will government's massive surge in investment ... - Myiris.com

Apr-Jun 2013 Earnings Preview
Oberoi Realty
Rating
Accumulate
Price (Rs) 205
Target Price (Rs) 274
M/Cap (Rs bn) 67.1
Shares o/s (m) 328.2
We expect a drop in sales, firstly on account of a general slowdown leading to sales
decline at Exquisite, coupled with a delay in receiving the IOD for Esquire and
secondly on account of exhaustion of inventory at Splendour. On the commercial
side, Commerz II remains untenanted due to the slowdown in commercial offtake. In
fact, the company is considering options to convert this project into a residential
complex. Media reports suggest a tie-up with hotel chain ‘Ritz Carlton’ for the Worli
Oasis project. However, the company is yet to confirm the same. Environmental
clearance issue at Mulund remains status quo on account of SC being on a vacation.
Key Figures (Rs m)
Y/e March FY13 FY14E FY15E
Net Sales 10,476 11,557 16,778
EBITDA 6,121 6,685 9,803
Margin (%) 58.4 57.8 58.4
PAT 5,049 5,215 7,308
EPS (Rs) 15.4 15.9 22.3
Growth (%) 9.0 3.3 40.1
RoE (%) 12.8 12.0 15.3
PE (x) 13.3 12.9 9.2
P / BV (x) 1.6 1.5 1.3
EV / E (x) 9.2 8.7 6.2
Quarterly Table (Rs m)
Y/e March
Q1
FY14E
Q1
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Q4
FY13
12M
FY14E
12M
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Net Sales 2,750 1,999 37.6 3,039 11,557 10,476 10.3
EBITDA 1,565 1,139 37.4 1,779 6,685 6,121 9.2
Margin (%) 56.9 57.0 (7)bps 58.5 57.8 58.4 (59)bps
Reported PAT 1,280 1,008 27.0 1,452 5,215 5,049 3.3
PAT (Excl. Ex Items) 1,280 1,008 27.0 1,451 5,215 5,049 3.3
Operating Metrics
Sales Volume (msf) 0.1 0.1 (19.3) 0.1 0.9 0.5 77.8
Sales Value (Rs m) 1,650 2,076 (20.5) 2,227 19,939 8,687 129.5
Sales Realization (Rs/sf) 16,500 16,761 (1.6) 18,813 22,594 17,500 29.1
Peninsula Land
Rating
Accumulate
Price (Rs) 40
Target Price (Rs) 52
M/Cap (Rs bn) 11.1
Shares o/s (m) 279.5
At Peninsula Business Park, the company has a small inventory of ~Rs2bn to be sold.
Besides, PENL currently has four projects under construction, which includes their
developments at Nashik, Goa, Khandala and Pune. The company has sold 0.57m sq.ft
across these projects, amounting to ~Rs2.5bn. Currently, only Nashik has reached
the revenue recognition threshold, while the other three are likely to reach the
target during the course of the financial year.
Key Figures (Rs m)
Y/e March FY13 FY14E FY15E
Net Sales 7,412 6,549 7,310
EBITDA 1,966 2,217 2,561
Margin (%) 26.5 33.9 35.0
PAT 1,953 1,667 2,133
EPS (Rs) 7.0 6.0 7.6
Growth (%) 29.0 (14.7) 27.9
RoE (%) 12.3 9.8 11.7
PE (x) 5.7 6.6 5.2
P / BV (x) 0.7 0.6 0.6
EV / E (x) 8.6 7.4 6.5
Quarterly Table (Rs m)
Y/e March
Q1
FY14E
Q1
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Q4
FY13
12M
FY14E
12M
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Net Sales 805 1,334 (39.7) 1,060 6,549 7,412 (11.6)
EBITDA 220 465 (52.7) 74 2,217 1,966 12.8
Margin (%) 27.3 34.9 (753)bps 7.0 33.9 26.5 734 bps
Reported PAT 326 419 (22.3) 358 1,667 1,953 (14.7)
PAT (Excl. Ex Items) 326 419 (22.3) 358 1,667 1,953 (14.7)
Operating Metrics
Peninsula Business Park 750 1,210 (38.0) 900 360 6,100 (94.1)
Ashok Gardens — 50 — 55 — — —
Others 55 80 (31.3) 105 — 394 —
July 8, 2013 171