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Apr-Jun 2013 Earnings Preview
Cummins India
Rating
Accumulate
Price (Rs) 435
Target Price (Rs) 548
M/Cap (Rs bn) 120.5
Shares o/s (m) 277.2
We expect the sales to be down 12% YoY on account of a high base last year and
moderation in South-based demand which was driving bulk on demand. We expect
margins to be under pressure due to moderating demand in both, domestic and
export market, leading to unfavourable product mix and cross-corporate charges of
~Rs150m/quarter.
Key Figures (Rs m)
Y/e March FY13 FY14E FY15E
Net Sales 45,894 50,877 57,719
EBITDA 8,349 8,903 10,389
Margin (%) 18.2 17.5 18.0
PAT 6,846 7,012 8,181
EPS (Rs) 24.7 25.3 29.5
Growth (%) 26.8 2.4 16.7
RoE (%) 30.5 27.8 28.9
PE (x) 17.6 17.2 14.7
P / BV (x) 5.0 4.5 4.0
EV / E (x) 14.0 13.2 11.2
Quarterly Table (Rs m)
Y/e March
Q1
FY14E
Q1
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Q4
FY13
12M
FY14E
12M
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Net Sales 11,081 12,588 (12.0) 11,543 50,877 45,894 10.9
EBITDA 1,811 2,325 (22.1) 1,939 8,903 8,349 6.6
Margin (%) 16.3 18.5 (212)bps 16.8 17.5 18.2 (69)bps
Reported PAT 1,501 1,806 (16.9) 1,886 7,012 6,846 2.4
PAT (Excl. Ex Items ) 1,501 1,806 (16.9) 1,886 7,012 6,846 2.4
Operating Metrics
RM % Sales 65.0 63.3 164 bps 63.0 64.0 62.9 108 bps
% Full year Sales 21.8 27.4 (565)bps 25.2 - - NA
Kalpataru Power Transmission
Rating
Accumulate
Price (Rs) 65
Target Price (Rs) 106
M/Cap (Rs bn) 10.0
Shares o/s (m) 153.5
We expect the sales growth to be 8% YoY at Rs7.5bn. Margins are likely to be under
pressure due to execution of low margin order and forex losses. Order inflow is likely
to be strong as the company has managed good orders from both, domestic and
international markets.
Key Figures (Rs m)
Y/e March FY13 FY14E FY15E
Net Sales 33,354 37,590 43,228
EBITDA 3,265 3,909 4,495
Margin (%) 9.8 10.4 10.4
PAT 1,421 1,893 2,219
EPS (Rs) 9.3 12.3 14.5
Growth (%) (13.8) 33.2 17.2
RoE (%) 7.9 9.8 10.6
PE (x) 7.0 5.3 4.5
P / BV (x) 0.5 0.5 0.5
EV / E (x) 4.5 4.1 3.5
Quarterly Table (Rs m)
Y/e March
Q1
FY14E
Q1
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Q4
FY13
12M
FY14E
12M
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Net Sales 7,554 6,994 8.0 10,316 37,590 33,354 12.7
EBITDA 662 704 (6.0) 997 3,909 3,265 19.7
Margin (%) 8.8 10.1 (130)bps 9.7 10.4 9.8 61 bps
Reported PAT 232 274 (15.3) 486 1,893 1,421 33.2
PAT (Excl. Ex Items) 232 274 (15.3) 486 1,893 1,421 33.2
Operating Metrics
Order Book (Rs m) 72,746 60,320 20.6 68,000 52,583 57,786 (9.0)
Order Flow (Rs m) 12,300 6,600 86.4 8,000 33,154 30,140 10.0
Interest % sales 4.2 4.5 (26)bps 2.9 3.4 3.7 (23)bps
July 8, 2013 84