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Apr-Jun 2013 Earnings Preview
Lanco Infratech
Rating
Accumulate
Price (Rs) 7
Target Price (Rs) 13
M/Cap (Rs bn) 16.7
Shares o/s (m) 2,392.4
Perdaman has ended the litigation with Griffin,however Lanco would have to pay
around AUD9m as settlement charges. Lanco’s gas-based power plants are expected
to report low PLFs of sub-40% on account of drop in gas levels in KGD6. Overall, the
coal supply position has also not improved QoQ much and thus, Amarkantak and
Anapara’s PLFs have not improved.
Key Figures (Rs m)
Y/e March FY13 FY14E FY15E
Net Sales 137,388 165,162 185,004
EBITDA 25,820 31,822 35,518
Margin (%) 18.8 19.3 19.2
PAT (11,187) (6,998) 1,137
EPS (Rs) (4.7) (2.9) 0.5
Growth (%) 897.7 (37.4) (116.3)
RoE (%) (26.7) (20.9) 3.7
PE (x) (1.5) (2.4) 14.7
P / BV (x) 0.5 0.6 0.5
EV / E (x) 14.0 12.6 9.5
Quarterly Table (Rs m)
Y/e March
Q1
FY14E
Q1
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Q4
FY13
12M
FY14E
12M
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Net Sales 35,639 34,958 1.9 35,696 165,162 137,388 20.2
EBITDA 6,415 5,857 9.5 9,080 31,822 25,820 23.2
Margin (%) 18.0 16.8 125 bps 25.4 19.3 18.8 47 bps
Reported PAT (2,816) (4,412) (36.2) (31) (6,998) (11,051) (36.7)
PAT (Excl. Ex Items ) (2,816) (2,102) 33.9 (2,650) (6,998) (11,187) (37.4)
Operating Metrics
Project Dev. (Rs m) 13,412 16,782 (20.1) 14,760 55,327 53,822 2.8
Sale of Energy (Rs m) 18,012 21,305 (15.5) 17,728 103,392 86,626 19.4
Debt (Rs bn) 340 331 2.7 349 388 363 7.0
NHPC
Rating
Accumulate
Price (Rs) 19
Target Price (Rs) 22
M/Cap (Rs bn) 229.4
Shares o/s (m) 12,300.7
We are expecting generation of 6.1bn units, flat YoY. We are factoring in the
generation loss in Dhauliganga HEP in Uttarakhand on account of flooding in the
valleys. New plants like TLDP is still on a stabilising mode and will take time to
contribute meaningfully to the company.
Key Figures (Rs m)
Y/e March FY13 FY14E FY15E
Net Sales 52,052 59,116 65,480
EBITDA 32,270 37,983 44,373
Margin (%) 62.0 64.3 67.8
PAT 19,402 22,843 23,471
EPS (Rs) 1.6 1.9 1.9
Growth (%) (9.3) 17.7 2.7
RoE (%) 7.2 8.0 7.8
PE (x) 11.8 10.0 9.8
P / BV (x) 0.8 0.8 0.7
EV / E (x) 11.3 9.5 8.5
Quarterly Table (Rs m)
Y/e March
Q1
FY14E
Q1
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Q4
FY13
12M
FY14E
12M
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Net Sales 15,012 14,218 5.6 10,994 59,116 52,052 13.6
EBITDA 9,007 9,040 (0.4) 6,022 37,983 32,270 17.7
Margin (%) 60.0 63.6 (358)bps 54.8 64.3 62.0 226 bps
Reported PAT 5,778 6,699 (13.7) 5,833 22,843 23,483 (2.7)
PAT (Excl. Ex Items ) 5,778 6,451 (10.4) 3,500 22,843 19,402 17.7
Operating Metrics
Generation Mus 6,100 6,148 (0.8) 2,480 21,964 18,713 17.4
July 8, 2013 157