will government's massive surge in investment ... - Myiris.com

Apr-Jun 2013 Earnings Preview
Reliance Infrastructure
Rating
Accumulate
Price (Rs) 369
Target Price (Rs) 482
M/Cap (Rs bn) 97.0
Shares o/s (m) 263.0
RInfra’s Mumbai Metro sucessfully conducted a trial run for 3kms. The company has
terminated the Delhi Metro SPV on the grounds that DMRC, who has designed and
built the same, has not rectified the substantial defects in the civil structure within
the period prescribed under the Concession Agreement. We expect EPC revenues to
fall 17% YoY. Power sales will see a positive growth on the back of higher tariffs YoY
in NDPL.
Key Figures (Rs m)
Y/e March FY13 FY14E FY15E
Net Sales 222,276 226,567 255,626
EBITDA 28,117 31,366 38,713
Margin (%) 12.6 13.8 15.1
PAT 17,199 17,115 19,523
EPS (Rs) 65.4 65.1 74.2
Growth (%) 18.9 (0.5) 14.1
RoE (%) 6.8 6.3 6.8
PE (x) 5.6 5.7 5.0
P / BV (x) 0.4 0.3 0.3
EV / E (x) 11.8 11.6 9.7
Quarterly Table (Rs m)
Y/e March
Q1
FY14E
Q1
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Q4
FY13
12M
FY14E
12M
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Net Sales 52,255 53,411 (2.2) 61,132 226,567 222,276 1.9
EBITDA 6,793 6,298 7.9 7,743 31,366 28,117 11.6
Margin (%) 13.0 11.8 121 bps 12.7 13.8 12.6 119 bps
Reported PAT 3,065 4,120 (25.6) 7,214 17,115 22,468 (23.8)
PAT (Excl. Ex Items ) 3,065 4,120 (25.6) 4,934 17,115 17,199 (0.5)
Operating Metrics
Electricity (Rs m) 35,412 33,115 6.9 37,284 144 142 1.5
EPC (Rs m) 15,489 18,694 (17.1) 22,964 66 77 (15.0)
Debt (Rs bn) 240 240 0.0 241 288 241 19.6
Reliance Power
Rating
Accumulate
Price (Rs) 71
Target Price (Rs) 79
M/Cap (Rs bn) 200.0
Shares o/s (m) 2,805.1
Post Sasan, UMPP declared COD of its Unit 1 of 660MWs in March 2013. CERC has
ruled that the project has not commenced commercial operations since it did not
meet the set testing parameters. The company has maintained that the MOU has
stated no particular duration in the 1 st year of plant to be declared commercially
operational. We are expecting a 5% growth in generation QoQ.
Key Figures (Rs m)
Y/e March FY13 FY14E FY15E
Net Sales 49,266 63,631 74,641
EBITDA 17,129 28,178 34,124
Margin (%) 34.8 44.3 45.7
PAT 10,114 11,897 12,233
EPS (Rs) 3.6 4.2 4.4
Growth (%) 16.7 17.6 2.8
RoE (%) 5.6 6.2 6.1
PE (x) 19.8 16.8 16.3
P / BV (x) 1.1 1.0 1.0
EV / E (x) 26.2 18.8 18.0
Quarterly Table (Rs m)
Y/e March
Q1
FY14E
Q1
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Q4
FY13
12M
FY14E
12M
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Net Sales 12,450 11,358 9.6 12,478 63,631 49,266 29.2
EBITDA 4,358 3,649 19.4 4,626 28,178 17,129 64.5
Margin (%) 35.0 32.1 287 bps 37.1 44.3 34.8 952 bps
Reported PAT 2,373 2,395 (0.9) 2,660 11,897 10,114 17.6
PAT (Excl. Ex Items ) 2,373 2,395 (0.9) 2,660 11,897 10,114 17.6
Operating Metrics
Units Sold (m) 1,953 2,055 (5.0) 1,833 28,126 7,952 253.7
July 8, 2013 159