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Apr-Jun 2013 Earnings Preview
GMR Infrastructure
Rating
Accumulate
Price (Rs) 18
Target Price (Rs) 23
M/Cap (Rs bn) 68.9
Shares o/s (m) 3,892.1
Key Figures (Rs m)
Y/e March FY13 FY14E FY15E
Net Sales 98,719 131,618 154,525
EBITDA 23,952 32,137 35,892
Margin (%) 24.3 24.4 23.2
PAT (5,697) (2,627) 1,117
EPS (Rs) (1.5) (0.7) 0.3
Growth (%) (22.3) (53.9) (142.5)
RoE (%) (6.8) (3.3) 1.6
PE (x) (12.1) (26.2) 61.7
P / BV (x) 0.7 1.0 1.0
EV / E (x) 17.2 13.4 11.2
GMR declared the COD of the first unit of the Kamalanga 350MW project. GMR
Bajoli Holi Hydropower (180MWs), a step-down subsidiary of the company, has
achieved a financial tie-up with IDBI Bank, L&T Infrastructure Finance Company and
L&T Finance.
Quarterly Table (Rs m)
Y/e March
Q1
FY14E
Q1
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Q4
FY13
12M
FY14E
12M
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Net Sales 27,845 25,336 9.9 25,711 131,618 98,719 33.3
EBITDA 6,700 5,679 18.0 7,605 32,137 23,952 34.2
Margin (%) 24.1 22.4 165 bps 29.6 24.4 24.3 15 bps
Reported PAT (1,221) (943) 29.4 5,792 (2,627) 882 (397.8)
PAT (Excl. Ex Items) (1,221) (1,426) (14.4) (787) (2,627) (5,697) (53.9)
Operating Metrics
Airports (Rs m) 18,021 12,843 40.3 17,310 47,890 61,219 (21.8)
Power (Rs m) 5,012 7,463 (32.8) 5,089 52,455 24,208 116.7
Debt (Rs bn) 385 392 (1.8) 393 394 393 0.1
Int. as a % to sales 21.0 19.0 202 bps 23.7 17.0 21.3 (428)bps
Jaiprakash Associates
Rating
Accumulate
Price (Rs) 52
Target Price (Rs) 60
M/Cap (Rs bn) 115.5
Shares o/s (m) 2,219.1
Key Figures (Rs m)
Y/e March FY13 FY14E FY15E
Net Sales 132,087 145,856 166,751
EBITDA 31,755 34,266 39,205
Margin (%) 24.0 23.5 23.5
PAT 5,013 6,930 9,728
EPS (Rs) 2.3 3.1 4.4
Growth (%) (53.2) 38.2 40.4
RoE (%) 3.9 5.1 6.8
PE (x)* 6.0 4.4 3.1
P / BV (x) 0.9 0.8 0.8
EV / E (x) 10.5 9.0 7.7
*Adj. for Subs. Valn of Rs42/share
JPA’s cement dispatches for Q1FY14E are expected to be at 3.8m tonnes (excl. South
& Gujarat) as against 4.0m tonnes in Q4FY13, registering a de-growth of 5% QoQ.
We expect realizations to be flat QoQ at Rs206/bag. EBIT margins will be down
60bps on a QoQ basis; however, up by 270bps YoY. EPC will also see a de-growth of
5% YoY.
Quarterly Table (Rs m)
Y/e March
Q1
FY14E
Q1
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Q4
FY13
12M
FY14E
12M
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Net Sales 29,636 29,636 0.0 38,642 145,856 132,087 10.4
EBITDA 7,385 7,713 (4.3) 8,507 34,266 31,755 7.9
Margin (%) 24.9 26.0 (111)bps 22.0 23.5 24.0 (55)bps
Reported PAT 1,128 1,382 (18.4) 1,235 6,930 5,013 38.2
PAT (Excl. Ex Items) 1,128 1,382 (18.4) 1,235 6,930 5,013 38.2
Operating Metrics
Const. (Rs m) 11,452 12,160 (5.8) 15,327 59,500 53,143 12.0
Cement Prod. (Rs m) 15,660 15,629 0.2 16,363 71,081 60,459 17.6
Debt (Rs bn) 229 180 27.2 230 209 230 (9.3)
Int. as a % to sales 15.7 15.7 0 bps 14.2 12.6 15.2 (259)bps
EBIT per Tonne Rs 539 453 19.0 560 489 484 0.9
July 8, 2013 98