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Apr-Jun 2013 Earnings Preview
Nifty PAT Growth (YoY)
(%)
70.0
60.0
50.0
40.0
30.0
20.0
10.0
0.0
-10.0
-20.0
-30.0
Q1FY09
Q2FY09
Q3FY09
Q4FY09
Q1FY10
Q2FY10
Q3FY10
Q4FY10
Q1FY11
Q2FY11
Q3FY11
Q4FY11
Q1FY12
Q2FY12
Q3FY12
Q4FY12
Q1FY13
Q2FY13
Q3FY13
Q4FY13
Q1FY14E
12.6
5.3
1.2
15.4
-12.5
-19.1
2.4
15.7
30.1
60.4
42.7
30.7
10.2
2.5
10.2
21.0
2.3
26.4
2.2
1.5
7.9
Source: PL Research
PL’s Coverage Universe – Revenue &
EBITDA is expected to grow 3.7% & 2.9%
respectively on YoY basis. PAT is expected
to fall by 6.2% YoY
Q1 FY14 PL’s Coverage Universe Earnings Preview: Revenue growth for all the
companies under PL’s coverage universe is expected at 3.7% on a YoY basis while
EBITDA would lag topline growth at 2.9%. EBITDA margin would fall to 23.7% from
23.9% in Q1 FY13. Financial Services, Consumer staples, Banks, Pharma and IT will
lead the charge in terms of revenue growth while Metals, Agri-products and Cement
are expected to drag it down. PAT is expected to fall by 6.2% YoY. Metals, Cement,
Auto-ancillary, Agri-products would drag down profits. On a QoQ basis revenue and
PAT would fall by 10.9% and 21.8% respectively.
Sector‐wise growth and margin expectations – Q4FY13 PL estimates
Revenue (%) PAT (%) EBITDA Margin (bps)
YoY QoQ YoY QoQ YoY QoQ
Agri Products & Chemicals (5.4) (17.5) (26.7) (15.1) (95) 239
Automobiles 3.1 (15.3) (6.3) (32.3) 11 (101)
Auto Ancillary (1.5) (2.3) (23.5) (10.6) (56) (71)
Banks 13.5 3.4 6.4 (2.5)
Capital Goods 1.7 (38.6) (3.9) (69.6) 16 (811)
Cement (4.6) (6.8) (32.9) (22.6) (622) (87)
Construction 8.1 (24.8) (0.7) (50.8) (43) (31)
Consumer Staples 14.4 3.7 13.8 6.7 52 128
Financial Services 23.0 (8.5) 23.7 (16.1)
Information Tech. 10.9 5.1 11.5 3.4 (67) 12
Metals (7.9) (17.0) (31.1) (41.0) (226) (347)
Offshore, S.B. & Ports (2.9) (10.1) (21.7) (40.2) (681) 455
Pharma 11.6 2.2 (91.2) (95.2) (9) 185
Power 6.9 (0.7) (5.5) 5.4 76 53
Real Estate 20.3 (4.6) (5.0) 161.8 (954) 447
Others 7.4 (15.9) NA (61.6) 152 (411)
PL Universe 3.7 (10.9) (6.2) (21.8) (18) (18)
Source: Company Data, PL Research
*EBITDA Margins are excluding BFSI
July 8, 2013 6