will government's massive surge in investment ... - Myiris.com

Apr-Jun 2013 Earnings Preview
Hindustan Zinc
Rating
BUY
Price (Rs) 101
Target Price (Rs) 150
M/Cap (Rs bn) 427.6
Shares o/s (m) 4,225.3
Key Figures (Rs m)
Y/e March FY13 FY14E FY15E
Net Sales 125,257 131,935 137,418
EBITDA 62,585 67,448 69,418
Margin (%) 50.0 51.1 50.5
PAT 68,484 66,644 70,830
EPS (Rs) 16.2 15.8 16.8
Growth (%) 25.4 (2.7) 6.3
RoE (%) 23.2 19.2 17.8
PE (x) 6.2 6.4 6.0
P / BV (x) 1.3 1.1 1.0
EV / E (x) 5.7 4.6 3.9
Net revenue is expected to decline ~25.4% QoQ due to 1) 6% and 18% fall in zinclead
and silver realisations, 2) 5% and 16% fall in refined zinc-lead and silver volumes
and 3) no sale of concentrate in quarter against 61000 tonnes in LQ. Thanks to lower
volumes and realisations, both EBITDA and PAT are expected to decline 32% QoQ at
Rs14.1bn and Rs14.7bn, respectively.
Quarterly Table (Rs m)
Y/e March
Q1
FY14E
Q1
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Q4
FY13
12M
FY14E
12M
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Net Sales 28,724 27,127 5.9 38,503 131,935 125,257 5.3
EBITDA 14,054 13,935 0.9 20,576 67,448 62,585 7.8
Margin (%) 48.9 51.4 (244)bps 53.4 51.1 50.0 116 bps
Reported PAT 14,744 15,813 (6.8) 21,658 66,644 68,330 (2.5)
PAT (Excl. Ex Items) 14,744 15,813 (6.8) 21,818 66,644 68,484 (2.7)
Operating Metrics
Total Refined metal-tns 203,000 189,000 7.4 214,500 819,800 792,403 3.5
Silver Sales Vol. (kg) 89,880 73,000 23.1 107,000 427,350 374,000 14.3
Zinc (US$)-LME / tonne 1,843 1,935 (4.8) 2,030 1,950 1,948 0.1
Silver (Rs / Kg) 47,103 53,151 (11.4) 57,103 45,900 55,670 (17.6)
Jindal Steel & Power
Rating
Accumulate
Price (Rs) 222
Target Price (Rs) 271
M/Cap (Rs bn) 207.3
Shares o/s (m) 934.8
Key Figures (Rs m)
Y/e March FY13 FY14E FY15E
Net Sales 195,540 226,746 284,473
EBITDA 64,159 68,670 86,285
Margin (%) 32.8 30.3 30.3
PAT 34,842 29,849 30,816
EPS (Rs) 37.3 31.9 33.0
Growth (%) (14.2) (14.3) 3.2
RoE (%) 17.7 13.1 12.0
PE (x) 5.9 6.9 6.7
P / BV (x) 1.0 0.9 0.8
EV / E (x) 6.6 7.0 5.9
Thanks to 3.6% increase in realisations QoQ, fall in standalone revenue would be arrested
to 13.4% QoQ, given the 21.2% fall in steel volumes and 20% drop in pellet volumes.
Standalone EBITDA is expected to decline 5.1% QoQ at Rs9.37bn, while, PAT is expected to
decline 36% due to higher interest cost and tax. JPL is expected to report 5% QoQ growth in
PAT at Rs3.0bn on account of 2% growth in volumes and lower cost. Consolidated EBITDA is
expected to fall 4.8% QoQ at Rs14.5bn, while PAT is expected to decline 10% at Rs6.85bn.
Quarterly Table (Rs m)
Y/e March
Q1
FY14E
Q1
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Q4
FY13
12M
FY14E
12M
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Net Sales 49,507 46,804 5.8 55,833 226,746 195,540 16.0
EBITDA 14,503 15,722 (7.8) 15,242 68,670 64,159 7.0
Margin (%) 29.3 33.6 (430)bps 27.3 30.3 32.8 (253)bps
Reported PAT 6,855 3,853 77.9 7,602 29,849 29,101 2.6
PAT (Excl. Ex Items) 6,855 8,300 (17.4) 7,602 29,849 34,842 (14.3)
Operating Metrics
Steel Sales Vol. (Tonnes) 716,300 561,337 27.6 908,736 3,331,319 2,808,959 18.6
JSPL-Pwr (m kwh) 600 584 2.7 517 4,360 2,576 69.2
Standalone EBITDA 9,372 10,185 (8.0) 9,878 46,327 45,871 1.0
Standalone PAT 3,046 4,003 (23.9) 4,775 20,075 23,268 (13.7)
JPL-Kwh s old (m) 1,996 1,970 1.4 1,921 7,653 7,254 5.5
JPL-Rate / Kwh 3.2 3.8 (15.0) 3.2 3.2 3.2 0.0
JPL-PAT 2,965 3,143 (5.7) 2,822 13,225 11,822 11.9
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