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Apr-Jun 2013 Earnings Preview
YES Bank
Rating
BUY
Price (Rs) 467
Target Price (Rs) 550
M/Cap (Rs bn) 167.4
Shares o/s (m) 358.6
Key Figures (Rs m)
Y/e March FY13 FY14E FY15E
NII 22,188 28,051 33,748
PPP 21,417 26,230 30,496
NIM (%) 2.6 2.6 2.7
PAT 13,007 15,639 17,962
EPS (Rs) 36.3 43.6 50.1
Growth (%) 31.0 20.2 14.9
PE (x) 12.9 10.7 9.3
P / ABV (x) 2.9 2.4 2.0
We expect ~31% YoY PAT growth. NIMs are expected to hold at a higher level of
Q4FY13, supported by continued accretion in CASA and softened wholesale cost of
funding. Though the bank is on an expansion mode, the cost ratio is likely to remain
stable. We continue to remain sanguine on asset quality but build in credit cost at 75
bps as Yes bank is likely to use treasury gains on corporate bond book to provide
higher counter cyclical provisions.
Quarterly Table (Rs m)
Y/e March
Q1
FY14E
Q1
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Q4
FY13
12M
FY14E
12M
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
NII 6,843 4,722 44.9 6,381 28,051 22,188 26.4
PPP 6,499 4,596 41.4 6,339 26,230 21,417 22.5
NIM Calculated (%) 3.0 2.8 7 bps 3.0 2.6 2.6 3 bps
PAT 3,786 2,901 30.5 3,622 15,639 13,007 20.2
Operating Metrics
Credit Cost 0.75 0.31 44 bps 0.86 0.59 0.40 19 bps
Advances 479,396 385,339 24.4 469,996 524,045 424,941 23.3
Gross NPA 1,085 1,095 (0.9) 943 3,062 943 224.7
Net NPA 80 300 (73.2) 70 637 70 811.9
HDFC
Rating
Accumulate
Price (Rs) 824
Target Price (Rs) 900
M/Cap (Rs bn) 1,274.3
Shares o/s (m) 1,546.4
Key Figures (Rs m)
Y/e March FY13 FY14E FY15E
Net Op. Inc. 72,567 88,512 103,585
NII 57,988 72,891 86,836
PPP 67,178 82,334 96,574
PAT 48,483 58,293 68,744
EPS (Rs) 31.4 37.7 44.5
Growth (%) 12.3 20.2 17.9
NIM (%) 3.2 3.4 3.3
RoE (%) 22.0 21.8 22.6
PE (x) 26.3 21.9 18.5
P / BV (x) 5.1 4.5 3.9
Adj. for Subs. Valuation of Rs210/share
No surprises expected. We expect individual loan growth of ~23% YoY in Q1FY14 and
spreads at 2.3% as funding advantage from lower wholesale cost of borrowing is
netted off by increasing share of mortgages.
Quarterly Table (Rs m)
Y/e March
Q1
FY14E
Q1
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Q4
FY13
12M
FY14E
12M
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Net Operating Inc. 18,403 15,541 18.4 22,379 88,512 72,567 22.0
NII 16,933 14,638 15.7 20,322 72,891 57,988 25.7
Non Interest Inc. 1,470 903 62.8 2,057 15,621 14,579 7.1
PPP 16,490 13,799 19.5 20,997 82,334 67,178 22.6
PAT 12,037 10,019 20.1 15,552 58,293 48,483 20.2
Operating Metrics
Advances 1,776,981 1,482,623 19.9 1,700,460 2,067,083 1,700,460 21.6
Borrowing 1,648,685 1,438,116 14.6 1,588,280 1,273,950 1,068,950 19.2
Disbursement 186,097 156,384 19.0 274,520 1,022,405 824,520 24.0
NIM 3.6 3.7 (8)bps 4.5 4.0 3.9 10 bps
July 8, 2013 73