will government's massive surge in investment ... - Myiris.com

Apr-Jun 2013 Earnings Preview
ACC
Rating
Reduce
Price (Rs) 1,260
Target Price (Rs) 1,080
M/Cap (Rs bn) 236.8
Shares o/s (m) 188.0
Net revenue is expected to decline by 6.3% YoY on the back of 4.6% YoY (Rs209/t)
fall in realisations and 1.7% fall in volumes at 6.0m tonnes. Cost is expected to rise by
7% or Rs246/t YoY at Rs3,752 due to higher coal prices and freight cost. Hence,
EBITDA/tonne would decline by 42.3% at Rs621. Net profit is expected to decline by
38% at Rs2.6bn.
Key Figures (Rs m)
Y/e Dec CY12 CY13E CY14E
Net Sales 111,306 115,414 123,940
EBITDA 19,690 18,946 22,291
Margin (%) 17.7 16.4 18.0
PAT 13,305 12,425 15,003
EPS (Rs) 70.8 66.1 79.8
Growth (%) 30.3 (6.6) 20.7
RoE (%) 18.5 16.0 17.6
PE (x) 17.8 19.1 15.8
P / BV (x) 3.2 2.9 2.7
EV / E (x) 10.6 11.0 9.5
Quarterly Table (Rs m)
Y/e Dec
Q2
CY13E
Q2
CY12
YoY gr.
(%)
Q1
CY13
H1
CY13E
H1
CY12
YoY gr.
(%)
Net Sales 27,343 29,190 (6.3) 29,111 56,454 59,169 (4.6)
EBITDA 3,693 6,503 (43.2) 4,466 8,159 12,510 (34.8)
Margin (%) 13.5 22.3 (877)bps 15.3 14.5 21.1 (669)bps
Reported PAT 2,569 4,145 (38.0) 4,383 6,952 5,661 22.8
PAT (Excl. Ex Items ) 2,569 4,168 (38.4) 2,975 5,543 8,090 (31.5)
Operating Metrics
Volume (mn te) 6.0 6.1 (1.7) 6.4 12.4 12.8 (3.1)
Net Real. (Rs/te) 4,372 4,581 (4.6) 4,323 4,346 4,392 (1.0)
EBITDA (Rs / te) 621 1,075 (42.3) 696 660 980 (32.7)
Ambuja Cement
Rating
Reduce
Price (Rs) 193
Target Price (Rs) 171
M/Cap (Rs bn) 266.9
Shares o/s (m) 1,381.7
Net revenue is expected to fall 8.5% YoY at Rs23.5bn due to 3% fall in volumes and
5.6% decline in realization at Rs4,301/t. Cost/tonne is expected to rise 5.4% YoY
(Rs178) at Rs3,453 on account of higher energy and freight cost. EBITDA/tonne
would decline 34% YoY at Rs847. Adjusted PAT is expected to fall 34.8% YoY at
Rs3.06bn.
Key Figures (Rs m)
Y/e Dec CY12 CY13E CY14E
Net Sales 96,749 101,899 112,074
EBITDA 24,495 23,501 26,826
Margin (%) 25.3 23.1 23.9
PAT 15,053 15,000 17,330
EPS (Rs) 10.9 10.9 12.5
Growth (%) 41.9 (0.4) 15.5
RoE (%) 17.8 16.1 16.6
PE (x) 17.7 17.8 15.4
P / BV (x) 3.0 2.7 2.4
EV / E (x) 9.4 9.5 8.1
Quarterly Table (Rs m)
Y/e Dec
Q2
CY13E
Q2
CY12
YoY gr.
(%)
Q1
CY13
H1
CY13E
H1
CY12
YoY gr.
(%)
Net Sales 23,499 25,669 (8.5) 25,448 48,948 51,984 (5.8)
EBITDA 4,631 7,223 (35.9) 5,118 9,749 14,693 (33.6)
Margin (%) 19.7 28.1 (844)bps 20.1 19.9 28.3 (835)bps
Reported PAT 3,057 4,689 (34.8) 4,879 7,936 7,811 1.6
PAT (Excl. Ex Items ) 3,057 4,689 (34.8) 4,494 7,551 9,697 (22.1)
Operating Metrics
Volume (mn te) 5.5 5.6 (3.0) 6.0 11.4 11.8 (3.3)
Net Real. (Rs/te) 4,301 4,558 (5.6) 4,273 4,286 4,401 (2.6)
EBITDA/ te (Rs/te) 847 1,283 (33.9) 859 854 1,244 (31.4)
July 8, 2013 91