will government's massive surge in investment ... - Myiris.com
will government's massive surge in investment ... - Myiris.com
will government's massive surge in investment ... - Myiris.com
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Apr-Jun 2013 Earn<strong>in</strong>gs Preview<br />
Consolidated Sectoral Data<br />
Key Figures (Rs m)<br />
2013 2014E 2015E<br />
Net Sales 752,391 852,095 974,064<br />
Growth (%) 25.5 13.3 14.3<br />
EBITDA 175,362 206,154 240,483<br />
Marg<strong>in</strong> (%) 23.3 24.2 24.7<br />
PAT 101,837 107,640 159,235<br />
Growth (%) 154.3 5.7 47.9<br />
PE (x) 26.4 25.0 16.9<br />
Quarterly Table (Rs m)<br />
Apr‐Jun'13 Apr‐Jun'12 YoY gr. (%) Jan‐Mar'13 QoQ gr. (%)<br />
Net Sales 196,854 176,366 11.6 192,632 2.2<br />
EBITDA 46,095 41,465 11.2 41,543 11.0<br />
Marg<strong>in</strong> (%) 23.4 23.5 (9)bps 21.6 185 bps<br />
PAT (Excl. Ex Items ) 1,376 15,693 (91.2) 28,908 (95.2)<br />
Note: Revenue, EBITDA and PAT numbers are arrived by total<strong>in</strong>g correspond<strong>in</strong>g numbers of all <strong>com</strong>panies under our coverage <strong>in</strong> this<br />
sector.<br />
Aurob<strong>in</strong>do Pharma<br />
Rat<strong>in</strong>g<br />
Buy<br />
Price (Rs ) 193<br />
Target Price (Rs) 282<br />
M/Cap (Rs bn) 56.1<br />
Shares o/s (m) 291.2<br />
Key Figures (Rs m)<br />
Y/e March FY13 FY14E FY15E<br />
Net Sales 57,831 69,256 79,147<br />
EBITDA 8,169 11,150 13,534<br />
Marg<strong>in</strong> (%) 14.1 16.1 17.1<br />
PAT 2,939 6,388 8,128<br />
EPS (Rs) 10.1 21.9 27.9<br />
Growth (%) (337.9) 117.4 27.2<br />
RoE (%) 11.9 22.8 24.2<br />
PE (x) 19.1 8.8 6.9<br />
P / BV (x) 2.2 1.9 1.5<br />
EV / E (x) 10.8 7.9 6.3<br />
We expect Aurob<strong>in</strong>do Pharma’s Q1FY14E revenue to grow at 40% YoY to INR17bn<br />
led by US generics and formulation growth. US sales growth to be bnenefitted from<br />
strong flow of approvals and favourable currency. With launches of valuable generics<br />
and <strong>in</strong>creas<strong>in</strong>g presence of <strong>in</strong>jectables, the <strong>com</strong>pany to <strong>in</strong>crease EBITDA marg<strong>in</strong> by<br />
200bps sequentially to 16% <strong>in</strong> Q1FY14E. Aurob<strong>in</strong>do’s high foreign debt and work<strong>in</strong>g<br />
capital cycle rema<strong>in</strong>s to be strong hangover. With strong USD appreciation, We<br />
expect INR1.5bn forex loss <strong>in</strong> Q1FY14E.<br />
Quarterly Table (Rs m)<br />
Y/e March<br />
Q1<br />
FY14E<br />
Q1<br />
FY13<br />
YoY gr.<br />
(%)<br />
Q4<br />
FY13<br />
12M<br />
FY14E<br />
12M<br />
FY13<br />
YoY gr.<br />
(%)<br />
Net Sales 16,925 11,974 41.3 15,527 69,256 57,831 19.8<br />
EBITDA 2,743 1,228 123.4 2,224 11,150 8,169 36.5<br />
Marg<strong>in</strong> (%) 16.2 10.3 595 bps 14.3 16.1 14.1 197 bps<br />
Reported PAT 42 (1,289) NA 1,086 6,388 2,939 117.4<br />
PAT (Excl. Ex Items) 42 (1,289) NA 1,086 6,388 2,939 117.4<br />
Operat<strong>in</strong>g Metrics<br />
US Formulations 5,800 3,283 76.7 4,860 21,469 17,526 22.5<br />
EU & ROW 2,838 1,861 52.5 2,492 11,352 8,843 28.4<br />
ARV formulations 1,753 1,402 20.0 1,828 8,651 7,503 12.2<br />
APIs 6,938 5,871 14.5 6,668 28,587 25,362 10.2<br />
July 8, 2013 146
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