook.
Quarterly Table (Rs m)
Y/e March
Q1
FY14E
Q4
FY13
QoQ gr.
(%)
Q1
FY13
12M
FY14E
12M
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Net Sales 6,078 5,699 6.7 5,383 25,358 22,386 13.3
EBITDA 1,033 1,013 2.0 806 3,923 3,641 7.7
Margin (%) 17.0 17.8 (77)bps 15.0 15.5 16.3 (80)bps
Reported PAT 644 512 25.9 513 2,511 1,990 26.2
PAT (Excl. Ex Items) 644 512 25.9 513 2,511 1,990 26.2
Operating Metrics
Total Volume (in hours) 3,247 3,104 4.6 2,892 13,581 12,018 13.0
Offshore Utilization 75.0 74.1 1.2 74.1 76.5 0.0 #DIV/0!
Revenue (US$ m) 108.9 105.5 3.3 98.1 469.6 411.5 14.1
SW. Devp. (% of s ales) 52.5 50.3 215 bps 50.6 51.5 51.0 52 bps
SG&A (% of sales ) 14.0 31.9 (1,788)bps 34.4 13.6 32.8 (1,916)bps
Mphasis
Rating
Accumulate
Price (Rs) 378
Target Price (Rs) 460
M/Cap (Rs bn) 79.4
Shares o/s (m) 210.1
Key Figures (Rs m)
Y/e Oct FY12 FY13E FY14E
Net Sales 54,906 55,939 61,937
EBITDA 11,843 11,600 11,417
Margin (%) 21.6 20.7 18.4
PAT 7,922 8,091 9,083
EPS (Rs) 37.7 38.5 43.2
Growth (%) (0.1) 2.1 12.3
RoE (%) 19.1 17.5 18.0
PE (x) 10.0 9.8 8.7
P / BV (x) 1.8 1.6 1.5
EV / E (x) 6.4 6.6 6.2
We expect Mphasis to report a growth of 2.5% QoQ for the top-line in INR terms due
to currency depreication despite de-growth of 2% in HP portfolio and 4% growth in
direct channel. The company has 35% portfolio exposed to INR. Hence, it will have
minimal impact of currency depreciation; however, translation loss will impact
bottom-line. EBITDA margin is expected to improve by 72bps due to currency
depreciation and improved margin in Digital Risk.
Quarterly Table (Rs m)
Y/e Oct
Q3
FY13E
Q2
FY13
QoQ gr.
(%)
Q3
FY12
9M
FY13E
9M
FY12
YoY gr.
(%)
Net Sales 14,583 14,227 2.5 14,053 41,614 41,510 0.2
EBITDA 2,760 2,591 6.5 3,177 7,890 8,809 (10.4)
Margin (%) 18.9 18.2 72 bps 22.6 19.0 21.2 (226)bps
Reported PAT 1,861 1,765 5.4 2,087 5,470 5,829 (6.2)
PAT (Excl. Ex Items) 1,861 1,765 5.4 2,087 5,470 5,829 (6.2)
Operating Metrics
Application Serv 9,037 8,773 3.0 8,321 25714.08 24,804 3.7
BPO Serv. 2,082 2,074 0.4 2,257 5,711 6,430 (11.2)
ITO Serv. 3,464 3,379 2.5 3,475 10,188 10,113 0.7
SW. Devp. (% of s ales) 73.0 73.8 (78)bps 71.1 220.3 219.1 115 bps
SG&A (% of sales) 10.5 9.7 84 bps 9.3 29.2 26.9 231 bps
July 8, 2013 120

Apr-Jun 2013 Earnings Preview
MindTree
Rating
Accumulate
Price (Rs) 850
Target Price (Rs) 940
M/Cap (Rs bn) 35.3
Shares o/s (m) 41.5
Key Figures (Rs m)
Y/e March FY13 FY14E FY15E
Net Sales 23,618 26,584 29,527
EBITDA 4,864 5,484 5,935
Margin (%) 20.6 20.6 20.1
PAT 3,393 3,889 4,291
EPS (Rs) 81.8 93.7 103.4
Growth (%) 53.6 14.6 10.3
RoE (%) 29.9 26.0 22.8
PE (x) 10.4 9.1 8.2
P / BV (x) 2.7 2.1 1.7
EV / E (x) 7.0 5.7 4.8
We expect MindTree to report USD growth of 3% QoQ, led by a growth in volumes
by 3.5%. We anticipate margin erosion by 99bps due to visa cost and on-boarding of
fresher. We expect PES to be stable and IT services to lead the growth. Moreover, at
the bottom-line, we expect 35% QoQ growth due to forex and asset translation gain.
We expect positive commentary from the management.
Quarterly Table (Rs m)
Y/e March
Q1
FY14E
Q4
FY13
QoQ gr.
(%)
Q1
FY13
12M
FY14E
12M
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Net Sales 6,518 6,124 6.4 5,630 26,584 23,618 12.6
EBITDA 1,173 1,163 0.9 1,174 5,484 4,864 12.8
Margin (%) 18.0 19.0 (99)bps 20.9 20.6 20.6 4 bps
Reported PAT 1,066 789 35.1 890 3,889 3,393 14.6
PAT (Excl. Ex Items) 1,066 789 35.1 890 3,889 3,393 14.6
Operating Metrics
Volume (persons month) 22,789 22,018 3.5 21,176 95,241 85,803 11.0
Realization (US$ / Hr) 28.8 28.8 0.2 28.1 29.1 28.6 1.8
Revenue (US$ m) 116.4 113.0 3.0 105.5 492.3 435.7 13.0
SW. Devp. (% of s ales) 60.6 61.2 (55)bps 61.1 60.5 60.4 10 bps
SG&A (% of sales ) 21.4 19.9 154 bps 18.0 18.8 19.0 (13)bps
NIIT Technologies
Rating
BUY
Price (Rs) 261
Target Price (Rs) 360
M/Cap (Rs bn) 15.6
Shares o/s (m) 59.6
Key Figures (Rs m)
Y/e March FY13 FY14E FY15E
Net Sales 20,213 23,171 26,214
EBITDA 3,296 3,664 3,973
Margin (%) 16.3 15.8 15.2
PAT 2,133 2,459 2,807
EPS (Rs) 35.8 41.2 47.1
Growth (%) 8.2 15.3 14.2
RoE (%) 21.3 21.1 20.8
PE (x) 7.3 6.3 5.5
P / BV (x) 1.4 1.2 1.1
EV / E (x) 4.0 3.5 3.0
We expect NIIT Tech to report rupee term revenue growth of 1.5% QoQ, led by a
growth in volumes by 1%. The quarter is likely to witness margin decline of 156bps
to 14.9% due to wage hike, and GIS revenue weakness. We expect order book to
show strong growth in the quarter. Moreover, we expect a steady performance in
manufacturing and TTSL vertical. The company is likely to show growth at bottomline
as forex and asset translation gain will push the bottom-line growth higher.
Quarterly Table (Rs m)
Y/e March
Q1
FY14E
Q4
FY13
QoQ gr.
(%)
Q1
FY13
12M
FY14E
12M
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Net Sales 5,453 5,372 1.5 4,696 23,171 20,213 14.6
EBITDA 812 884 (8.1) 751 3,664 3,296 11.1
Margin (%) 14.9 16.5 (156)bps 16.0 15.8 16.3 (50)bps
Reported PAT 605 565 7.1 576 2,459 2,133 15.3
PAT (Excl. Ex Items) 605 565 7.1 576 2,459 2,133 15.3
Operating Metrics
Volume (persons month) 3,244 3,212 1.0 2,958 15,181 13,375 13.5
Utilization 0.8 0.8 (0.3) 0.8 79.0 78.2 1.0
SW. Devp. (% of s ales) 67.0 65.6 136 bps 64.9 65.9 65.1 79 bps
SG&A (% of sales ) 18.1 17.9 1.1 19.1 18.3 18.6 (1.6)
July 8, 2013 121

Apr-Jun 2013 Earnings Preview
Polaris Financial Technology
Rating
Accumulate
Price (Rs) 112
Target Price (Rs) 135
M/Cap (Rs bn) 11.1
Shares o/s (m) 99.4
Key Figures (Rs m)
Y/e March FY13 FY14E FY15E
Net Sales 23,083 24,030 25,905
EBITDA 4,242 4,386 4,656
Margin (%) 18.4 18.3 18.0
PAT 1,941 2,232 2,503
EPS (Rs) 19.5 22.4 25.2
Growth (%) (11.9) 15.0 12.1
RoE (%) 15.2 15.6 15.5
PE (x) 5.7 5.0 4.4
P / BV (x) 0.8 0.7 0.6
EV / E (x) 2.0 1.7 1.3
We expect Sourcing and Intellect to grow at 3% and 0.8% QoQ, respectively, whereas
BPO revenue is likely to grow by 0.8% QoQ. We expect margins to expand by 75bps
due to currency depreciation. Also, we expect muted commentary on the deal
pipeline for Intellect and cautious tone on the overall demand environment due to
high exposure to BFSI vertical.
Quarterly Table (Rs m)
Y/e March
Q1
FY14E
Q4
FY13
QoQ gr.
(%)
Q1
FY13
12M
FY14E
12M
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Net Sales 5,856 5,547 5.6 5,816 24,030 23,083 4.1
EBITDA 1,025 929 10.3 1,105 4,386 4,242 3.4
Margin (%) 17.5 16.7 75 bps 19.0 18.3 18.4 (13)bps
Reported PAT 507 438 15.6 609 2,232 1,941 15.0
PAT (Excl. Ex Items) 507 438 15.6 609 2,232 1,941 15.0
Operating Metrics
FT Sourcing (US$ m) 82 80 3.0 82 350 324 8.0
FT Intellect (US$ m) 21.8 21.6 0.8 24.5 89.5 97.3 (8.0)
BPO (US$ m) 1.2 1.2 0.8 0.9 5.7 4.4 29.7
SW. Devp. (% of s ales) 64.0 64.4 (38)bps 62.9 63.6 63.1 46 bps
SG&A (% of sales ) 12.0 12.0 4bps 12.2 12.0 12.1 (8)bps
Persistent Systems
Rating
Accumulate
Price (Rs) 497
Target Price (Rs) 550
M/Cap (Rs bn) 19.9
Shares o/s (m) 40.0
Key Figures (Rs m)
Y/e March FY13 FY14E FY15E
Net Sales 12,945 14,699 16,976
EBITDA 3,352 3,766 4,113
Margin (%) 25.9 25.6 24.2
PAT 1,876 2,180 2,434
EPS (Rs) 46.9 54.5 60.8
Growth (%) 32.3 16.2 11.6
RoE (%) 20.2 19.7 18.9
PE (x) 10.6 9.1 8.2
P / BV (x) 2.0 1.7 1.4
EV / E (x) 6.0 4.9 4.3
We expect Persistent Systems to grow by 1% QoQ in USD terms. We expect margin
decline of 207bps due to visa cost and wage hike. We expect positive commentary
on deal pipeline for organic and inorganic IP-led growth. The management
commentary would hint towards an improving demand scenario in H2FY14.
Quarterly Table (Rs m)
Y/e March
Q1
FY14E
Q4
FY13
QoQ gr.
(%)
Q1
FY13
12M
FY14E
12M
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Net Sales 3,513 3,340 5.2 3,007 14,699 12,945 13.5
EBITDA 801 831 (3.6) 807 3,766 3,352 12.4
Margin (%) 22.8 24.9 (207)bps 26.8 25.6 25.9 (27)bps
Reported PAT 483 519 (7.0) 416 2,180 1,876 16.2
PAT (Excl. Ex Items) 483 519 (7.0) 416 2,180 1,876 16.2
Operating Metrics
Volume (persons month) 10,458 10,303 1.5 10,112 46,529 41,176 13.0
Realization (US$ /
person month)
3,750 3,769 (0.5) 3,345 3,734 3,686 1.3
Revenue (US$ m) 62.7 62.1 1.0 54.9 272.2 237.8 14.5
SW. Devp. (% of s ales) 72.0 71.3 74 bps 66.9 69.0 68.7 38 bps
SG&A (% of sales) 5.2 3.9 133 bps 6.3 5.3 5.4 (11)bps
July 8, 2013 122

Apr-Jun 2013 Earnings Preview
Tata Consultancy Services
Rating
Accumulate
Price (Rs) 1,507
Target Price (Rs) 1,550
M/Cap (Rs bn) 2,948.8
Shares o/s (m) 1,957.2
Key Figures (Rs m)
Y/e March FY13 FY14E FY15E
Net Sales 629,895 726,608 820,663
EBITDA 180,872 212,353 232,221
Margin (%) 28.7 29.2 28.3
PAT 139,414 163,724 181,547
EPS (Rs) 71.2 83.7 92.8
Growth (%) 29.7 17.4 10.9
RoE (%) 37.9 35.5 31.9
PE (x) 21.2 18.0 16.2
P / BV (x) 7.2 5.8 4.7
EV / E (x) 15.9 13.3 11.9
We expect TCS to report 3.7% QoQ volume growth aided by retail, energy & utility
and Manufacturing sector, with no improvement in the pricing front. EBITDA margin
is expected to expanded by 36bps due to wage hike. We expect cross-currency to
have negative impact of 0.7% on growth. The management is likely to stay with its
positive commentary on the demand outlook.
Quarterly Table (Rs m)
Y/e March
Q1
FY14E
Q4
FY13
QoQ gr.
(%)
Q1
FY13
12M
FY14E
12M
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Net Sales 174,704 164,301 6.3 148,687 726,608 629,895 15.4
EBITDA 50,175 46,599 7.7 43,328 212,353 180,872 17.4
Margin (%) 28.7 28.4 36 bps 29.1 29.2 28.7 51 bps
Reported PAT 37,329 35,695 4.6 32,806 163,724 139,414 17.4
PAT (Excl. Ex Items) 37,329 35,695 4.6 32,806 163,724 139,414 17.4
Operating Metrics
Volume (persons month) 629,390 606,934 3.7 547,096 2,558,737 2,244,506 14.0
Pricing (US$ / Hr) 33.5 33.5 0.0 33.4 34.5 33.8 2.0
Revenue (US$ m) 3,131 3,040 3.0 2,728 13,456 11,568 16.3
SW. Devp. (% of s ales) 54.8 54.8 (5)bps 55.3 54.8 53.9 91 bps
SG&A (% of Sales ) 17.0 17.3 (31)bps 16.0 16.0 17.4 (142)bps
Tech Mahindra
Rating
Accumulate
Price (Rs) 1,046
Target Price (Rs) 1,100
M/Cap (Rs bn) 133.3
Shares o/s (m) 127.5
Key Figures (Rs m)
Y/e March FY13 FY14E FY15E
Net Sales 68,731 78,353 85,405
EBITDA 14,243 14,887 15,800
Margin (%) 20.7 19.0 18.5
PAT 12,877 14,887 16,312
EPS (Rs) 101.0 116.7 127.9
Growth (%) 17.6 15.6 9.6
RoE (%) 29.2 28.7 26.8
PE (x) 10.4 9.0 8.2
P / BV (x) 2.8 2.4 2.0
EV / E (x) 9.6 8.9 7.9
Tech Mahindra will not have any inorganic contribution in the quarter. We expect no
major ramp-down on BT (-0.3% QoQ decline) and non-BT account growing at 0.9%
QoQ, hence, resulting in a growth in organic revenue. The margin is likely to
expanded by 37bps for the quarter due to currency depreciation. We expect strong
quarter for Satyam to have a bearing on the bottom-line. We expect a road-map for
integration with Satyam.
Quarterly Table (Rs m)
Y/e March
Q1
FY14E
Q4
FY13
QoQ gr.
(%)
Q1
FY13
12M
FY14E
12M
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Net Sales 19,835 19,072 4.0 15,434 78,353 68,731 14.0
EBITDA 4,026 3,801 5.9 3,302 14,887 14,243 4.5
Margin (%) 20.3 19.9 37 bps 21.4 19.0 20.7 (172)bps
Reported PAT 3,992 3,773 5.8 3,384 14,887 12,877 15.6
PAT (Excl. Ex Items) 3,992 3,773 5.8 3,384 14,887 12,877 15.6
Operating Metrics
Rev from BT 4,911 4,768 3.0 5,556 19,857 20,902 (5.0)
Rev. from Non BT Clients 14,924 14,304 4.3 9,878 58,496 47,829 22.3
Revenue (US$ mn) 355 353 0.6 281 1,425 1,263 12.8
SW. Devp. (% of s ales) 64.2 63.5 66 bps 62.7 64.2 63.1 108 bps
SG&A (% of sales ) 15.5 16.5 (103)bps 15.9 16.8 16.2 65 bps
July 8, 2013 123

Apr-Jun 2013 Earnings Preview
Wipro
Rating
BUY
Price (Rs) 356
Target Price (Rs) 410
M/Cap (Rs bn) 875.6
Shares o/s (m) 2,463.0
Key Figures (Rs m)
Y/e March FY13 FY14E FY15E
Net Sales 374,256 411,491 452,524
EBITDA 78,181 82,704 89,536
Margin (%) 20.9 20.1 19.8
PAT 61,684 65,765 70,663
EPS (Rs) 25.0 26.7 28.7
Growth (%) 17.1 6.6 7.4
RoE (%) 21.7 21.5 20.1
PE (x) 14.2 13.3 12.4
P / BV (x) 3.1 2.7 2.3
EV / E (x) 10.1 9.3 8.1
We expect Wipro to report IT Services revenue growth of 0.1% in USD terms to
US$1,587m, in line with their guidance of -0.6% to 1.6% QoQ growth. We expect
volumes to grow by 0.7% sequentially, with realization decline of 0.1% QoQ. EBITDA
margin is expected to expand by 12bps despite currency depreciation. We are
expecting the management commentary to be more positive. We expect Wipro to
guide for 2-4% QoQ growth for Q2FY14.
Quarterly Table (Rs m)
Y/e March
Q1
FY14E
Q4
FY13
QoQ gr.
(%)
Q1
FY13
12M
FY14E
12M
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Net Sales 98,960 96,078 3.0 104,832 411,491 374,256 9.9
EBITDA 20,386 19,681 3.6 19,728 82,704 78,181 5.8
Margin (%) 20.6 20.5 12 bps 18.8 20.1 20.9 (79)bps
Reported PAT 17,681 17,373 1.8 15,802 65,765 61,684 6.6
PAT (Excl. Ex Items) 17,681 17,373 1.8 15,802 65,765 61,684 6.6
Operating Metrics
Volume (persons month) 176,107 174,883 0.7 171,851 744,785 689,616 8.0
Pricing (US$ / Hr) 38.8 38.8 (0.1) 38.0 39.2 38.8 1.0
Currency (USDINR) 56 54 2.9 55 54 55 (0.9)
SW. Devp. (% of s ales) 69.5 69.7 (24)bps 69.5 70.2 69.6 51 bps
SG&A (% of Sales) 9.9 9.8 13 bps 11.7 9.7 9.5 28 bps
July 8, 2013 124

Apr-Jun 2013 Earnings Preview
Kamlesh Bagmar
kamleshbagmar@plindia.com
+91-22-6632 2237
Mandar Dhavle
mandardhavle@plindia.com
+91-22-6632 2258
Top picks
Hindustan Zinc
Metals & Mining
World steel production grew 2.9% YoY at 268m tonnes in April-May 2013, solely on
the back of strong recovery in production from China. China’s steel production grew
8.9% at 132m tonnes. Contrary to this, production across the rest of the world fell by
2.4% YoY at 135m tonnes. Europe reported 20 th consecutive monthly decline in
production in May with an overall reduction of 5.3% in Apr-May 2013 at 28.7m
tonnes. Japan and Korea (key exporting markets) reported fall of 2.7% and 7.7% in
production at 18.7m and 11m tonnes, respectively, indicating weak exports demand.
Movement in Crude Steel Production
60.0
China World steel World steel ex China
50.0
40.0
30.0
20.0
10.0
0.0
-10.0
-20.0
May-10
Jul-10
Sep-10
Nov-10
Jan-11
Mar-11
May-11
Jul-11
Sep-11
Nov-11
Jan-12
Mar-12
May-12
Jul-12
Sep-12
Nov-12
Jan-13
Mar-13
May-13
(%)
Source: World Steel, PL Research
Capacity utilisation remained weak on the back of de-stocking activity. Utilisation
levels fell ~80bps (YoY) at 79.6% in the period.
Movement in World Steel capacity utilisation
85.0
80.0
75.0
(%)
70.0
65.0
60.0
55.0
50.0
Nov-09
Jan-10
Mar-10
May-10
Jul-10
Sep-10
Nov-10
Jan-11
Mar-11
May-11
Jul-11
Sep-11
Nov-11
Jan-12
Mar-12
May-12
Jul-12
Sep-12
Nov-12
Jan-13
Mar-13
May-13
Source: World Steel, PL Research
July 8, 2013 125

Apr-Jun 2013 Earnings Preview
US HRC spot prices fell 5.9% QoQ or US$36/short tonne at US$587 in the quarter,
primarily due to weak global prices. Domestic demand remained strong on the back
of strong demand from the auto and housing sector.
North America HRC Price
690
670
(US$ / short tonne)
650
630
610
590
570
550
Jun-12
Jul-12
Aug-12
Sep-12
Oct-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Source: Bloomberg, PL Research
European average HRC prices fell 8% QoQ or US$52/t at US$604 on account of weak
exports demand and depressed global prices.
Europe HRC Price
710
690
(US$ / tonne)
670
650
630
610
590
570
550
Jun-12
Jul-12
Aug-12
Sep-12
Oct-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Source: Bloomberg, PL Research
July 8, 2013 126

Apr-Jun 2013 Earnings Preview
Chinese steel prices (including 17% VAT) fell 10% QoQ or US$66/t at US$594 on
account of weak demand, policy tightening by Govt to cool down the property rates
and severe de-stocking.
China HRC price
700
(US$ / tonne)
650
600
550
500
450
Jun-12
Jul-12
Aug-12
Sep-12
Oct-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Source: Bloomberg, PL Research
In tandem with the fall in steel prices, average for the spot iron ore prices (CIF China)
fell 15% QoQ or US$22/t at US$126 on account of weak Chinese demand and
increased ore supplies.
Indian origin Iron Ore (63% Fe) Export Prices (CIF) to China
160
150
(US$ / tonne)
140
130
120
110
100
90
80
Jun-12
Jul-12
Aug-12
Sep-12
Oct-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Source: Bloomberg, PL Research.
July 8, 2013 127

Apr-Jun 2013 Earnings Preview
Following the movement in iron ore, average for scrap prices fell 8% QoQ at US$352,
given the weak global steel prices and inventory de-stocking.
Rotterdam Scrap Prices
420
400
(US$ / short tonne)
380
360
340
320
300
Jun-12
Jul-12
Aug-12
Sep-12
Oct-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Source: Bloomberg, PL Research
Spreads on an average basis were negative during the quarter in China and Europe
on account of weak prices. On the contrary, USA was the only market which posted
positive spreads on the back of better prices.
Steel prices and cost of production (Blast furnace producers) movement
(US$ / Tonne)
140
115
90
65
40
15
-10
-35
-60
-85
-110
-135
-160
US China Europe
Jun-12
Jul-12
Aug-12
Sep-12
Oct-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Source: Bloomberg, PL Research
Economic data and commentary of Central banks and top companies suggest weak
outlook on fixed asset investment and consumer spending across the markets. This,
coupled with over-capacity and low margin intensity of Chinese steel mills, paint a
subdued outlook on steel sector’s earnings. Despite steep fall in stock prices,
valuations remain un-remunerative, given the weak earnings outlook and
overshooting leverage.
We like Hindustan Zinc on the back of attractive valuations and likely dilution of
Government stake at higher levels. We also like Coal India, given its attractive
valuations post the steep correction in the stock and strong operational
performance.
July 8, 2013 128

Apr-Jun 2013 Earnings Preview
Stock Performance
Absolute
Relative to Sensex
1M 3M 6M 12M 1M 3M 6M 12M
Coal India (9.3) (6.1) (19.5) (17.5) (8.8) (10.9) (17.4) (27.8)
Hindustan Zinc (11.5) (12.7) (28.2) (18.7) (11.0) (17.5) (26.1) (29.0)
Jindal Steel & Power (20.6) (32.9) (51.3) (51.3) (20.0) (37.7) (49.2) (61.6)
JSW Steel (16.3) (10.1) (28.6) (15.7) (15.8) (14.9) (26.5) (25.9)
Steel Authority of India (14.3) (22.4) (50.8) (49.3) (13.8) (27.2) (48.7) (59.6)
Tata Steel (11.0) (15.0) (40.0) (42.0) (10.5) (19.8) (37.9) (52.3)
Sterlite industries (7.2) (5.8) (30.5) (23.2) (6.7) (10.6) (28.4) (33.5)
Source: Bloomberg, PL Research
Summary Financials ‐ Quarterly (Rs m)
Coal India
Hindustan Zinc
Jindal Steel &
Power
JSW Steel
Steel Authority of
India
Tata Steel
Sterlite industries
Source: Company Data, PL Research
Q1FY14E Q1FY13 YoY gr. (%) Q4FY13 QoQ gr. (%) 12MFY14E 12MFY13 YoY gr. (%)
Sales 165,900 165,006 0.5 199,046 (16.7) 733,090 683,027 7.3
EBITDA 33,366 48,146 (30.7) 61,191 (45.5) 186,172 187,061 (0.5)
Margins (%) 20.1 29.2 (907)bps 30.7 (1,063)bps 25.4 27.4 (199)bps
PAT 33,468 44,762 (25.2) 53,993 (38.0) 181,030 179,742 0.7
Sales 28,724 27,127 5.9 38,503 (25.4) 131,935 125,257 5.3
EBITDA 14,054 13,935 0.9 20,576 (31.7) 67,448 62,585 7.8
Margins (%) 48.9 51.4 (244)bps 53.4 (451)bps 51.1 50.0 116 bps
PAT 14,744 15,813 (6.8) 21,818 (32.4) 66,644 68,484 (2.7)
Sales 49,507 46,804 5.8 55,833 (11.3) 226,746 195,540 16.0
EBITDA 14,503 15,722 (7.8) 15,242 (4.8) 68,670 64,159 7.0
Margins (%) 29.3 33.6 (430)bps 27.3 200 bps 30.3 32.8 (253)bps
PAT 6,855 8,300 (17.4) 7,602 (9.8) 29,849 34,842 (14.3)
Sales 107,527 99,020 8.6 98,515 9.1 395,892 380,949 3.9
EBITDA 16,932 19,006 (10.9) 16,865 0.4 69,170 63,892 8.3
Margins (%) 15.7 19.2 (345)bps 17.1 (137)bps 17.5 16.8 70 bps
PAT 4,065 4,515 (10.0) 2,485 63.6 17,221 12,126 42.0
Sales 101,669 106,407 (4.5) 121,625 (16.4) 455,942 439,611 3.7
EBITDA 5,892 13,785 (57.3) 7,459 (21.0) 50,764 40,397 25.7
Margins (%) 5.8 13.0 (716)bps 6.1 (34)bps 11.1 9.2 194 bps
PAT 2,137 8,700 (75.4) 4,358 (51.0) 21,592 23,999 (10.0)
Sales 297,791 338,212 (12.0) 346,505 (14.1) 1,444,801 1,347,115 7.3
EBITDA 30,138 34,033 (11.4) 43,689 (31.0) 150,491 123,212 22.1
Margins (%) 10.1 10.1 6bps 12.6 (249)bps 10.4 9.1 127 bps
PAT (14) 5,979 (100.2) 8,843 (100.2) 28,623 3,323 761.5
Sales 67,526 105,914 (36.2) 126,092 (46.4) 482,341 449,219 7.4
EBITDA 20,617 22,512 (8.4) 32,421 (36.4) 119,645 102,285 17.0
Margins (%) 30.5 21.3 928 bps 25.7 482 bps 24.8 22.8 204 bps
PAT 8,734 13,484 (35.2) 19,514 (55.2) 57,287 61,610 (7.0)
July 8, 2013 129

Apr-Jun 2013 Earnings Preview
Consolidated Sectoral Data
Key Figures (Rs m)
2013 2014E 2015E
Net Sales 3,620,718 3,869,041 4,211,561
Growth (%) 4.8 6.9 8.9
EBITDA 643,590 710,659 791,709
Margin (%) 17.8 18.4 18.8
PAT 384,127 397,946 441,292
Growth (%) 4.7 3.6 10.9
PE (x) 8.7 8.4 7.5
Quarterly Table (Rs m)
Apr‐Jun'13 Apr‐Jun'12 YoY gr. (%) Jan‐Mar'13 QoQ gr. (%)
Net Sales 818,644 888,490 (7.9) 986,119 (17.0)
EBITDA 135,502 167,139 (18.9) 197,445 (31.4)
Margin (%) 16.6 18.8 (226)bps 20.0 (347)bps
PAT (Excl. Ex Items ) 69,988 101,553 (31.1) 118,613 (41.0)
Note: Revenue, EBITDA and PAT numbers are arrived by totaling corresponding numbers of all companies under our coverage in this
sector.
Coal India
Rating
Accumulate
Price (Rs) 290
Target Price (Rs) 370
M/Cap (Rs bn) 1,831.7
Shares o/s (m) 6,316.4
Key Figures (Rs m)
Y/e March FY13 FY14E FY15E
Net Sales 683,027 733,090 796,031
EBITDA 187,061 186,172 203,768
Margin (%) 27.4 25.4 25.6
PAT 179,742 181,030 196,991
EPS (Rs) 28.5 28.7 31.2
Growth (%) 22.1 0.7 8.8
RoE (%) 40.9 36.4 36.0
PE (x) 10.2 10.1 9.3
P / BV (x) 3.9 3.5 3.2
EV / E (x) 6.2 6.0 5.1
Net revenue is expected to grow 0.5% YoY on the back of 2% volume growth, partially
undone by 1.5% fall in realisations. Cost/t is expected to increase 11% YoY (Rs116/t) at
Rs1,153 due to higher diesel cost and hike in contractual expenses. Hence, EBITDA/t is
expected to fall by 32% YoY at Rs290. Accordingly, EBITDA and PAT is expected to
decline by 31% YoY and 25% YoY at Rs33.4bn and 33.5bn, respectively.
Quarterly Table (Rs m)
Y/e March
Q1
FY14E
Q1
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Q4
FY13
12M
FY14E
12M
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Net Sales 165,900 165,006 0.5 199,046 733,090 683,027 7.3
EBITDA 33,366 48,146 (30.7) 61,191 186,172 187,061 (0.5)
Margin (%) 20.1 29.2 (907)bps 30.7 25.4 27.4 (199)bps
Reported PAT 33,468 44,693 (25.1) 54,139 181,030 179,788 0.7
PAT (Excl. Ex Items) 33,468 44,762 (25.2) 53,993 181,030 179,742 0.7
Operating Metrics
Coal despatches (mn tn) 115 113 2.0 130 486 465 4.4
Rea l. / tonne (Rs ) 1,443 1,465 (1.5) 1,532 1,509 1,471 2.6
Total cos t per tonne (Rs ) 1,153 1,037 11.2 1,061 1,082 1,081 0.0
EBITDA / tonne (Rs ) 290 427 (32.1) 471 383 389 (1.6)
Cash cost per tonne (Rs) 1,061 944 12.4 955 993 992 0.0
Emp. cost / tonne (Rs) 618 598 2.6 521 604 604 0.0
OBR adj / tonne (Rs) 70 71 (2.1) 62 71 71 (0.0)
July 8, 2013 130

Apr-Jun 2013 Earnings Preview
Hindustan Zinc
Rating
BUY
Price (Rs) 101
Target Price (Rs) 150
M/Cap (Rs bn) 427.6
Shares o/s (m) 4,225.3
Key Figures (Rs m)
Y/e March FY13 FY14E FY15E
Net Sales 125,257 131,935 137,418
EBITDA 62,585 67,448 69,418
Margin (%) 50.0 51.1 50.5
PAT 68,484 66,644 70,830
EPS (Rs) 16.2 15.8 16.8
Growth (%) 25.4 (2.7) 6.3
RoE (%) 23.2 19.2 17.8
PE (x) 6.2 6.4 6.0
P / BV (x) 1.3 1.1 1.0
EV / E (x) 5.7 4.6 3.9
Net revenue is expected to decline ~25.4% QoQ due to 1) 6% and 18% fall in zinclead
and silver realisations, 2) 5% and 16% fall in refined zinc-lead and silver volumes
and 3) no sale of concentrate in quarter against 61000 tonnes in LQ. Thanks to lower
volumes and realisations, both EBITDA and PAT are expected to decline 32% QoQ at
Rs14.1bn and Rs14.7bn, respectively.
Quarterly Table (Rs m)
Y/e March
Q1
FY14E
Q1
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Q4
FY13
12M
FY14E
12M
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Net Sales 28,724 27,127 5.9 38,503 131,935 125,257 5.3
EBITDA 14,054 13,935 0.9 20,576 67,448 62,585 7.8
Margin (%) 48.9 51.4 (244)bps 53.4 51.1 50.0 116 bps
Reported PAT 14,744 15,813 (6.8) 21,658 66,644 68,330 (2.5)
PAT (Excl. Ex Items) 14,744 15,813 (6.8) 21,818 66,644 68,484 (2.7)
Operating Metrics
Total Refined metal-tns 203,000 189,000 7.4 214,500 819,800 792,403 3.5
Silver Sales Vol. (kg) 89,880 73,000 23.1 107,000 427,350 374,000 14.3
Zinc (US$)-LME / tonne 1,843 1,935 (4.8) 2,030 1,950 1,948 0.1
Silver (Rs / Kg) 47,103 53,151 (11.4) 57,103 45,900 55,670 (17.6)
Jindal Steel & Power
Rating
Accumulate
Price (Rs) 222
Target Price (Rs) 271
M/Cap (Rs bn) 207.3
Shares o/s (m) 934.8
Key Figures (Rs m)
Y/e March FY13 FY14E FY15E
Net Sales 195,540 226,746 284,473
EBITDA 64,159 68,670 86,285
Margin (%) 32.8 30.3 30.3
PAT 34,842 29,849 30,816
EPS (Rs) 37.3 31.9 33.0
Growth (%) (14.2) (14.3) 3.2
RoE (%) 17.7 13.1 12.0
PE (x) 5.9 6.9 6.7
P / BV (x) 1.0 0.9 0.8
EV / E (x) 6.6 7.0 5.9
Thanks to 3.6% increase in realisations QoQ, fall in standalone revenue would be arrested
to 13.4% QoQ, given the 21.2% fall in steel volumes and 20% drop in pellet volumes.
Standalone EBITDA is expected to decline 5.1% QoQ at Rs9.37bn, while, PAT is expected to
decline 36% due to higher interest cost and tax. JPL is expected to report 5% QoQ growth in
PAT at Rs3.0bn on account of 2% growth in volumes and lower cost. Consolidated EBITDA is
expected to fall 4.8% QoQ at Rs14.5bn, while PAT is expected to decline 10% at Rs6.85bn.
Quarterly Table (Rs m)
Y/e March
Q1
FY14E
Q1
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Q4
FY13
12M
FY14E
12M
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Net Sales 49,507 46,804 5.8 55,833 226,746 195,540 16.0
EBITDA 14,503 15,722 (7.8) 15,242 68,670 64,159 7.0
Margin (%) 29.3 33.6 (430)bps 27.3 30.3 32.8 (253)bps
Reported PAT 6,855 3,853 77.9 7,602 29,849 29,101 2.6
PAT (Excl. Ex Items) 6,855 8,300 (17.4) 7,602 29,849 34,842 (14.3)
Operating Metrics
Steel Sales Vol. (Tonnes) 716,300 561,337 27.6 908,736 3,331,319 2,808,959 18.6
JSPL-Pwr (m kwh) 600 584 2.7 517 4,360 2,576 69.2
Standalone EBITDA 9,372 10,185 (8.0) 9,878 46,327 45,871 1.0
Standalone PAT 3,046 4,003 (23.9) 4,775 20,075 23,268 (13.7)
JPL-Kwh s old (m) 1,996 1,970 1.4 1,921 7,653 7,254 5.5
JPL-Rate / Kwh 3.2 3.8 (15.0) 3.2 3.2 3.2 0.0
JPL-PAT 2,965 3,143 (5.7) 2,822 13,225 11,822 11.9
July 8, 2013 131

Apr-Jun 2013 Earnings Preview
JSW Steel
Rating
Reduce
Price (Rs) 604
Target Price (Rs) 650
M/Cap (Rs bn) 134.7
Shares o/s (m) 223.0
Adjusted for merger of JSW-Ispat, JSW Steel’s realisation is expected to fall 1.2% or
Rs440/t at Rs36,290. While, volumes would decline 8% QoQ decline at 2.7m tonnes.
Given the low margin profile of JSW-Ispat’s operations and weak realisations,
consolidated EBITDA/t is expected to fall 10% QoQ at Rs6294. While, on like-to-likebasis,
EBITDA/t is expected to fall 3.6% QoQ at Rs6320. EBITDA is expected to decline
10% QoQ at Rs16.9bn on a like-to-like basis and flat on reported basis. We expect
adjusted consolidated PAT at Rs4bn.
Key Figures (Rs m) ‐ Consolidated
Y/e March FY13 FY14E FY15E
Net Sales 380,949 395,892 426,960
EBITDA 63,892 69,170 75,190
Margin (%) 16.8 17.5 17.6
PAT 12,126 17,221 20,637
EPS (Rs) 54.3 77.2 92.6
Growth (%) 10.7 42.1 19.9
RoE (%) 7.1 9.5 10.5
PE (x) 11.1 7.8 6.5
P / BV (x) 0.8 0.7 0.7
EV / E (x) 6.1 5.6 4.9
Quarterly Table (Rs m)
Y/e March
Q1
FY14E
Q1
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Q4
FY13
12M
FY14E
12M
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Net Sales 107,527 99,020 8.6 98,515 395,892 380,949 3.9
EBITDA 16,932 19,006 (10.9) 16,865 69,170 63,892 8.3
Margin (%) 15.7 19.2 (345)bps 17.1 17.5 16.8 70 bps
Reported PAT (3,152) 497 (734.9) 2,959 17,221 9,631 78.8
PAT (Excl. Ex Items) 4,065 4,515 63.6 2,485 17,221 12,126 42.0
Operating Metrics
Sales Vol. (mt) 2.7 2.1 27.5 2.4 9.1 8.9 2.4
Rea lisation / tonne (Rs) 36,290 42,817 (15.2) 38,218 35,651 35,320 0.9
EBITDA / tonne (Rs ) 6,294 9,012 (30.2) 6,969 7,378 6,997 5.4
SAIL
Rating
Reduce
Price (Rs) 48
Target Price (Rs) 54
M/Cap (Rs bn) 197.4
Shares o/s (m) 4,130.5
Net revenue is expected to decline 16.4% QoQ on account of 16.4% decline in
volume and flat realisations. We expect volumes of 2.7m tonnes and realizations at
Rs37,655 for the quarter. EBITDA/tonne is expected to decline 5.5% (Rs127) QoQ at
Rs2,182 on account of lower realisations and volumes. Adjusted PAT is expected to
decline 51% QoQ at Rs2.14bn.
Key Figures (Rs m)
Y/e March FY13 FY14E FY15E
Net Sales 439,611 455,942 529,765
EBITDA 40,397 50,764 67,458
Margin (%) 9.2 11.1 12.7
PAT 23,999 21,592 25,667
EPS (Rs) 5.8 5.2 6.2
Growth (%) (35.6) (10.0) 18.9
RoE (%) 5.9 5.2 6.0
PE (x) 8.2 9.1 7.7
P / BV (x) 0.5 0.5 0.5
EV / E (x) 9.6 8.8 7.6
Quarterly Table (Rs m)
Y/e March
Q1
FY14E
Q1
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Q4
FY13
12M
FY14E
12M
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Net Sales 101,669 106,407 (4.5) 121,625 455,942 439,611 3.7
EBITDA 5,892 13,785 (57.3) 7,459 50,764 40,397 25.7
Margin (%) 5.8 13.0 (716)bps 6.1 11.1 9.2 194 bps
Reported PAT 1,457 6,964 (79.1) 4,469 21,592 21,706 (0.5)
PAT (Excl. Ex Items) 2,137 8,700 (75.4) 4,358 21,592 23,999 (10.0)
Operating Metrics
Sales Vol. (mt) 2.7 2.5 8.0 3.2 11.9 11.1 7.5
Rea l./Tonne (Rs) 37,655 42,563 (11.5) 37,655 36,894 39,346 (6.2)
EBITDA/Tonne (Rs) 2,182 5,514 (60.4) 2,309 4,255 3,639 16.9
July 8, 2013 132

Apr-Jun 2013 Earnings Preview
Tata Steel
Rating
Reduce
Price (Rs) 260
Target Price (Rs) 270
M/Cap (Rs bn) 252.5
Shares o/s (m) 971.4
Standalone net revenue (incl. other operating income) is expected to decline 13%
QoQ on account of 12.2% fall in volumes and 0.8% (Rs313/t) decline in realisations.
Thanks to lower volumes and weak realisations, EBITDA/t would decline 3% QoQ
(Rs407/t) at Rs13,355. Hence, EBITDA would decline 15.5% QoQ at Rs27.9bn, while,
PAT would grow 0.6% QoQ at Rs13.2bn on account of 630bps fall in tax rate.
Key Figures (Rs m) ‐ Consolidated
Y/e March FY13 FY14E FY15E
Net Sales 1,347,115 1,443,096 1,521,833
EBITDA 123,212 148,791 163,274
Margin (%) 9.1 10.3 10.7
PAT 3,323 24,323 34,528
EPS (Rs) 3.4 25.0 35.5
Growth (%) (83.6) 632.0 42.0
RoE (%) 0.9 7.0 9.6
PE (x) 76.0 10.4 7.3
P / BV (x) 0.7 0.7 0.7
EV / E (x) 6.9 6.0 5.6
Quarterly Table (Rs m) ‐ Standalone
Y/e March
Q1
FY14E
Q1
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Q4
FY13
12M
FY14E
12M
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Net Sales 93,698 89,080 5.2 107,705 432,560 381,994 13.2
EBITDA 27,910 27,798 0.4 33,040 124,778 111,262 12.1
Margin (%) 29.8 31.2 (142)bps 30.7 28.8 29.1 (28)bps
Reported PAT 13,174 13,566 (2.9) 13,092 61,391 50,630 21.3
PAT (Excl. Ex Items) 13,178 13,566 (2.9) 13,092 61,391 43,884 39.9
Operating Metrics
Sales volume (m tonnes) 2.0 1.6 26.1 2.3 8.6 7.5 14.8
Realisation / Tonne (Rs) 35,514 40,650 (12.6) 35,827 36,150 37,784 (4.3)
EBITDA / Tonne (Rs) 13,955 17,527 (20.4) 14,498 14,514 14,863 (2.3)
Tata Steel
Rating
Reduce
Price (Rs) 260
Target Price (Rs) 270
M/Cap (Rs bn) 252.5
Shares o/s (m) 971.4
Key Figures (Rs m) ‐ Consolidated
Y/e March FY13 FY14E FY15E
Net Sales 1,347,115 1,443,096 1,521,833
EBITDA 123,212 148,791 163,274
Margin (%) 9.1 10.3 10.7
PAT 3,323 24,323 34,528
EPS (Rs) 3.4 25.0 35.5
Growth (%) (83.6) 632.0 42.0
RoE (%) 0.9 7.0 9.6
PE (x) 76.0 10.4 7.3
P / BV (x) 0.7 0.7 0.7
EV / E (x) 6.9 6.0 5.6
Tata Steel Europe’s (TSE) EBITDA/t is expected by US$22 QoQ at US$11 on account
of higher iron ore cost and lower scale. Thanks to lower earnings in both domestic
and TSE, we expect consolidated EBITDA to decline 31% QoQ at Rs30.1bn. We expect
loss of Rs14m as against profit of Rs8.8bn and Rs6bn in Q4FY13 and Q1FY13,
respectively.
Quarterly Table (Rs m) – Consolidated
Y/e March
Q1
FY14E
Q1
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Q4
FY13
12M
FY14E
12M
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Net Sales 297,791 338,212 (12.0) 346,505 1,444,801 1,347,115 7.3
EBITDA 30,138 34,033 (11.4) 43,689 150,491 123,212 22.1
Margin (%) 10.1 10.1 6 bps 12.6 10.4 9.1 127 bps
Reported PAT (14) 5,979 (100.2) (65,285) 28,623 (70,576) (140.6)
PAT (Excl. Ex Items) (14) 5,979 (100.2) 8,843 28,623 3,323 761.5
Operating Metrics
Sales Vol.-Corus (mt) 3.3 3.2 2.8 3.4 13.7 13.1 4.8
EBITDA/Tn-Corus (US$) 11 35 (67.9) 33 25 11 135.8
Sales Vol.-South East
(mt)
0.8 0.7 11.1
0.8 3.3 3.0 8.6
EBITDA/Tn-SEAN (US$) 42.0 23.6 77.9 51.7 30.0 29.1 3.2
July 8, 2013 133

Apr-Jun 2013 Earnings Preview
Sterlite Industries
Rating
Reduce
Price (Rs) 83
Target Price (Rs) 85
M/Cap (Rs bn) 277.5
Shares o/s (m) 3,361.2
Key Figures (Rs m)
Y/e March FY13 FY14E FY15E
Net Sales 449,219 482,341 515,081
EBITDA 102,285 119,645 126,316
Margin (%) 22.8 24.8 24.5
PAT 61,610 57,287 61,823
EPS (Rs) 18.3 17.0 18.4
Growth (%) 9.9 (7.0) 7.9
RoE (%) 12.7 10.8 10.7
PE (x) 4.5 4.8 4.5
P / BV (x) 0.5 0.5 0.5
EV / E (x) 2.1 1.5 0.9
EBITDA is expected to decline 36.4% QoQ at Rs20.6bn due to closure of copper
smelter during the quarter and weak earnings in the rest of businesses excluding
power. We expect fall of 98%, 51%, 38% in EBITDA of copper, aluminium and
International zinc biz, respectively. Power biz’s EBITDA is expected to grow 23.6% at
Rs3.4bn on the back of higher PLF in SEL. Company’s share of loss in VAL is expected
at Rs2.6bn on account of fall in realisations, forex loss and higher cost due to
shutdown of refinery. Hence, adjusted PAT would decline 55% QoQ at Rs8.7bn.
Quarterly Table (Rs m)
Y/e March
Q1
FY14E
Q1
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Q4
FY13
12M
FY14E
12M
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Net Sales 67,526 105,914 (36.2) 126,092 482,341 449,219 7.4
EBITDA 20,617 22,512 (8.4) 32,421 119,645 102,285 17.0
Margin (%) 30.5 21.3 928 bps 25.7 24.8 22.8 204 bps
Reported PAT 4,974 12,016 (58.6) 19,246 57,287 60,603 (5.5)
PAT (Excl. Ex Items) 8,734 13,484 (35.2) 19,514 57,287 61,610 (7.0)
Operating Metrics
LME-Aluminium 1,835 1,978 (7.2) 2,000 2,000 1,974 1.3
Price per unit (SEL) (Rs) 3.3 3.4 (4.1) 3.2 3.5 3.5 0.0
EBITDA-Zinc (Int. Op.) 2,696 3,370 (20.0) 4,340 14,967 14,073 6.4
EBITDA-Sterlite Copper 82 2,650 (96.9) 3,750 11,940 10,938 9.2
EBITDA-Aluminium 415 570 (27.1) 850 6,976 2,603 168.0
EBITDA-SEL 3,407 2,655 28.3 2,757 17,280 12,892 34.0
July 8, 2013 134

Apr-Jun 2013 Earnings Preview
Kejal Mehta
kejalmehta@plindia.com
+91-22-6632 2246
Top picks
Adani Ports & SEZ
Gujarat Pipavav Port
Offshore & Ports
Offshore
Crude firmed up further during the quarter teasing the US$100 mark. This led to
jackup rig utilizations remaining firm despite an increase in fleet size from 398 rigs to
407. Utilizations for drill ships declined slightly on the back of an increased fleet size,
while semisub utilizations formed on a stable fleet.
Stock prices of global and Indian offshore companies displayed a divergent trend to
that of crude this quarter.
Rig Utilizations
100.0%
95.0%
90.0%
85.0%
80.0%
75.0%
70.0%
65.0%
Source: Rigzone
Drill Ships Jack Ups Semisubs
Feb-08
May-08
Aug-08
Nov-08
Feb-09
May-09
Aug-09
Nov-09
Feb-10
May-10
Aug-10
Nov-10
Feb-11
May-11
Aug-11
Nov-11
Feb-12
May-12
Aug-12
Nov-12
Feb-13
May-13
Crude prices consolidate after correction
110.00
105.00
100.00
(US$/bbl)
95.00
90.00
85.00
80.00
75.00
Jul-11
Sep-11
Nov-11
Jan-12
Mar-12
May-12
Jul-12
Sep-12
Nov-12
Jan-13
Mar-13
May-13
Jul-13
Source: Bloomberg, PL Research
July 8, 2013 135

Apr-Jun 2013 Earnings Preview
Relative stock performance of Global Offshore companies
140
130
120
110
100
90
80
70
60
50
Aban Great Offshore Noble Ensco Transocean
Jul-12
Aug-12
Sep-12
Oct-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Source: Bloomberg, PL Research
Ports
Volumes at the major ports did not give us much to cheer about. Although March
and May volumes were stable, April was an extremely weak month. On a YoY basis,
volumes for the March-May period declined by 3%, while on a QoQ basis, volumes
witnessed a marginal 1% rise.
Iron-ore volumes remained stable having started their recovery process from last
quarter onwards after a major decline due to issues like the hike in export duty,
coupled with the ban on illegal mining in Goa.
Coal volumes continued to be on rise post the drop in coal prices, as domestic
availability of coal still seems to be an issue. Container volumes remained stable with
a slight uptick in the export and import activity and the increasing focus of the
government to promote exports .
Major port volumes
60
Volumes
YoY % Growth (RHS)
15.0%
50
10.0%
(m tonnes)
40
30
20
5.0%
0.0%
-5.0%
10
-10.0%
0
-15.0%
Jan 10
May 10
Sep 10
Jan 11
May 11
Sep 11
Jan 12
May 12
Sep 12
Jan 13
May 13
Source: IPA, PL Research
July 8, 2013 136

Apr-Jun 2013 Earnings Preview
Container volumes at major ports
(millionTEUs)
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.61
0.56
0.65
0.63
0.65
0.61
0.64
0.56
0.64
0.64
0.62
0.60
0.66
0.61
0.67
0.64
0.65
0.65
0.63
0.65
0.66
0.66
0.63
0.66
0.69
0.56
0.67
0.64
0.66
0.65
0.68
0.68
0.63
0.61
0.62
0.60
0.67
0.60
0.67
0.61
0.63
Jan 10
Mar 10
May 10
Jul 10
Sep 10
Nov 10
Jan 11
Mar 11
May 11
Jul 11
Sep 11
Nov 11
Jan 12
Mar 12
May 12
Jul 12
Sep 12
Nov 12
Jan 13
Mar 13
May 13
Stock Performance
Source: IPA
Absolute
Relative to Sensex
1M 3M 6M 12M 1M 3M 6M 12M
Aban Offshore (18.2) (9.1) (39.1) (41.5) (17.7) (13.9) (37.0) (51.8)
Adani Port & SEZ (1.9) 3.6 8.5 21.7 (1.3) (1.2) 10.7 11.4
Gateway Distriparks (14.5) (16.1) (25.7) (31.2) (14.0) (20.9) (23.6) (41.5)
Gujarat Pipavav Port (2.1) (8.3) (3.7) (19.7) (1.6) (13.1) (1.5) (30.0)
Source: Bloomberg, PL Research
Summary Financials ‐ Quarterly (Rs m)
Aban Offshore
Adani Port & SEZ
Gateway
Distriparks
Guja ra t Pi pa va v
Port
Q1FY14E Q1FY13 YoY gr. (%) Q4FY13 QoQ gr. (%) 12MFY14E 12MFY13 YoY gr. (%)
Sales 8,320 8,500 (2.1) 9,597 (13.3) 37,478 36,727 2.0
EBITDA 4,370 5,060 (13.6) 5,030 (13.1) 20,065 19,859 1.0
Margins (%) 52.5 59.5 (701)bps 52.4 12 bps 53.5 54.1 (53)bps
PAT 85 521 (83.7) 577 (85.3) 2,248 1,939 16.0
Sales 9,829 10,334 (4.9) 10,355 (5.1) 45,867 35,766 28.2
EBITDA 6,782 8,005 (15.3) 6,310 7.5 31,999 23,835 34.3
Margins (%) 69.0 77.5 (846)bps 60.9 806 bps 69.8 66.6 313 bps
PAT 2,299 2,763 (16.8) 3,702 (37.9) 19,309 16,232 19.0
Sales 2,150 2,320 (7.3) 2,671 (19.5) 11,022 9,541 15.5
EBITDA 542 660 (17.9) 623 (13.1) 2,981 2,441 22.1
Margins (%) 25.2 28.4 (323)bps 23.3 186 bps 27.0 25.6 146 bps
PAT 238 352 (32.5) 336 (29.4) 1,565 1,267 23.6
Sales 1,150 938 22.6 1,245 (7.6) 2,395 1,942 23.3
EBITDA 545 385 41.7 570 (4.3) 1,115 836 33.4
Margins (%) 47.4 41.0 640 bps 45.8 162 bps 46.5 43.0 352 bps
PAT 348 157 121.4 354 (1.6) 702 298 135.5
Source: Company Data, PL Research
Gujarat Pipavav Port ‐ Y/e Dec
July 8, 2013 137

Apr-Jun 2013 Earnings Preview
Consolidated Sectoral Data
Key Figures (Rs m)
2013 2014E 2015E
Net Sales 86,194 99,010 114,232
Growth (%) 21.7 14.9 15.4
EBITDA 47,953 57,274 65,364
Margin (%) 55.6 57.8 57.2
PAT 20,177 24,202 29,987
Growth (%) 25.1 19.9 23.9
PE (x) 17.5 14.6 11.8
Quarterly Table (Rs m)
Apr‐Jun'13 Apr‐Jun'12 YoY gr. (%) Jan‐Mar'13 QoQ gr. (%)
Net Sales 21,449 22,092 (2.9) 23,868 (10.1)
EBITDA 12,238 14,110 (13.3) 12,533 (2.4)
Margin (%) 57.1 63.9 (681)bps 52.5 455 bps
PAT (Excl. Ex Items ) 2,969 3,793 (21.7) 4,969 (40.2)
Note: Revenue, EBITDA and PAT numbers are arrived by totaling corresponding numbers of all companies under our coverage in this
sector.
Aban Offshore
Rating
Accumulate
Price (Rs) 243
Target Price (Rs) 378
M/Cap (Rs bn) 10.6
Shares o/s (m) 43.5
Key Figures (Rs m)
Y/e March FY13 FY14E FY15E
Net Sales 36,727 37,478 39,961
EBITDA 19,859 20,065 20,708
Margin (%) 54.1 53.5 51.8
PAT 1,939 2,248 2,987
EPS (Rs) 44.5 51.7 68.6
Growth (%) (39.7) 16.0 32.9
RoE (%) 8.0 9.4 11.3
PE (x) 5.5 4.7 3.5
P / BV (x) 0.5 0.4 0.4
EV / E (x) 7.3 6.9 6.3
During the quarter, three vessels remained were idle. In March 2013, Aban Ice and
DDI went off-contract. Of these, DDI has already been re-contracted and will
commence operations from July 2013 onwards. Aban Ice is currently being
marketed. Further, Aban 7 completed its contract in May 2013 and is also being
marketed. Revenues for the quarter are hence likely to be lower as well as subdued
margins. On account of the weakening rupee, the company’s dollar debt has not
seen a reduction in rupee terms despite repayments and hence, the interest cost
continues to remain high.
Quarterly Table (Rs m) ‐ Standalone
Y/e March
Q1
FY14E
Q1
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Q4
FY13
12M
FY14E
12M
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Net Sales 8,320 8,500 (2.1) 9,597 37,478 36,727 2.0
EBITDA 4,370 5,060 (13.6) 5,030 20,065 19,859 1.0
Margin (%) 52.5 59.5 (701)bps 52.4 53.5 54.1 (53)bps
Reported PAT 85 521 (83.7) 577 2,248 1,939 16.0
PAT (Excl. Ex Items ) 85 521 (83.7) 577 2,248 1,939 16.0
Operating Metrics
Fleet Size 18.0 18.0 18.0 18.0 18.0
No. of uncontracted
rigs
2.0 2.0
1.0 — —
July 8, 2013 138

Apr-Jun 2013 Earnings Preview
Adani Ports & SEZ
Rating
BUY
Price (Rs) 149
Target Price (Rs) 180
M/Cap (Rs bn) 308.9
Shares o/s (m) 2,070.1
At Mundra, we expect flattish volumes on a sequential basis; however, 33% YoY
growth was led by coal, containers and crude. CT3 shall also start contributing from
this year onwards. The contribution from Dahej is expected to be steady, while
Hazira’a contribution to volumes is expected to scale-up. With the loss-making Abbot
Point divested, the profits on a consolidated basis are expected to look healthier
from the current quarter onwards.
Key Figures (Rs m) ‐ Consolidated
Y/e March FY13 FY14E FY15E
Net Sales 35,766 45,867 55,910
EBITDA 23,835 31,999 38,228
Margin (%) 66.6 69.8 68.4
PAT 16,232 19,309 23,868
EPS (Rs) 8.1 9.3 11.5
Growth (%) 47.3 15.1 23.6
RoE (%) 28.9 25.4 24.6
PE (x) 18.4 16.0 12.9
P / BV (x) 4.7 3.5 2.9
EV / E (x) 17.3 13.3 10.0
Quarterly Table (Rs m)
Y/e March
Q1
FY14E
Q1
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Q4
FY13
12M
FY14E
12M
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Net Sales 9,829 10,334 (4.9) 10,355 45,867 35,766 28.2
EBITDA 6,782 8,005 (15.3) 6,310 31,999 23,835 34.3
Margin (%) 69.0 77.5 (846)bps 60.9 69.8 66.6 313 bps
Reported PAT 2,299 2,763 (16.8) 3,702 19,309 15,379 25.6
PAT (Excl. Ex Items ) 2,299 2,763 (16.8) 3,702 19,309 16,232 19.0
Operating Metrics
Rev/Tonne (Rs) 345 376 (8.3) 303 578 449 28.7
Port Vol. (m tonnes) 26.3 18.7 40.7 25.8 117.6 90.7 29.6
Gateway Distriparks
Rating
Accumulate
Price (Rs) 102
Target Price (Rs) 161
M/Cap (Rs bn) 11.0
Shares o/s (m) 108.5
Key Figures (Rs m) ‐ Consolidated
Y/e March FY13 FY14E FY15E
Net Sales 9,541 11,022 12,918
EBITDA 2,441 2,981 3,488
Margin (%) 25.6 27.0 27.0
PAT 1,267 1,565 1,839
EPS (Rs) 11.7 14.4 17.0
Growth (%) (4.3) 23.6 17.5
RoE (%) 16.5 18.9 19.9
PE (x) 8.7 7.0 6.0
P / BV (x) 1.4 1.3 1.1
EV / E (x) 6.2 5.2 4.2
CFS & Rail volumes in the first two months of the quarter were extremely subdued
and witnessed a slight pick-up in June. On account of the same, dwell time and
realizations for CFS are likely to be weak during the quarter. The big development
was on the cold chain size where Rs0.6bn was invested by Norwest Venture, giving
them a stake of 14% in Snowman. These funds will be used for Snowman for the
expansion of its capacities.
Quarterly Table (Rs m)
Y/e March
Q1
FY14E
Q1
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Q4
FY13
12M
FY14E
12M
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Net Sales 2,150 2,320 (7.3) 2,671 11,022 9,541 15.5
EBITDA 542 660 (17.9) 623 2,981 2,441 22.1
Margin (%) 25.2 28.4 (323)bps 23.3 27.0 25.6 146 bps
Reported PAT 238 352 (32.5) 336 1,565 1,267 23.6
PAT (Excl. Ex Items ) 238 352 (32.5) 336 1,565 1,267 23.6
Operating Metrics
CFS Volumes (TEUs ) 82,550 92,419 (10.7) 89,009 409,120 342,661 19.4
Revenue/TEU (Rs ) 8,560 8,722 (1.9) 8,793 8,558 8,765 (2.4)
Rail Business
Volumes (TEUs)
59,860 61,008
(1.9)
61,082 265,200 233,566 13.5
July 8, 2013 139

Apr-Jun 2013 Earnings Preview
Gujarat Pipavav Port
Rating
BUY
Price (Rs) 46
Target Price (Rs) 62
M/Cap (Rs bn) 22.2
Shares o/s (m) 483.4
Key Figures (Rs m)
Y/e Dec CY12 CY13E CY14E
Net Sales 4,160 4,644 5,443
EBITDA 1,819 2,229 2,939
Margin (%) 43.7 48.0 54.0
PAT 740 1,079 1,293
EPS (Rs) 1.5 2.2 2.7
Growth (%) 13.4 45.9 19.8
RoE (%) 7.4 8.6 9.6
PE (x) 30.1 20.6 17.2
P / BV (x) 1.8 1.7 1.6
EV / E (x) 13.7 11.3 8.9
Post the exit of Maersk, though volumes are scaling back, on the whole, the
container business remains unstable, with lines revamping, combining or even
upsizing services. This quarter, ‘Hyundai’, which contributes 3000Teus/month at
Pipavav, exited the port from May 2013, while another Korean line ‘Hanjin’ is
expected to compensate. Bulk volumes are expected to languish with the drop in
coal volumes; however, fertilizer volumes are expected to make up for bit of these.
On account of rebate reversals on non-fulfillment of volume commitments on the
container side, which was a part of revenues in Q1, current quarter revenues are
likely to be lower.
Quarterly Table (Rs m)
Y/e Dec
Q2
CY13E
Q2
CY12
YoY gr.
(%)
Q1
CY13
H1
CY13E
H1
CY12
YoY gr.
(%)
Net Sales 1,150 938 22.6 1,245 2,395 1,942 23.3
EBITDA 545 385 41.7 570 1,115 836 33.4
Margin (%) 47.4 41.0 640 bps 45.8 46.5 43.0 352 bps
Reported PAT 348 157 121.4 354 702 298 135.5
PAT (Excl. Ex Items ) 348 157 121.4 354 702 298 135.5
Operating Metrics
Container (m TEU) 0.16 0.12 31.2 0.16 0.32 0.29 11.8
Bulk (mt) 0.61 0.87 (29.9) 0.56 1.17 1.50 (21.8)
July 8, 2013 140

Apr-Jun 2013 Earnings Preview
Surajit Pal
surajitpal@plindia.com
+91-22-6632 2259
Top picks
Ranbaxy
Glenmark Pharma
Lupin
Pharmaceuticals
With few contributions of one-offs in US generics, we expect 12% YoY revenue
growth in our coverage universe. EBITDA margin to remain steady at 22-24% with 7%
YoY growth. Adjusted PAT is expected to achieve 1% YoY growth due to natural
hedge between US formulation exports vis-à-vis import of raw materials and ROW
exports. Except Glenmark and Dr Reddy’s Lab, we estimate 2-5% impact in domestic
sales for companies in coverage universe for Q1FY14E due to pre-implementation
inventory adjustments and lower offtake before implementation of new NPPA in July
2013. We expect similar impact is also expected in Q2FY14E. While delayed approval
to boost Dr. Reddy’s US sales and incorporation of DUSA and URL Pharma in US to
favour Sun Pharma, the rest of companies in the universe to achieve steady growth
in core sales. We observe that Cipla and Zydus Cadila to be impacted by lack of major
approvals in US, while domestic sales to receive maximum impact among our
universe. Average forex rate is assumed at INR58, which would increase sales growth
while expansion of sales force, increased inflows from semi-regulatory markets and
50-70% of raw material import to restrict growth in headline margins. Forex hedge
loss, high leverage with forex loan (Aurobindo, Jubilant Life and Zydus Cadila) and
inventory adjustments would mitigate benefits accrued from favourable forex
impact in revenues.
Q1FY14 Performance – Excluding one‐offs
YoY margin improvement
YoY growth (%)
(bps)
Revenue EBITDA PAT EBITDA PAT
Sun Pharma 15 11 -6 -440 -850
Cipla 11 19 13 150 40
Dr. Reddy's Labs 26 41 27 230 60
Ranbaxy 20 45 NA 90 NA
Lupin 17 30 16 90 10
Cadila 3 -15 -13 -350 -170
Large generic companies 15.3 21.8 6.2 ‐38.3 ‐182
Glenmark 17 15 80 -50 -110
Aurobindo 41 123 99 590 260
Jubilant Life 14 -12 -30 -500 380
Mid‐cap companies 24 42 49.7 13.3 176.7
Aggregate 19.7 31.9 28 ‐15.7 ‐76
Source: Company Data, PL Research
Note – Above numbers exclude one‐offs to facilitate comparison of core operations
July 8, 2013 141

Apr-Jun 2013 Earnings Preview
Q1FY14 Performance – Including one‐offs
YoY margin improvement
YoY growth (%)
(bps)
Revenue EBITDA PAT EBITDA PAT
Sun Pharma 23 11 -6 -440 NA
Cipla 4 -8 -18 -300 -450
Dr. Reddy's Lab 26 41 27 230 10
Ranbaxy -16 -48 NA -590 NA
Lupin 17 22 17 110 10
Cadila 3 -15 -13 -350 -230
Large generic companies 9.5 0.5 1.4 ‐223 ‐50
Glenmark 17 15 80 -50 400
Aurobindo 41 123 NA 590 NA
Jubilant Life 14 -12 -30 -500 -380
Mid‐cap companies 24 42 16.7 13.3 6.7
Aggregate 16.8 21.3 9.1 ‐270 ‐21.7
Source: Company Data, PL Research
US to be key growth driver in absence of domestic sales growth in
Q1FY14E
We notice that US generic sales to be dominant growth driver while the companies
are struggling to maintain growth in domestic formulations due to structural issues.
Aurobindo, Dr Reddy’s and Lupin to be benefitted from steady flow of new approvals
in US while Glenmark and Ranbaxy to gain benefit from core sales in growth in
Q1FY14E.
We believe that US remains a key growth driver for most of the Indian companies in
the medium term. The table below gives our expectation of the US sales growth of
our universe Q1FY13 the quarter v/s the overall top-line growth of those companies.
US lead growth for companies during the quarter
Base US business growth (%) Overall top‐line growth (%)
Sun Pharma 7 11
Dr. Reddy's Lab 54 26
Lupin 46 17
Cadila 5 3
Ranbaxy 53 14
Glenmark 18 17
Source: Company Data, PL Research
* Excluding Irom acquisition. ^ Excluding Biochem Acquisition
July 8, 2013 142

Apr-Jun 2013 Earnings Preview
Depreciation of INR against major currencies to boost topline but
cast shadow in PAT for companies with forex debt
Rupee has depreciated by 6.4% YoY against the USD and 3.7% YoY against Euro.
This would benefit sales growth for frontline pharma companies with high exposure
to US and EU exports. The benefits would however limited to companies with lower
hedge of USD/Euro exports. Hence, the benefit would not be available to Dr. Reddy’s
Labs and Ranbaxy as those companies have significant hedge in foreign currency.
The companies with limited hedge such as Lupin, Sun Pharma, Glenmark, Cadila and
Cipla to benefit vis-à-vis peers as they cover hedge only 20-30% of quarterly sales.
Further, the companies with significant foreign exchange debt such as Aurobindo,
Jubilant Life and Zydus Cadila would expect strong MTM loss to erode benefit of
forex at operating profit.
YoY and QoQ INR depreciation v/s USD and Euro to partially boost revenues but PAT to have different impact on foreign currency borrowers
110
USD-INR
EUR-INR
112
USD-INR
EUR-INR
108
100
104
100
90
96
Jun-12
Jul-12
Aug-12
Sep-12
Oct-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Source: Bloomberg, PL Research
New Pharma Pricing Policy (NPPA) to impact India formulation sales
Government has announced new pharma pricing policy (modified) to be
implemented from July 1, 2013 post approval from Union cabinet. The new policy
which was modified to fix ceiling price for 348 drugs increased from 75 drugs
covered by National List of Essential Medicines (NLEM) 2011 based on simple
average price (v/s weighted average price earlier) of all the brands having market
share of more than 1% market share. The government has released suggested ceiling
price of 190 drugs out of 348 drugs under new NLEM to be applied from July 1, 2013.
Within our coverage, Glenmark and Dr Reddy’s Lab to be the least affected while
Cipla and Zydus Cadila to be the most impacted.
The key highlights of the new pricing policy are:
! Market based pricing policy to be positive in long term vs cost based pricing in
previous NLEM policy
! The ceiling price would be based on simple average price of all formulations
with market share more than 1% ( as of May-2012)
July 8, 2013 143

Apr-Jun 2013 Earnings Preview
Impact of new policy on Pharma companies
! The companies are required to provide six months prior notice to the
government before discontinuing supply of NLEM drugs. The government
however may direct the company to continue for one more year from the date
of notice
! Retailers’ margin to be revised to 16% (from 20% previously) for non-scheduled
drug
! The current selling price lower than the ceiling price cannot be hiked
We believe that valuation hangover of Indian pharmaceutical companies over
uncertainty and impact on implementation of New NPPA would be limited to one
more quarter to Q2FY14E. It means that focus over growth of domestic formulations
would be back on priority list of the companies from H2FY14E.
Company Domestic form. Revenue % Impact on DF revenue % Impact on overall PBT^
WAP formula SAP Formula WAP formula SAP Formula
Sun Pharma 31570 1.2 1.6 0.9 1.1
Cipla 34230 2.9 4.9 4.5 7.7
Dr. Reddy's Labs 13260 3.9 7.5 2.1 4.0
Ranbaxy 28270 3.6 5 8.5 11.8
Lupin 20110 1 1.3 1.1 1.4
Cadila 25490 3 5.2 5.8 10.0
IPCA 11830 1.5 2.8 3.0 5.6
Torrent Pharma 11500 0.9 1.9 1.6 3.3
Source: AIOCD, PL
^ Excluding one‐off revenues from US and based on PL estimates; Based on FY14/CY13 financials
Stock Performance
Absolute
Relative to Sensex
1M 3M 6M 12M 1M 3M 6M 12M
Aurobindo Pharma 4.4 20.6 (4.0) 66.8 5.0 15.8 (1.9) 56.5
Cadila Healthcare 2.7 5.0 (11.7) 2.9 3.3 0.2 (9.6) (7.4)
Ci pl a 6.2 0.4 (7.7) 20.9 6.8 (4.4) (5.6) 10.6
Dr.Reddy's Laboratories 2.7 16.1 17.8 37.6 3.2 11.3 20.0 27.3
Glenmark Pharmaceuticals 0.6 18.1 6.8 53.7 1.1 13.3 9.0 43.4
Jubilant Life Sciences (22.9) (33.7) (48.6) (31.0) (22.4) (38.5) (46.4) (41.3)
Lupin 8.7 33.7 38.5 51.5 9.2 28.9 40.6 41.2
Ranbaxy Laboratories (9.4) (22.1) (32.6) (32.2) (8.9) (27.0) (30.4) (42.5)
Sun Pharmaceutical Industries 3.0 20.5 38.2 64.5 3.5 15.7 40.3 54.2
Source: Bloomberg, PL Research
July 8, 2013 144

Apr-Jun 2013 Earnings Preview
Summary Financials ‐ Quarterly (Rs m)
Aurobindo Pharma
Ca di l a Hea l thca re
Ci pla
Dr.Reddy's
Laboratories
Glenmark
Pharmaceuticals
Jubilant Life
Sciences
Lupin
Ranbaxy
Laboratories
Sun
Pharmaceutical
Industries
Q1FY14E Q1FY13 YoY gr. (%) Q4FY13 QoQ gr. (%) 12MFY14E 12MFY13 YoY gr. (%)
Sales 16,925 11,974 41.3 15,527 9.0 69,256 57,831 19.8
EBITDA 2,743 1,228 123.4 2,224 23.3 11,150 8,169 36.5
Margins (%) 16.2 10.3 595 bps 14.3 188 bps 16.1 14.1 197 bps
PAT 42 (1,289) (103.3) 1,086 (96.1) 6,388 2,939 117.4
Sales 16,082 15,944 0.9 16,119 (0.2) 69,048 61,554 12.2
EBITDA 2,935 3,456 (15.1) 2,864 2.5 12,014 9,230 30.2
Margins (%) 18.2 21.7 (343)bps 17.8 48 bps 17.4 15.0 241 bps
PAT 1,692 1,948 (13.1) 2,625 (35.5) 7,707 6,553 17.6
Sales 20,009 19,174 4.4 19,062 5.0 91,296 82,793 10.3
EBITDA 4,602 4,990 (7.8) 3,490 31.9 22,940 21,979 4.4
Margins (%) 23.0 26.0 (303)bps 18.3 469 bps 25.1 26.5 (142)bps
PAT 3,282 4,008 (18.1) 2,676 22.7 15,136 15,449 (2.0)
Sales 31,947 25,406 25.7 33,399 (4.3) 130,503 116,266 12.2
EBITDA 7,028 4,996 40.7 7,291 (3.6) 29,233 25,558 14.4
Margins (%) 22.0 19.7 234 bps 21.8 17 bps 22.4 22.0 42 bps
PAT 4,262 3,360 26.8 5,709 (25.3) 19,027 16,772 13.4
Sales 12,199 10,407 17.2 13,355 (8.7) 57,286 50,123 14.3
EBITDA 2,524 2,201 14.7 2,544 (0.8) 11,744 10,100 16.3
Margins (%) 20.7 21.2 (46)bps 19.0 165 bps 20.5 20.1 35 bps
PAT 1,476 783 88.6 1,668 (11.5) 6,833 6,147 11.2
Sales 14,113 12,403 13.8 13,920 1.4 61,880 51,610 19.9
EBITDA 2,399 2,737 (12.3) 2,368 1.3 11,774 10,373 13.5
Margins (%) 17.0 22.1 (506)bps 17.0 (1)bps 19.0 20.1 (107)bps
PAT 760 50 1,417.2 (310) (345.4) 4,055 1,528 165.4
Sales 25,969 22,192 17.0 25,374 2.3 98,552 94,616 4.2
EBITDA 5,583 4,575 22.0 6,102 (8.5) 20,893 20,903 (0.0)
Margins (%) 21.5 20.6 88 bps 24.0 (255)bps 21.2 22.1 (89)bps
PAT 3,623 3,111 16.5 4,081 (11.2) 13,714 13,142 4.4
Sales 27,007 32,285 (16.3) 25,006 8.0 52,013 70,153 (25.9)
EBITDA 2,674 5,113 (47.7) 1,906 40.3 4,579 15,266 (70.0)
Margins (%) 9.9 15.8 (594)bps 7.6 228 bps 8.8 21.8 (1,296)bps
PAT 1,586 (5,857) (127.1) 1,258 26.1 2,843 6,610 (57.0)
Sales 32,603 26,581 22.7 30,870 5.6 138,514 112,999 22.6
EBITDA 15,606 12,169 28.3 12,754 22.4 56,165 49,673 13.1
Margins (%) 47.9 45.8 209 bps 41.3 655 bps 40.5 44.0 (341)bps
PAT (15,347) 9,579 (260.2) 10,116 (251.7) 11,669 30,081 (61.2)
Source: Company Data, PL Research. Note: PAT is adjusted for one‐offs
July 8, 2013 145

Apr-Jun 2013 Earnings Preview
Consolidated Sectoral Data
Key Figures (Rs m)
2013 2014E 2015E
Net Sales 752,391 852,095 974,064
Growth (%) 25.5 13.3 14.3
EBITDA 175,362 206,154 240,483
Margin (%) 23.3 24.2 24.7
PAT 101,837 107,640 159,235
Growth (%) 154.3 5.7 47.9
PE (x) 26.4 25.0 16.9
Quarterly Table (Rs m)
Apr‐Jun'13 Apr‐Jun'12 YoY gr. (%) Jan‐Mar'13 QoQ gr. (%)
Net Sales 196,854 176,366 11.6 192,632 2.2
EBITDA 46,095 41,465 11.2 41,543 11.0
Margin (%) 23.4 23.5 (9)bps 21.6 185 bps
PAT (Excl. Ex Items ) 1,376 15,693 (91.2) 28,908 (95.2)
Note: Revenue, EBITDA and PAT numbers are arrived by totaling corresponding numbers of all companies under our coverage in this
sector.
Aurobindo Pharma
Rating
Buy
Price (Rs ) 193
Target Price (Rs) 282
M/Cap (Rs bn) 56.1
Shares o/s (m) 291.2
Key Figures (Rs m)
Y/e March FY13 FY14E FY15E
Net Sales 57,831 69,256 79,147
EBITDA 8,169 11,150 13,534
Margin (%) 14.1 16.1 17.1
PAT 2,939 6,388 8,128
EPS (Rs) 10.1 21.9 27.9
Growth (%) (337.9) 117.4 27.2
RoE (%) 11.9 22.8 24.2
PE (x) 19.1 8.8 6.9
P / BV (x) 2.2 1.9 1.5
EV / E (x) 10.8 7.9 6.3
We expect Aurobindo Pharma’s Q1FY14E revenue to grow at 40% YoY to INR17bn
led by US generics and formulation growth. US sales growth to be bnenefitted from
strong flow of approvals and favourable currency. With launches of valuable generics
and increasing presence of injectables, the company to increase EBITDA margin by
200bps sequentially to 16% in Q1FY14E. Aurobindo’s high foreign debt and working
capital cycle remains to be strong hangover. With strong USD appreciation, We
expect INR1.5bn forex loss in Q1FY14E.
Quarterly Table (Rs m)
Y/e March
Q1
FY14E
Q1
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Q4
FY13
12M
FY14E
12M
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Net Sales 16,925 11,974 41.3 15,527 69,256 57,831 19.8
EBITDA 2,743 1,228 123.4 2,224 11,150 8,169 36.5
Margin (%) 16.2 10.3 595 bps 14.3 16.1 14.1 197 bps
Reported PAT 42 (1,289) NA 1,086 6,388 2,939 117.4
PAT (Excl. Ex Items) 42 (1,289) NA 1,086 6,388 2,939 117.4
Operating Metrics
US Formulations 5,800 3,283 76.7 4,860 21,469 17,526 22.5
EU & ROW 2,838 1,861 52.5 2,492 11,352 8,843 28.4
ARV formulations 1,753 1,402 20.0 1,828 8,651 7,503 12.2
APIs 6,938 5,871 14.5 6,668 28,587 25,362 10.2
July 8, 2013 146

Apr-Jun 2013 Earnings Preview
Cadila Healthcare
Rating
Reduce
Price (Rs ) 790
Target Price (Rs) 772
M/Cap (Rs bn) 161.8
Shares o/s (m) 204.7
Key Figures (Rs m)
Y/e March FY13 FY14E FY15E
Net Sales 61,554 69,048 76,059
EBITDA 9,230 12,014 13,539
Margin (%) 15.0 17.4 17.8
PAT 6,553 7,707 8,677
EPS (Rs) 32.0 37.6 42.4
Growth (%) 0.4 17.6 12.6
RoE (%) 23.3 23.3 22.2
PE (x) 24.7 21.0 18.7
P / BV (x) 5.3 4.5 3.8
EV / E (x) 19.9 15.5 13.7
Zydus Cadila’s Q4FY14E revenues is likely to grow at 1% YoY due to multiple setbacks
despite having most diversified product portfolio. Increasing competition in
Hospira’s product impact JV sales while Wellness business faces competition from
deep-pocket MNCs in domestic makret. High exposure to new NLEMs to impact sales
in Q2FY14E. We believe the company’s US porftfolio is increasingly older and
become highly price sensitive. This has led to fall in operating margin to 18% and
free cash flows. Foreign currency loans is also another strong hangover in valuation.
Quarterly Table (Rs m)
Y/e March
Q1
FY14E
Q1
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Q4
FY13
12M
FY14E
12M
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Net Sales 16,082 15,944 0.9 16,119 69,048 61,554 12.2
EBITDA 2,935 3,456 (15.1) 2,864 12,014 9,230 30.2
Margin (%) 18.2 21.7 (343)bps 17.8 17.4 15.0 241 bps
Reported PAT 1,692 1,948 (13.1) 2,625 7,707 6,553 17.6
PAT (Excl. Ex Items ) 1,692 1,948 (13.1) 2,625 7,707 6,553 17.6
Operating Metrics
US Formulations 3,770 3,592 5.0 3,882 17,839 15,068 18.4
Domestic Formulation 5,585 5,818 (4.0) 5,708 25,555 23,232 10.0
Consumer Healthcare 1,105 1,033 7.0 1,084 4,271 4,100 4.2
Income from JVs 1,269 1,295 (2.0) 1,153 6,392 5,070 26.1
Cipla
Rating
Accumulate
Price (Rs ) 397
Target Price (Rs) 410
M/Cap (Rs bn) 318.4
Shares o/s (m) 802.9
Cipla’s Q1FY14E revenues are likely to grow at 4% YoY and 5% QoQ due to 5%
reduction in domestic formulations. While exports grows on higher volume from
Indore facility and favourable USD/INR, domestic formulations is likely to be one of
the most impacted in the industry. As per our estimates, Cipla’s exposure to new
NLEM policy to be 30% of its portfolio of products. Core EBITDA margin is likely to be
reduced by 300bps YoY as the company had one-off revenues from Lexapro supply
to Teva in H1FY13.
Key Figures (Rs m)
Y/e March FY13 FY14E FY15E
Net Sales 82,793 91,296 102,039
EBITDA 21,979 22,940 25,264
Margin (%) 26.5 25.1 24.8
PAT 15,449 15,136 16,575
EPS (Rs) 19.2 18.9 20.6
Growth (%) 35.0 (2.0) 9.5
RoE (%) 18.5 15.7 15.0
PE (x) 20.6 21.0 19.2
P / BV (x) 3.5 3.1 2.7
EV / E (x) 14.9 13.9 12.5
Quarterly Table (Rs m)
Y/e March
Q1
FY14E
Q1
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Q4
FY13
12M
FY14E
12M
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Net Sales 20,009 19,174 4.4 19,062 91,296 82,793 10.3
EBITDA 4,602 4,990 (7.8) 3,490 22,940 21,979 4.4
Margin (%) 23.0 26.0 (303)bps 18.3 25.1 26.5 (142)bps
Reported PAT 3,282 4,008 (18.1) 2,676 15,136 15,449 (2.0)
PAT (Excl. Ex Items ) 3,282 4,008 (18.1) 2,676 15,136 15,449 (2.0)
Operating Metrics
India Formulations 9,212 9,697 (5.0) 7,931 40,495 36,814 10.0
Exports 9,570 8,101 18.1 9,536 42,576 37,718 12.9
APIs 1,740 1,685 3.3 1,747 7,329 6,544 12.0
July 8, 2013 147

Apr-Jun 2013 Earnings Preview
Dr. Reddy’s Laboratories
Rating
Accumulate
Price (Rs ) 2,249
Target Price (Rs) 2,414
M/Cap (Rs bn) 381.9
Shares o/s (m) 169.8
Key Figures (Rs m)
Y/e March FY13 FY14E FY15E
Net Sales 116,266 130,503 143,868
EBITDA 25,558 29,233 32,226
Margin (%) 22.0 22.4 22.4
PAT 16,772 19,027 21,051
EPS (Rs) 98.7 112.0 123.9
Growth (%) 28.7 13.4 10.6
RoE (%) 27.3 25.0 23.9
PE (x) 22.8 20.1 18.1
P / BV (x) 5.2 4.8 3.9
EV / E (x) 16.2 13.6 11.9
With new approvals, favourable currency, and base effect in Q1FY13, US generics
would help in 26% YoY growth of Dr Reddy’s Lab in Q1FY14E. Lower impact in
domestic formulations due to exposure of few drugs in new NLEM lists to benefit the
company in Q1FY14E. Among its laggard business verticals, PSAI is gradually ramping
up with increase in order books from major clients across geographies. This would
help augmenting core EBITDA margin by 200bps YoY to 22% in Q1FY14E.
Quarterly Table (Rs m)
Y/e March
Q1
FY14E
Q1
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Q4
FY13
12M
FY14E
12M
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Net Sales 31,947 25,406 25.7 33,399 130,503 116,266 12.2
EBITDA 7,028 4,996 40.7 7,291 29,233 25,558 14.4
Margin (%) 22.0 19.7 234 bps 21.8 22.4 22.0 42 bps
Reported PAT 4,262 3,360 26.8 5,709 19,027 16,772 13.4
PAT (Excl. Ex Items ) 4,262 3,360 26.8 5,709 19,027 16,772 13.4
Operating Metrics
India Formulations 3,621 3,482 4.0 3,481 16,307 14,560 12.0
US Formulations 12,180 7,920 53.8 11,413 41,908 37,846 10.7
Rus sia 4,667 4,167 12.0 4,520 20,110 16,908 18.9
PSAI 7,213 5,527 30.5 10,172 34,305 30,702 11.7
Glenmark Pharmaceuticals
Rating
Reduce
Price (Rs ) 580
Target Price (Rs) 592
M/Cap (Rs bn) 157.1
Shares o/s (m) 270.9
Key Figures (Rs m)
Y/e March FY13 FY14E FY15E
Net Sales 50,123 57,286 67,653
EBITDA 10,100 11,744 14,342
Margin (%) 20.1 20.5 21.2
PAT 6,147 6,833 8,524
EPS (Rs) 22.7 25.2 31.5
Growth (%) 33.4 11.2 24.7
RoE (%) 23.8 19.8 18.8
PE (x) 25.6 23.0 18.4
P / BV (x) 5.7 3.8 3.2
EV / E (x) 18.0 14.5 11.8
Estimating US revenues at USD80/quarter and only INR90mn impact due to new
NLEM, we expect 17% YoY growth for Glenmark in Q1FY14E to Rs12.2bn sales. Its
revenues in the quarter to be led by US generics, EU branded generics and
comparatively less-affected domestic formulaitons at 12% YoY growth. Semi-reg
markets to continue to grow at 35% on the back of aggressive launches. EBITDA
margin to be increased sequentuially to 21% in Q1FY14E from 19% in Q4FY13.
Quarterly Table (Rs m)
Y/e March
Q1
FY14E
Q1
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Q4
FY13
12M
FY14E
12M
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Net Sales 12,199 10,407 17.2 13,355 57,286 50,123 14.3
EBITDA 2,524 2,201 14.7 2,544 11,744 10,100 16.3
Margin (%) 20.7 21.2 (46)bps 19.0 20.5 20.1 35 bps
Reported PAT 1,476 783 88.6 1,668 6,833 6,147 11.2
PAT (Excl. Ex Items ) 1,476 783 88.6 1,668 6,833 6,147 11.2
Operating Metrics
Generics 6,130 5,300 15.7 5,865 26,546 23,116 14.8
US Formulations 4,640 3,924 18.3 4,291 19,267 16,887 14.1
APIs 1,055 1,005 5.0 939 4,882 4,333 12.7
Branded 6,003 5,046 18.9 7,413 31,590 26,515 19.1
India Formulations 3,134 2,798 12.0 3,550 15,060 13,096 15.0
ROW Formulations 1,820 1,348 35.0 2,213 9,747 8,122 20.0
July 8, 2013 148

Apr-Jun 2013 Earnings Preview
Jubilant Life Sciences
Rating
Accumulate
Price (Rs ) 120
Target Price (Rs) 184
M/Cap (Rs bn) 19.1
Shares o/s (m) 159.3
We expect Jubilant Life’s Q1FY14E revenues to grow at 13% YoY to Rs14.1bn, led by
the US and EU generics and APIs. Jubilant’s growth and operating margin however
continues to be impacted by pricing pressure in Life science segment despite
launches of new products in vitamins and PPES business. EBITDA margin remains at
17% (down by 500bps YoY) due to lower price of Life science products. High working
capital and USD600mn forex debt remain to be strong hangover for the company.
Key Figures (Rs m)
Y/e March FY13 FY14E FY15E
Net Sales 51,610 61,880 69,762
EBITDA 10,373 11,774 13,413
Margin (%) 20.1 19.0 19.2
PAT 1,528 4,055 4,781
EPS (Rs ) 9.6 25.5 30.0
Growth (%) 947.4 165.4 17.9
RoE (%) 6.3 16.0 17.1
PE (x) 12.5 4.7 4.0
P / BV (x) 0.8 0.7 0.6
EV / E (x) 4.8 4.4 3.7
Quarterly Table (Rs m)
Y/e March
Q1
FY14E
Q1
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Q4
FY13
12M
FY14E
12M
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Net Sales 14,113 12,403 13.8 13,920 61,880 51,610 19.9
EBITDA 2,399 2,737 (12.3) 2,368 11,774 10,373 13.5
Margin (%) 17.0 22.1 (506)bps 17.0 19.0 20.1 (107)bps
Reported PAT 760 50 1,417.2 (310) 4,055 1,528 165.4
PAT (Excl . Ex Items ) 760 50 1,417.2 (310) 4,055 1,528 165.4
Operating Metrics
Pharmaceuticals 7,182 6,412 12.0 7,020 32,229 26,580 21.3
LSI 6,889 5,991 15.0 6,900 29,650 25,270 17.3
Lupin
Rating
Accumulate
Price (Rs ) 828
Target Price (Rs) 853
M/Cap (Rs bn) 370.6
Shares o/s (m) 447.6
Key Figures (Rs m)
Y/e March FY13 FY14E FY15E
Net Sales 94,616 98,552 131,351
EBITDA 20,903 20,893 28,897
Margin (%) 22.1 21.2 22.0
PAT 13,142 13,714 19,123
EPS (Rs) 29.4 30.6 42.7
Growth (%) 51.2 4.4 39.4
RoE (%) 28.5 23.9 26.9
PE (x) 28.2 27.0 19.4
P / BV (x) 7.1 5.9 4.7
EV / E (x) 18.0 17.7 12.8
We expect Lupin’s Q1FY14E core sales to achieve 17% YoY growth on the back of
incremental US sales and ROW exports. Domestic formulations may see 5%
reduction YoY due to lower offtake post new NLEM and inventory adjustments post
new ceiling prices. We estimate growth in US due to favorable currency, launch of
Suprax drops and increase in approvals for core portfolio. Core EBITDA margin to be
maintained at 21-22% in Q1FY14E. Yasmin sales at the fag end of Q1FY14E, post
favourable US court verdict, may positively surprise to our estimation.
Quarterly Table (Rs m)
Y/e March
Q1
FY14E
Q1
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Q4
FY13
12M
FY14E
12M
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Net Sales 25,969 22,192 17.0 25,374 98,552 94,616 4.2
EBITDA 5,583 4,575 22.0 6,102 20,893 20,903 (0.0)
Margin (%) 21.5 20.6 88 bps 24.0 21.2 22.1 (89)bps
Reported PAT 3,623 3,111 16.5 4,081 13,714 13,142 4.4
PAT (Excl. Ex Items ) 3,623 3,111 16.5 4,081 13,714 13,142 4.4
Operating Metrics
India Formulations 5,901 6,212 (5.0) 5,670 26,938 24,052 12.0
US & EU Formulations 12,383 8,497 45.7 11,810 40,605 39,739 2.2
Japan 3,163 3,329 (5.0) 2,958 12,718 13,246 (4.0)
ROW Formulations 2,113 1,837 15.0 2,534 8,531 8,516 0.2
APIs 2,410 2,317 4.0 2,400 10,362 9,462 9.5
July 8, 2013 149

Apr-Jun 2013 Earnings Preview
Ranbaxy Laboratories
Rating
BUY
Price (Rs ) 343
Target Price (Rs) 559
M/Cap (Rs bn) 145.0
Shares o/s (m) 422.9
Key Figures (Rs m)
Y/e Dec CY12 CY13E CY14E
Net Sales 124,597 135,760 153,311
EBITDA 19,379 30,242 39,882
Margin (%) 15.6 22.3 26.0
PAT 9,228 23,110 30,887
EPS (Rs) 21.8 54.6 73.0
Growth (%) (131.8) 150.4 33.7
RoE (%) 26.5 44.1 38.9
PE (x) 15.7 6.3 4.7
P / BV (x) 3.5 2.3 1.5
EV / E (x) 6.1 3.2 1.8
We expect 14% YoY growth and 4% QoQ growth in core sales of the company in Q2
2013E on the back of favourable currency, traction in Desvenlafaxine (Pristiq) and
Absorica in US. Domestic formulation is likely to be decreased by 3% on DPCO impact
though we expect lower inventory adjustment due to lower sales growth over the
past 12-24 months. Ranbaxy received USD180mn sales in Q2 2012 from one-off sales
of Lipitor and Caduet. Core EBITDA margin to be improved to 9.7-9.9% in Q2 2013E
vs 8% in Q2 2012. The company is likely to report forex loss of INR1.6bn in Q2 2013E.
Quarterly Table (Rs m)
Y/e Dec
Q2
CY13E
Q2
CY12
YoY gr.
(%)
Q1
CY13
H1
CY13E
H1
CY12
YoY gr.
(%)
Net Sales 27,007 32,285 (16.3) 25,006 52,013 70,153 (25.9)
EBITDA 2,674 5,113 (47.7) 1,906 4,579 15,266 (70.0)
Margin (%) 9.9 15.8 (594)bps 7.6 8.8 21.8 (1,296)bps
Reported PAT 1,586 (5,801) (127.3) 1,258 2,843 6,805 (58.2)
PAT (Excl. Ex Items ) 1,586 (5,857) (127.1) 1,258 2,843 6,610 (57.0)
Operating Metrics
US generics 115 255 (54.9) 109 224 656 (65.8)
India Formulation 110 103 6.5 100 209 202 3.6
EU, CIS, Africa 158 146 8.2 158 316 292 8.2
APIs 34 31 9.7 33 67 65 3.5
Sun Pharmaceuticals
Rating
Sell
Price (Rs ) 1,043
Target Price (Rs) 871
M/Cap (Rs bn) 1,079.7
Shares o/s (m) 1,035.6
Key Figures (Rs m)
Y/e March FY13 FY14E FY15E
Net Sales 112,999 138,514 150,875
EBITDA 49,673 56,165 59,386
Margin (%) 44.0 40.5 39.4
PAT 30,081 11,669 41,490
EPS (Rs) 29.0 11.3 40.1
Growth (%) 16.3 (61.2) 255.5
RoE (%) 22.1 7.8 24.7
PE (x) 35.9 92.5 26.0
P / BV (x) 7.2 7.2 5.8
EV / E (x) 20.9 18.6 17.1
We expect Sun Pharma to grow at 23% YoY on the back of base effect in doemstic
formulations and incorporation of URL pharma and DUSA in H2FY13. We estimate
sales of USD14mn for DUSA and USD40mn for URL pharma including incremental
growth post acquisition. Additional medication centers and launch of Doxycycline
hyclate in US to boost core sales of the two companies respectively. Taro sales
however may see flat to negative growth due to competiton in Nystatin group of
products, which contributes 25% of Taro’s revenue.
Quarterly Table (Rs m)
Y/e March
Q1
FY14E
Q1
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Q4
FY13
12M
FY14E
12M
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Net Sales 32,603 26,581 22.7 30,870 138,514 112,999 22.6
EBITDA 15,606 12,169 28.3 12,754 56,165 49,673 13.1
Margin (%) 47.9 45.8 209 bps 41.3 40.5 44.0 (341)bps
Reported PAT (15,347) 9,579 (260.2) 10,116 11,669 30,081 (61.2)
PAT (Excl. Ex Items ) (15,347) 9,579 (260.2) 10,116 11,669 30,081 (61.2)
Operating Metrics
Formulations 30,938 24,954 24.0 29,614 130,795 106,538 22.8
India Formulations 7,170 5,877 22.0 7,797 36,182 29,657 22.0
US Formulations 19,662 15,411 27.6 17,879 74,998 61,538 21.9
ROW Formulations 4,106 3,666 12.0 3,937 19,615 15,344 27.8
APIs 2,062 2,002 3.0 1,699 8,852 7,549 17.3
July 8, 2013 150

Apr-Jun 2013 Earnings Preview
Rupa Shah
rupashah@plindia.com
+91-22-6632 2244
Top picks
NTPC
Power
The situation in the Power segment had improved in March and April 2013 as the
peak power shortage in different parts of the country cooled off marginally,
especially in the Northern and Southern regions; however, it turned negative in May
2013. For the North, the power shortage increased from 6.1% (March 2013) to 7.9%
and for the South, it increased from 16.1% (March 2013) to 17.2%.
Below are the regional deficit positions in the first two months of Q1FY14E:
! South registered a peak power deficit of 15.3% (5,892MW) in April and 16.7%
(6,508MW) in May 2013
! Though negligible, West also increased its deficit of 1.4% in April to 1.8% in May
! North East deficit remained the same at 9.5% during both the months
! North’s peak power shortage remained the same at 5.2% during both the
months
! The power deficit in the East remained the same at 3.5% during both the
months
Power sector experienced a relatively stable merchant tariff rate, average rate being
Rs3.2/unit (3.3/unit in Q4FY13), which indicates that demand has cooled off.
Capacity addition for April 2013 stood at 282MW (Target: 33MWs), down by 83%
YoY. During May 2013, capacity addition stood at 1570MW (Target: 1060MWs).
Capacity addition YTD stands at 1852MWs.
As far as generation in April 2013 goes, units generated stood at 77.5bn (down 3%
QoQ and up 3.9% YoY growth). May saw MoM growth of 8.2% at 83.9bn units and
6.3% YoY. All India PLF stood at 70.7% YTD. The short-term contracts comprised 9.5%
of the generation.
Prices remain a little higher
(Rs / KWHr)
4.5
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
-
4.0
1.6
01-04-2013
05-04-2013
09-04-2013
13-04-2013
17-04-2013
21-04-2013
25-04-2013
29-04-2013
03-05-2013
07-05-2013
11-05-2013
15-05-2013
19-05-2013
23-05-2013
27-05-2013
31-05-2013
04-06-2013
08-06-2013
12-06-2013
16-06-2013
20-06-2013
24-06-2013
28-06-2013
Source: IEX
July 8, 2013 151

Apr-Jun 2013 Earnings Preview
OTC contracts volumes
Apr 29 ‐ May 26 2013
Mus
Less than Rs4/unit 1308
More than Rs4/unit 733
Source: CERC
Average Prices kw/hr
Months Bilateral IEX PXIL
Dec’11 4.17 4.05 4.02
Jan’12 4.43 3.29 3.36
Feb’12 4.45 3.34 3.50
Mar’12 4.74 3.20 4.00
Apr’12 4.40 3.19 4.71
May 12 4.30 3.60 3.89
Jun 12 4.11 4.11 4.10
Jul’12 4.03 4.51 4.54
Aug’12 4.22 3.89 3.53
Sep’12 4.37 2.98 2.34
Oct’12 4.41 4.03 3.76
Nov’12 4.43 3.62 2.89
Dec’12 4.39 3.50 3.08
Jan’13 4.42 3.65 3.66
Feb’13 4.46 2.90 2.40
Mar’13 4.48 3.68 2.76
Apr’13 4.55 3.74 2.71
Source: CERC
Short‐Term Markets ‐ Volumes Scenario
7,000
Bilateral PXIL UI IEX
6,000
5,000
(m units)
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
Feb 10
Mar 10
Apr 10
May 10
Jun 10
Jul 10
Aug 10
Sep 10
Oct 10
Nov 10
Dec 10
Jan 11
Feb 11
Mar 11
Apr 11
May 11
Jun 11
Jul 11
Aug 11
Sep 11
Oct 11
Nov 11
Dec 11
Jan 12
Feb 12
Mar 12
Apr 12
May 12
Jun 12
Jul 12
Aug 12
Sep 12
Oct 12
Nov 12
Dec 12
Jan 13
Feb 13
Mar 13
Apr 13
Source: Industry
July 8, 2013 152

Apr-Jun 2013 Earnings Preview
Sector Insights
CCEA approves the coal price scheme:
The ailing power sector heaved a sigh of relief in June 2013 when the Cabinet
Committee on Economic Affairs (CCEA) approved mechanism for coal supply to
power producers. Under this scheme
:Coal India will have to sign FSA for 78000MWs including tapering linkages
FSA will be relating to domestic coal to the extent of 65%,65%,67% and 75% of the
ACQ starting from FY14 onwards
CIL or the power plants can import their balance coal requirement on a cost-plus
basis. Higher cost of imported coal will be given as a pass-through as per the formula
suggested by CERC. For this, the MOC will give directives for distribution of coal and
MOP will advise CERC and SERC for including this pass-through mechanism in SBDs.
Along with this, nearly 4660MWs may come up before March 31, 2015. In this case,
only if excess coal is available, then CIL will provide them coal.
Power major signs coal pact with Coal major:
NTPC’s board approved the fuel pact with CIL. After a year long wait, this pact was
closed after various contentious issues between the two firms were discussed and
resolved at a meeting of their Senior Executives. Under the FSA, CIL will be eligible
for incentives if it supplies more than 80% of the contracted quantity. Also, NTPC has
agreed to CIL’s decision for a third-party sampling and analysis at the loading end
before Sep 30, 2013. NTPC has close to 20000MWs under construction which will
require coal in the next 3-4 years. About 7000MWs of plants, which came up after
2009, were operating under 60% PLFs which will now go up to 80-85%. Thus, this
development will turn positive for NTPC if the company is successful in adding the
capacity on time.
Debacle for Indian waters in North:
The catastrophic rains leading to the cloud burst and landslides in Uttarakhand and
Himachal Pradesh was ominous to the power sector too, with nearly 3000MWs of
HEPs coming to a standstill either due to silting or damages to barrages and shafts.
Plans affected on account of this were 1) NHPC’s 280MW Dhauliganga power project
2) 394MW Maneri Bhali 3) NJHP 1500MW of SJVN and 4) 1000MWs KWP and 400MWs
Vishnuprayag of Jaiprakash Power Ventures. The rains have also affected 195MW Kashang
project in Kinnaur, the first stage of which is likely to be delayed by about six months. All the
projects are covered under the Industrial All Risk Insurance Policy.
July 8, 2013 153

Apr-Jun 2013 Earnings Preview
Tariff hikes continue, TN gets bonds under FRP
A slew of states resorted to tariff hike partially to meet the working capital needs and as a
compulsion for availing restructuring of loans under FRP. Tariff hike came into effect in June
for UP, where the domestic users would now pay 35-45%. For AP too, tariff hike was to the
tune of 15%, Bihar-7%, MP-2%, Punjab-9%, Rajasthan-15%, Haryana-13% and HP-16%.
Meanwhile, restructuring of Discoms kick-started, with Tamil Nadu getting bonds of
Rs61bn.
Depreciating Rupee should hurt power players
With rupee depreciating almost 7% in the last month and nearly 15% in the last three months,
major power players who have taken USD-denominated loans, will take a hit on imported coal
prices and interest payments on loans. Reliance Power’s total debt is about US$2.8bn, Lanco is
about US$1.4bn, GMR is about US$0.2bn and Adani Power is about US$4bn.
Adani Power and Tata Power gets CERC nod for compensation tariff, still awaiting
final outcome
CERC acknowledged the fact that projects are suffering from losses arising out of
unforeseen events which will render it commercially unviable, if not given a suitable
hike in tariff. Thus, it has decided and directed the parties to the Power Purchase
Agreement (PPA) to work out an amicable solution to compensate for the losses
arising out of the difference between the prices before and after the Indonesian
Regulations were passed (which made erstwhile contracted lower coal prices to be
kept aligned to high spot prices).
Again, the tariff determination process will take into consideration points like profits
from overseas mines, sharing revenue due to sale of power beyond the target
availability etc.
However, two months have passed but the panel has not come up with a formula to
determine the returns.
McCloskey Coal price movement
(US$ / Tonne)
130
120
110
100
90
80
70
May-11
Jun-11
Jul-11
Aug-11
Sep-11
Oct-11
Nov-11
Dec-11
Jan-12
Feb-12
Mar-12
Apr-12
May-12
Jun-12
Jul-12
Aug-12
Sep-12
Oct-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13
Source: Bloomberg, PL Research
Indonesia Coal price movement
(US$ / Tonne)
125
120
115
110
105
100
95
90
85
80
May-11
Jun-11
Jul-11
Aug-11
Sep-11
Oct-11
Nov-11
Dec-11
Jan-12
Feb-12
Mar-12
Apr-12
May-12
Jun-12
Jul-12
Aug-12
Sep-12
Oct-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Source: Bloomberg, PL Research
July 8, 2013 154

Apr-Jun 2013 Earnings Preview
Stock Performance
Absolute
Relative to Sensex
1M 3M 6M 12M 1M 3M 6M 12M
Lanco Infratech (17.6) (33.6) (52.2) (56.9) (17.1) (38.5) (50.1) (67.2)
NHPC (1.3) (15.2) (25.4) (1.8) (0.8) (20.0) (23.3) (12.1)
NTPC (5.0) (0.3) (10.8) (12.7) (4.5) (5.1) (8.7) (23.0)
PTC India (13.0) (19.3) (37.0) (23.9) (12.5) (24.1) (34.9) (34.1)
Reliance Infrastructure (2.3) 7.9 (35.0) (35.4) (1.7) 3.1 (32.9) (45.7)
Reliance Power 2.4 9.8 (26.2) (34.2) 2.9 5.0 (24.1) (44.5)
SJVN (1.5) 5.2 (3.6) 1.8 (0.9) 0.4 (1.5) (8.5)
Tata Power (4.1) (12.0) (22.4) (18.0) (3.5) (16.8) (20.3) (28.3)
Source: Bloomberg, PL Research
Summary Financials ‐ Quarterly (Rs m)
Lanco Infratech
NHPC
NTPC
PTC India
Reliance
Infrastructure
Reliance Power
Source: Company Data, PL Research
Q1FY14E Q1FY13 YoY gr. (%) Q4FY13 QoQ gr. (%) 12MFY14E 12MFY13 YoY gr. (%)
Sales 35,639 34,958 1.9 35,696 (0.2) 165,162 137,388 20.2
EBITDA 6,415 5,857 9.5 9,080 (29.4) 31,822 25,820 23.2
Margins (%) 18.0 16.8 125 bps 25.4 (744)bps 19.3 18.8 47 bps
PAT (2,816) (2,102) 33.9 (2,650) 6.3 (6,998) (11,187) (37.4)
Sales 15,012 14,218 5.6 10,994 36.5 59,116 52,052 13.6
EBITDA 9,007 9,040 (0.4) 6,022 49.6 37,983 32,270 17.7
Margins (%) 60.0 63.6 (358)bps 54.8 522 bps 64.3 62.0 226 bps
PAT 5,778 6,451 (10.4) 3,500 65.1 22,843 19,402 17.7
Sales 164,122 159,600 2.8 164,618 (0.3) 747,123 662,980 12.7
EBITDA 39,389 36,306 8.5 39,065 0.8 185,561 177,381 4.6
Margins (%) 24.0 22.7 125 bps 23.7 27 bps 24.8 26.8 (192)bps
PAT 25,316 24,987 1.3 25,593 (1.1) 106,650 91,858 16.1
Sales 23,371 19,869 17.6 21,987 6.3 101,615 88,562 14.7
EBITDA 409 313 30.7 512 (20.1) 1,865 1,694 10.1
Margins (%) 1.7 1.6 17 bps 2.3 (58)bps 1.8 1.9 (8)bps
PAT 267 222 19.9 280 (4.6) 1,252 1,144 9.4
Sales 52,255 53,411 (2.2) 61,132 (14.5) 226,567 222,276 1.9
EBITDA 6,793 6,298 7.9 7,743 (12.3) 31,366 28,117 11.6
Margins (%) 13.0 11.8 121 bps 12.7 33 bps 13.8 12.6 119 bps
PAT 3,065 4,120 (25.6) 4,934 (37.9) 17,115 17,199 (0.5)
Sales 12,450 11,358 9.6 12,478 (0.2) 63,631 49,266 29.2
EBITDA 4,358 3,649 19.4 4,626 (5.8) 28,178 17,129 64.5
Margins (%) 35.0 32.1 287 bps 37.1 (207)bps 44.3 34.8 952 bps
PAT 2,373 2,395 (0.9) 2,660 (10.8) 11,897 10,114 17.6
July 8, 2013 155

Apr-Jun 2013 Earnings Preview
Summary Financials ‐ Quarterly (Rs m)
Q1FY14E Q1FY13 YoY gr. (%) Q4FY13 QoQ gr. (%) 12MFY14E 12MFY13 YoY gr. (%)
Sales 5,023 5,043 (0.4) 2,133 135.5 18,476 16,821 9.8
SJVN
EBITDA 4,573 4,537 0.8 1,572 191.0 15,894 14,508 9.6
Margins (%) 91.0 90.0 106 bps 73.7 1,736 bps 86.0 86.2 (23)bps
PAT 3,165 3,153 0.4 1,580 100.4 10,555 10,523 0.3
Sales 88,745 72,539 22.3 90,325 (1.7) 392,370 330,254 18.8
Tata Power
EBITDA 17,749 14,129 25.6 18,554 (4.3) 78,845 66,323 18.9
Margins (%) 20.0 19.5 52 bps 20.5 (54)bps 20.1 20.1 1bps
PAT 2,559 2,801 (8.7) 1,791 42.8 10,710 8,548 25.3
Source: Company Data, PL Research
Consolidated Sectoral Data
Key Figures (Rs m)
2013 2014E 2015E
Net Sales 1,559,599 1,774,059 1,980,616
Growth (%) 12.9 13.8 11.6
EBITDA 363,242 411,514 458,036
Margin (%) 23.3 23.2 23.1
PAT 147,602 174,023 195,008
Growth (%) (0.7) 17.9 12.1
PE (x) 13.6 11.5 10.3
Quarterly Table (Rs m)
Apr‐Jun'13 Apr‐Jun'12 YoY gr. (%) Jan‐Mar'13 QoQ gr. (%)
Net Sales 396,617 370,995 6.9 399,363 (0.7)
EBITDA 88,693 80,130 10.7 87,173 1.7
Margin (%) 22.4 21.6 76 bps 21.8 53 bps
PAT (Excl. Ex Items ) 39,707 42,027 (5.5) 37,688 5.4
Note: Revenue, EBITDA and PAT numbers are arrived by totaling corresponding numbers of all companies under our coverage in this
sector.
July 8, 2013 156

Apr-Jun 2013 Earnings Preview
Lanco Infratech
Rating
Accumulate
Price (Rs) 7
Target Price (Rs) 13
M/Cap (Rs bn) 16.7
Shares o/s (m) 2,392.4
Perdaman has ended the litigation with Griffin,however Lanco would have to pay
around AUD9m as settlement charges. Lanco’s gas-based power plants are expected
to report low PLFs of sub-40% on account of drop in gas levels in KGD6. Overall, the
coal supply position has also not improved QoQ much and thus, Amarkantak and
Anapara’s PLFs have not improved.
Key Figures (Rs m)
Y/e March FY13 FY14E FY15E
Net Sales 137,388 165,162 185,004
EBITDA 25,820 31,822 35,518
Margin (%) 18.8 19.3 19.2
PAT (11,187) (6,998) 1,137
EPS (Rs) (4.7) (2.9) 0.5
Growth (%) 897.7 (37.4) (116.3)
RoE (%) (26.7) (20.9) 3.7
PE (x) (1.5) (2.4) 14.7
P / BV (x) 0.5 0.6 0.5
EV / E (x) 14.0 12.6 9.5
Quarterly Table (Rs m)
Y/e March
Q1
FY14E
Q1
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Q4
FY13
12M
FY14E
12M
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Net Sales 35,639 34,958 1.9 35,696 165,162 137,388 20.2
EBITDA 6,415 5,857 9.5 9,080 31,822 25,820 23.2
Margin (%) 18.0 16.8 125 bps 25.4 19.3 18.8 47 bps
Reported PAT (2,816) (4,412) (36.2) (31) (6,998) (11,051) (36.7)
PAT (Excl. Ex Items ) (2,816) (2,102) 33.9 (2,650) (6,998) (11,187) (37.4)
Operating Metrics
Project Dev. (Rs m) 13,412 16,782 (20.1) 14,760 55,327 53,822 2.8
Sale of Energy (Rs m) 18,012 21,305 (15.5) 17,728 103,392 86,626 19.4
Debt (Rs bn) 340 331 2.7 349 388 363 7.0
NHPC
Rating
Accumulate
Price (Rs) 19
Target Price (Rs) 22
M/Cap (Rs bn) 229.4
Shares o/s (m) 12,300.7
We are expecting generation of 6.1bn units, flat YoY. We are factoring in the
generation loss in Dhauliganga HEP in Uttarakhand on account of flooding in the
valleys. New plants like TLDP is still on a stabilising mode and will take time to
contribute meaningfully to the company.
Key Figures (Rs m)
Y/e March FY13 FY14E FY15E
Net Sales 52,052 59,116 65,480
EBITDA 32,270 37,983 44,373
Margin (%) 62.0 64.3 67.8
PAT 19,402 22,843 23,471
EPS (Rs) 1.6 1.9 1.9
Growth (%) (9.3) 17.7 2.7
RoE (%) 7.2 8.0 7.8
PE (x) 11.8 10.0 9.8
P / BV (x) 0.8 0.8 0.7
EV / E (x) 11.3 9.5 8.5
Quarterly Table (Rs m)
Y/e March
Q1
FY14E
Q1
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Q4
FY13
12M
FY14E
12M
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Net Sales 15,012 14,218 5.6 10,994 59,116 52,052 13.6
EBITDA 9,007 9,040 (0.4) 6,022 37,983 32,270 17.7
Margin (%) 60.0 63.6 (358)bps 54.8 64.3 62.0 226 bps
Reported PAT 5,778 6,699 (13.7) 5,833 22,843 23,483 (2.7)
PAT (Excl. Ex Items ) 5,778 6,451 (10.4) 3,500 22,843 19,402 17.7
Operating Metrics
Generation Mus 6,100 6,148 (0.8) 2,480 21,964 18,713 17.4
July 8, 2013 157

Apr-Jun 2013 Earnings Preview
NTPC
Rating
Accumulate
Price (Rs) 140
Target Price (Rs) 179
M/Cap (Rs bn) 1,157.7
Shares o/s (m) 8,245.5
NTPC availed from KFA for a term loan of EUR95m to part finance the capital
expenditure on renovation and retrofitting of Electrostatic Precipitators apart from
Rs20bn from BOI for capex and mining expenditures. The generation in Q1FY14E is
expected to be at Rs59bn; however, lower PLFs will be lower at 84%.
Key Figures (Rs m)
Y/e March FY13 FY14E FY15E
Net Sales 662,980 747,123 826,058
EBITDA 177,381 185,561 196,846
Margin (%) 26.8 24.8 23.8
PAT 91,858 106,650 113,416
EPS (Rs) 11.1 12.9 13.8
Growth (%) 11.2 16.1 6.3
RoE (%) 12.0 12.5 12.2
PE (x) 12.6 10.9 10.2
P / BV (x) 1.4 1.3 1.2
EV / E (x) 8.7 9.1 8.8
Quarterly Table (Rs m)
Y/e March
Q1
FY14E
Q1
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Q4
FY13
12M
FY14E
12M
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Net Sales 164,122 159,600 2.8 164,618 747,123 662,980 12.7
EBITDA 39,389 36,306 8.5 39,065 185,561 177,381 4.6
Margin (%) 24.0 22.7 125 bps 23.7 24.8 26.8 (192)bps
Reported PAT 25,316 24,987 1.3 43,816 106,650 126,193 (15.5)
PAT (Excl. Ex Items ) 25,316 24,987 1.3 25,593 106,650 91,858 16.1
Operating Metrics
Operating( Thermal) 33,882 28,695 18.1 33,882 36,368 33,885 7.3
Avg. Coal PLF (%) 84.0 86.4 (240)bps 86.9 87.0 83.0 396 bps
Generation (Rs m) 59 59 (0.2) 60 254 230 10.3
PTC India
Rating
Accumulate
Price (Rs) 49
Target Price (Rs) 75
M/Cap (Rs bn) 14.5
Shares o/s (m) 296.0
We expect PTC to report 25% growth YoY in unit sales at 5.5bn units and the
realizations are expected to be Rs3.5/unit. Trading margins are expected to be
around 40paise/unit. As the SEBs across states have taken a hike, dues of Rs5bn
outstanding to them are expected to get cleared gradually.
Key Figures (Rs m)
Y/e March FY13 FY14E FY15E
Net Sales 88,562 101,615 125,200
EBITDA 1,694 1,865 2,286
Margin (%) 1.9 1.8 1.8
PAT 1,144 1,252 1,488
EPS (Rs) 3.9 4.2 5.0
Growth (%) 51.4 9.4 18.9
RoE (%) 5.0 5.3 6.1
PE (x) 12.6 11.6 9.7
P / BV (x) 0.6 0.6 0.6
EV / E (x) 6.4 6.3 4.8
Quarterly Table (Rs m)
Y/e March
Q1
FY14E
Q1
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Q4
FY13
12M
FY14E
12M
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Net Sales 23,371 19,869 17.6 21,987 101,615 88,562 14.7
EBITDA 409 313 30.7 512 1,865 1,694 10.1
Margin (%) 1.7 1.6 17 bps 2.3 1.8 1.9 (8)bps
Reported PAT 302 252 19.5 371 1,452 1,288 12.7
PAT (Excl. Ex Items ) 267 222 19.9 280 1,252 1,144 9.4
Operating Metrics
Trading vol. (m units 7,412 6,495 14.1 6,732 32,465 28,579 13.6
July 8, 2013 158

Apr-Jun 2013 Earnings Preview
Reliance Infrastructure
Rating
Accumulate
Price (Rs) 369
Target Price (Rs) 482
M/Cap (Rs bn) 97.0
Shares o/s (m) 263.0
RInfra’s Mumbai Metro sucessfully conducted a trial run for 3kms. The company has
terminated the Delhi Metro SPV on the grounds that DMRC, who has designed and
built the same, has not rectified the substantial defects in the civil structure within
the period prescribed under the Concession Agreement. We expect EPC revenues to
fall 17% YoY. Power sales will see a positive growth on the back of higher tariffs YoY
in NDPL.
Key Figures (Rs m)
Y/e March FY13 FY14E FY15E
Net Sales 222,276 226,567 255,626
EBITDA 28,117 31,366 38,713
Margin (%) 12.6 13.8 15.1
PAT 17,199 17,115 19,523
EPS (Rs) 65.4 65.1 74.2
Growth (%) 18.9 (0.5) 14.1
RoE (%) 6.8 6.3 6.8
PE (x) 5.6 5.7 5.0
P / BV (x) 0.4 0.3 0.3
EV / E (x) 11.8 11.6 9.7
Quarterly Table (Rs m)
Y/e March
Q1
FY14E
Q1
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Q4
FY13
12M
FY14E
12M
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Net Sales 52,255 53,411 (2.2) 61,132 226,567 222,276 1.9
EBITDA 6,793 6,298 7.9 7,743 31,366 28,117 11.6
Margin (%) 13.0 11.8 121 bps 12.7 13.8 12.6 119 bps
Reported PAT 3,065 4,120 (25.6) 7,214 17,115 22,468 (23.8)
PAT (Excl. Ex Items ) 3,065 4,120 (25.6) 4,934 17,115 17,199 (0.5)
Operating Metrics
Electricity (Rs m) 35,412 33,115 6.9 37,284 144 142 1.5
EPC (Rs m) 15,489 18,694 (17.1) 22,964 66 77 (15.0)
Debt (Rs bn) 240 240 0.0 241 288 241 19.6
Reliance Power
Rating
Accumulate
Price (Rs) 71
Target Price (Rs) 79
M/Cap (Rs bn) 200.0
Shares o/s (m) 2,805.1
Post Sasan, UMPP declared COD of its Unit 1 of 660MWs in March 2013. CERC has
ruled that the project has not commenced commercial operations since it did not
meet the set testing parameters. The company has maintained that the MOU has
stated no particular duration in the 1 st year of plant to be declared commercially
operational. We are expecting a 5% growth in generation QoQ.
Key Figures (Rs m)
Y/e March FY13 FY14E FY15E
Net Sales 49,266 63,631 74,641
EBITDA 17,129 28,178 34,124
Margin (%) 34.8 44.3 45.7
PAT 10,114 11,897 12,233
EPS (Rs) 3.6 4.2 4.4
Growth (%) 16.7 17.6 2.8
RoE (%) 5.6 6.2 6.1
PE (x) 19.8 16.8 16.3
P / BV (x) 1.1 1.0 1.0
EV / E (x) 26.2 18.8 18.0
Quarterly Table (Rs m)
Y/e March
Q1
FY14E
Q1
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Q4
FY13
12M
FY14E
12M
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Net Sales 12,450 11,358 9.6 12,478 63,631 49,266 29.2
EBITDA 4,358 3,649 19.4 4,626 28,178 17,129 64.5
Margin (%) 35.0 32.1 287 bps 37.1 44.3 34.8 952 bps
Reported PAT 2,373 2,395 (0.9) 2,660 11,897 10,114 17.6
PAT (Excl. Ex Items ) 2,373 2,395 (0.9) 2,660 11,897 10,114 17.6
Operating Metrics
Units Sold (m) 1,953 2,055 (5.0) 1,833 28,126 7,952 253.7
July 8, 2013 159

Apr-Jun 2013 Earnings Preview
SJVN
Rating
Accumulate
Price (Rs) 20
Target Price (Rs) 23
M/Cap (Rs bn) 83.8
Shares o/s (m) 4,136.6
Power generation in SJVN’s Nathpa Jhakri Hydro Power Station was halted for 2-3
days on account of flooding in the Uttarakhand valley. We are expecting generation
of 2210m units in Q1FY14E, up by 5.6% YoY.
Key Figures (Rs m)
Y/e March FY13 FY14E FY15E
Net Sales 16,821 18,476 23,432
EBITDA 14,508 15,894 20,741
Margin (%) 86.2 86.0 88.5
PAT 10,523 10,555 11,228
EPS (Rs) 2.5 2.6 2.7
Growth (%) (2.7) 0.3 6.4
RoE (%) 13.0 12.1 12.0
PE (x) 8.0 7.9 7.5
P / BV (x) 1.0 0.9 0.9
EV / E (x) 6.1 5.1 4.1
Quarterly Table (Rs m)
Y/e March
Q1
FY14E
Q1
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Q4
FY13
12M
FY14E
12M
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Net Sales 5,023 5,043 (0.4) 2,133 18,476 16,821 9.8
EBITDA 4,573 4,537 0.8 1,572 15,894 14,508 9.6
Margin (%) 91.0 90.0 106 bps 73.7 86.0 86.2 (23)bps
Reported PAT 3,165 3,153 0.4 1,580 10,555 10,523 0.3
PAT (Excl. Ex Items ) 3,165 3,153 0.4 1,580 10,555 10,523 0.3
Operating Metrics
Units Sold Mus 2,210 2,091 5.7 606 6,511 6,778 (3.9)
Capacity MWs 1,500 1,500 0.0 1,500 1,621 1,500 8.1
Tata Power
Rating
Accumulate
Price (Rs) 85
Target Price (Rs) 101
M/Cap (Rs bn) 201.7
Shares o/s (m) 2,373.3
Key Figures (Rs m)
Y/e March FY13 FY14E FY15E
Net Sales 330,254 392,370 425,175
EBITDA 66,323 78,845 85,436
Margin (%) 20.1 20.1 20.1
PAT 8,548 10,710 12,512
EPS (Rs) 3.6 4.5 5.3
Growth (%) (22.3) 25.3 16.8
RoE (%) 6.5 8.3 9.5
PE (x) 23.6 18.8 16.1
P / BV (x) 1.6 1.5 1.5
EV / E (x) 8.2 7.7 7.2
Coal realisations have deteriorated by 4-5% QoQ and 10-12% YoY on an overall basis.
Coal volumes are expected to be flat QoQ at 19.6mt. The company got a nod for the
compensatory tariff hike; however, the final ruling is still awaiting. The company has
signed an agreement with Clean Energy Invest AS and IFC InfraVentures for
developing hydro projects in the state of Georgia, US for the sale of power, primarily
to Turkey. The first phase of 185MWs will start in 2016.
Quarterly Table (Rs m)
Y/e March
Q1
FY14E
Q1
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Q4
FY13
12M
FY14E
12M
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Net Sales 88,745 72,539 22.3 90,325 392,370 330,254 18.8
EBITDA 17,749 14,129 25.6 18,554 78,845 66,323 18.9
Margin (%) 20.0 19.5 52 bps 20.5 20.1 20.1 1 bps
Reported PAT 2,559 1,459 75.3 1,813 10,710 (855) (1,352.0)
PAT (Excl. Ex Items ) 2,559 2,801 (8.7) 1,791 10,710 8,548 25.3
Operating Metrics
Units Sold Mus 3,452 4,227 (18.3) 3,542 18,452 16,002 15.3
Units Generated Mus 3,341 4,259 (21.6) 3,366 15,230 15,770 (3.4)
Avg Real. Rs/pu 4.9 4.8 2.1 4.9 5.5 4.9 12.2
Coal Sales (MTPA) 18.5 16.3 13.5 19.0 72.0 65.0 10.8
July 8, 2013 160

Apr-Jun 2013 Earnings Preview
Kejal Mehta
kejalmehta@plindia.com
+91-22-6632 2246
Pratik Shah
pratikshah@plindia.com
+91-22-6632 2256
Top picks
DLF
Real Estate
The Indian Real estate market is likely to continue to remain sluggish as buyers chose
to keep away from a market that is bearing the brunt of delays in approvals, rising
construction costs and high interest rates. Inventory pile up has been witnessed
across cities. Although property registration data in Mumbai has been strong in the
first half of CY13 on account of the previous festive season launches, sales for the
same period have remained dull. Prices have remained soft; however, in the absence
of a significant correction, volumes have not returned. NCR volumes have witnessed
some spikes and Bengaluru has remained strong on the back of several launches and
a favorable affordibility equation.
The RBI, in its mid-quarter monetary policy review, effected no changes in either the
repo rate or the CRR. Its cautious tone makes monetary easing in the near term
uncertain, which is not positive for the real estate sector as it is unlikely that lending
rates would come down in a hurry.
Companies are cautiously optimistic about the environment, given the prevailing
interest rates & liquidity crunch. The slate of launches is expected to be soft as
companies steadily repay debt & repair their balance sheets.
BSE Realty Index was down 19% for the April-June period, while the SENSEX was up
3% for the same period.
Relative Regional Stock performance
Mumbai Realty (Ex DB Realty) Delhi Realty South Realty
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Jun-11
Aug-11
Oct-11
Dec-11
Feb-12
Apr-12
Jun-12
Aug-12
Oct-12
Dec-12
Feb-13
Apr-13
Jun-13
Source: Bloomberg, PL Research
July 8, 2013 161

Apr-Jun 2013 Earnings Preview
Residential
Bengaluru's residential Real estate market remains resilient despite global turmoil
driven by demand for mid-end homes. The city recorded the highest number of
launches in Q1FY13, whereas all other major cities saw a decline in new launches
compared to the previous quarter.
Mumbai Residential market has been experiencing some levels of activity as new
launches during CY12 have increased competition amidst low demand, thus, leading
to softening prices in a few projects. Sales registrations, through the first five months
of CY13, have held strong. Post the strong spurt in March 2013, where sales
registration hit a 31-month high, April and May witnessed a small monthly decline of
8% and 6%, respectively; however, grew 24% and 15%, respectively, on a YoY basis.
However, given the lack of launches in the last few months and the expected
slowness in the same during the monsoon season, we expect sales to gain traction in
Q4CY13.
(Note: Registrations data includes Residential and Commercial properties)
Registration of Sale Deed agreements in Mumbai
YoY% growth in Sale Deed registrations
(nos)
8,000
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
-
Mar 11
Apr 11
May 11
Jun 11
Jul 11
Aug 11
Sep 11
Oct 11
Nov 11
Dec 11
Jan 12
Feb 12
Mar 12
Apr 12
May 12
Jun 12
Jul 12
Aug 12
Sep 12
Oct 12
Nov 12
Dec 12
Jan 13
Feb 13
Mar 13
Apr 13
May 13
(YoY gr.)
30%
20%
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
-30%
-40%
-30%
-30%
-1%
-27%
-31%
-25%
-22%
-25%
-20%-9%
-13%
-11%
-1%5%
-1%
3%
-6%
-2%
9%
-11%
8%5%
26%
16%
20%
24%
15%
Mar 11
Apr 11
May 11
Jun 11
Jul 11
Aug 11
Sep 11
Oct 11
Nov 11
Dec 11
Jan 12
Feb 12
Mar 12
Apr 12
May 12
Jun 12
Jul 12
Aug 12
Sep 12
Oct 12
Nov 12
Dec 12
Jan 13
Feb 13
Mar 13
Apr 13
May 13
Source: DGR Mumbai, PL Research
Source: DGR Mumbai, PL Research
July 8, 2013 162

Apr-Jun 2013 Earnings Preview
Registration of Lease Agreements in Mumbai
YoY% growth in Lease Agreement registrations
(nos)
14,000
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
-
Mar 11
Apr 11
May 11
Jun 11
Jul 11
Aug 11
Sep 11
Oct 11
Nov 11
Dec 11
Jan 12
Feb 12
Mar 12
Apr 12
May 12
Jun 12
Jul 12
Aug 12
Sep 12
Oct 12
Nov 12
Dec 12
Jan 13
Feb 13
Mar 13
Apr 13
May 13
(YoY gr.)
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
-20%
-40%
36%
2%
10%
10%
8%
6%
23%31%
64%
11%
9%
6%
5%11%
15%
13%
4%
10%
1%
-2%
-25%
6%
21%
19%
7%
14%
6%
Mar 11
Apr 11
May 11
Jun 11
Jul 11
Aug 11
Sep 11
Oct 11
Nov 11
Dec 11
Jan 12
Feb 12
Mar 12
Apr 12
May 12
Jun 12
Jul 12
Aug 12
Sep 12
Oct 12
Nov 12
Dec 12
Jan 13
Feb 13
Mar 13
Apr 13
May 13
Source: DGR Mumbai, PL Research
Source: DGR Mumbai, PL Research
Mumbai high‐end segment rentals weak
South South central Central
0%
-1%
-1%
-2%
-2%
-3%
-3%
-4%
-4%
-5%
0%
-2%
0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
-3%
-4%
Q3 2011 Q4 2011 Q1 2012 Q2 2012 Q3 2012 Q4 2012 Q1 2013
Source: PL Research
QoQ (%) change in Mumbai mid‐segment prices
15%
South Central North
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
-15%
Q4'08
Q1'09
Q2'09
Q3'09
Q4'09
Q1'10
Q2'10
Q3'10
Q4'10
Q1'11
Q2'11
Q3'11
Q4'11
Q1'12
Q2'12
Q3'12
Q4'12
Q1'13
Source: Cushman & Wakefield
July 8, 2013 163

Apr-Jun 2013 Earnings Preview
QoQ (%) change in Gurgaon and Noida mid‐segment prices
25%
Gurgaon
Noida
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
-15%
-20%
Q4'08
Q1'09
Q2'09
Q3'09
Q4'09
Q1'10
Q2'10
Q3'10
Q4'10
Q1'11
Q2'11
Q3'11
Q4'11
Q1'12
Q2'12
Q3'12
Q4'12
Source: Cushman & Wakefield
QoQ (%) change in Mumbai high‐end prices
20%
15%
South Central North
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
-15%
-20%
Q4'08
Q1'09
Q2'09
Q3'09
Q4'09
Q1'10
Q2'10
Q3'10
Q4'10
Q1'11
Q2'11
Q3'11
Q4'11
Q1'12
Q2'12
Q3'12
Q4'12
Q1'13
Source: Cushman & Wakefield
QoQ (%) change in NCR high‐end prices
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
-15%
South west South east South central Central
Q1'09
Q2'09
Q3'09
Q4'09
Q1'10
Q2'10
Q3'10
Q4'10
Q1'11
Q2'11
Q3'11
Q4'11
Q1'12
Q2'12
Q3'12
Q4'12
Source: Cushman & Wakefield
July 8, 2013 164

Apr-Jun 2013 Earnings Preview
Bengaluru Inventory inches QoQ
Bengaluru sales dip
(m sq. ft.)
100
80
60
40
20
-
69 66 66 63
67 66
90
85 82
72
65
71 73
(m sq. ft.)
18.0
16.0
14.0
12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
-
10.7 9.9
8.4
6.9
9.0
6.9
16.4 15.6
14.2
12.2
10.6
10.2
9.2
Mar-10
Jun-10
Sep-10
Dec-10
Mar-11
Jun-11
Sep-11
Dec-11
Mar-12
Jun-12
Sep-12
Dec-12
Mar-13
Mar-10
Jun-10
Sep-10
Dec-10
Mar-11
Jun-11
Sep-11
Dec-11
Mar-12
Jun-12
Sep-12
Dec-12
Mar-13
Source: Liases Foras, PL Research
Source: Liases Foras, PL Research
Mumbai inventory continues to inch up
(m sq. ft.)
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
-
80
96 105 109 114 116 120 120 130 145 150
131 136
Mumbai sales volumes recover slightly
(m sq. ft.)
14.0
12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
-
Mar-10
Jun-10
Sep-10
Dec-10
Mar-11
Jun-11
Sep-11
Dec-11
Mar-12
12.0
12.7
12.0
10.6
9.1
8.2
9.2
7.6
9.1
9.9
9.8
10.3
10.5
Jun-12
Sep-12
Dec-12
Mar-13
Mar-10
Jun-10
Sep-10
Dec-10
Mar-11
Jun-11
Sep-11
Dec-11
Mar-12
Jun-12
Sep-12
Dec-12
Mar-13
Source: Liases Foras, PL Research
Source: Liases Foras, PL Research
Delhi inventory on the increase
Delhi sales rebound
(m sq. ft.)
350
300
250
200
150
100
162 161 187 191 221 242 239 255 264 249 268 283 288
35.0
30.0
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
31.0
27.3
23.2 25.9 27.0
25.9 25.5
20.5
21.9 22.8
21.3 20.5
18.0
50
5.0
-
-
Mar-10
Jun-10
Sep-10
Dec-10
Mar-11
Jun-11
Sep-11
Dec-11
Mar-12
Jun-12
Sep-12
Dec-12
Mar-13
Mar-10
Jun-10
Sep-10
Dec-10
Mar-11
Jun-11
Sep-11
Dec-11
(m sq. ft.)
Mar-12
Jun-12
Sep-12
Dec-12
Mar-13
Source: Liases Foras, PL Research
Source: Liases Foras, PL Research
July 8, 2013 165

Apr-Jun 2013 Earnings Preview
Commercial
The Indian Commercial market continues to reel under pressure, given the subdued
overall take up at 4.8msq.ft for Q1FY13, a sharp drop of 29% QoQ. The subdued take
up reported in Q1 is an indication of the slow Indian economy, coupled with a
lacklustre global economy.
Mumbai’s take-up has remained flattish at 1.25m sq.ft in Q1FY13, an increase of 3%
QoQ. Lease rentals have corrected sharply in the city leading to developers
converting commercial properties to residential. Although lease registration
numbers have been very strong, with April 2013 displaying the highest number that
we have witnessed (north of 12k), we would attribute this more towards potential
home buyers opting for the option on account of the financial viability. (Lease
registration numbers include both commercial and residential leases).
Bengaluru market’s take up of office space dipped by 2.4% QoQ. The upcoming
quarters are expected to witness moderate take up, given the subdued transaction
activity & high availability at 13.4%.
The delivery timelines of new projects continue to be revised as a result of the
economic slowdown & increase in construction cost. Cautious business sentiments
have affected demand across the country. Corporate leasing is expected to remain
muted.
Mumbai Rental Demand (msf) and Availability (%)
Take up (msf)
Availability (%) (RHS)
25
24
23
22
21
20
19
18
21
22 22
20
22
23 24 24
23 22.9 22.7
23
21.9
2.1 1.9 1.9 2.1 1.3 2.1 1.0 1.2 1.1 0.4 0.9 1.2 1.3
Q1
2010
Q2
2010
Q3
2010
Q4
2010
Q1
2011
Q2
2011
Q3
2011
Q4
2011
Q1
2012
Q2
2012
Q3
2012
Q4
2012
Q1
2013
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
-
Source: DTZ, PL Research
July 8, 2013 166

Apr-Jun 2013 Earnings Preview
Bengaluru Rental Demand (msf) and Availability (%)
Take up (msf)
Availability (%) (RHS)
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
26 26 26
1.4
1.6
1.9
23
2.2
21 20
2.4
1.7
18 18 16
3.3
2.4
3.0
15 14 13.1 13.8 13.4
3.6
1.8
3.0
1.6
1.4
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
-
Q4 2009
Q1 2010
Q2 2010
Q3 2010
Q4 2010
Q1 2011
Q2 2011
Q3 2011
Q4 2011
Q1 2012
Q2 2012
Q3 2012
Q4 2012
Q1 2013
Source: DTZ, PL Research
NCR Rental Demand (msf) and Availability (%)
Take up (msf)
Availability (%) (RHS)
35
34
33
32
31
30
29
28
32 32 32
33
34
32
3231
31.2
30.1 30.2
1.0 1.0 1.4 1.9 1.2 2.0 1.0 1.6 0.9 1.7 1.2 1.1
Q1
2010
Q2
2010
Q3
2010
Q4
2010
Q1
2011
Q2
2011
Q3
2011
Q4
2011
Q1
2012
Q2
2012
Q3
2012
31
Q4
2012
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
-
Source: DTZ, PL Research
Stock Performance
Absolute
Relative to Sensex
1M 3M 6M 12M 1M 3M 6M 12M
Anant Raj Industries (15.5) (12.7) (46.2) (8.7) (14.9) (17.5) (44.1) (19.0)
DLF (11.8) (25.0) (26.1) (17.1) (11.2) (29.8) (24.0) (27.4)
Housing Development & Infrastructure (8.0) (20.8) (68.4) (58.1) (7.5) (25.6) (66.3) (68.4)
Oberoi Realty (6.2) (20.0) (30.4) (14.9) (5.7) (24.8) (28.2) (25.2)
Peninsula Land (8.7) (12.0) (48.7) 3.0 (8.1) (16.8) (46.6) (7.3)
Prestige Estates Projects (9.3) (11.4) (13.7) 25.2 (8.7) (16.2) (11.6) 14.9
Sobha Developers (11.1) (4.8) (12.2) 2.6 (10.6) (9.6) (10.1) (7.7)
Unitech (14.2) (14.8) (46.7) (15.5) (13.7) (19.6) (44.6) (25.8)
Source: Bloomberg, PL Research
July 8, 2013 167

Apr-Jun 2013 Earnings Preview
Summary Financials ‐ Quarterly
Anant Raj
Industries
DLF
Housing
Development &
Infrastructure
Oberoi Realty
Peninsula Land
Pres tige Estates
Projects
Sobha Developers
Unitech
Source: Company Data, PL Research
Q1FY14E Q1FY13 YoY gr. (%) Q4FY13 QoQ gr. (%) 12MFY14E 12MFY13 YoY gr. (%)
Sales 852 915 (6.9) 1,273 (33.0) 6,123 5,586 9.6
EBITDA 372 470 (20.8) 386 (3.7) 3,123 1,605 94.6
Margins (%) 43.7 51.4 (770)bps 30.4 1,331 bps 51.0 28.7 2,227 bps
PAT 254 333 (23.7) 431 (41.0) 2,037 1,051 93.8
Sales 23,175 21,977 5.5 22,256 4.1 101,761 77,728 30.9
EBITDA 8,807 10,670 (17.5) 7,258 21.3 37,143 26,262 41.4
Margins (%) 38.0 48.6 (1,055)bps 32.6 539 bps 36.5 33.8 271 bps
PAT 2,123 2,943 (27.9) 501 323.7 8,487 7,623 11.3
Sales 1,395 2,012 (30.7) 1,427 (2.3) 14,322 10,252 39.7
EBITDA 825 1,577 (47.7) 1,049 (21.3) 5,623 6,723 (16.4)
Margins (%) 59.1 78.4 (1,927)bps 73.5 (1,434)bps 39.3 65.6 (2,631)bps
PAT 405 1,054 (61.6) (2,800) (114.5) 2,805 5,156 (45.6)
Sales 2,750 1,999 37.6 3,039 (9.5) 11,557 10,476 10.3
EBITDA 1,565 1,139 37.4 1,779 (12.0) 6,685 6,121 9.2
Margins (%) 56.9 57.0 (7)bps 58.5 (164)bps 57.8 58.4 (59)bps
PAT 1,280 1,008 27.0 1,451 (11.8) 5,215 5,049 3.3
Sales 805 1,334 (39.7) 1,060 (24.1) 6,549 7,412 (11.6)
EBITDA 220 465 (52.7) 74 198.1 2,217 1,966 12.8
Margins (%) 27.3 34.9 (753)bps 7.0 2,037 bps 33.9 26.5 734 bps
PAT 326 419 (22.3) 358 (9.0) 1,667 1,953 (14.7)
Sales 5,560 2,192 153.7 5,597 (0.7) 26,862 19,476 37.9
EBITDA 1,585 704 125.2 1,321 20.0 7,877 5,791 36.0
Margins (%) 28.5 32.1 (360)bps 23.6 491 bps 29.3 29.7 (41)bps
PAT 1,090 493 121.1 890 22.4 3,892 2,860 36.1
Sales 5,350 4,332 23.5 5,867 (8.8) 26,369 18,645 41.4
EBITDA 1,470 1,198 22.7 1,626 (9.6) 7,719 5,483 40.8
Margins (%) 27.5 27.7 (18)bps 27.7 (24)bps 29.3 29.4 (13)bps
PAT 578 450 28.4 696 (17.0) 3,803 2,172 75.1
Sales 6,852 4,077 68.0 8,483 (19.2) 26,830 24,405 9.9
EBITDA 878 547 60.4 797 10.1 5,060 3,270 54.7
Margins (%) 12.8 13.4 (61)bps 9.4 341 bps 18.9 13.4 546 bps
PAT 745 459 62.1 1,070 (30.4) 3,116 3,130 (0.5)
July 8, 2013 168

Apr-Jun 2013 Earnings Preview
Consolidated Sectoral Data
Key Figures (Rs m)
2013 2014E 2015E
Net Sales 173,981 220,373 248,266
Growth (%) (4.3) 26.7 12.7
EBITDA 57,219 75,446 86,971
Margin (%) 32.9 34.2 35.0
PAT 28,995 31,022 39,682
Growth (%) (12.2) 7.0 27.9
PE (x) 19.3 18.0 14.1
Quarterly Table (Rs m)
Apr‐Jun'13 Apr‐Jun'12 YoY gr. (%) Jan‐Mar'13 QoQ gr. (%)
Net Sales 46,739 38,838 20.3 49,001 (4.6)
EBITDA 15,721 16,770 (6.3) 14,290 10.0
Margin (%) 33.6 43.2 (954)bps 29.2 447 bps
PAT (Excl. Ex Items) 6,800 7,159 (5.0) 2,598 161.8
Note: Revenue, EBITDA and PAT numbers are arrived by totaling corresponding numbers of all companies under our coverage in this
sector.
Anant Raj Industries
Rating
Accumulate
Price (Rs) 51
Target Price (Rs) 81
M/Cap (Rs bn) 15.1
Shares o/s (m) 295.1
Anant Raj received licenses for two commercial projects in Sector 63 and is
extremely close to receiving a license for a large group housing project in the same
sector, the launch of which shall take place during Diwali this year. The estimated
revenues from this project is in excess of Rs25bn. In terms of sales, we expect this
quarter to be dull as most of the inventory at its ongoing projects has been
exhausted. Madela is fully sold out, Maceo is 70% sold and Neema Rana is 90% sold.
On account of this, revenues are also likely to be subdued.
Key Figures (Rs m)
Y/e March FY13 FY14E FY15E
Net Sales 5,586 6,123 7,699
EBITDA 1,605 3,123 3,927
Margin (%) 28.7 51.0 51.0
PAT 1,051 2,037 2,547
EPS (Rs) 3.6 6.9 8.6
Growth (%) (11.7) 93.8 25.0
RoE (%) 2.7 5.1 6.0
PE (x) 14.3 7.4 5.9
P / BV (x) 0.4 0.4 0.3
EV / E (x) 15.7 9.2 7.0
Quarterly Table (Rs m)
Y/e March
Q1
FY14E
Q1
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Q4
FY13
12M
FY14E
12M
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Net Sales 852 915 (6.9) 1,273 6,123 5,586 9.6
EBITDA 372 470 (20.8) 386 3,123 1,605 94.6
Margin (%) 43.7 51.4 (770)bps 30.4 51.0 28.7 2,227 bps
Reported PAT 245 323 (24.0) (352) 2,037 1,068 90.7
PAT (Excl. Ex Items) 254 333 (23.7) 431 2,037 1,051 93.8
Operating Metrics
Rental received (Rs m) 200 198 1.1 200 1,020 1,358 (24.9)
Project Sales (Rs m) 650 673 (3.5) 873 4,753 3,318 43.2
July 8, 2013 169

Apr-Jun 2013 Earnings Preview
DLF
Rating
Accumulate
Price (Rs) 175
Target Price (Rs) 234
M/Cap (Rs bn) 310.9
Shares o/s (m) 1,774.8
Key Figures (Rs m)
Y/e March FY13 FY14E FY15E
Net Sales 77,728 101,761 107,609
EBITDA 26,262 37,143 39,923
Margin (%) 33.8 36.5 37.1
PAT 7,623 8,487 11,024
EPS (Rs) 4.5 4.8 6.2
Growth (%) (37.8) 6.5 29.9
RoE (%) 3.0 3.2 3.9
PE (x) 39.0 36.6 28.2
P / BV (x) 1.2 1.1 1.1
EV / E (x) 21.3 14.7 13.7
With the vacation of the stay order on the ‘Crest’ project by the SC, the project
seems to be on track. The company sold 250 flats at a rate of Rs18k/sq.ft at the
project within a couple of days of the launch. The quarter also witnessed a plotted
launch in the New Gurgaon area as well as release of additional area for sale at
Lucknow and Mullanpur. As per the management, the windmill transaction shall be
completed by early July and shall accrue Rs8bn. With regards to the Aman proceeds,
we still do not have any clarity.
Quarterly Table (Rs m)
Y/e March
Q1
FY14E
Q1
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Q4
FY13
12M
FY14E
12M
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Net Sales 23,175 21,977 5.5 22,256 101,761 77,728 30.9
EBITDA 8,807 10,670 (17.5) 7,258 37,143 26,262 41.4
Margin (%) 38.0 48.6 (1,055)bps 32.6 36.5 33.8 271 bps
Reported PAT 2,123 2,928 (27.5) (42) 8,487 7,119 19.2
PAT (Excl. Ex Items) 2,123 2,943 (27.9) 501 8,487 7,623 11.3
Operating Metrics
Development Business
Sales (Msf) 2.6 1.3 94.0 2.0 7.0 7.2 (3.2)
Annuity Business
Leases (Msf) 0.3 0.3 (13.8) 0.2 3.0 1.1 163.2
HDIL
Rating
Reduce
Price (Rs) 37
Target Price (Rs) 24
M/Cap (Rs bn) 15.6
Shares o/s (m) 419.0
Since five projects are likely to get completed in FY14, we expect majority of the
revenues from these projects. Overall the situation remains bleak with the
termination of the MIAL project and slowness in debtor realization of the previously
undertaken FSI sales. We also expect revenues to be contributed from FSI sales at
Virar and Vasai.
Key Figures (Rs m)
Y/e March FY13 FY14E FY15E
Net Sales 10,252 14,322 17,288
EBITDA 6,723 5,623 7,605
Margin (%) 65.6 39.3 44.0
PAT 5,156 2,805 4,307
EPS (Rs) 12.3 6.7 10.3
Growth (%) (36.9) (45.6) 53.5
RoE (%) 5.0 2.7 4.0
PE (x) 3.0 5.6 3.6
P / BV (x) 0.2 0.1 0.1
EV / E (x) 8.1 10.5 7.9
Quarterly Table (Rs m)
Y/e March
Q1
FY14E
Q1
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Q4
FY13
12M
FY14E
12M
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Net Sales 1,395 2,012 (30.7) 1,427 14,322 10,252 39.7
EBITDA 825 1,577 (47.7) 1,049 5,623 6,723 (16.4)
Margin (%) 59.1 78.4 (1,927)bps 73.5 39.3 65.6 (2,631)bps
Reported PAT 405 1,054 (61.6) (2,800) 2,805 736 281.0
PAT (Excl. Ex Items) 405 1,054 (61.6) (2,800) 2,805 5,156 (45.6)
Operating Metrics
FSI Sales (Rs m) 265 2,012 (86.8) 357 7,500 8,930 (16.0)
July 8, 2013 170

Apr-Jun 2013 Earnings Preview
Oberoi Realty
Rating
Accumulate
Price (Rs) 205
Target Price (Rs) 274
M/Cap (Rs bn) 67.1
Shares o/s (m) 328.2
We expect a drop in sales, firstly on account of a general slowdown leading to sales
decline at Exquisite, coupled with a delay in receiving the IOD for Esquire and
secondly on account of exhaustion of inventory at Splendour. On the commercial
side, Commerz II remains untenanted due to the slowdown in commercial offtake. In
fact, the company is considering options to convert this project into a residential
complex. Media reports suggest a tie-up with hotel chain ‘Ritz Carlton’ for the Worli
Oasis project. However, the company is yet to confirm the same. Environmental
clearance issue at Mulund remains status quo on account of SC being on a vacation.
Key Figures (Rs m)
Y/e March FY13 FY14E FY15E
Net Sales 10,476 11,557 16,778
EBITDA 6,121 6,685 9,803
Margin (%) 58.4 57.8 58.4
PAT 5,049 5,215 7,308
EPS (Rs) 15.4 15.9 22.3
Growth (%) 9.0 3.3 40.1
RoE (%) 12.8 12.0 15.3
PE (x) 13.3 12.9 9.2
P / BV (x) 1.6 1.5 1.3
EV / E (x) 9.2 8.7 6.2
Quarterly Table (Rs m)
Y/e March
Q1
FY14E
Q1
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Q4
FY13
12M
FY14E
12M
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Net Sales 2,750 1,999 37.6 3,039 11,557 10,476 10.3
EBITDA 1,565 1,139 37.4 1,779 6,685 6,121 9.2
Margin (%) 56.9 57.0 (7)bps 58.5 57.8 58.4 (59)bps
Reported PAT 1,280 1,008 27.0 1,452 5,215 5,049 3.3
PAT (Excl. Ex Items) 1,280 1,008 27.0 1,451 5,215 5,049 3.3
Operating Metrics
Sales Volume (msf) 0.1 0.1 (19.3) 0.1 0.9 0.5 77.8
Sales Value (Rs m) 1,650 2,076 (20.5) 2,227 19,939 8,687 129.5
Sales Realization (Rs/sf) 16,500 16,761 (1.6) 18,813 22,594 17,500 29.1
Peninsula Land
Rating
Accumulate
Price (Rs) 40
Target Price (Rs) 52
M/Cap (Rs bn) 11.1
Shares o/s (m) 279.5
At Peninsula Business Park, the company has a small inventory of ~Rs2bn to be sold.
Besides, PENL currently has four projects under construction, which includes their
developments at Nashik, Goa, Khandala and Pune. The company has sold 0.57m sq.ft
across these projects, amounting to ~Rs2.5bn. Currently, only Nashik has reached
the revenue recognition threshold, while the other three are likely to reach the
target during the course of the financial year.
Key Figures (Rs m)
Y/e March FY13 FY14E FY15E
Net Sales 7,412 6,549 7,310
EBITDA 1,966 2,217 2,561
Margin (%) 26.5 33.9 35.0
PAT 1,953 1,667 2,133
EPS (Rs) 7.0 6.0 7.6
Growth (%) 29.0 (14.7) 27.9
RoE (%) 12.3 9.8 11.7
PE (x) 5.7 6.6 5.2
P / BV (x) 0.7 0.6 0.6
EV / E (x) 8.6 7.4 6.5
Quarterly Table (Rs m)
Y/e March
Q1
FY14E
Q1
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Q4
FY13
12M
FY14E
12M
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Net Sales 805 1,334 (39.7) 1,060 6,549 7,412 (11.6)
EBITDA 220 465 (52.7) 74 2,217 1,966 12.8
Margin (%) 27.3 34.9 (753)bps 7.0 33.9 26.5 734 bps
Reported PAT 326 419 (22.3) 358 1,667 1,953 (14.7)
PAT (Excl. Ex Items) 326 419 (22.3) 358 1,667 1,953 (14.7)
Operating Metrics
Peninsula Business Park 750 1,210 (38.0) 900 360 6,100 (94.1)
Ashok Gardens — 50 — 55 — — —
Others 55 80 (31.3) 105 — 394 —
July 8, 2013 171

Apr-Jun 2013 Earnings Preview
Prestige Estate Projects
Rating
Accumulate
Price (Rs) 152
Target Price (Rs) 200
M/Cap (Rs bn) 53.3
Shares o/s (m) 350.0
The company had four launches during the quarter which have done pretty well for
them. We expect sales in value and volume terms to witness strong sequential
growth and remain flat on YoY basis. Further, Prestige acquired two new projects;
one in Bengaluru and one in Hyderabad, both through the JD model. The company
remains confident of two large Chennai launches in the upcoming quarter. Revenue
recognition during the quarter is also expected to remain strong.
Key Figures (Rs m)
Y/e March FY13 FY14E FY15E
Net Sales 19,476 26,862 34,823
EBITDA 5,791 7,877 10,416
Margin (%) 29.7 29.3 29.9
PAT 2,860 3,892 5,569
EPS (Rs) 8.2 11.1 15.9
Growth (%) 224.6 36.1 43.1
RoE (%) 11.7 13.5 17.2
PE (x) 18.6 13.7 9.6
P / BV (x) 1.9 1.8 1.5
EV / E (x) 12.5 9.2 6.9
Quarterly Table (Rs m)
Y/e March
Q1
FY14E
Q1
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Q4
FY13
12M
FY14E
12M
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Net Sales 5,560 2,192 153.7 5,597 26,862 19,476 37.9
EBITDA 1,585 704 125.2 1,321 7,877 5,791 36.0
Margin (%) 28.5 32.1 (360)bps 23.6 29.3 29.7 (41)bps
Reported PAT 1,090 493 121.1 890 3,892 2,860 36.1
PAT (Excl. Ex Items) 1,090 493 121.1 890 3,892 2,860 36.1
Operating Metrics
Sales (m sqft) 2.0 2.0 (0.7) 0.9 7.9 6.0 32.5
Sales Value (Rs m) 9,525 10,105 (5.7) 5,416 43,666 31,221 39.9
Avg Realization (Rs/sqft) 4,704 4,953 (5.0) 6,085 5,503 5,212 5.6
Sobha Developers
Rating
Accumulate
Price (Rs) 342
Target Price (Rs) 418
M/Cap (Rs bn) 33.5
Shares o/s (m) 98.1
On a sequential basis, we expect sales to be subdued, being a seasonally weak
quarter. However, on a YoY basis, we expect the numbers to display growth. The
company had one plotted launch in Bengaluru, ‘Sobha Landscape’ which is the
second phase of the previously launched project, ‘Sobha Canvas’. It has also
commenced construction of its commercial property at St. Marks Road, Bengaluru.
The ‘Indraprastha’ project, that was launched in Mar 2013, is also expected to
contribute to sales in Q1.
Key Figures (Rs m)
Y/e March FY13 FY14E FY15E
Net Sales 18,645 26,369 27,528
EBITDA 5,483 7,719 8,305
Margin (%) 29.4 29.3 30.2
PAT 2,172 3,803 4,125
EPS (Rs) 22.1 38.8 42.1
Growth (%) 5.4 75.1 8.5
RoE (%) 10.5 16.5 15.7
PE (x) 15.4 8.8 8.1
P / BV (x) 1.6 1.4 1.2
EV / E (x) 8.4 5.8 5.3
Quarterly Table (Rs m)
Y/e March
Q1
FY14E
Q1
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Q4
FY13
12M
FY14E
12M
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Net Sales 5,350 4,332 23.5 5,867 26,369 18,645 41.4
EBITDA 1,470 1,198 22.7 1,626 7,719 5,483 40.8
Margin (%) 27.5 27.7 (18)bps 27.7 29.3 29.4 (13)bps
Reported PAT 578 450 28.4 696 3,803 2,172 75.1
PAT (Excl. Ex Items) 578 450 28.4 696 3,803 2,172 75.1
Operating Metrics
Sales (m sqft) 0.9 0.8 10.2 1.1 4.3 3.8 14.3
Sales Value ( Rs m) 6,029 4,794 25.8 6,743 24,240 22,145 9.5
Avg Realisation (Rs/sqft) 6,548 5,737 14.1 6,294 5,649 5,897 (4.2)
July 8, 2013 172

Apr-Jun 2013 Earnings Preview
Unitech
Rating
Reduce
Price (Rs) 20
Target Price (Rs) 19
M/Cap (Rs bn) 52.8
Shares o/s (m) 2,616.3
Key Figures (Rs m)
Y/e March FY13 FY14E FY15E
Net Sales 24,405 26,830 29,231
EBITDA 3,270 5,060 4,432
Margin (%) 13.4 18.9 15.2
PAT 3,130 3,116 2,669
EPS (Rs) 1.2 1.2 1.0
Growth (%) 31.9 (0.5) (14.3)
RoE (%) 2.7 2.7 2.3
PE (x) 16.9 17.0 19.8
P / BV (x) 0.5 0.5 0.4
EV / E (x) 28.6 19.9 23.1
The company had 4 launches during the quarter which have done pretty well for
them. We expect sales in value and volume terms to witness strong sequential;
growth and remain flat on YoY basis. Further, Prestige acquired two new projects;
one in Bangalore and one in Hyderabad, both through the JD model. The company
remains confident of two large Chennai launches in the upcoming quarter. Revenue
recognition during the quarter is also expected to remain strong.
Quarterly Table (Rs m)
Y/e March
Q1
FY14E
Q1
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Q4
FY13
12M
FY14E
12M
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Net Sales 6,852 4,077 68.0 8,483 26,830 24,405 9.9
EBITDA 878 547 60.4 797 5,060 3,270 54.7
Margin (%) 12.8 13.4 (61)bps 9.4 18.9 13.4 546 bps
Reported PAT 744 459 62.2 303 3,116 4,166 (25.2)
PAT (Excl. Ex Items) 745 459 62.1 1,070 3,116 3,130 (0.5)
Operating Metrics
Sale (m.sq.ft)
Residential 1.5 1.4 0.7 0.9 5.5 5.5 0.0
Non-Residential 0.3 0.1 275.0 0.1 2.8 0.6 358.3
Avg. Real. (Rs / sq. ft.)
Residential 4,700 4,232 11.1 4,745 4,250 4,650 (8.6)
Non-Residential 10,900 11,961 (8.9) 11,308 6,700 10,000 (33.0)
July 8, 2013 173

Apr-Jun 2013 Earnings Preview
Others
Stock Performance
Absolute
Relative to Sensex
1M 3M 6M 12M 1M 3M 6M 12M
Mahindra Holidays & Resorts India 0.5 (5.6) (28.6) (19.1) 1.0 (10.4) (26.5) (29.4)
MT Educa re (0.6) 19.9 (27.7) 2.7 (0.1) 15.1 (25.5) (7.6)
Raymond (17.6) (7.7) (46.9) (42.4) (17.1) (12.5) (44.8) (52.7)
Source: Company Data, PL Research
Summary Financials ‐ Quarterly (Rs m)
Mahindra Holidays
& Resorts India
MT Educare
Raymond
Source: Company Data, PL Research
Q1FY14E Q1FY13 YoY gr. (%) Q4FY13 QoQ gr. (%) 12MFY14E 12MFY13 YoY gr. (%)
Sales 1,572 1,469 7.0 1,874 (16.1) 8,471 6,944 22.0
EBITDA 160 170 (5.8) 381 (57.9) 1,821 1,228 48.3
Margins (%) 10.2 11.6 (140)bps 20.3 (1,011)bps 21.5 17.7 381 bps
PAT 196 190 3.0 309 (36.8) 1,291 908 42.1
Sales 472 369 28.0 351 34.5 2,145 1,573 36.4
EBITDA 58 43 34.2 41 42.1 418 293 42.6
Margins (%) 12.3 11.7 57 bps 11.6 66 bps 19.5 18.6 85 bps
PAT 34 25 38.8 17 105.2 245 180 35.8
Sales 8,925 8,377 6.5 10,814 (17.5) 45,073 40,692 10.8
EBITDA 510 309 64.9 980 (48.0) 4,620 3,714 24.4
Margins (%) 5.7 3.7 202 bps 9.1 (335)bps 10.2 9.1 112 bps
PAT (125) (221) (43.4) (52) 139.3 963 577 66.9
Consolidated Sectoral Data
Key Figures (Rs m)
2013 2014E 2015E
Net Sales 49,209 55,688 64,119
Growth (%) 13.1 13.2 15.1
EBITDA 5,235 6,859 8,790
Margin (%) 10.6 12.3 13.7
PAT 1,666 2,499 3,609
Growth (%) (38.6) 50.0 44.4
PE (x) 24.1 16.0 11.1
Quarterly Table (Rs m)
Apr‐Jun'13 Apr‐Jun'12 YoY gr. (%) Jan‐Mar'13 QoQ gr. (%)
Net Sales 10,969 10,215 7.4 13,039 (15.9)
EBITDA 728 523 39.3 1,401 (48.0)
Margin (%) 6.6 5.1 152 bps 10.7 (411)bps
PAT (Excl. Ex Items ) 105 (6) NA 274 (61.6)
Note: Revenue, EBITDA and PAT numbers are arrived by totaling corresponding numbers of all companies under our coverage in this
sector.
July 8, 2013 174

Apr-Jun 2013 Earnings Preview
Mahindra Holidays & Resorts
Rating
BUY
Price (Rs) 245
Target Price (Rs) 332
M/Cap (Rs bn) 21.6
Shares o/s (m) 88.0
Being a seasonally weak quarter, we expect member additions to decline on a
sequnetial basis. However, with the strong room addition of 431 in FY13, we expect
member additions to grow on a YoY basis. Currently, MHRL has Greenfield projects
underway that gives us a visibility of 500 rooms. This includes Kanha in Madhya
Pradesh, Asanora in Goa, Naldhera in Himachal Pradesh and expansion at its Munnar
resort. Besides, the company is also considering land acquisition for two projects,
each of which shall add 200 rooms.
Key Figures (Rs m)
Y/e March FY13 FY14E FY15E
Net Sales 6,944 8,471 10,745
EBITDA 1,228 1,821 2,471
Margin (%) 17.7 21.5 23.0
PAT 908 1,291 1,675
EPS (Rs) 10.8 14.7 19.0
Growth (%) (11.2) 35.5 29.7
RoE (%) 15.4 18.2 19.3
PE (x) 22.7 16.7 12.9
P / BV (x) 3.3 2.7 2.3
EV / E (x) 17.3 10.8 7.6
Quarterly Table (Rs m)
Y/e March
Q1
FY14E
Q1
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Q4
FY13
12M
FY14E
12M
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Net Sales 1,572 1,469 7.0 1,874 8,471 6,944 22.0
EBITDA 160 170 (5.8) 381 1,821 1,228 48.3
Margin (%) 10.2 11.6 (140)bps 20.3 21.5 17.7 381 bps
Reported PAT 196 190 3.0 309 1,291 908 42.1
PAT (Excl . Ex Items ) 196 190 3.0 309 1,291 908 42.1
Operating Metrics
New Members Added 3,950 3,780 4.5 5,526 21,646 17,489 23.8
No Of Units 2,520 2,049 23.0 2,480 2,930 2,480 18.1
Occupancy (%) 89.0 89.0 0bps 82.0 80.0 81.0 (100)bps
MT Educare
Rating
BUY
Price (Rs) 99
Target Price (Rs) 130
M/Cap (Rs bn) 3.9
Shares o/s (m) 39.5
Key Figures (Rs m)
Y/e March FY13 FY14E FY15E
Net Sales 1,573 2,145 2,617
EBITDA 293 418 542
Margin (%) 18.6 19.5 20.7
PAT 180 245 319
EPS (Rs) 4.6 6.2 8.1
Growth (%) 21.3 35.8 30.3
RoE (%) 22.7 22.8 26.0
PE (x) 21.7 16.0 12.3
P / BV (x) 3.9 3.4 3.0
EV / E (x) 12.0 8.3 5.9
Q1 for the company is a weak quarter as the current year commerce and science
batches admissions do not start as yet and pick up pace in Q2 and Q3. Hence the
student base consists of IXth and Xth standard batches of the previous year and
current year as well as XIIth and test prep student of the science and commerce
division of the previous year. The higher CA students also do not form a part of the
student base this quarter. On account opf the low student base, besides revenues,
margin are also seasonally lower in Q1.
Quarterly Table (Rs m)
Y/e March
Q1
FY14E
Q1
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Q4
FY13
12M
FY14E
12M
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Net Sales 472 369 28.0 351 2,145 1,573 36.4
EBITDA 58 43 34.2 41 418 293 42.6
Margin (%) 12.3 11.7 57 bps 11.6 19.5 18.6 85 bps
Reported PAT 34 25 38.8 17 245 180 35.8
PAT (Excl. Ex Items ) 34 25 38.8 17 245 180 35.8
Operating Metrics
No of students serviced
School 24,278 21,677 12.0 33,224 37,217 33,224 12.0
Science 8,407 7,006 20.0 13,511 19,281 13,511 42.7
Commerce 11,940 10,383 15.0 22,088 25,356 22,088 14.8
CPLC 2,150 NA NA 2,005 2,607 2,005 30.0
July 8, 2013 175

Apr-Jun 2013 Earnings Preview
Raymond
Rating
Accumulate
Price (Rs) 237
Target Price (Rs) 316
M/Cap (Rs bn) 14.6
Shares o/s (m) 61.4
Key Figures (Rs m)
Y/e March FY13 FY14E FY15E
Net Sales 40,692 45,073 50,757
EBITDA 3,714 4,620 5,776
Margin (%) 9.1 10.2 11.4
PAT 577 963 1,615
EPS (Rs) 9.4 15.7 26.3
Growth (%) (63.0) 66.9 67.6
RoE (%) 4.2 6.8 10.6
PE (x) 25.3 15.1 9.0
P / BV (x) 1.1 1.0 0.9
EV / E (x) 8.7 6.9 5.4
We expect a seasonally weak quarter for the company. On the primary sales front,
the situation has been status-quo, with sales remaining under pressure. However, a
pick-up in secondary sales for textile as well as branded apparel segment has been
quite good which bodes well for the quarters to come. For the textile business, on
the wholesale side, the de-growth, which has been happening for a while, has gotten
arrested, while inventory at the channel level is getting cleared as sales through ‘The
Raymond Shop’ are doing well. Besides, the company has also taken a small pricehike
in the month of June.
Quarterly Table (Rs m)
Y/e March
Q1
FY14E
Q1
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Q4
FY13
12M
FY14E
12M
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Net Sales 8,925 8,377 6.5 10,814 45,073 40,692 10.8
EBITDA 510 309 64.9 980 4,620 3,714 24.4
Margin (%) 5.7 3.7 202 bps 9.1 10.2 9.1 112 bps
Reported PAT (125) (350) (64.3) 6 963 577 66.9
PAT (Excl. Ex Items) (125) (221) (43.4) (52) 963 577 66.9
Operating Metrics
Wors ted Textile 3,820 3,660 4.4 5,550 23,046 20,270 13.7
Branded Garments 1,850 1,710 8.2 1,790 8,622 7,630 13.0
New Store Addition 9.0 14.0 (28.6) 8.0 75.0 69.0 7.0
July 8, 2013 176

Apr-Jun 2013 Earnings Preview
Annexure
Auto
Nifty: Company & Sector Valuations
Wgt
(%)
Mcap
(Rs m)
No. of
Shares (m)
CMP
(Rs)
PAT (Rs m) EPS (Rs) PER (x)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2012 2013 2014 2015 2012 2013 2014 2015
1 Bajaj Auto 1.3% 539,105 289.4 1,863 31,375 29,746 32,936 37,434 108.4 102.8 113.8 129.4 17.2 18.1 16.4 14.4
Growth (%) 20.1 (5.2) 10.7 13.7 20.1 (5.2) 10.7 13.7
2 Hero Honda Motors 0.8% 330,213 199.7 1,654 23,783 21,005 22,051 27,360 119.1 105.2 110.4 137.0 13.9 15.7 15.0 12.1
Growth (%) 18.5 (11.7) 5.0 24.1 18.5 (11.7) 5.0 24.1
3 Mahindra & Mahindra 2.3% 583,681 615.9 948 27,706 32,623 38,717 42,873 42.3 49.8 59.1 65.5 18.5 15.7 13.3 12.0
Growth (%) 11.3 17.7 18.7 10.7 11.3 17.7 18.7 10.7
4 Maruti Suzuki India 1.1% 468,541 302.1 1,551 16,352 23,921 28,449 37,114 56.6 79.2 94.2 122.9 27.4 19.6 16.5 12.6
Growth (%) (30.5) 46.3 18.9 30.5 (30.5) 39.9 18.9 30.5
5 Tata Motors 2.7% 844,152 2,933.1 288 128,668 105,517 119,220 139,562 40.5 31.6 35.7 41.8 7.1 9.1 8.1 6.9
Growth (%) 42.3 (18.0) 13.0 17.1 43.0 (22.0) 13.0 17.1
Total 8.4% 2,765,693 4,340.1 227,884 212,811 241,374 284,343 12.1 13.0 11.5 9.7
Growth (%) 23.1 (6.6) 13.4 17.8
Source: Company Data, Bloomberg, PL Research
July 8, 2013 177

Apr-Jun 2013 Earnings Preview
BFSI
Nifty: Company & Sector Valuations
Wgt
(%)
Mcap
(Rs m)
No. of
Shares (m)
CMP
(Rs)
PAT (Rs m) EPS (Rs) PER (x)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2012 2013 2014 2015 2012 2013 2014 2015
6 Axis Bank 2.1% 587,358 468.9 1,253 42,422 51,794 59,659 70,084 102.7 110.7 124.1 145.8 12.2 11.3 10.1 8.6
Book Value (Rs) 552 708 789 907
P/BV (x) 2.3 1.8 1.6 1.4
Growth (%) 25.2 22.1 15.2 17.5 24.4 7.8 12.2 17.5
7 HDFC 6.8% 1,280,673 1,554.1 824 41,226 48,483 58,293 68,744 27.9 31.4 37.7 44.5 29.5 26.3 21.9 18.5
Book Value (Rs) 129 162 183 209
P/BV (x) 6.4 5.1 4.5 3.9
Growth (%) 16.6 17.6 20.2 17.9 15.8 12.3 20.2 17.9
8 HDFC Bank 6.5% 1,577,639 2,388.7 660 51,671 67,263 81,272 102,191 22.0 28.3 34.2 42.9 30.0 23.4 19.3 15.4
Book Value (Rs) 128 152 179 212
P/BV (x) 5.2 4.3 3.7 3.1
Growth (%) 31.6 30.2 20.8 25.7 30.4 28.4 20.8 25.7
9 ICICI Bank 6.3% 1,186,311 1,154.1 1,028 64,653 83,255 94,541 108,976 56.0 71.9 81.6 94.1 18.4 14.3 12.6 10.9
Book Value (Rs) 523 576 631 695
P/BV (x) 2.0 1.8 1.6 1.5
Growth (%) 25.5 28.8 13.6 15.3 25.1 28.4 13.6 15.3
10 IDFC 0.8% 191,343 1,515.0 126 15,538 18,370 21,494 24,327 10.3 12.1 14.2 16.1 12.3 10.4 8.9 7.9
Book Value (Rs) 81 90 102 114
P/BV (x) 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.1
Growth (%) 21.5 18.2 17.0 13.2 17.4 18.2 17.0 13.2
11 Kotak Mahindra Bank 1.4% 531,217 767.4 692 17,211 19,995 23,457 29,548 23.2 26.8 30.6 38.5 29.8 25.8 22.6 18.0
Book Value (Rs) 124 150 179 179
P/BV (x) 5.6 4.6 3.9 3.9
Growth (%) 15.3 16.2 17.3 26.0 14.7 15.3 14.3 26.0
12 Punjab National Bank 0.5% 219,242 353.5 620 48,846 47,477 52,008 59,484 144.0 134.3 147.1 168.3 4.3 4.6 4.2 3.7
Book Value (Rs) 777 884 997 1,125
P/BV (x) 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.6
Growth (%) 10.2 (2.8) 9.5 14.4 2.9 (6.7) 9.5 14.4
July 8, 2013 178

Apr-Jun 2013 Earnings Preview
Nifty: Company & Sector Valuations
Wgt
(%)
Mcap
(Rs m)
No. of
Shares (m)
CMP
(Rs)
PAT (Rs m) EPS (Rs) PER (x)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2012 2013 2014 2015 2012 2013 2014 2015
13 State Bank Of India 2.6% 1,281,332 684.0 1,873 152,734 177,008 152,792 194,859 227.6 258.8 223.4 284.9 8.2 7.2 8.4 6.6
Book Value (Rs) 1,583 1,828 1,993 2,208
P/BV (x) 1.2 1.0 0.9 0.8
Growth (%) 41.2 15.9 (13.7) 27.5 33.7 13.7 (13.7) 27.5
14 Bank of Baroda 0.6% 233,734 421.3 555 50,070 44,807 48,736 55,586 121.4 106.0 115.3 131.6 4.6 5.2 4.8 4.2
Book Value (Rs) 638 731 818 919
P/BV (x) 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6
Growth (%) 18.0 (10.5) 8.8 14.1 12.1 (12.7) 8.8 14.1
15 IndusInd Bank 1.1% 257,544 523.3 492 8,026 10,612 13,915 16,530 17.2 20.3 26.6 31.6 28.7 24.3 18.5 15.6
Book Value (Rs) 96 142 164 190
P/BV (x) 5.1 3.5 3.0 2.6
Growth (%) 39.0 32.2 31.1 18.8 38.5 18.3 31.1 18.8
Total 28.8% 7,346,393 9,830.2 492,397 569,065 606,167 730,330 14.9 12.9 12.1 10.1
Growth (%) 26.8 15.6 6.5 20.5
Source: Company Data, Bloomberg, PL Research
July 8, 2013 179

Apr-Jun 2013 Earnings Preview
Cement
Nifty: Company & Sector Valuations
Wgt
(%)
Mcap
(Rs m)
No. of
Shares (m)
CMP
(Rs)
PAT (Rs m) EPS (Rs) PER (x)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2012 2013 2014 2015 2012 2013 2014 2015
16 ACC 0.6% 236,559 187.7 1,260 10,209 13,305 12,425 15,003 54.3 70.8 66.1 79.8 23.2 17.8 19.1 15.8
Growth (%) 4.3 30.3 (6.6) 20.7 4.3 30.3 (6.6) 20.7
17 Ambuja Cements 0.8% 298,292 1,544.4 193 11,780 15,053 15,000 17,330 7.7 10.9 10.9 12.5 25.2 17.7 17.8 15.4
Growth (%) (2.5) 27.8 (0.4) 15.5 (2.8) 41.9 (0.4) 15.5
18 Grasim Industries 1.0% 257,255 91.8 2,803 26,475 27,044 28,557 34,012 288.6 294.8 311.3 369.2 9.7 9.5 9.0 7.6
Growth (%) 16.2 2.2 5.6 19.1 16.1 2.1 5.6 18.6
19 UltraTech Cement 1.0% 517,687 274.2 1,888 12,787 23,066 26,554 30,716 46.7 84.2 96.9 112.1 40.5 22.4 19.5 16.8
Growth (%) 16.8 80.4 15.1 15.7 (46.9) 80.4 15.1 15.7
Total 3.4% 1,309,793 2,098.1 61,250 78,467 82,536 97,060 21.4 16.7 15.9 13.5
Growth (%) 10.1 28.1 5.2 17.6
Source: Company Data, Bloomberg, PL Research
July 8, 2013 180

Apr-Jun 2013 Earnings Preview
Engineering & Power
Nifty: Company & Sector Valuations
Wgt
(%)
Mcap
(Rs m)
No. of
Shares (m)
CMP
(Rs)
PAT (Rs m) EPS (Rs) PER (x)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2012 2013 2014 2015 2012 2013 2014 2015
20 BHEL 0.8% 447,299 2,447.6 183 70,592 66,126 61,094 56,976 28.8 27.0 25.0 23.3 6.3 6.8 7.3 7.9
Growth (%) 28.0 (6.3) (7.6) (6.7) 28.1 (6.3) (7.6) (6.7)
21 Jaiprakash Associates 0.3% 115,503 2,219.1 52 10,263 5,013 6,930 9,728 4.8 2.3 3.1 4.4 10.8 23.0 16.7 11.9
Growth (%) 35.5 (51.2) 38.2 40.4 35.5 (53.2) 38.2 40.4
22 Larsen & Toubro 4.1% 864,598 616.2 1,403 44,196 45,499 47,551 55,385 72.2 73.9 77.3 90.0 19.4 19.0 18.2 15.6
Growth (%) 20.4 2.9 4.5 16.5 19.7 2.4 4.5 16.5
23 NTPC 1.5% 1,157,663 8,245.5 140 82,608 91,858 106,650 113,416 10.0 11.1 12.9 13.8 14.0 12.6 10.9 10.2
Growth (%) (6.5) 11.2 16.1 6.3 (6.5) 11.2 16.1 6.3
24 Power Grid Corp Of India 0.8% 487,510 4,629.7 105 32,549 42,343 47,892 52,844 7.0 9.1 9.4 10.4 15.0 11.5 11.2 10.1
Growth (%) 23.6 30.6 10.9 17.4 16.4 30.6 10.1 13.4
25 Reliance Infrastructure 0.3% 96,964 263.0 369 14,460 17,199 17,115 19,523 55.0 65.4 65.1 74.2 6.7 5.6 5.7 5.0
Growth (%) (14.8) 18.9 (0.5) 14.1 (13.4) 18.9 (0.5) 14.1
26 Tata Power Co 0.7% 201,711 2,373.1 85 11,007 8,548 10,710 12,512 4.6 3.6 4.5 5.3 18.3 23.6 18.8 16.1
Growth (%) (43.3) (22.3) 25.3 16.8 (43.3) (22.3) 25.3 16.8
Total 8.5% 3,371,249 20,794.2 265,676 276,586 297,942 320,384 12.7 12.2 11.3 10.5
Growth (%) 5.8 4.1 7.7 7.5
Source: Company Data, Bloomberg, PL Research
July 8, 2013 181

Apr-Jun 2013 Earnings Preview
FMCG
Nifty: Company & Sector Valuations
Wgt
(%)
Mcap
(Rs m)
No. of
Shares (m)
CMP
(Rs)
PAT (Rs m) EPS (Rs) PER (x)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2012 2013 2014 2015 2012 2013 2014 2015
27 Hindustan Unilever 3.3% 1,318,459 2,162.5 610 25,726 31,882 34,935 40,292 11.9 14.7 16.2 18.6 51.2 41.4 37.7 32.7
Growth (%) 18.4 23.9 9.6 15.3 18.3 23.9 9.6 15.3
28 ITC 10.2% 2,739,566 7,901.8 347 61,622 74,184 85,312 103,444 7.9 9.5 10.9 13.2 44.0 36.5 31.8 26.2
Growth (%) 23.1 20.4 15.0 21.3 21.9 20.4 15.0 21.3
29 Asian Paints 1.1% 448,228 95.9 4,673 10,226 11,137 13,380 16,307 106.6 116.1 139.5 170.0 43.8 40.2 33.5 27.5
Growth (%) 21.3 8.9 20.1 21.9 21.3 8.9 20.1 21.9
Total 14.6% 4,506,253 10,064.3 97,573 117,204 133,627 160,044 46.2 38.4 33.7 28.2
Growth (%) 35.9 20.1 14.0 19.8
Source: Company Data, Bloomberg, PL Research
Metals
Nifty: Company & Sector Valuations
Wgt
(%)
Mcap
(Rs m)
No. of
Shares (m)
CMP
(Rs)
PAT (Rs m) EPS (Rs) PER (x)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2012 2013 2014 2015 2012 2013 2014 2015
30 Hindalco Industries 0.7% 191,745 1,914.6 100 33,970 30,269 26,892 29,142 17.7 15.8 13.6 14.6 5.6 6.3 7.3 6.8
Growth (%) 38.3 (10.9) (11.2) 8.4 38.2 (10.9) (13.8) 7.5
31 Jindal Steel & Power 0.5% 207,299 934.8 222 40,585 34,842 29,849 30,816 43.4 37.3 31.9 33.0 5.1 5.9 6.9 6.7
Growth (%) 8.1 (14.2) (14.3) 3.2 8.0 (14.2) (14.3) 3.2
32 Sesa Goa 0.3% 122,543 869.1 141 26,955 22,803 24,329 27,347 31.0 26.2 27.9 32.1 4.5 5.4 5.1 4.4
Growth (%) (36.2) (15.4) 6.7 12.4 (36.9) (15.4) 6.3 15.0
33 Tata Steel 0.9% 252,419 971.2 260 20,279 3,323 24,323 34,528 20.9 3.4 25.0 35.5 12.5 76.0 10.4 7.3
Growth (%) (65.8) (83.6) 632.0 42.0 (66.3) (83.6) 632.0 42.0
34 Coal India 1.0% 1,831,746 6,316.4 290 147,263 179,742 181,030 196,991 23.3 28.5 28.7 31.2 12.4 10.2 10.1 9.3
Growth (%) 35.2 22.1 0.7 8.8 35.2 22.1 0.7 8.8
35 NMDC 0.4% 406,185 3,964.7 102 72,654 61,949 65,172 59,044 18.3 15.6 16.1 14.9 5.6 6.6 6.3 6.9
Growth (%) 11.8 (14.7) 5.2 (9.4) 11.8 (14.9) 3.5 (7.7)
Total 3.8% 3,011,938 14,971 341,705 332,928 351,595 377,868 8.8 9.0 8.6 8.0
Growth (%) 1.2 (2.6) 5.6 7.5
Source: Company Data, Bloomberg, PL Research
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Oil & Gas
Nifty: Company & Sector Valuations
Wgt
(%)
Mcap
(Rs m)
No. of
Shares (m)
CMP
(Rs)
PAT (Rs m) EPS (Rs) PER (x)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2012 2013 2014 2015 2012 2013 2014 2015
36 BPCL 0.5% 249,970 723.1 346 7,808 18,808 20,506 23,514 10.8 26.0 29.1 33.4 32.0 13.3 11.9 10.4
Growth (%) (52.2) 140.9 9.0 14.7 (52.2) 140.8 11.9 14.7
37 Cairn India 0.9% 564,302 1,910.3 295 79,377 120,564 101,910 96,135 41.7 63.2 53.5 50.8 7.1 4.7 5.5 5.8
Growth (%) 25.3 51.9 (15.5) (5.7) 25.0 51.4 (15.3) (5.0)
38 Gail India 0.8% 403,312 1,268.5 318 44,436 43,736 46,414 50,223 35.0 34.5 36.3 39.4 9.1 9.2 8.8 8.1
Growth (%) 10.5 (1.6) 6.1 8.2 10.5 (1.6) 5.2 8.5
39 ONGC 2.9% 2,599,586 8,555.5 304 281,436 242,196 290,565 339,849 32.9 28.3 33.9 40.7 9.2 10.7 9.0 7.5
Growth (%) 25.3 (13.9) 20.0 17.0 25.3 (13.9) 19.8 19.9
40 Reliance Industries 7.6% 2,799,756 3,229.4 867 197,240 208,790 220,815 246,760 66.1 70.8 69.5 77.7 13.1 12.2 12.5 11.2
Growth (%) 2.2 5.9 5.8 11.7 2.1 7.1 (1.9) 11.8
Total 12.7% 6,616,926 15,686.8 610,298 634,095 680,211 756,481 10.8 10.4 9.7 8.7
Growth (%) 13.6 3.9 7.3 11.2
Source: Company Data, Bloomberg, PL Research
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Pharma
Nifty: Company & Sector Valuations
Wgt
(%)
Mcap
(Rs m)
No. of
Shares (m)
CMP
(Rs)
PAT (Rs m) EPS (Rs) PER (x)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2012 2013 2014 2015 2012 2013 2014 2015
41 Cipla 1.1% 318,358 802.9 397 11,442 15,449 15,136 16,575 14.3 19.2 18.9 20.6 27.8 20.6 21.0 19.2
Growth (%) 15.6 35.0 1.7 16.1 15.6 35.0 1.3 16.2
42 Dr. Reddy's 1.5% 382,279 170.0 2,249 13,009 16,772 19,027 21,051 76.7 98.7 112.0 123.9 29.3 22.8 20.1 18.1
Growth (%) 30.2 17.4 21.7 13.8 30.0 17.2 20.8 13.9
43 Ranbaxy Laboratories 0.3% 145,018 423.1 343 (28,997) 9,228 23,110 30,887 (68.7) 21.8 54.6 73.0 (5.0) 15.7 6.3 4.7
Growth (%) (131.8) 12.8 39.7 (13.4) (131.8) 10.0 37.8 (11.8)
44 Sun Pharma 2.1% 1,078,082 1,034.0 1,043 25,872 30,081 11,669 41,490 25.0 29.0 11.3 40.1 41.7 35.9 92.5 26.0
Growth (%) 42.5 16.3 30.8 19.6 42.5 16.1 31.0 18.2
45 Lupin 1.1% 370,753 447.7 828 8,677 13,142 15,542 18,453 19.4 29.4 34.7 40.9 42.6 28.2 23.9 20.2
Growth (%) 0.6 51.5 18.3 18.7 0.4 51.1 18.1 17.9
Total 6.0% 2,294,490 2,877.7 30,003 84,670 84,484 128,455 76.5 27.1 27.2 17.9
Growth (%) (51.3) 182.2 (0.2) 52.0
Source: Company Data, Bloomberg, PL Research
Real Estate
Nifty: Company & Sector Valuations
Wgt
(%)
Mcap
(Rs m)
No. of
Shares (m)
CMP
(Rs)
PAT (Rs m) EPS (Rs) PER (x)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2012 2013 2014 2015 2012 2013 2014 2015
46 DLF 0.4% 311,721 1,779.7 175 12,263 7,623 8,487 11,024 7.2 4.5 4.8 6.2 24.3 39.0 36.6 28.2
Growth (%) (20.5) (37.8) 11.3 29.9 (20.5) (37.8) 6.5 29.9
Total 0.4% 311,721 1,779.7 12,263 7,623 8,487 11,024 25.4 40.9 36.7 28.3
Growth (%) (20.5) (37.8) 11.3 29.9
Source: Company Data, Bloomberg, PL Research
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Technology
Nifty: Company & Sector Valuations
Wgt
(%)
Mcap
(Rs m)
No. of
Shares (m)
CMP
(Rs)
PAT (Rs m) EPS (Rs) PER (x)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2012 2013 2014 2015 2012 2013 2014 2015
47 HCL Technologies 1.2% 570,597 696.9 819 17,099 25,260 39,465 41,702 24.8 36.4 56.9 60.1 33.0 22.5 14.4 13.6
Growth (%) 31.5 47.7 56.2 5.7 28.0 46.7 56.2 5.7
48 Infosys Technologies 6.4% 1,417,301 574.2 2,468 83,160 94,210 102,762 110,944 145.4 164.7 179.7 194.0 17.0 15.0 13.7 12.7
Growth (%) 21.9 13.3 9.1 8.0 21.9 13.3 9.1 8.0
49 TCS 4.1% 2,948,847 1,957.2 1,507 107,476 139,414 163,724 181,547 54.9 71.2 83.7 92.8 27.4 21.2 18.0 16.2
Growth (%) 17.6 29.7 17.4 10.9 17.6 29.7 17.4 10.9
Total 11.6% 4,936,745 3,228.3 207,735 258,884 305,950 334,193 23.8 19.1 16.1 14.8
Growth (%) 20.3 24.6 18.2 9.2
Source: Company Data, Bloomberg, PL Research
Telecom
Nifty: Company & Sector Valuations
Wgt
(%)
Mcap
(Rs m)
No. of
Shares (m)
CMP
(Rs)
PAT (Rs m) EPS (Rs) PER (x)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2012 2013 2014 2015 2012 2013 2014 2015
50 Bharti Airtel 1.9% 1,173,637 3,997.4 294 42,594 22,757 45,450 65,198 11.2 6.0 11.9 17.2 26.2 48.9 24.7 17.1
Growth (%) (29.6) (46.6) 99.7 43.4 (29.6) (46.5) 97.8 44.8
Total 1.9% 1,173,637 3,997.4 42,594 22,757 45,450 65,198 27.6 51.6 25.8 18.0
Growth (%) (29.6) (46.6) 99.7 43.4
Source: Company Data, Bloomberg, PL Research
Total Nifty
Nifty: Company & Sector Valuations
Wgt
(%)
Mcap
(Rs m)
No. of
Shares (m)
CMP
(Rs)
PAT (Rs m) EPS (Rs) PER (x)
2010 2011 2012 2013 2010 2011 2012 2013 2010 2011 2012 2013
Grand Total* 100.0% 37,644,840 6,539.0 2,389,378 2,595,089 2,837,824 3,265,380 380.3 396.9 434.0 499.4 15.3 14.6 13.4 11.6
Growth (%) 11.8 8.6 9.4 15.1 11.9 4.3 9.4 15.1
Source: Company Data, Bloomberg, PL Research
* Not based on Free Float
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