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Apr-Jul 2013 Earnings Preview
Tata Motors
Rating
BUY
Price (Rs) 288
Target Price (Rs) 335
M/Cap (Rs bn) 959.8
Shares o/s (m) 3,335.1
Key Figures (Rs m)
Y/e March FY13 FY14E FY15E
Net Sales 1,888,176 2,193,688 2,521,868
EBITDA 265,890 323,030 378,707
Margin (%) 14.1 14.7 15.0
PAT 105,517 119,220 139,562
EPS (Rs) 31.6 35.7 41.8
Growth (%) (22.0) 13.0 17.1
RoE (%) 28.2 25.6 24.9
PE (x) 9.1 8.1 6.9
P / BV (x) 2.3 1.9 1.6
EV / E (x) 4.8 4.0 3.4
On a standalone basis, M&HCV volumes de-grew by 11.2% YoY, whereas the LCV
segment grew by 6.7%. On account of 18.9% YoY decline in overall volumes and
higher discounts in the M&HCV segment, EBITDA margins are likely to be marginal at
2.4%. As a result, we expect a loss of Rs4.3bn in the standalone business. JLR
volumes improved by 9.7% YoY led by Jaguar which reported a ~64% YoY growth in
volumes. On account of product mix in favour of the New ‘Range Rover’ and robust
Jaguar volumes, we expect margins to expand by 140bps YoY to 15.9% at JLR.
Quarterly Table (Rs m)
Y/e March
Q1
FY14E
Q1
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Q4
FY13
12M
FY14E
12M
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Net Sales 458,286 433,236 5.8 560,016 2,193,688 1,888,176 16.2
EBITDA 63,564 62,547 1.6 83,294 323,030 265,890 21.5
Margin (%) 13.9 14.4 (57)bps 14.9 14.7 14.1 64 bps
Reported PAT 22,070 20,831 5.9 39,456 119,220 99,704 19.6
PAT (Excl. Ex Items ) 22,070 26,858 (17.8) 39,241 119,220 105,517 13.0
Operating Metrics
Stnd. Topline (Rs m) 82,191 105,864 (22.4) 110,678 487,977 447,657 9.0
Stnd. EBITDA (Rs m) 1,957 7,734 (74.7) 4,021 28,356 21,427 32.3
JLR Volumes (nos) 91,584 83,452 9.7 116,340 420,000 372,062 12.9
JLR Topline (Rs m) 356,144 312,097 14.1 429,556 1,597,699 1,357,338 17.7
JLR EBITDA (Rs m) 56,699 45,322 25.1 76,254 255,088 213,584 19.4
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