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Apr-Jun 2013 Earnings Preview
Q1FY14 Performance – Including one‐offs
YoY margin improvement
YoY growth (%)
(bps)
Revenue EBITDA PAT EBITDA PAT
Sun Pharma 23 11 -6 -440 NA
Cipla 4 -8 -18 -300 -450
Dr. Reddy's Lab 26 41 27 230 10
Ranbaxy -16 -48 NA -590 NA
Lupin 17 22 17 110 10
Cadila 3 -15 -13 -350 -230
Large generic companies 9.5 0.5 1.4 ‐223 ‐50
Glenmark 17 15 80 -50 400
Aurobindo 41 123 NA 590 NA
Jubilant Life 14 -12 -30 -500 -380
Mid‐cap companies 24 42 16.7 13.3 6.7
Aggregate 16.8 21.3 9.1 ‐270 ‐21.7
Source: Company Data, PL Research
US to be key growth driver in absence of domestic sales growth in
Q1FY14E
We notice that US generic sales to be dominant growth driver while the companies
are struggling to maintain growth in domestic formulations due to structural issues.
Aurobindo, Dr Reddy’s and Lupin to be benefitted from steady flow of new approvals
in US while Glenmark and Ranbaxy to gain benefit from core sales in growth in
Q1FY14E.
We believe that US remains a key growth driver for most of the Indian companies in
the medium term. The table below gives our expectation of the US sales growth of
our universe Q1FY13 the quarter v/s the overall top-line growth of those companies.
US lead growth for companies during the quarter
Base US business growth (%) Overall top‐line growth (%)
Sun Pharma 7 11
Dr. Reddy's Lab 54 26
Lupin 46 17
Cadila 5 3
Ranbaxy 53 14
Glenmark 18 17
Source: Company Data, PL Research
* Excluding Irom acquisition. ^ Excluding Biochem Acquisition
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