will government's massive surge in investment ... - Myiris.com

Apr-Jun 2013 Earnings Preview
United Phosphorus
Rating
BUY
Price (Rs ) 136
Target Price (Rs) 185
M/Cap (Rs bn) 60.1
Shares o/s (m) 442.6
Key Figures (Rs m)
Y/e March FY13 FY14E FY15E
Net Sales 91,866 103,392 115,247
EBITDA 16,549 19,128 21,666
Margin (%) 18.0 18.5 18.8
PAT 8,339 9,378 10,676
EPS (Rs) 18.8 21.2 24.1
Growth (%) 29.2 12.5 13.8
RoE (%) 18.9 18.6 18.1
PE (x) 7.2 6.4 5.6
P / BV (x) 1.3 1.1 0.9
EV / E (x) 5.1 4.4 3.7
India is likely to report revenue growth of 11% YoY to Rs6.9bn driven by encouraging
placements. We expect North America to report revenues of Rs7.1bn, 6% YoY. While
there was a delayed start to the season in North America, things have picked up
considerably in the last couple of months (season in North America starts from
February) and planting across crops like soyabean, corn, wheat has been nearly in
line with previous years. RoW is expected to report growth of 24% YoY at Rs6.6bn.
We expect company to report PBT of Rs2.5bn, -2% YoY. However, PAT is likely to
decline by 15% YoY to Rs 1.9bn due to higher minority payments.
Quarterly Table (Rs m)
Y/e March
Q1
FY14E
Q1
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Q4
FY13
12M
FY14E
12M
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Net Sales 25,119 22,142 13.4 28,207 103,392 91,866 12.5
EBITDA 4,521 3,864 17.0 5,372 19,128 16,549 15.6
Margin (%) 18.0 17.5 55 bps 19.0 18.5 18.0 49 bps
Reported PAT 1,876 2,029 (7.5) 3,489 9,378 7,757 20.9
PAT (Excl. Ex Items) 1,876 2,209 (15.1) 3,137 9,378 8,339 12.5
Revenues growth (%)
India 11.0 16.0 (504)bps 24.9 12.0 5.0 700 bps
North America 6.0 32.1 (2,609)bps 48.9 7.0 21.5 (1,454)bps
Europe 6.0 12.0 (597)bps 36.8 4.0 20.8 (1,683)bps
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